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Warrick Dunn = Value (1 Viewer)

Joe T

Footballguy
This guy is the biggest value on the board at this point. I'm not in love with his production at all, but his production for where he is drafted is pure gold.Here's a guy currently ranked in the FBG concensus rankings as the #25 ranked running back behind the likes of JJ Arrington, Carnell Williams, Chris Brown, Lamont Jordan, Tatum Bell, etc.When healthy his production is that of a top 15 back. He's going to produce 1,000 yards rushing, 400 yards receiving, and 9 touchdowns.I will take that all day long over then unknown production from the guys above.With an ADP on Antsports of around 50-55 this guy is an absolute steal. Jordan, Jackson, and Bell are going a full two rounds or more earlier than this guy. Heck.. even Cedric Benson has a higher ADP. :no: wow.

 
I agree that he's slightly undervalued in redrafts. However, he is not without issues, and I can't fault some folks having him lower than I do.He's never had more than 1133 yards in his career, and has had only 3 1000 yard seasons (out of 8). I don't think you can count on your 9 TDs either, since his career average is less than 5. His career YPC of 4.1 is also not great for the kind of back that he is.In his last two years he hasn't really caught a lot of passes either. It's not that he can't catch anymore, but Atlanta doesn't seem interested in throwing to backs as often as some other teams.But the main problem in my mind is that Duckett is going to start taking away even more opportunities than he has in the past. There is some risk that Duckett becomes a true starter and Dunn becomes a change of pace option. I don't necessarily think that will absolutely be the case this year, but it is certainly possible.

 
Every year we here the same thing . . . that Dunn is going to split time or get benched or get hurt or whatever. He always goes as a RB3 and always produces as a RB2. Always. He is free money for fantasy draft purposes--his ADP is always far below what he produces.He may not put up 2,000/15. But he's never drafted at a slot where he HAS to produce like that. He was the #15 RB last year. His current ADP is 28.He should change his name to Rodney Dangerfield.

 
He should change his name to Rodney Dangerfield.
or tiki barber
:goodposting: Tiki and Warrick start the All-undervalued team

I'd take my chances with those two on my roster.

I've been a supporter of Dunn's ever since he left the Bucs,for where he's gone in recent drafts he is the epitome of a "steal"

 
This guy is the biggest value on the board at this point. I'm not in love with his production at all, but his production for where he is drafted is pure gold.

Here's a guy currently ranked in the FBG concensus rankings as the #25 ranked running back behind the likes of JJ Arrington, Carnell Williams, Chris Brown, Lamont Jordan, Tatum Bell, etc.

When healthy his production is that of a top 15 back. He's going to produce 1,000 yards rushing, 400 yards receiving, and 9 touchdowns.

I will take that all day long over then unknown production from the guys above.

With an ADP on Antsports of around 50-55 this guy is an absolute steal. Jordan, Jackson, and Bell are going a full two rounds or more earlier than this guy. Heck.. even Cedric Benson has a higher ADP.

:no:

wow.
You're right, and many of us wholeheartedly agree.
 
I've been a huge Dunn fan/supporter the last few years and this is the first season I'm starting to consider him not a value at his ADP.
His ADP is RB28 and pick 5.04. This is great value IMO. If anything it is Tiki that is not the value people are cracking him up to be. His ADP is RB14 and pick 2.04.
 
It is hard to take a RB to high where 12 of his starts last season the guy ran for less than 80 yards on the ground. In 5 of those starts he ran for 50 yards or less. The guy is not getting any younger and T.J. Duckett will be more of a TD vulture this year ala Staley and Bettis situation. Dunn's ranking last year is a tad misleading IMO, he had 9 TD's which was his best year as a pro, so to assume him to even or surpass this total this up coming year is wishing. I think it is fair to give him 5 TD's which is a little over his career avg. I despise inconsistency in my fantasy players especially in the RB position, therefore Dunn is valued as an RB 3 IMO not an RB 2. Tiki is a way more consistent producer then Dunn and is undervalued. Dunn is inconsistent and gets drafted low due to this inconsistency. In fact, his whole career has been a fluctuation of inconsistency. One year he will surpass the 1000 yard total and then the following year he will run for 400 yds or 600 yards. Inconsitency is not welcomed on my fantasy teams.

 
I've been a huge Dunn fan/supporter the last few years and this is the first season I'm starting to consider him not a value at his ADP.
His ADP is RB28 and pick 5.04. This is great value IMO. If anything it is Tiki that is not the value people are cracking him up to be. His ADP is RB14 and pick 2.04.
:offtopic:Tiki is being drafted at value, not over or under.

 
It is hard to take a RB to high where 12 of his starts last season the guy ran for less than 80 yards on the ground. In 5 of those starts he ran for 50 yards or less. The guy is not getting any younger and T.J. Duckett will be more of a TD vulture this year ala Staley and Bettis situation. Dunn's ranking last year is a tad misleading IMO, he had 9 TD's which was his best year as a pro, so to assume him to even or surpass this total this up coming year is wishing. I think it is fair to give him 5 TD's which is a little over his career avg. I despise inconsistency in my fantasy players especially in the RB position, therefore Dunn is valued as an RB 3 IMO not an RB 2. Tiki is a way more consistent producer then Dunn and is undervalued. Dunn is inconsistent and gets drafted low due to this inconsistency. In fact, his whole career has been a fluctuation of inconsistency. One year he will surpass the 1000 yard total and then the following year he will run for 400 yds or 600 yards. Inconsitency is not welcomed on my fantasy teams.
So you would call this a consistent career? :confused:
Code:
|          Rushing         |        Receiving        |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards    Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 1997 nyg |  12 |   136    511    3.8    3 |    34    299   8.8    1 || 1998 nyg |  16 |    52    166    3.2    0 |    42    348   8.3    3 || 1999 nyg |  16 |    62    258    4.2    0 |    66    609   9.2    2 || 2000 nyg |  16 |   213   1006    4.7    8 |    70    719  10.3    1 || 2001 nyg |  14 |   166    865    5.2    4 |    72    577   8.0    0 || 2002 nyg |  16 |   303   1386    4.6   11 |    69    597   8.7    0 || 2003 nyg |  16 |   278   1216    4.4    2 |    69    461   6.7    1 || 2004 nyg |  16 |   322   1518    4.7   13 |    52    578  11.1    2 |
Tiki's TDs jump all over the place! 5 years of less than 5, 2 years of more than 10. :loco:
 
