Watching the preseason has changed my mind about .................. (1 Viewer)

[PhantomJB]

Please list any assumptions / hypotheses you had going into the preseason that you are now (or soon) willing to say you were wrong about.

Tom Brady - Of course the rookies still need to prove they can play in the regular season, etc. I think having doubts about Brady's ability to put up Top 5 QB numbers this year is akin to having doubts about Peyton and A. Peterson last year. Seems the bigger the challenge the better the truly elite players perform.

Demaryius Thomas - I previously thought that the addition of Welker would dilute the value of all Denver WR's and wasn't planning on touching any of them at their ADP's. I still think this still holds for Welker and Decker, especially with the apparent emergence of Julius Thomas as yet another competitor for short range targets. But Thomas is truly a beast and he and Manning have a special rapport so now see him as actually one of the safer elite WR picks vs. previously being one of the riskier.

Darren McFadden - His ADP prior to training camp was around RB 16 and with his talent I thought there might be some upside given he is clearly the focal point of the offense But Oakland is proving to be such a train wreck I won't be touching this guy.

Detroit Lions - I thought they were a great candidate for a turnaround year. Huge red flags though after the CLE game since the sloppy and undisciplined play (e.g. Suh still committing personal fouls) continue to cast doubt on Schwartz as a viable HC (not having Megatron is no excuse IMO). The NE game coming up will be telling.

I know a lot of people think you can't draw any conclusions from the preseason. This thread is not for you.

 

[BroadwayG]

Colby Fleener will get hurt.

 

[jurb26]

When it comes to preseason, I really only let it I pact my view on rookies and basically nothing else. There is just too much variance with vets and teams are generally working on things we don't even know about. With rookies, you can at least see if they pass the "eye ball test." That said;

Hopkins is going to be a much better WR than I had thought. I questioned his ability to separate in the NFL as a prospect but I'm not seeing issues with it at all.

Austin on the other hand is going to struggle. I figured he would get open easily but he simply isn't.

Michael, this guy look very good. I knew he had measurable but he didn't flash all of his talent at A&M IMO. Looks like a true feature back someday.

Stacy has been a disappointment.

 

[silentcoach]

R.Bush. If/When healthy, he will be a ppr hog. I was unsure how involved he was going to be in the offense.

 

[cheese]

Maybe the coaching change will matter in Cleveland.

Maybe the WR don't matter to Brady.

 

[silentcoach]

Please list any assumptions / hypotheses you had going into the preseason that you are now (or soon) willing to say you were wrong about.

Darren McFadden - His ADP prior to training camp was around RB 16 and with his talent I thought there might be some upside given he is clearly the focal point of the offense But Oakland is proving to be such a train wreck I won't be touching this guy.

Agree on McFadden. I keep seeing the same stuff as last year. No thanks.

 

[meyerj31]

Johnathon Franklin - undraftable at this point.

Kenbrall Thompkins - very draftable... willing to take him in the 10th.

Ty Hilton - thought the switch to WCO would hurt him.... yea, right. How do you keep this guy off the field? Kid is dynamite and has Andrew Luck throwing to him.

David Wilson - thought this would be a total RBBC... but again, like Hilton, how do you keep this guy off the field? Not going to be a bellcow but I'm willing to take him in the 4th as a low-end RB2 with major upside.

Floyd - I wasn't paying a ton for him but getting him consistently in the 9th/10th... I'm not sure he's really warranted even that. He was smothered by Davon House man on man the first few series of the GB game. I think Davon is underrated, but still... a guy of his draft pedigree/hype should be able to win the 1:1's. His route running has been lackluster so far. Roberts in the 14th is looking better by the game.

Dunbar - Who? I didn't even know this guy a month ago. Now I think he's one of the premier handcuffs this year. He absolutely has the talent and is the clear feature back if (or when) Murray goes down. There's not a better RB pick in the 15th+ right now.

edit: I see Dunbar is out 3-4 weeks with a sprained ankle... I think that means you can get him even cheaper, as he'll likely be healthy if/when you need him this year. He's my late round flier in every draft this year.

 

[cstu]

Baldwin and Jenkins - I can admit they both suck.

 

[We Tigers]

Weeden is the biggest one for me. Looks much improved.

 

[shader]

I think preseason can be a great tool if you use it correctly. Just having a blow-up performance is rather meaningless. For interest, I put little stock in Weeden's fast start, other than the fact that he looks ok. No game-planning by defense can allow for bigtime performances.

