Warren Buffett Offers 1 Billion Dollar Reward for Perfect Bracket (1 Viewer)

[lbouchard]

http://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-billion-dollar-bracket-2014-1

Obviously early, but I consider myself a lock for this.

 

[Brony]

again?!?

 

[lbouchard]

#### Honda. Someone beat me to it as I was posting. Mods, please delete.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Man... talk about a cheap way to collect e-mail addys. Everyone on the planet will play and the odds anyone hits the final bracket are effectively zero. And you could buy an insurance policy for $100 (totally made up number) on the off-chance someone flukes into it.

 

[jon_mx]

As soon as the pairings are announced, I am going to start inputting my 9,000,000,000,000,000,000 brackets to guarantee i have a winner!!!!

Easiest billion $$$$$$ ever! I will split it with someone if they want to fill out half the brackets with me.

 

[culdeus]

Just getting the first two rounds should be worth at least 100 Mil.

 

[Fennis]

Is there a worse site than businessinsider.com? Its got to be up there.

 

[sports_fan]

Is there a worse site than businessinsider.com? Its got to be up there.

healthcare.gov

 

[shader]

Take the lump sum guys!

 

[lod01]

Top 20 brackets get $100k each.

Doing a little research. Pick up to 10 upsets in the 1st round, at least one of the 5 vs 12 seed games.

All #1 seeds win 1st round every year.

1st round upsets by year:

2008 - 8

2009 - 9

2010 - 10

2011 - 7

2012 - 10

2013 - 10

http://www.quickenloansbracket.com/rules/rules.html

The "Entry Window" for the Challenge opens ("Start Date") at 12:01 a.m. U.S. Eastern Standard Time ("EST") on March 3, 2014. At that time, you may complete the "Registration Process" and begin creating your Challenge Entry Bracket (defined below) if you wish, but you will not be able to populate your Challenge Entry Bracket with your picks for the Tournament (your "Picks") until after the Tournament seedings have been announced on Sunday, March 16, 2014 at approximately 6:30 p.m. US Eastern Daylight Time ("EDT") (the "Seeding Announcement"). The period between the Seeding Announcement and the end of the "Entry Window" is referred to in these Official Rules as the "Bracket Submission Period." The Entry Window will close at 1:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday, March 20, 2014. CHALLENGE ENTRY BRACKETS WILL ONLY BE ACCEPTED IN THE CHALLENGE FROM THE FIRST FIFTEEN MILLION (15,000,000) ENTRANTS WHO COMPLETE THE REGISTRATION PROCESS (AS DETERMINED BY YAHOO).

 

[sporthenry]

Of all the years, this will definitely not be the first that someone gets the perfect bracket. At least without the help of a computer.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

i thought that said breakfast and i was hoping he was going a little crazy.

 

[jon_mx]

Of all the years, this will definitely not be the first that someone gets the perfect bracket. At least without the help of a computer.

If everyone on the planet filled out a 1000 brackets, Warren would still be pretty safe on his offer.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Yep. And limiting it to 15,000,000 entries makes it virtually certain he won't have to pay.

 

[sporthenry]

Of all the years, this will definitely not be the first that someone gets the perfect bracket. At least without the help of a computer.

If everyone on the planet filled out a 1000 brackets, Warren would still be pretty safe on his offer.

Under the assumption that every game is a coin flip, which it isn't. I think a mathematics guy said it was closer to 1 in 130 billion. Still a big number but much more manageable. I'm sure a few computers and 4 days could crank out 130 billion different brackets.

 

[jon_mx]

Of all the years, this will definitely not be the first that someone gets the perfect bracket. At least without the help of a computer.

If everyone on the planet filled out a 1000 brackets, Warren would still be pretty safe on his offer.

Under the assumption that every game is a coin flip, which it isn't. I think a mathematics guy said it was closer to 1 in 130 billion. Still a big number but much more manageable. I'm sure a few computers and 4 days could crank out 130 billion different brackets.

That is probably true. You can throw out the 1 vs. 16 games and pretty much the 2 vs. 15 games. That gets you down to 2^55. Even the 1 vs. 8/9 and 3 vs. 14 are almost a sure thing. So down to 2^47 pretty quickly.

 

[Cyclones]

The odds of this happening are like 1 in several million trillion I think. I heard a guy on ESPN radio say that if you filled out a trillion brackets per second starting from the time of the pairings until the tipoff of the first game, you'd have a 1 in 837 chance of having a flawless bracket, assuming every bracket you filled out was unique. That may have included the play in games, I'm not sure....but either way, no way this is happening. You'd have a better chance of winning 2 consecutive Power Ball jackpots.