I've been a huge Dunn fan/supporter the last few years and this is the first season I'm starting to consider him not a value at his ADP.
His ADP is RB28 and pick 5.04. This is great value IMO. If anything it is Tiki that is not the value people are cracking him up to be. His ADP is RB14 and pick 2.04.
:offtopic:Tiki is being drafted at value, not over or under.
I agree totally. But how many times have you heard that he is great value? At value and of great value are far different IMO. I think we agree on that though. :thumbup:
 
It is hard to take a RB to high where 12 of his starts last season the guy ran for less than 80 yards on the ground. In 5 of those starts he ran for 50 yards or less. The guy is not getting any younger and T.J. Duckett will be more of a TD vulture this year ala Staley and Bettis situation. Dunn's ranking last year is a tad misleading IMO, he had 9 TD's which was his best year as a pro, so to assume him to even or surpass this total this up coming year is wishing. I think it is fair to give him 5 TD's which is a little over his career avg. I despise inconsistency in my fantasy players especially in the RB position, therefore Dunn is valued as an RB 3 IMO not an RB 2. Tiki is a way more consistent producer then Dunn and is undervalued. Dunn is inconsistent and gets drafted low due to this inconsistency. In fact, his whole career has been a fluctuation of inconsistency. One year he will surpass the 1000 yard total and then the following year he will run for 400 yds or 600 yards. Inconsitency is not welcomed on my fantasy teams.
So you would call this a consistent career? :confused:
| Rushing | Receiving |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 1997 nyg | 12 | 136 511 3.8 3 | 34 299 8.8 1 || 1998 nyg | 16 | 52 166 3.2 0 | 42 348 8.3 3 || 1999 nyg | 16 | 62 258 4.2 0 | 66 609 9.2 2 || 2000 nyg | 16 | 213 1006 4.7 8 | 70 719 10.3 1 || 2001 nyg | 14 | 166 865 5.2 4 | 72 577 8.0 0 || 2002 nyg | 16 | 303 1386 4.6 11 | 69 597 8.7 0 || 2003 nyg | 16 | 278 1216 4.4 2 | 69 461 6.7 1 || 2004 nyg | 16 | 322 1518 4.7 13 | 52 578 11.1 2 |Tiki's TDs jump all over the place! 5 years of less than 5, 2 years of more than 10. :loco:
The old HK "look what he did 7 years ago when he wasn't the starter!" argument. Priceless. Please post only his years as a fulltime starter for the NYG.ETA: And do it in a thread about Tiki Barber.

 
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It is hard to take a RB to high where 12 of his starts last season the guy ran for less than 80 yards on the ground. In 5 of those starts he ran for 50 yards or less. The guy is not getting any younger and T.J. Duckett will be more of a TD vulture this year ala Staley and Bettis situation. Dunn's ranking last year is a tad misleading IMO, he had 9 TD's which was his best year as a pro, so to assume him to even or surpass this total this up coming year is wishing. I think it is fair to give him 5 TD's which is a little over his career avg. I despise inconsistency in my fantasy players especially in the RB position, therefore Dunn is valued as an RB 3 IMO not an RB 2. Tiki is a way more consistent producer then Dunn and is undervalued. Dunn is inconsistent and gets drafted low due to this inconsistency. In fact, his whole career has been a fluctuation of inconsistency. One year he will surpass the 1000 yard total and then the following year he will run for 400 yds or 600 yards. Inconsitency is not welcomed on my fantasy teams.
Inconsistency is one of the most overrated things in FF. Inconsistency is very hard to predict and one player who was inconsistent last year doesn't mean they will be inconsistent this year. I remember when everyone was harping on Alexander for being inconsistent and is now probably one of the more consistent RBs there is. Also, what is better, a inconsistent player who scores more points or a consistent player who scores less points? Inconsistency is one of the last items you should be looking at when rankings players. It should be used to decide between two players with similar points. Other than that, trying to predict consistency is not very useful.Also, Barber's ADP is RB 14 whereas Dunn is RB 28. Thats quite the difference when looking at the value of a player. You may think Barber is a better bet, but his ADP is alot higher than Dunn, so he has less value.

