Warrick Dunn (1 Viewer)

[azngangster]

No more Duckett.

 

[Capella]

good info here

 

[Black Sunshine]

I hear Jerious Norwood runs wide right really well.

 

[Brewdude]

Had a 3-man keeper draft tonight.

I was able to get Dunn at 1.10 (after the keepers were declared)...don't know why he fell. Around the 5th round is when the news broke. Thrilled to have three starts on my roster as my two primaries (LT & Jordan) have the same bye -- 3).

Now I just need TBell to take the starting job back...

The biggest benefactor in this news is Norwood though. He's already gone in my two leagues that have drafted...

 

[hawaiiankrush]

No more TJ...hello Jerios...RBBC

 

[Brewdude]

No more TJ...hello Jerios...RBBC

Dunn has looked really good this year. Why would RBBC be more of an issue now than before the trade?

 

[broncofan13000]

No more TJ...hello Jerios...RBBC

Dunn has looked really good this year. Why would RBBC be more of an issue now than before the trade?

Exactly...i'm trying to figure out why FBG's projections still show him at 5 rushing td's.

 

[Big Score]

I think we'll see Vick ending up with a few more rushing TD's this year too.

 

[Big Score]

And Griffith

 

[broncofan13000]

And Griffith

the guys never had a rushing TD...edit: took out the chart, cause i suck with charts

 

[Big Score]

And Griffith

the guys never had a rushing TD...

He will now

 

[Z-Dog]

I'm surprised the deal was made exactly b/c of the short-yardage issue. I wonder if Atlanta is considering Stephen Davis at this point - you trade Duckett and get something for him, sign Davis for the year, and worry about a new big back in the offseason.

Between Roddy White, Dunn, Lelie, Vick, and Norwood, this team has a lot speed on offense (and Crumpler's fast for a TE too). They should be great on turf. And yeah, everyone's going to bump Norwood, and they should. The Falcons didn't make this move based on how good Dunn looked in camp, they did it based on Norwood. However, I think they will expand Griffith's ballcarrying role as well, and Vick has talked about running more this season. I'm only bumping up Norwood a little bit. In dynasty, he gets a nice boost, into consideration with White, Williams, Maroney, and Addai.

 

[Black Sunshine]

As a Crumpler owner, I say screw the goal line carries and just dump it off over the middle to him. 15 TD's by a TE? Yeah baby!

 

[BustedKnuckles]

Jerious Norwood Miss St 5'11" 204lbs 4.4

Summary: Deep Sleeper alert! This poor kid got stuck running behind 4 bags of potatoes and a statue at Mississippi State and still put up 1000 yard seasons on the regular. Everyone knew he was getting the rock, everyone stacked to stop him, his O-line blew chunks and he still racked up the yards. He's got great speed and vision and on the right team, he has a legit shot to be an NFL starter. None of your casual league members will give him a look, but you are now in the know...and knowing is half the battle (GI Joe 1984).

 

[joffer]

Jerious Norwood Miss St 5'11" 204lbs 4.4 Summary: Deep Sleeper alert! This poor kid got stuck running behind 4 bags of potatoes and a statue at Mississippi State and still put up 1000 yard seasons on the regular. Everyone knew he was getting the rock, everyone stacked to stop him, his O-line blew chunks and he still racked up the yards. He's got great speed and vision and on the right team, he has a legit shot to be an NFL starter. None of your casual league members will give him a look, but you are now in the know...and knowing is half the battle (GI Joe 1984).

i like him, but he's built like a WR

 

[Big Score]

Yeah I went to a few of the Falcons TC's and paid attention to Norwood. Very fast. Very slender build. Especially in the legs. Reminded me of a greyhound.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

Does Justin Griffith have any value ?

 

[Todem]

Dunn's value goes up becuase now I can see him returnig to the 8-9 TD range to go along with the 1300-1400 yard rushing season he will have again.

Dunn get's overlooked every year as a very solid week in week out RB2

 

[Statorama]

Dunn's value goes up becuase now I can see him returnig to the 8-9 TD range to go along with the 1300-1400 yard rushing season he will have again.Dunn get's overlooked every year as a very solid week in week out RB2

With Dunn's age and build I have a hard time believing that he can handle the load it would take to put up those numbers.We'll see though.

 

[Dolfan]

Norwood is faster but not as dominant at the GL as TJ Duckett was, right?

I'm thinking about actually lowering Dunn's yardage a little bit (because I think Norwood steals a few more carries between the 20s that TJ would have never gotten) but giving [Dunnn] a few more TDs -- not all of TJs TDs, but a few of them -- Vick will pick up most of the rest, either rushing or passing, and maybe Norwood gets 1 or 2 of them...