 

[jon_mx]

Of all the years, this will definitely not be the first that someone gets the perfect bracket. At least without the help of a computer.

If everyone on the planet filled out a 1000 brackets, Warren would still be pretty safe on his offer.

Under the assumption that every game is a coin flip, which it isn't. I think a mathematics guy said it was closer to 1 in 130 billion. Still a big number but much more manageable. I'm sure a few computers and 4 days could crank out 130 billion different brackets.

I wod kind of like to see his work on this. I am thinking you could only get down to 130 billion to 1 if you picked all favorites. But that would be the odds for just one case only. All other brackets would have higher odds. If you filled out 130 billion different brackets with the best odds, I doubt you would be anywhere close to having a 50-50 chance at winning. I think his 130 billion to 1 is best case, but when he calculates those odds out over multiple brackets he is making an erroneous assumption.

 

[Cyclones]

Of all the years, this will definitely not be the first that someone gets the perfect bracket. At least without the help of a computer.

If everyone on the planet filled out a 1000 brackets, Warren would still be pretty safe on his offer.

Under the assumption that every game is a coin flip, which it isn't. I think a mathematics guy said it was closer to 1 in 130 billion. Still a big number but much more manageable. I'm sure a few computers and 4 days could crank out 130 billion different brackets.

I wod kind of like to see his work on this. I am thinking you could only get down to 130 billion to 1 if you picked all favorites. But that would be the odds for just one case only. All other brackets would have higher odds. If you filled out 130 billion different brackets with the best odds, I doubt you would be anywhere close to having a 50-50 chance at winning. I think his 130 billion to 1 is best case, but when he calculates those odds out over multiple brackets he is making an erroneous assumption.

Yeah, the odds are nowhere near this good.

 

[lod01]

Currently tied for 1st place. That $1B is right within reach.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

i thought that said breakfast and i was hoping he was going a little crazy.

Warren Buffet should really open up his own restaurant chain.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Powerball is easy pickings compared to this. Spend a couple bucks and save the hassle.

 

[lod01]

Powerball is easy pickings compared to this. Spend a couple bucks and save the hassle.

Buffett Challenge. Spend zero have a 0.000000000000000000000000000000001% chance of winning 1$B, have a shot at finishing in the top 20 and winning 100K and spend zero bucks doing so. I'm in.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Powerball is easy pickings compared to this. Spend a couple bucks and save the hassle.

Buffett Challenge. Spend zero have a 0.000000000000000000000000000000001% chance of winning 1$B, have a shot at finishing in the top 20 and winning 100K and spend zero bucks doing so. I'm in.

Ok, the top 20 thing does make it better.

 

[lod01]

Powerball is easy pickings compared to this. Spend a couple bucks and save the hassle.

Buffett Challenge. Spend zero have a 0.000000000000000000000000000000001% chance of winning 1$B, have a shot at finishing in the top 20 and winning 100K and spend zero bucks doing so. I'm in.

Ok, the top 20 thing does make it better.

Even without it, I would be in. It takes a few minutes to fill out. I'm in for anything that is free and I can win $.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Powerball is easy pickings compared to this. Spend a couple bucks and save the hassle.

Buffett Challenge. Spend zero have a 0.000000000000000000000000000000001% chance of winning 1$B, have a shot at finishing in the top 20 and winning 100K and spend zero bucks doing so. I'm in.

Ok, the top 20 thing does make it better.

Even without it, I would be in. It takes a few minutes to fill out. I'm in for anything that is free and I can win $.

I dunno. Somebody ends up winning powerball, this thing I don't think so.

But if you do hit it, don't forget your buddy Leroy.

 

[dgreen]

What's the formula (assuming coin flips)? I was thinking it was:

2^32+4^16+8^8+16^4+32^2+64^1 = 8,606,778,432

That's pretty unlikely, but sounds like others are saying it's much higher?

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

What's the formula (assuming coin flips)? I was thinking it was:

2^32+4^16+8^8+16^4+32^2+64^1 = 8,606,778,432

That's pretty unlikely, but sounds like others are saying it's much higher?

(1/2)^63

 

[Sarnoff]

What's the formula (assuming coin flips)? I was thinking it was:

2^32+4^16+8^8+16^4+32^2+64^1 = 8,606,778,432

That's pretty unlikely, but sounds like others are saying it's much higher?

Technically, there are 63 games and you need 'em all right. But taking out the 1 vs 16s as automatics and you only need to pick 59 right.

 

[Sarnoff]

I picked Dayton over Ohio State. Hang on guys!

 

[dgreen]

What's the formula (assuming coin flips)? I was thinking it was:

2^32+4^16+8^8+16^4+32^2+64^1 = 8,606,778,432

That's pretty unlikely, but sounds like others are saying it's much higher?