 
It is hard to take a RB to high where 12 of his starts last season the guy ran for less than 80 yards on the ground.  In 5 of those starts he ran for 50 yards or less.   The guy is not getting any younger and T.J. Duckett will be more of a TD vulture this year ala Staley and Bettis situation.  Dunn's ranking last year is a tad misleading IMO, he had 9 TD's which was his best year as a pro, so to assume him to even or surpass this total this up coming year is wishing.  I think it is fair to give him 5 TD's which is a little over his career avg.  I despise inconsistency in my fantasy players especially in the RB position, therefore Dunn is valued as an RB 3 IMO not an RB 2. Tiki is a way more consistent producer then Dunn and is undervalued.  Dunn is inconsistent and gets drafted low due to this inconsistency.  In fact, his whole career has been a fluctuation of inconsistency.   One year he will surpass the 1000 yard total and then the following year he will run for 400 yds or 600 yards.  Inconsitency is not welcomed on my fantasy teams.
So you would call this a consistent career? :confused:
                |          Rushing         |        Receiving        |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards    Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 1997 nyg |  12 |   136    511    3.8    3 |    34    299   8.8    1 || 1998 nyg |  16 |    52    166    3.2    0 |    42    348   8.3    3 || 1999 nyg |  16 |    62    258    4.2    0 |    66    609   9.2    2 || 2000 nyg |  16 |   213   1006    4.7    8 |    70    719  10.3    1 || 2001 nyg |  14 |   166    865    5.2    4 |    72    577   8.0    0 || 2002 nyg |  16 |   303   1386    4.6   11 |    69    597   8.7    0 || 2003 nyg |  16 |   278   1216    4.4    2 |    69    461   6.7    1 || 2004 nyg |  16 |   322   1518    4.7   13 |    52    578  11.1    2 |Tiki's TDs jump all over the place! 5 years of less than 5, 2 years of more than 10. :loco:
The old HK "look what he did 7 years ago when he wasn't the starter!" argument. Priceless. Please post only his years as a fulltime starter for the NYG.ETA: And do it in a thread about Tiki Barber.
I guess 2003 is too far back to look?Edit, BTW how does the fact that Tiki has not been able to consistantly hold a featured role help support him being a consistent RB?

 
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I agree totally. But how many times have you heard that he is great value? At value and of great value are far different IMO. I think we agree on that though. :thumbup:
I think he could be tremendous value if these speculations about what Jacobs is gonna do to Tiki's value turn out as well as the speculations about Dayne last year. Tiki has already proven 2 of the last 3 years what he can do as a full-time starter with THAT line and THOSE receivers (mostly) and for a small time that QB. I'm more than willing to take him as my RB2 based on the speculation that many think he won't get more than 3 TDs. Not gonna call him great value, but compared to what you might end up with if you pass on him AT value, that can be great value in and of itself.

 
I guess 2003 is too far back to look?
Nope. We can talk about 2002, 2003 and 2004 all you want in another thread. I think you won't find the numbers as compelling for your argument as they do when you post his stats from 1997/1998 when he wasn't even getting any carries. Even on a team in 2000/2001 when he got less than 50% of the carries AND the Giants finished 15th and 22nd in offense, he still finished 13th and 14th fantasy wise. There's just something about him that makes him an exception to most rules I guess. It's not like he's defied the odds, just once recently, it's been multiple times over his career.
 
I drafted Diggity Dunn for $6 ($200 cap) last year as my RB#4, so I definitely received my $'s worth. However, I wouldn't spend much more than that on him again this year (which I expect him to go in the teens). And you are not going to win many titles with him as your #2 RB. He absolutely killed owners last year in the stretch run before the playoffs with some horrid games. And even a game where he scored 2x, he only rushes for 40 yards. Yikes. That being said, he still represents good value where he is being drafted, and I will be more than happy to fleece my league mates by picking him up again for a few bucks.

 
He absolutely killed owners last year in the stretch run before the playoffs with some horrid games.
Do you think that's worthy of blaming on a player? Not playing well on weeks that happen to coincide with weeks leading to fantasy playoffs?
 
Dunn's average ppg over the past 5 years: 13.1, 10.5, 12.3, 11.9, and 12.1. People will complain that he's not consistent, but they fail to realize that if he's not running the ball he's catching it. If he's not getting a ton of yardage, he'll add a TD. He gets his production a lot of different ways, but he gets it. Sure, it's not glamorous starting a guy that gets 88 yards of offense and adds in a TD on average every other week (actually slightly better than that).

 
I drafted Diggity Dunn for $6 ($200 cap) last year as my RB#4, so I definitely received my $'s worth. However, I wouldn't spend much more than that on him again this year (which I expect him to go in the teens). And you are not going to win many titles with him as your #2 RB. He absolutely killed owners last year in the stretch run before the playoffs with some horrid games. And even a game where he scored 2x, he only rushes for 40 yards. Yikes. That being said, he still represents good value where he is being drafted, and I will be more than happy to fleece my league mates by picking him up again for a few bucks.
This reminded me of his fantasy playoff prowess . . .In the past 5 seasons (excluding 2003 when he was hurt), Dunn has averaged 19 fantasy points per game in Weeks 15 and 16.

:eek:

 
Dunn is undervalued at RB25, but not severely undervalued - he's still got some serious warts - dont let his numbers in 2004 fool you into being too optimistic...1) 2004 saw dunn's highest carry and rushing TD totals of his career and first year playing in all 16 games since 2000.2) Dunn's role in the passing game is trending down. The Falcons are doing more work with Duckett in the passing game. I suspect Dunn's years of 50 receptions or 500 yards through the air are over.3) dunn had 8 games at or above his average of 12.1 fantasy points - 4 of them were when duckett was out - if duckett stays healthy, dunn's game as anything except an adequate RB2 will be few and far between.I like Dunn as a "hold the line" RB2 where he's going if you have taken 3 QB/TE/WR in the first 4 rounds. I like him as an RB3. But he's still not very exciting as a fantasy player unless duckett gets hurt. The rookie RBs, Jordan, and Bell all have potential to be a quality RB2 or even RB1 - Dunn does not have that - I think his 2001-3 finishes of RB23, RB19, and RB27 are much closer to what youll get from him than the RB15 he finished at last year.

 
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My Dunn value play write-up made the magazine - I love the value that Dunn represents.Tiki has annually been one of my favorite value plays, too, but I have the feeling he will be going pretty high in drafts this year.Dunn is still excellent value.