What do you think?

 

[Payne]

Looks like Dunn will have even more value then before.

Just picked him up in round 5 of a 12 team redraft! Unbelievable.

 

[Todem]

Dunn's value goes up becuase now I can see him returnig to the 8-9 TD range to go along with the 1300-1400 yard rushing season he will have again.Dunn get's overlooked every year as a very solid week in week out RB2

With Dunn's age and build I have a hard time believing that he can handle the load it would take to put up those numbers.We'll see though.

Some backs don't age like others. Look at his career carries compared to other 31 year old backs. He looks as swift, quick and agile as he did 3 years ago. Dunn takes amazing care of his body and has a great off-season workout program he emplyos. Do I think he will slow down, of course...but not this year. And probably not next. I look at him and Tiki in the same light as far as milage. they have 2 more years of very good production left in their tanks.

 

[matuski]

Looks like Dunn will have even more value then before.Just picked him up in round 5 of a 12 team redraft! Unbelievable.

That is ridiculous... drafts like that aren't even fun.

 

[Nemesis]

I'm just surprised that ATL hasn't used Dunn more in the passing game:

2002 ATL 15 50 377 7.5 22003 ATL 11 37 336 9.1 22004 ATL 16 29 294 10.1 02005 ATL 16 29 220 7.6 1As you can see, his recptions have dropped every yr and the past 2 yrs only 1 TD.I'm hoping that with the addition of Lelie, it might actually help Dunn get free underneath when they send Lelie on longer patterns.

 

[Payne]

Looks like Dunn will have even more value then before.Just picked him up in round 5 of a 12 team redraft! Unbelievable.

That is ridiculous... drafts like that aren't even fun.

Actually it's a fairly competitve league. Not sure how he fell so far.Team so far is:RudiHoltDriverFosterDunnD. WilliamsBulger

 

[Tau837]

On the short yardage issue, I looked up the splits. It has been quite a discrepancy between Dunn & Duckett. From 2002-2005 from the 5 yard line and in:

Dunn: 58 games; 35/52/12 rushing; 1 target, 0/0/0 receiving

Duckett: 55 games; 41/44/22 rushing; 0 targets

And note that, while Duckett's career statistics show that he played 55 games over that span, meaning he missed 9 games, the game logs show that he missed or at least got no touches in 11 games. (Using FBG player pages.)

So Duckett was given more opportunities and was more successful with them, at least in terms of literally getting in the end zone. I wouldn't be surprised if Dunn had a higher ratio of these carries closer to the 5 and Duckett a higher ratio closer to the goal line, but I don't know how to tell about that.

So I think we have to take this at face value:

1. Duckett was pretty good at goal line scoring opportunities, and Dunn wasn't particularly good.

2. This led Falcons coaches (two different coaching staffs) to give Duckett more goal line opportunities.

That isn't a great thing for Dunn. It could lead the Falcons to try giving goal line carries to someone else, though I'm skeptical about Norwood and Griffith though.

On the other hand... Dunn had a total of 22 rushing TDs from 2002 to 2005. 7 of those came in games Duckett missed... counting the 0 touch games for Duckett as missed games, that's a ratio of 7 TDs in 11 games. One could argue that it is reasonable to project this 7/11 ratio out to 16 games for Dunn... which would project to 10.2 rushing TDs.

Assuming the Falcons don't come up with another good short yardage runner before the season, I think this makes it a very safe bet that Dunn will have a minimum of 8 TDs this season, with upside for 10+.

Last season, Dunn was RB12 with only 4 TDs (FBG scoring). Another 4 TDs (total of 8) would have pushed him to RB9. Another 7 (total of 11) would have pushed him to RB7. So the potential is there for Dunn to be a top 10 back now.

Probably the biggest question now is what this does to his ADP. If he can still be had after 18-20 RBs or so are off the board, he should be a great value. I'd still be a bit wary of taking him in the top 15. Really, what this does is give me further confidence on waiting until the 3rd round to take my RB2.

 

[FFDumb]

With Duckett gone, I don't think the answer is Norwood. Everyone taking him in drafts aren't lookign at all of the facts.

He is the same size as Dunn. He is not the goaline back. That will be the new 240 lb guy that they signed last week in anticipation of this trade, Marlion Jackson.

All of you Norwood lovers are makign me laugh.