So for me, I like to watch the physical talent of running backs and receivers. I love the way Lacy and Bernard have run the ball. I liked them better than Ball and Bell from a talent perspective BEFORE the preseason, and this preseason has done nothing but confirm my suspicions regarding those two. Ball and Bell may get more love because of perceived RBBC situations, but who is standing in Eddie Lacy's way? Is BJGE enough of a talent to sideline a potential stud in Bernard? I don't think so.

As far as WR goes, it's the little things. Seeing Brady throw to Amendola four times. Chris Givens continuing to catch long passes, and also running shorter routes. When Roddy left the game, Julio became an immediate stud. How good could he be? He looks practically unguardable, as does Dez Bryant.

 

[ppierce]

Shady looks to have a bounce back season.

 

[Kenny Powers]

Weeden is the biggest one for me. Looks much improved.

The improvement of 2nd year players who are turning 30 during the season has historically been big.

 

[zamboni]

Eddie Lacy - as many others would probably agree after the other night

After he fell in the draft and was the fourth rookie RB drafted, figured there must be something with his health, attitude, or some combination thereof. And that he would be mired in RBBC land.

But maybe the scouts got this one wrong - we'll see

 

[EBF]

Floyd - I wasn't paying a ton for him but getting him consistently in the 9th/10th... I'm not sure he's really warranted even that. He was smothered by Davon House man on man the first few series of the GB game. I think Davon is underrated, but still... a guy of his draft pedigree/hype should be able to win the 1:1's. His route running has been lackluster so far. Roberts in the 14th is looking better by the game.

If Floyd wasn't there, I would really like Roberts as a sleeper. I think Roberts is way better as an NFL player than people realize. I'd rate him on par with guys like Antonio Brown and Lance Moore. It didn't show last year because of Arizona's QB/OL problems. With those issues somewhat fixed, he might have WR3/WR4 value this year.

The presence of Floyd kind of complicates things though, as he's a wild card who could steal a lot of targets. That's why I like Roberts as more of a 2014 dynasty stash. His deal is up after this year and I look for him to get a starting job elsewhere.

 

[We Tigers]

Weeden is the biggest one for me. Looks much improved.

The improvement of 2nd year players who are turning 30 during the season has historically been big.

2nd year old man breakout theory, duh.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

When it comes to preseason, I really only let it I pact my view on rookies and basically nothing else. There is just too much variance with vets and teams are generally working on things we don't even know about. With rookies, you can at least see if they pass the "eye ball test." That said;

Hopkins is going to be a much better WR than I had thought. I questioned his ability to separate in the NFL as a prospect but I'm not seeing issues with it at all.

Austin on the other hand is going to struggle. I figured he would get open easily but he simply isn't.

Michael, this guy look very good. I knew he had measurable but he didn't flash all of his talent at A&M IMO. Looks like a true feature back someday.

Stacy has been a disappointment.

I don't know, Austin was wide open in the end zone and Bradford just panic chucked it right over his head. The next play they went right back to him in the redzone trying to throw him a little bubble screen type thing so he could scoot into the end zone, but it was sniffed out.

That type of usage is positive news.

He also caught a pass over the middle and got down safely while being tackled by a linebacker. Just kind of twisted down when he couldn't get any extra yardage. That's the kind of stuff that will keep him healthy in the NFL, and it's nice to see it confirmed as a natural talent of his.

 

[silentcoach]

Floyd - I wasn't paying a ton for him but getting him consistently in the 9th/10th... I'm not sure he's really warranted even that. He was smothered by Davon House man on man the first few series of the GB game. I think Davon is underrated, but still... a guy of his draft pedigree/hype should be able to win the 1:1's. His route running has been lackluster so far. Roberts in the 14th is looking better by the game.

If Floyd wasn't there, I would really like Roberts as a sleeper. I think Roberts is way better as an NFL player than people realize. I'd rate him on par with guys like Antonio Brown and Lance Moore. It didn't show last year because of Arizona's QB/OL problems. With those issues somewhat fixed, he might have WR3/WR4 value this year.

The presence of Floyd kind of complicates things though, as he's a wild card who could steal a lot of targets. That's why I like Roberts as more of a 2014 dynasty stash. His deal is up after this year and I look for him to get a starting job elsewhere.