 
It is hard to take a RB to high where 12 of his starts last season the guy ran for less than 80 yards on the ground. In 5 of those starts he ran for 50 yards or less. The guy is not getting any younger and T.J. Duckett will be more of a TD vulture this year ala Staley and Bettis situation. Dunn's ranking last year is a tad misleading IMO, he had 9 TD's which was his best year as a pro, so to assume him to even or surpass this total this up coming year is wishing. I think it is fair to give him 5 TD's which is a little over his career avg. I despise inconsistency in my fantasy players especially in the RB position, therefore Dunn is valued as an RB 3 IMO not an RB 2. Tiki is a way more consistent producer then Dunn and is undervalued. Dunn is inconsistent and gets drafted low due to this inconsistency. In fact, his whole career has been a fluctuation of inconsistency. One year he will surpass the 1000 yard total and then the following year he will run for 400 yds or 600 yards. Inconsitency is not welcomed on my fantasy teams.
This is a very misinformed posting"It is hard to take a RB to high where 12 of his starts last season the guy ran for less than 80 yards on the ground. "

Good thing 95% of us play in leagues that reward for receiving yards :thumbup: Dunn hit double digits in fantasy points 11 times last season, compare that to other 'consistent' RBs

"The guy is not getting any younger and T.J. Duckett will be more of a TD vulture this year ala Staley and Bettis situation."

Why is this? Just because? To compare this situation to Staley and Bettis is ridiculous

"Dunn's ranking last year is a tad misleading IMO, he had 9 TD's which was his best year as a pro"

2004 was the third year Dunn had at least 9 TDs

"I think it is fair to give him 5 TD's which is a little over his career avg. "

Dunn has averaged over 7 TDs his past 5 yrs.

"I despise inconsistency in my fantasy players especially in the RB position"

18.3, 16.4, 13.7, 13.6, 13.5, 1.3, 12.1, 10, 8.1, 8, 5.2, 11.2, 19.4, 19.9, 15.2

Inconsistency like this will go a long way toward winning your league

"One year he will surpass the 1000 yard total and then the following year he will run for 400 yds or 600 yards. Inconsitency is not welcomed on my fantasy teams."

1440, 1370, 1205, 1555, 1004, 1304, 1008, 1400

Those are Dunn's yardage totals for his entire career. Might be time to open your eyes to two dimensional backs. Something tells me you think D Davis sucks as well...

 
It is hard to take a RB to high where 12 of his starts last season the guy ran for less than 80 yards on the ground.  In 5 of those starts he ran for 50 yards or less.  The guy is not getting any younger and T.J. Duckett will be more of a TD vulture this year ala Staley and Bettis situation.  Dunn's ranking last year is a tad misleading IMO, he had 9 TD's which was his best year as a pro, so to assume him to even or surpass this total this up coming year is wishing.  I think it is fair to give him 5 TD's which is a little over his career avg.  I despise inconsistency in my fantasy players especially in the RB position, therefore Dunn is valued as an RB 3 IMO not an RB 2. Tiki is a way more consistent producer then Dunn and is undervalued.  Dunn is inconsistent and gets drafted low due to this inconsistency.  In fact, his whole career has been a fluctuation of inconsistency.  One year he will surpass the 1000 yard total and then the following year he will run for 400 yds or 600 yards.  Inconsitency is not welcomed on my fantasy teams.
This is a very misinformed posting"It is hard to take a RB to high where 12 of his starts last season the guy ran for less than 80 yards on the ground. "

Good thing 95% of us play in leagues that reward for receiving yards :thumbup: Dunn hit double digits in fantasy points 11 times last season, compare that to other 'consistent' RBs

"The guy is not getting any younger and T.J. Duckett will be more of a TD vulture this year ala Staley and Bettis situation."

Why is this? Just because? To compare this situation to Staley and Bettis is ridiculous

"Dunn's ranking last year is a tad misleading IMO, he had 9 TD's which was his best year as a pro"

2004 was the third year Dunn had at least 9 TDs

"I think it is fair to give him 5 TD's which is a little over his career avg. "

Dunn has averaged over 7 TDs his past 5 yrs.

"I despise inconsistency in my fantasy players especially in the RB position"

18.3, 16.4, 13.7, 13.6, 13.5, 1.3, 12.1, 10, 8.1, 8, 5.2, 11.2, 19.4, 19.9, 15.2

Inconsistency like this will go a long way toward winning your league

"One year he will surpass the 1000 yard total and then the following year he will run for 400 yds or 600 yards. Inconsitency is not welcomed on my fantasy teams."

1440, 1370, 1205, 1555, 1004, 1304, 1008, 1400

Those are Dunn's yardage totals for his entire career. Might be time to open your eyes to two dimensional backs. Something tells me you think D Davis sucks as well...
Good posting wilked. Unless you are in a TD-heavy league, or one that does not reward receiving numbers from RBs, Dunn has been one of the most consistent FF performers (IIRC, 11.9 FP/game the last two years), and consistently undervalued, RBs.
 
"I despise inconsistency in my fantasy players especially in the RB position"

18.3, 16.4, 13.7, 13.6, 13.5, 1.3, 12.1, 10, 8.1, 8, 5.2, 11.2, 19.4, 19.9, 15.2
here are the numbers without the games duckett missed:18.3, 16.4, 13.6, 1.3, 12.1, 10, 8.1, 8, 5.2, 11.2, 15.2

strong start, and kinda "meh" after that...

i still like his value, but im not gushing over him. his 2004 stats were misleading because he was durable and duckett missed the most games he has so far in his any of his 3 seasons.