 

[joffer]

Assuming the Falcons don't come up with another good short yardage runner before the season,

i know i'm not making that assumption, it just doesn't make sense to go into a season with a backfield that small.

 

[Da Guru]

When Duckett was hurt Dunn was a very effective short yardage guy. Dunn just never got the chance when Duckett was healthy.

 

[RKMoney]

After drafting LJ, TO and R Moss, my Dunn pick (#43) is looking pretty sweet about now.

 

[BigRed]

I think we'll see Vick ending up with a few more rushing TD's this year too.

I think Vick, Crumpler (etc) will suck up whatever TDs Duckett got - this of course assumes they will score as many TDs, which isn't exactly a given. Interestingly I have Portis and Dunn.

 

[Tau837]

I think we'll see Vick ending up with a few more rushing TD's this year too.

I think Vick, Crumpler (etc) will suck up whatever TDs Duckett got - this of course assumes they will score as many TDs, which isn't exactly a given.

So you think Dunn will have 3 rushing TDs again this year, even without Duckett?

Interestingly I have Portis and Dunn.

Wow, that is interesting. Please tell us more about your team.

 

[Tau837]

Assuming the Falcons don't come up with another good short yardage runner before the season,

i know i'm not making that assumption, it just doesn't make sense to go into a season with a backfield that small.

OK, then who is it? I'm not challenging you, I'm just not seeing it yet. And if they get a new short yardage back, would they definitely trust that new guy over Dunn? Guess it depends on who it is and when exactly they get him into their system (if it's a new guy).In the crumpler thread, it was shown that Vick and Dunn evenly split the non-Duckett carries inside the opponent 6 yard line. This could also easily add a few short rushing TDs for Vick.

 

[pantagrapher]

Someday, I'm going to compile a list of all the "carry the load" running backs who've gone down while Warrick "can't carry the load" Dunn has stayed healthy and, well, carried much of the load in Atlanta.

 

[FFDumb]

OK, then who is it? I'm not challenging you, I'm just not seeing it yet. And if they get a new short yardage back, would they definitely trust that new guy over Dunn? Guess it depends on who it is and when exactly they get him into their system (if it's a new guy).

Marlion Jackson. He just got signed for this very reason.

 

[pantagrapher]

I think we'll see Vick ending up with a few more rushing TD's this year too.

I think Vick, Crumpler (etc) will suck up whatever TDs Duckett got - this of course assumes they will score as many TDs, which isn't exactly a given. Interestingly I have Portis and Dunn.

I don't think coaches are crazy about giving goal line carries to an injury-prone quarterback, no matter how fast and shifty he is. I think Crumpler's stock goes up here, but I really don't see Vick getting an appreciable jump.

 

[#@%&$!?]

With Duckett gone, I don't think the answer is Norwood. Everyone taking him in drafts aren't lookign at all of the facts.

He is the same size as Dunn. He is not the goaline back. That will be the new 240 lb guy that they signed last week in anticipation of this trade, Marlion Jackson.

All of you Norwood lovers are makign me laugh.

25lbs is a pretty big difference. btw. noone's saying norwood will be a stud immediately. But he will have value next year, or if dunn is injured this year.

 

[RKMoney]

Someday, I'm going to compile a list of all the "carry the load" running backs who've gone down while Warrick "can't carry the load" Dunn has stayed healthy and, well, carried much of the load in Atlanta.

Except for this year regarding Tiki, I have always loved drafting him and Dunn since you always could get TREMENDOUS value due to everyone making lame reasons why they won't be that great in the upcoming season. Luckily, Dunn still holds this bizarre tag that he simply isn't that great.Here's to another year with Dunn.

 

[#@%&$!?]

Someday, I'm going to compile a list of all the "carry the load" running backs who've gone down while Warrick "can't carry the load" Dunn has stayed healthy and, well, carried much of the load in Atlanta.

Absolutely amazing for a guy that's a buck eighty.

 

[Tau837]

I think we'll see Vick ending up with a few more rushing TD's this year too.

I think Vick, Crumpler (etc) will suck up whatever TDs Duckett got - this of course assumes they will score as many TDs, which isn't exactly a given. Interestingly I have Portis and Dunn.

I don't think coaches are crazy about giving goal line carries to an injury-prone quarterback, no matter how fast and shifty he is. I think Crumpler's stock goes up here, but I really don't see Vick getting an appreciable jump.

Last year, Vick had 4 TDs on 7 carries inside the 5, including 4 TDs on 4 carries from the 1 or 2. Dunn had 1 TD on 7 carries inside the 5. (Typing this from memory--see the Crumpler thread from earlier today.)Big difference in success rate.