I think Roberts may be fine.

Not that preseasons matters TOO much, but targets to date with Palmer as the QB:

Fitzgerald - 7

Roberts - 6

Floyd - 4

 

[Two Deep]

watching the preseason makes me realize there are a lot of late draft picks/free agents that get overlooked and shoved down the depth chart due to their draft position not their talent.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

Weeden has taken some nice strides and it that offense I think he can be agreat QB2 if you have a stud.

Don't like what I have seen in DET or CAR on offense.

Andrew Luck is going to throw.....a lot...could be top 5 this year in fantasy

Welker is still gonna get his

I'm not as high on Steven Jackson as I was earlier

I would hate to play against the Eagles offense

I hadn't paid much attention to Josh Gordon in the past....and even not much lately with the suspension....but dude can ball...I'm willing to wait out the suspension at his current ADP.....fo sho

Jordan Cameron....believe the hype

There may be fantasy points to be had in CLE like we haven't seen.......ever

Lynch and Turbin better watch out....Carroll won't be afraid to play the rook

Charles Woodson made a huge mistake......the Raiders still suck

 

[Daru99]

On the rookies:The big one for me is Lacy's emergence. Manuel is the real deal and watching Cordarelle Patterson last week was exciting - I feel he is closer to relevance than originally thought, 2013 impact is possible.

 

[Banger]

Chris Johnson - not that it necessarily "changed" my mind but affirmed what I thought going into the season that CJ will have a big year behind a much improved line.

TY - looks like a real gamebreaker and wasn't really on my radar entering the preseason

Britt - I think they are gonna take the air out of the ball this year and with K. Wright and Britt I don't know that there will be enough to go around

Clev offense - I don't know how effective they will be overall but Norv is running his offense with Gordon the main wr, Cameron the TE and Richardson the Rb. All 3 will have value and going into preseason I loved Gordon but Cameron wasn't on my radar.

Blackmon - I really liked the way he looked last game...reminded me of Dez in a way, plays with an edge. He's a knucklehead and you can get him really cheap with the suspension so I'll probably try and grab him in most leagues and take a shot at him.

 

[Bob Magaw]

When it comes to preseason, I really only let it I pact my view on rookies and basically nothing else. There is just too much variance with vets and teams are generally working on things we don't even know about. With rookies, you can at least see if they pass the "eye ball test." That said;

Hopkins is going to be a much better WR than I had thought. I questioned his ability to separate in the NFL as a prospect but I'm not seeing issues with it at all.

Austin on the other hand is going to struggle. I figured he would get open easily but he simply isn't.

Michael, this guy look very good. I knew he had measurable but he didn't flash all of his talent at A&M IMO. Looks like a true feature back someday.

Stacy has been a disappointment.

I don't know, Austin was wide open in the end zone and Bradford just panic chucked it right over his head. The next play they went right back to him in the redzone trying to throw him a little bubble screen type thing so he could scoot into the end zone, but it was sniffed out.That type of usage is positive news.

He also caught a pass over the middle and got down safely while being tackled by a linebacker. Just kind of twisted down when he couldn't get any extra yardage. That's the kind of stuff that will keep him healthy in the NFL, and it's nice to see it confirmed as a natural talent of his.

i was thinking same thing as last point when watching game...

was looking specifically for information about that, since that concern has been a common refrain...

a - he didn't look tiny to me, like say sproles, who while he isn't small but just short (once heard dave meggett described as what a normal proportioned individual would look like who had his feet and ankles chopped off ), does sometimes look like a pee wee league player height-wise.

b - on the four receptions, he never at any point looked like he was going to get snapped in half, was frail or didn't belong... i think pound-for-pound, he is stronger and tougher for his size than some credit him for... never missing a game or practice dating back to being a baltimore prep legend doesn't necessarily translate to NFL durability and longevity, but he does have an immaculate, pristine medical record, and a great many young prospects can't say that.

c - bigger isn't necessarily better, and with the decade+ trend of more and more offense/passing game-friendly rules changes culminating in historic passing numbers routinely amassed with increasing frequency, we should consider the possibility that Austin is the right player, in the right place (elated snead/fisher able to execute trade up) at the right time... does anybody really expect eddie lacy to have a longer career than austin? if you bioengineered a WR in a lab it would still look like calvin, dez, julio or demaryius... but let's just say austin comes along at a perfect time to surmount what might formerly have been a size (or lack thereof) obstacle...

d - already alluded to above, his ability to both play smart (hit the turf when appropriate - borderline HoF caliber rams WRs isac bruce and torry holt were masters of this) and field awareness, peripheral vision, instincts, proximity sense and body control to sense danger and subtly twist his body to avoid direct blows and turn them into glancing ones like a martial arts adept stands out... marcus was a master of this, as was a smaller athlete in another sport that can also be physical and involve injury risk - wayne gretsky... austin seems to have this same knack...