 
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"I despise inconsistency in my fantasy players especially in the RB position"

18.3, 16.4, 13.7, 13.6, 13.5, 1.3, 12.1, 10, 8.1, 8, 5.2, 11.2, 19.4, 19.9, 15.2
here are the numbers without the games duckett missed:18.3, 16.4, 13.6, 1.3, 12.1, 10, 8.1, 8, 5.2, 11.2, 15.2

strong start, and kinda "meh" after that...

i still like his value, but im not gushing over him. his 2004 stats were misleading because he was durable and duckett missed the most games he has so far in his any of his 3 seasons.
looks like nice RB2 numbers to me, especially for a guy you can get in the 5thNot sure what you are looking for from him, 20+ points / game? :confused:

 
"I despise inconsistency in my fantasy players especially in the RB position"

18.3, 16.4, 13.7, 13.6, 13.5, 1.3, 12.1, 10, 8.1, 8, 5.2, 11.2, 19.4, 19.9, 15.2
here are the numbers without the games duckett missed:18.3, 16.4, 13.6, 1.3, 12.1, 10, 8.1, 8, 5.2, 11.2, 15.2

strong start, and kinda "meh" after that...

i still like his value, but im not gushing over him. his 2004 stats were misleading because he was durable and duckett missed the most games he has so far in his any of his 3 seasons.
looks like nice RB2 numbers to me, especially for a guy you can get in the 5thNot sure what you are looking for from him, 20+ points / game? :confused:
adequate RB2 numbers, ill agree - which should put him somewhere in RB18-24 range - a value as RB25, but not a tremendous value.
 
"I despise inconsistency in my fantasy players especially in the RB position"

18.3, 16.4, 13.7, 13.6, 13.5, 1.3, 12.1, 10, 8.1, 8, 5.2, 11.2, 19.4, 19.9, 15.2
here are the numbers without the games duckett missed:18.3, 16.4, 13.6, 1.3, 12.1, 10, 8.1, 8, 5.2, 11.2, 15.2

strong start, and kinda "meh" after that...

i still like his value, but im not gushing over him. his 2004 stats were misleading because he was durable and duckett missed the most games he has so far in his any of his 3 seasons.
looks like nice RB2 numbers to me, especially for a guy you can get in the 5thNot sure what you are looking for from him, 20+ points / game? :confused:
adequate RB2 numbers, ill agree - which should put him somewhere in RB18-24 range - a value as RB25, but not a tremendous value.
He is being drafted as RB28 right now. http://antsports.com/adp.asp
 
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"I despise inconsistency in my fantasy players especially in the RB position"

18.3, 16.4, 13.7, 13.6, 13.5, 1.3, 12.1, 10, 8.1, 8, 5.2, 11.2, 19.4, 19.9, 15.2
here are the numbers without the games duckett missed:18.3, 16.4, 13.6, 1.3, 12.1, 10, 8.1, 8, 5.2, 11.2, 15.2

strong start, and kinda "meh" after that...

i still like his value, but im not gushing over him. his 2004 stats were misleading because he was durable and duckett missed the most games he has so far in his any of his 3 seasons.
looks like nice RB2 numbers to me, especially for a guy you can get in the 5thNot sure what you are looking for from him, 20+ points / game? :confused:
adequate RB2 numbers, ill agree - which should put him somewhere in RB18-24 range - a value as RB25, but not a tremendous value.
Nope, it put him at RB15 last year ;)
 
It really is just my opinion of Dunn, but I just have a hard time playing him as my RB 2 week in and week out especially with the depth at RB this year and who I can and will draft ahead of him. I do like him as an RB3 especially in my league where RB's do not get points for receptions. I feel after Duckett hammered in 4 rushing TD's in that game last season in the regular season before he tweaked his knee along with his size and power give him all of the goal line work. Also, correct me if I am wrong but Dunn is playing in his last year of his contract and Atl may want to start seeing what Duckett is made of before the end of the year.I have a hard time taking him anywhere in the top 25 RB's this season when there are so many guys who I will draft ahead of him that could produce top 10 numbers. We have seen what Dunn can do and it is not top 10. I am not afraid of gambling with guys like Jordan, Brown etc. as these guys could and should finish in that 15- 25 range but have much more upside then Dunn.

 
"I despise inconsistency in my fantasy players especially in the RB position"

18.3, 16.4, 13.7, 13.6, 13.5, 1.3, 12.1, 10, 8.1, 8, 5.2, 11.2, 19.4, 19.9, 15.2
here are the numbers without the games duckett missed:18.3, 16.4, 13.6, 1.3, 12.1, 10, 8.1, 8, 5.2, 11.2, 15.2

strong start, and kinda "meh" after that...

i still like his value, but im not gushing over him. his 2004 stats were misleading because he was durable and duckett missed the most games he has so far in his any of his 3 seasons.
looks like nice RB2 numbers to me, especially for a guy you can get in the 5thNot sure what you are looking for from him, 20+ points / game? :confused:
adequate RB2 numbers, ill agree - which should put him somewhere in RB18-24 range - a value as RB25, but not a tremendous value.
Nope, it put him at RB15 last year ;)
Which was very close to the best he's done in 8 years. Not sure I would bank on that next year (or any year).
 
i love dunn, always have since he blew up as a rookie and spot-filled in nicely on my way to winning my first championship in my main $$$ league.heres where i think his overall season stats are somewhat decieving, in the same way that tiki's and preist's (from 2003) are skewed, at least by our scoring system.we get a 5-point bonus for 100 rush or rec., so FF-wise, i would rather have a guy, especially a guy i use in situational spots or bye-weeks, rush for 1000 yards for an entire year with six-seven 100-yard games, than a guy who rushes for 1420 yards and only gets three 100-yard games (preist in 2003).im not saying id take dunn earlier than the 4-5th round, and im not saying he is EVEN CLOSE to priest, but i think its more important to look at game by game comparisons when determining later round picks and sleepers.it does depend on your league scoring, but for my buck, dunn is great as a #3-4 RB in 10-12 man league, but his lack to put up huge rushing games hurts in my leagues. a 100 yard game = 15 points (10+5) which is equiv. to 2.5 TDs/side note, 2 years ago i managed to get duece and was at a local sports bar watching the NO game and i remember he broke 100 with less than 3-4 minutes left. i was ecstatic, meanwhile a fellow duece owner whom i teach with cared less b/c his league only gave 1pt. per 20yds. so where i was looking at 21-25 points, he was looking at 10-15 points (duece had a TD in the game).another story. i once made a bet with a stubborn leaguemate over who was a better FF WR, holt or bruce (this was 2000 i believe, so both were sick). i said bruce, he said holt. well after adding up (we still used paper/pen for scoring) the weekly tallys, turns out bruce did have better FF #s even though his final stats werent as good as holts (holt ended up w/ way more yards, but bruce had more 100 yard games, i think the TDs were similar).just my 2 cents, sorry for the long post and sorry if honda earlier in topic.-biz-