 

[Tau837]

OK, then who is it? I'm not challenging you, I'm just not seeing it yet. And if they get a new short yardage back, would they definitely trust that new guy over Dunn? Guess it depends on who it is and when exactly they get him into their system (if it's a new guy).

Marlion Jackson. He just got signed for this very reason.

Have the Falcons said anything about his role? Is there anything other than circumstantial evidence (he's presumably a bigger back plus the timing of his signing and the Duckett trade) that he will fill Duckett's role?

 

[pantagrapher]

I think we'll see Vick ending up with a few more rushing TD's this year too.

I think Vick, Crumpler (etc) will suck up whatever TDs Duckett got - this of course assumes they will score as many TDs, which isn't exactly a given. Interestingly I have Portis and Dunn.

I don't think coaches are crazy about giving goal line carries to an injury-prone quarterback, no matter how fast and shifty he is. I think Crumpler's stock goes up here, but I really don't see Vick getting an appreciable jump.

Last year, Vick had 4 TDs on 7 carries inside the 5, including 4 TDs on 4 carries from the 1 or 2. Dunn had 1 TD on 7 carries inside the 5. (Typing this from memory--see the Crumpler thread from earlier today.)Big difference in success rate.

Clearly. I just think coaches are acutely aware of the risk-reward factor involved in getting that higher success rate.

 

[_4_]

OK, then who is it? I'm not challenging you, I'm just not seeing it yet. And if they get a new short yardage back, would they definitely trust that new guy over Dunn? Guess it depends on who it is and when exactly they get him into their system (if it's a new guy).

Marlion Jackson. He just got signed for this very reason.

Have the Falcons said anything about his role? Is there anything other than circumstantial evidence (he's presumably a bigger back plus the timing of his signing and the Duckett trade) that he will fill Duckett's role?

Marlion played here in Vegas in the Arena League having only made it as far as NFL Europe in the NFL after several years. He is a big back. He was ok in the AFL, but didn't dominate. None of this portends well for a productive NFL career.

 

[Big Score]

I think we'll see Vick ending up with a few more rushing TD's this year too.

I think Vick, Crumpler (etc) will suck up whatever TDs Duckett got - this of course assumes they will score as many TDs, which isn't exactly a given. Interestingly I have Portis and Dunn.

I don't think coaches are crazy about giving goal line carries to an injury-prone quarterback, no matter how fast and shifty he is. I think Crumpler's stock goes up here, but I really don't see Vick getting an appreciable jump.

Last year, Vick had 4 TDs on 7 carries inside the 5, including 4 TDs on 4 carries from the 1 or 2. Dunn had 1 TD on 7 carries inside the 5. (Typing this from memory--see the Crumpler thread from earlier today.)Big difference in success rate.

Clearly. I just think coaches are acutely aware of the risk-reward factor involved in getting that higher success rate.

FYI,The Coaches have Goal Line offensive plays specifically drawn up for Vick to carry the ball and have used those plays with great success. Not sure why you think that this year, they will suddenly scrap those plays? Then throw in the Vick ad lib factor.I definitely see an uptick for Vick's rushing TD's this year. Figure 6 as the floor & 10 as the ceiling.My

 

[Tau837]

OK, then who is it? I'm not challenging you, I'm just not seeing it yet. And if they get a new short yardage back, would they definitely trust that new guy over Dunn? Guess it depends on who it is and when exactly they get him into their system (if it's a new guy).

Marlion Jackson. He just got signed for this very reason.

Have the Falcons said anything about his role? Is there anything other than circumstantial evidence (he's presumably a bigger back plus the timing of his signing and the Duckett trade) that he will fill Duckett's role?

Marlion played here in Vegas in the Arena League having only made it as far as NFL Europe in the NFL after several years. He is a big back. He was ok in the AFL, but didn't dominate. None of this portends well for a productive NFL career.

I suspected as much. I think people have a preconceived notion that there will be a short yardage back other than Dunn, and are looking for which back that is, rather than being open to the possibility that there won't be any such back. Hence my search for evidence.

 

[ImTheScientist]

I think we'll see Vick ending up with a few more rushing TD's this year too.

I think Vick, Crumpler (etc) will suck up whatever TDs Duckett got - this of course assumes they will score as many TDs, which isn't exactly a given. Interestingly I have Portis and Dunn.

Agree

 

[NoFBinLA]

OK, then who is it? I'm not challenging you, I'm just not seeing it yet. And if they get a new short yardage back, would they definitely trust that new guy over Dunn? Guess it depends on who it is and when exactly they get him into their system (if it's a new guy).