* good point that austin should have had an easy, walk in TD, except for uncharacteristically inaccurate overthrow by bradford... and that was in a half of play... if he had 1-2 TDs in full game, that would have completely changed the tenor of some of these preseason impressions...

 

[PhantomJB]

Floyd - I wasn't paying a ton for him but getting him consistently in the 9th/10th... I'm not sure he's really warranted even that. He was smothered by Davon House man on man the first few series of the GB game. I think Davon is underrated, but still... a guy of his draft pedigree/hype should be able to win the 1:1's. His route running has been lackluster so far. Roberts in the 14th is looking better by the game.

If Floyd wasn't there, I would really like Roberts as a sleeper. I think Roberts is way better as an NFL player than people realize. I'd rate him on par with guys like Antonio Brown and Lance Moore. It didn't show last year because of Arizona's QB/OL problems. With those issues somewhat fixed, he might have WR3/WR4 value this year.

The presence of Floyd kind of complicates things though, as he's a wild card who could steal a lot of targets. That's why I like Roberts as more of a 2014 dynasty stash. His deal is up after this year and I look for him to get a starting job elsewhere.

I think Roberts may be fine.

Not that preseasons matters TOO much, but targets to date with Palmer as the QB:

Fitzgerald - 7

Roberts - 6

Floyd - 4

Good info and interesting negative perceptions about Michael Floyd. He seemed to have been quite hyped during camp.

I didn't see the last game but articles like this and the amount I expected Palmer to be chucking it with Arians' offense had me thinking he had potentially a 1,000 yard season in him at a WR4 price.

http://arizonasports.com/40/1655130/Cards-coach-QB-rave-of-Michael-Floyds-development-potential

Will be watching the SD-AZ game closely next week.

 

[Beerguzzler]

Bell and Ball look ordinary.

Lacy and Gio look like potential star RBs.

 

[Man of Zen]

Bell and Ball look ordinary.

Lacy and Gio look like potential star RBs.

I feel the same way about Manning and Leaf, respectively, now that we've seen them in the preseason.

 

[JustinHawkins]

Biggest shocks for me are how good the following have looked

Weeden

Lacy

Hopkins & Patterson (for rookies)

Cameron

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Good thread, nothing like offering up a confessional booth with a priest right outside McCarran for those of us leaving on departing flights.

 

[Khy]

LeSean McCoy - I was higher on him than most to start (had him at around RB5 before camps) now I feel like it's hard to not argue that he could be RB2-3 with how many touches this offense is going to give him.

Chris Polk/Bryce Brown - If we ever get more definite clarity on who the #2 guy is they have crazy value in this offense.

Lacy - I wanted nothing to do with the guy and now I'm starting to question that.

Cordarrelle Patterson - He seems to be coming along better than anyone expected right out the gates. I drafted him in a couple of dynasty leagues assuming maybe in 2-3 years I may get something out of him when he gets a real QB and stuff. But you can just see how great his playmaking ability is on field. And the coaches haven't stopped raving about him all camp.

David Wilson - Every time the kid touches the ball I'm in awe at his ability. Short of one horribly blown block he really doesn't take negative yardage and he's shockingly powerful for his size/speed combination. It seemed like he'd take first contact at the LoS and still manage 5 yard carries. His pass blocking seems pretty solid so far also and his ability to catch out the backfield is something this team hasn't had since Tiki. I honestly feel the coaches see this and will use him more than most people think they will. He's going to be one of those guys that are just fun to watch on Sunday even if you're not a Giants fan.

Montee Ball - Looks worse than I thought he would... before camp I really thought he was going to just run away with this job and he's done everything but that.

Kenbrell Thompkins - He's going to have the best receiving stats on the team short of maybe Gronkowski if he comes back soon. The chemistry he seems to have with Brady reminds me of the chemistry Brady had with Moss or Welker.