 
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It really is just my opinion of Dunn, but I just have a hard time playing him as my RB 2 week in and week out especially with the depth at RB this year and who I can and will draft ahead of him.  I do like him as an RB3 especially in my league where RB's do not get points for receptions.  I feel after Duckett hammered in 4 rushing TD's in that game last season in the regular season before he tweaked his knee along with his size and power give him all of the goal line work.  Also, correct me if I am wrong but Dunn is playing in his last year of his contract and Atl may want to start seeing what Duckett is made of before the end of the year.

I have a hard time taking him anywhere in the top 25 RB's this season when there are so many guys who I will draft ahead of him that could produce top 10 numbers.  We have seen what Dunn can do and it is not top 10.  I am not afraid of gambling with guys like Jordan, Brown etc. as these guys could and should finish in that 15- 25 range but have much more upside then Dunn.
OK, here's what I don't get. Jordan and Brown have upside to be in the 15-25 range, yet Dunn has no chance to rank in that range?He's done it 6 times in 7 years and in the other year was the #12 RB at the time he got hurt.

AND

He could be had three rounds later than the other guys you mentioned.

So which is better, paying $80,000 for a $50,000 car or paying $35,000 for a $50,000 car?

 
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It really is just my opinion of Dunn, but I just have a hard time playing him as my RB 2 week in and week out especially with the depth at RB this year and who I can and will draft ahead of him.  I do like him as an RB3 especially in my league where RB's do not get points for receptions.  I feel after Duckett hammered in 4 rushing TD's in that game last season in the regular season before he tweaked his knee along with his size and power give him all of the goal line work.  Also, correct me if I am wrong but Dunn is playing in his last year of his contract and Atl may want to start seeing what Duckett is made of before the end of the year.

I have a hard time taking him anywhere in the top 25 RB's this season when there are so many guys who I will draft ahead of him that could produce top 10 numbers.  We have seen what Dunn can do and it is not top 10.  I am not afraid of gambling with guys like Jordan, Brown etc. as these guys could and should finish in that 15- 25 range but have much more upside then Dunn.
OK, here's what I don't get. Jordan and Brown have upside to be in the 15-25 range, yet Dunn has no chance to rank in that range?He's done it 6 times in 7 years and in the other year was the #12 RB at the time he got hurt.

AND

He could be had three rounds later than the other guys you mentioned.

So which is better, paying $80,000 for a $50,000 car or paying $35,000 for a $50,000 car?
to take your analogy one step further:dunn is a 50,000 car and thats all he'll ever be. Jordan or Brown have a chance to be a 100,000 car.

 
It really is just my opinion of Dunn, but I just have a hard time playing him as my RB 2 week in and week out especially with the depth at RB this year and who I can and will draft ahead of him.  I do like him as an RB3 especially in my league where RB's do not get points for receptions.  I feel after Duckett hammered in 4 rushing TD's in that game last season in the regular season before he tweaked his knee along with his size and power give him all of the goal line work.  Also, correct me if I am wrong but Dunn is playing in his last year of his contract and Atl may want to start seeing what Duckett is made of before the end of the year.

I have a hard time taking him anywhere in the top 25 RB's this season when there are so many guys who I will draft ahead of him that could produce top 10 numbers.  We have seen what Dunn can do and it is not top 10.  I am not afraid of gambling with guys like Jordan, Brown etc. as these guys could and should finish in that 15- 25 range but have much more upside then Dunn.
OK, here's what I don't get. Jordan and Brown have upside to be in the 15-25 range, yet Dunn has no chance to rank in that range?He's done it 6 times in 7 years and in the other year was the #12 RB at the time he got hurt.

AND

He could be had three rounds later than the other guys you mentioned.

So which is better, paying $80,000 for a $50,000 car or paying $35,000 for a $50,000 car?
to take your analogy one step further:dunn is a 50,000 car and thats all he'll ever be. Jordan or Brown have a chance to be a 100,000 car.
Yes this is what I mean. Sometimes your investment pays off while other times you may fall on your face. Sometimes I don't mind gambling in return for a bigger pay out even if I have to do it a couple rounds earlier. Yes I know you are always trying to get the best value for a player, but sometimes paying the extra 50,000 dollars for a car may get you that hot lady you have been trying to wheel for the last few years.
 
It really is just my opinion of Dunn, but I just have a hard time playing him as my RB 2 week in and week out especially with the depth at RB this year and who I can and will draft ahead of him.  I do like him as an RB3 especially in my league where RB's do not get points for receptions.  I feel after Duckett hammered in 4 rushing TD's in that game last season in the regular season before he tweaked his knee along with his size and power give him all of the goal line work.  Also, correct me if I am wrong but Dunn is playing in his last year of his contract and Atl may want to start seeing what Duckett is made of before the end of the year.

I have a hard time taking him anywhere in the top 25 RB's this season when there are so many guys who I will draft ahead of him that could produce top 10 numbers.  We have seen what Dunn can do and it is not top 10.  I am not afraid of gambling with guys like Jordan, Brown etc. as these guys could and should finish in that 15- 25 range but have much more upside then Dunn.
OK, here's what I don't get. Jordan and Brown have upside to be in the 15-25 range, yet Dunn has no chance to rank in that range?He's done it 6 times in 7 years and in the other year was the #12 RB at the time he got hurt.