Marlion Jackson. He just got signed for this very reason.

Have the Falcons said anything about his role? Is there anything other than circumstantial evidence (he's presumably a bigger back plus the timing of his signing and the Duckett trade) that he will fill Duckett's role?

Marlion played here in Vegas in the Arena League having only made it as far as NFL Europe in the NFL after several years. He is a big back. He was ok in the AFL, but didn't dominate. None of this portends well for a productive NFL career.

I looked the guy up and can't see what's so exciting. I agree with JustWinBaby - we're assuming Dunn won't get those carries -- I am not so sure.But a couple weeks ago I took a flier on Norwood in a redraft reeeeeeally late and grabbed him in a dynasty before that.I think evenutally he'll take over -- though maybe not right away - and maybe not this year.The guy in charge (Dunn right now) may very well get the TDs Duckett hawked. I'll watch the next couple of preseason games with great interest.

 

[joffer]

OK, then who is it? I'm not challenging you, I'm just not seeing it yet. And if they get a new short yardage back, would they definitely trust that new guy over Dunn? Guess it depends on who it is and when exactly they get him into their system (if it's a new guy).

Marlion Jackson. He just got signed for this very reason.

Have the Falcons said anything about his role? Is there anything other than circumstantial evidence (he's presumably a bigger back plus the timing of his signing and the Duckett trade) that he will fill Duckett's role?

Marlion played here in Vegas in the Arena League having only made it as far as NFL Europe in the NFL after several years. He is a big back. He was ok in the AFL, but didn't dominate. None of this portends well for a productive NFL career.

I looked the guy up and can't see what's so exciting. I agree with JustWinBaby - we're assuming Dunn won't get those carries -- I am not so sure.But a couple weeks ago I took a flier on Norwood in a redraft reeeeeeally late and grabbed him in a dynasty before that.I think evenutally he'll take over -- though maybe not right away - and maybe not this year.The guy in charge (Dunn right now) may very well get the TDs Duckett hawked. I'll watch the next couple of preseason games with great interest.

it's likely Dunn could get more GL carries even if they add a RBmy point was that i can't believe the Falcons, who LOVE to run the ball, would go into a season with only Dunn, Norwood, and Griffith. Maybe Stephen Davis, maybe Jonathan Wells, who knows. if they add a RB, i won't bump numbers back down, just like i'm not bumping them up right now. i believe they still need depth.

 

[Statorama]

Dunn's value goes up becuase now I can see him returnig to the 8-9 TD range to go along with the 1300-1400 yard rushing season he will have again.Dunn get's overlooked every year as a very solid week in week out RB2

With Dunn's age and build I have a hard time believing that he can handle the load it would take to put up those numbers.We'll see though.

Some backs don't age like others. Look at his career carries compared to other 31 year old backs. He looks as swift, quick and agile as he did 3 years ago. Dunn takes amazing care of his body and has a great off-season workout program he emplyos. Do I think he will slow down, of course...but not this year. And probably not next. I look at him and Tiki in the same light as far as milage. they have 2 more years of very good production left in their tanks.

I wish the guy all the success in the world. From what I hear, he's a really good guy.

 

[RKMoney]

I think we'll see Vick ending up with a few more rushing TD's this year too.

I think Vick, Crumpler (etc) will suck up whatever TDs Duckett got - this of course assumes they will score as many TDs, which isn't exactly a given.Interestingly I have Portis and Dunn.

I don't think coaches are crazy about giving goal line carries to an injury-prone quarterback, no matter how fast and shifty he is. I think Crumpler's stock goes up here, but I really don't see Vick getting an appreciable jump.

Last year, Vick had 4 TDs on 7 carries inside the 5, including 4 TDs on 4 carries from the 1 or 2. Dunn had 1 TD on 7 carries inside the 5. (Typing this from memory--see the Crumpler thread from earlier today.)Big difference in success rate.

Clearly. I just think coaches are acutely aware of the risk-reward factor involved in getting that higher success rate.

FYI,The Coaches have Goal Line offensive plays specifically drawn up for Vick to carry the ball and have used those plays with great success. Not sure why you think that this year, they will suddenly scrap those plays?

Then throw in the Vick ad lib factor.

I definitely see an uptick for Vick's rushing TD's this year. Figure 6 as the floor & 10 as the ceiling.

My

If you think that will happen then count on his chances of getting another big time injury in the making. I think he's learned his lesson not to run as much or expect to say good bye to nice chunks of the season.