Technically, there are 63 games and you need 'em all right. But taking out the 1 vs 16s as automatics and you only need to pick 59 right.

I have all 63 games, but I thought it should be done round by round.

There are 2 teams that can win each game of the 32 games in round 1, so that's 2^32. But then I was thinking round 2 has 4 teams that can win each game (prior to round 1 starting) and there are 16 of those games, so that round would be 4^16. And so on.

But I certainly wasn't confident in this method. I just assumed it had to be harder than the simple x^63.

 

[lod01]

What's the formula (assuming coin flips)? I was thinking it was:

2^32+4^16+8^8+16^4+32^2+64^1 = 8,606,778,432

That's pretty unlikely, but sounds like others are saying it's much higher?

Technically, there are 63 games and you need 'em all right. But taking out the 1 vs 16s as automatics and you only need to pick 59 right.

That is correct. No #1 has ever lost round 1. On top of that it is less than the 9 quintrillion combos. Throw out any combo that has a 16 seed in ANY game, 13 to 15 seeds in any game past round 2. 12 seeds past sweet 16, etc. That's a lot of combos. Throw out all 15 seeds in round 2, etc.

Still as close as you can get to impossible.

I picked Dayton over Ohio State. Hang on guys!

Everyone's talking about that one so I stuck with the ButtFlies winning that game. Even my dad called saying what bout Dayton.

 

[shader]

Well I know the odds were stacked against me, but I didn't even make it to Thursday night. :(

The dream is over

 

[Sarnoff]

1 for 1. I'm selling 1/1000th shares of my billion dollar bracket for $1000 each. PM me for info.

 

[Franknbeans]

I'm out.

slaps money on table

 

[fantasycurse42]

1 in 9.2 quintillion - Sounds promising.

 

[Ignoramus]

1 for 1. I'm selling 1/1000th shares of my billion dollar bracket for $1000 each. PM me for info.

I'll give you $0.25 for a 50% stake (you absorb the paypal fees). This is my final offer and it expires 30 minutes from the time of this post.

 

[lod01]

####### ButtFlies. Why the hell did I pick them. I'm out. hate those mf'ing losers.

 

[Fennis]

1 for 1. I'm selling 1/1000th shares of my billion dollar bracket for $1000 each. PM me for info.

I'll give you $0.25 for a 50% stake (you absorb the paypal fees). This is my final offer and it expires 30 minutes from the time of this post.

.26 cents

 

[lod01]

1 in 9.2 quintillion - Sounds promising.

0 in 9.2 Q for me.

 

[QuizGuy66]

1 in 9.2 quintillion - Sounds promising.

0 in 9.2 Q for me.

me too

-QG

 

[Sarnoff]

1 for 1. I'm selling 1/1000th shares of my billion dollar bracket for $1000 each. PM me for info.

I'll give you $0.25 for a 50% stake (you absorb the paypal fees). This is my final offer and it expires 30 minutes from the time of this post.

No. 2 for 2 so far. Price is now 1/1000th for $1050.

 

[fantasycurse42]

I don't get where the 9.2 quintillion number comes from, but it was in the original article announcing the challenge...

Shouldn't the actual number be .5 to the 63rd power?

 

[Ballstein]

With Dayton winning, I'd say more than half of the Warren buffet sweepstakes participants haven been eliminated on the opening game results.

 

[Sinn Fein]

:slapsmoneyoncounter:

I'm out.

 

[CBusAlex]

There are 2 teams that can win each game of the 32 games in round 1, so that's 2^32. But then I was thinking round 2 has 4 teams that can win each game (prior to round 1 starting) and there are 16 of those games, so that round would be 4^16. And so on.

For each set of first round picks, there are only two possible teams that can win in the second round, so you can do 50% for every round.

Doing 2^32, 4^26, etc would include brackets that have Dayton winning in the first round but Ohio State winning in the second, which is impossible.

 

[lod01]

I don't get where the 9.2 quintillion number comes from, but it was in the original article announcing the challenge...

Shouldn't the actual number be .5 to the 63rd power?

9.2 quintillion combinations. It's in plenty of articles.

 

[Sarnoff]

3-for-3. The dream lives!

 

[lod01]

3-for-3. The dream lives!

Split????

 

[Sarnoff]

I don't get where the 9.2 quintillion number comes from, but it was in the original article announcing the challenge...

Shouldn't the actual number be .5 to the 63rd power?

9.2 quintillion combinations. It's in plenty of articles.

Chosen at random, yes, but some math nerd figured out if you use an average fan's knowledge of the teams, you can knock it down to 1 in 128 billion. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pdnxTr6hG14