AND

He could be had three rounds later than the other guys you mentioned.

So which is better, paying $80,000 for a $50,000 car or paying $35,000 for a $50,000 car?
to take your analogy one step further:dunn is a 50,000 car and thats all he'll ever be. Jordan or Brown have a chance to be a 100,000 car.
I don't disagree that Brown and Jordan have a higher ceiling, but in the 5th round, there will not be a $100,000 car available. At that point, you might be looking at economy cars instead of luxury sedans. (Actually, there could be if you take Larry Johnson.)My point was that Brown, Jordan, and Dunn were all slated to rank IN THE SAME BANDWIDTH.

Burning the #15 pick in a draft to get the #18th ranked RB is leaps and bounds worse than using the #55 pick to get the #17 RB.

Your $100,000 analogy is assuming that Brown, Jordan, and Dunn are all going to cost the same draft pick, which clearly Dunn will come at a discount.

 
"I despise inconsistency in my fantasy players especially in the RB position"

18.3, 16.4, 13.7, 13.6, 13.5, 1.3, 12.1, 10, 8.1, 8, 5.2, 11.2, 19.4, 19.9, 15.2
here are the numbers without the games duckett missed:18.3, 16.4, 13.6, 1.3, 12.1, 10, 8.1, 8, 5.2, 11.2, 15.2

strong start, and kinda "meh" after that...

i still like his value, but im not gushing over him. his 2004 stats were misleading because he was durable and duckett missed the most games he has so far in his any of his 3 seasons.
looks like nice RB2 numbers to me, especially for a guy you can get in the 5thNot sure what you are looking for from him, 20+ points / game? :confused:
adequate RB2 numbers, ill agree - which should put him somewhere in RB18-24 range - a value as RB25, but not a tremendous value.
Nope, it put him at RB15 last year ;)
Which was very close to the best he's done in 8 years. Not sure I would bank on that next year (or any year).
lol, keep the misinformation coming :lmao: The best he's done in 8 years? Here is his chronological ranking at his position since he came into the league

13, 19, 21, 15, 23, 19, 27, 15

I would argue that 15th is right in line with his entire career

Another example of how the "sharks" draft based on potential rather than proven output. I think it was my GB Carter who said something like "with the depth at RB this year "...EVERY year looks like the year there will be 25 RBs finishing in the top 10...the problem is that there are only 10 spots. I would rather bank on the guy who has finished between 13 and 23 7 out of 8 years in his career finishing as a good RB2, ESPECIALLY when he can be drafted as your RB4

 
lol, keep the misinformation coming :lmao:

The best he's done in 8 years? Here is his chronological ranking at his position since he came into the league

13, 19, 21, 15, 23, 19, 27, 15

I would argue that 15th is right in line with his entire career

Another example of how the "sharks" draft based on potential rather than proven output. I think it was my GB Carter who said something like "with the depth at RB this year "...EVERY year looks like the year there will be 25 RBs finishing in the top 10...the problem is that there are only 10 spots. I would rather bank on the guy who has finished between 13 and 23 7 out of 8 years in his career finishing as a good RB2, ESPECIALLY when he can be drafted as your RB4
when i average out those finishes i get 19, not 15. dunn outperformed his historical average finish last year because he played in all 16 games, and his RBBC counterpart only played in 12. unless you project something similar to happen again, i dont see dunn finishing at RB15 again.
 
lol, keep the misinformation coming  :lmao:

The best he's done in 8 years?  Here is his chronological ranking at his position since he came into the league

13, 19, 21, 15, 23, 19, 27, 15

I would argue that 15th is right in line with his entire career

Another example of how the "sharks" draft based on potential rather than proven output.  I think it was my GB Carter who said something like "with the depth at RB this year "...EVERY year looks like the year there will be 25 RBs finishing in the top 10...the problem is that there are only 10 spots.  I would rather bank on the guy who has finished between 13 and 23 7 out of 8 years in his career finishing as a good RB2, ESPECIALLY when he can be drafted as your RB4
when i average out those finishes i get 19, not 15. dunn outperformed his historical average finish last year because he played in all 16 games, and his RBBC counterpart only played in 12. unless you project something similar to happen again, i dont see dunn finishing at RB15 again.
15, 19, use whatever of the two you are more comfortable with, but he is being drafted at RB28Value

 
just to add some more fuel to the fire - dunn's finish at 19 in 2002 was also due in part to duckett missing time - here's dunn's point totals from the games duckett missed in 2002:20.311.922.98.1if duckett stays healthy, dunn will finish at RB20 AT BEST - Dunn was only able to finish at RB15 last year because Duckett was only healthy enough to get 104 carries - a little over half of what TJ got in 2003 when Duckett played in all 16 games.

 
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"I despise inconsistency in my fantasy players especially in the RB position"

18.3, 16.4, 13.7, 13.6, 13.5, 1.3, 12.1, 10, 8.1, 8, 5.2, 11.2, 19.4, 19.9, 15.2
here are the numbers without the games duckett missed:18.3, 16.4, 13.6, 1.3, 12.1, 10, 8.1, 8, 5.2, 11.2, 15.2

strong start, and kinda "meh" after that...

i still like his value, but im not gushing over him. his 2004 stats were misleading because he was durable and duckett missed the most games he has so far in his any of his 3 seasons.
looks like nice RB2 numbers to me, especially for a guy you can get in the 5thNot sure what you are looking for from him, 20+ points / game? :confused:
adequate RB2 numbers, ill agree - which should put him somewhere in RB18-24 range - a value as RB25, but not a tremendous value.
Nope, it put him at RB15 last year ;)
Which was very close to the best he's done in 8 years. Not sure I would bank on that next year (or any year).
lol, keep the misinformation coming :lmao: The best he's done in 8 years? Here is his chronological ranking at his position since he came into the league

13, 19, 21, 15, 23, 19, 27, 15

I would argue that 15th is right in line with his entire career

Another example of how the "sharks" draft based on potential rather than proven output. I think it was my GB Carter who said something like "with the depth at RB this year "...EVERY year looks like the year there will be 25 RBs finishing in the top 10...the problem is that there are only 10 spots. I would rather bank on the guy who has finished between 13 and 23 7 out of 8 years in his career finishing as a good RB2, ESPECIALLY when he can be drafted as your RB4
See Bloom's post above. If that doesn't work for you:Dunn has never been in the top 10 in ANYTHING in his entire career. No total yards, not rushing yards, not rushing average, not TDs, not FANTASY POINTS, etc. Call it "misinformation" if you want to, but the FACT is that Dunn has NEVER been significantly better than he was last year when things went really well for him overall.

