Waldman's Weekly Gut Check (1 Viewer)

[Matt Waldman]

The Weekly Gut Check-150

Second-Half Wonders

One of the more compelling ways to identify players on the rise is to find guys who have a significantly stronger second-half performance for the previous season compared to the first half. I call these sleeper and breakout candidates Second-Half Wonders. Here's the methodology:

* I measure the player's Fpts/Gm for their first eight and last eight games.

* I calculate that player's percent increase in production during his second half of the season compared to the first.

* If that player's productivity increases at least 20% during his second half, he's a potential Second-Half Wonder.

 

[Jackal King]

Matt...I read the article last week and really liked it. Very interesting, and useful.

I was curious if the inverse of the study was also true? Meaning...those players that had a 20% decrease in productivity over the second half of the season, typically followed it up with a year that approximated the way they finished the prior season.

It certainly stands to reason that if you finish weak...the odds are against you the following season.

 

[Matt Waldman]

Great question. I think that's worth looking at - I have some pieces scheduled already for the next month, but at the very least, I'll examine it late in the season for next year. Thanks for the idea.

 

[greyone]

I use a similar study in fantasy basketball. The last month of regular season is a good-great indicator for a) breakout candidate b) players entering their prime c) stud maintaining their stud'ly ness 4) declining players who may present some late round value.

Very effective.

Great article. Couldn't find the website link after the email blast.

 

[King of the Wolfies]

I was surprised to see Pierre Thomas listed as a non factor. He reminds me of Barber because he doesnt need many touches to put up good fantasy numbers.

 

[LHUCKS]

you've listed a ton of my sleepers here. I peform a similar analysis every year, you'll see several of these players on my survivor leagues that I've drafted thus far. This is probably one of the best "sleeper" articles I have ever read this early in any of the seasons I've been into FF.

Very well done.

 

[LHUCKS]

I consider two other factors when looking at trends up or down

1) I take into account schedule strength when performing a macro analysis like this...when only looking at nine games and a RB played two of those games against Rams defense...you need to be careful.

2) I also take into account meaningless games, so watch out for playoff teams that limit their studs touches in the final weeks.

 

[Jackal King]

An off topic aside....I just took a look at the FBG Expert Rankings...and Matt isn't kidding when he says that he's going to challenge conventional group think with his fantasy perspectives. He's the lone orange in a barrel of apples.

 

[Kuz]

An off topic aside....I just took a look at the FBG Expert Rankings...and Matt isn't kidding when he says that he's going to challenge conventional group think with his fantasy perspectives. He's the lone orange in a barrel of apples.

no kidding. I just saw he had one RB ranked in the low 20's that is most likely a consensus # 1 or 2 pick. Not sure how he could be ranked that low unless you're predicting some type of injury.. I do enjoy looking at some different rankings but that one did come up as weird..