Now he's a year older, he's still a part-time back, he doesn't catch the ball like he used to, and there is every indication that he won't get a lot of goal-line looks. That scenario does NOT lead me to believe he's about to strike into unkown territory and it makes me think that he could be headed down rather than up.

 
Aren't all small backs typically underrated?...similarly, smallish WR's like Ward and Smith take longer to get "noticed", no? Speaking of which, both are undervalued this year. :popcorn:

 
"I despise inconsistency in my fantasy players especially in the RB position"

18.3, 16.4, 13.7, 13.6, 13.5, 1.3, 12.1, 10, 8.1, 8, 5.2, 11.2, 19.4, 19.9, 15.2
here are the numbers without the games duckett missed:18.3, 16.4, 13.6, 1.3, 12.1, 10, 8.1, 8, 5.2, 11.2, 15.2

strong start, and kinda "meh" after that...

i still like his value, but im not gushing over him. his 2004 stats were misleading because he was durable and duckett missed the most games he has so far in his any of his 3 seasons.
looks like nice RB2 numbers to me, especially for a guy you can get in the 5thNot sure what you are looking for from him, 20+ points / game? :confused:
adequate RB2 numbers, ill agree - which should put him somewhere in RB18-24 range - a value as RB25, but not a tremendous value.
Nope, it put him at RB15 last year ;)
Which was very close to the best he's done in 8 years. Not sure I would bank on that next year (or any year).
lol, keep the misinformation coming :lmao: The best he's done in 8 years? Here is his chronological ranking at his position since he came into the league

13, 19, 21, 15, 23, 19, 27, 15

I would argue that 15th is right in line with his entire career

Another example of how the "sharks" draft based on potential rather than proven output. I think it was my GB Carter who said something like "with the depth at RB this year "...EVERY year looks like the year there will be 25 RBs finishing in the top 10...the problem is that there are only 10 spots. I would rather bank on the guy who has finished between 13 and 23 7 out of 8 years in his career finishing as a good RB2, ESPECIALLY when he can be drafted as your RB4
See Bloom's post above. If that doesn't work for you:Dunn has never been in the top 10 in ANYTHING in his entire career. No total yards, not rushing yards, not rushing average, not TDs, not FANTASY POINTS, etc. Call it "misinformation" if you want to, but the FACT is that Dunn has NEVER been significantly better than he was last year when things went really well for him overall.
sorry to be curt, but.....so what?
 
Dunn is really a situational player for me in that it all depends on the league. Some leagues/situations require more upside out of players than others.Dunn = safe numbers, but he's missing some upside.It really just depends on the league IMHO.

 
"I despise inconsistency in my fantasy players especially in the RB position"

18.3, 16.4, 13.7, 13.6, 13.5, 1.3, 12.1, 10, 8.1, 8, 5.2, 11.2, 19.4, 19.9, 15.2
here are the numbers without the games duckett missed:18.3, 16.4, 13.6, 1.3, 12.1, 10, 8.1, 8, 5.2, 11.2, 15.2

strong start, and kinda "meh" after that...

i still like his value, but im not gushing over him. his 2004 stats were misleading because he was durable and duckett missed the most games he has so far in his any of his 3 seasons.
looks like nice RB2 numbers to me, especially for a guy you can get in the 5thNot sure what you are looking for from him, 20+ points / game? :confused:
adequate RB2 numbers, ill agree - which should put him somewhere in RB18-24 range - a value as RB25, but not a tremendous value.
Nope, it put him at RB15 last year ;)
Which was very close to the best he's done in 8 years. Not sure I would bank on that next year (or any year).
lol, keep the misinformation coming :lmao: The best he's done in 8 years? Here is his chronological ranking at his position since he came into the league

13, 19, 21, 15, 23, 19, 27, 15

I would argue that 15th is right in line with his entire career

Another example of how the "sharks" draft based on potential rather than proven output. I think it was my GB Carter who said something like "with the depth at RB this year "...EVERY year looks like the year there will be 25 RBs finishing in the top 10...the problem is that there are only 10 spots. I would rather bank on the guy who has finished between 13 and 23 7 out of 8 years in his career finishing as a good RB2, ESPECIALLY when he can be drafted as your RB4
See Bloom's post above. If that doesn't work for you:Dunn has never been in the top 10 in ANYTHING in his entire career. No total yards, not rushing yards, not rushing average, not TDs, not FANTASY POINTS, etc. Call it "misinformation" if you want to, but the FACT is that Dunn has NEVER been significantly better than he was last year when things went really well for him overall.

Now he's a year older, he's still a part-time back, he doesn't catch the ball like he used to, and there is every indication that he won't get a lot of goal-line looks. That scenario does NOT lead me to believe he's about to strike into unkown territory and it makes me think that he could be headed down rather than up.
He was 0.30 yds away from top 10 in yards, or 10.8 inches :D lol...every year he 'won't do it again'...this argument gets used until he approaches 30, at which point he is now 'too old to do it again'.

He has finished between 13th and 23rd 7 of 8 years, I for one would not bet against him to do it again

 

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