The NFC East may be the best offensive division in the league this season. The Eagles look gross, if RG3 stays healthy the Redskins are going to be disgusting, if Murray can stay healthy and Dez can keep his head the Boys will be solid and if Wilson hits as big as I think the Giants will be a Top 5 offense at worst.

 

[Shutout]

The biggest impressions I came away with were guys that I unfortunately don't have on any ff teams.

Manuel-I never gave him a second, third, or fourth thought in drafts but I think he's got something. If nothing else, I actually want to watch the Bills play so I can watch him some more.

Thoughts I feel are now confirmed:

Lacy-In a very small sample, he has been what I thought.

Ball and Bell-Unfortunately, the same is true on these guys, although Bell gets a pass I suppose because he got dinged up. Maybe we haven't seen what he is yet. Hopefully, "what he is" isn't a guy that can't shake the constant minor injuries.

 

[ImTheScientist]

The Steelers. Im avoiding the team in general in fantasy drafts. The majority of the players are overrated due to them being steelers. Watched the game yesterday and that team is aweful, primarily due to the offensive line imo.

 

[ShaHBucks]

The Jets won't be as bad as we think. Sanchez is playing better under Marty Mornhinweg. He had some good drives and then fades as the game progresses. If they can play Rex Ryan defense and pound the ball I can see a 6-7 wins where they are still in wildcard contention late but don't make it. Buf-Mia are in the division and Ten-Cle-Oak are on the schedule. Total contrarian thought, but what I really mean is they won't be the worse team in the league.

 

[Khy]

The Steelers. Im avoiding the team in general in fantasy drafts. The majority of the players are overrated due to them being steelers. Watched the game yesterday and that team is aweful, primarily due to the offensive line imo.

Agree with this... I was more or less forced into taking Antonio Brown as a WR2 in my one redraft and it's literally the only player on my team that I look at and think "Man... I'm terrified about how this works". I just need to hope one of my sleepers actually hit in that league just incase

 

[steveski]

The Steelers. Im avoiding the team in general in fantasy drafts. The majority of the players are overrated due to them being steelers. Watched the game yesterday and that team is aweful, primarily due to the offensive line imo.

Agree with this... I was more or less forced into taking Antonio Brown as a WR2 in my one redraft and it's literally the only player on my team that I look at and think "Man... I'm terrified about how this works". I just need to hope one of my sleepers actually hit in that league just incase

I think Brown is going a little early for my liking but I think he should be very serviceable as a WR2. I like Sanders value at his ADP as well. Steelers did look awful yesterday, but I think they'll do just fine and somebody has to be catching passes and it won't be Wallace or Miller.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Don't forget that preseason is not normally a great indicator of how the season will play out.

 

[Khy]

The Steelers. Im avoiding the team in general in fantasy drafts. The majority of the players are overrated due to them being steelers. Watched the game yesterday and that team is aweful, primarily due to the offensive line imo.

Agree with this... I was more or less forced into taking Antonio Brown as a WR2 in my one redraft and it's literally the only player on my team that I look at and think "Man... I'm terrified about how this works". I just need to hope one of my sleepers actually hit in that league just incase

I think Brown is going a little early for my liking but I think he should be very serviceable as a WR2. I like Sanders value at his ADP as well. Steelers did look awful yesterday, but I think they'll do just fine and somebody has to be catching passes and it won't be Wallace or Miller.

Yeah... like I'm not vomiting over having him or anything. I just remember that pick took me the longest cause he was the best VBD for me at that point and I just really really didn't want to pick him. But there was literally nobody left at that point that I felt better drafting in the slot. I mean my WRs are Colston, Brown, Thompkins, Tavon (Return Yards league), Shorts and M. Williams in a start 3 WR league. So I'm probably fine. I just don't really like having Brown as my likely WR2. But in reality he may end up seeing the bench in favor of Shorts/Williams/Thompkins sooner rather than later as I like all of their situations better right now.

I just want nothing to do with the Steelers offense for fantasy this season... especially if Bell ends up being out for a significant amount of time.

 

[Sabertooth]

Please list any assumptions / hypotheses you had going into the preseason that you are now (or soon) willing to say you were wrong about.

Tom Brady - Of course the rookies still need to prove they can play in the regular season, etc. I think having doubts about Brady's ability to put up Top 5 QB numbers this year is akin to having doubts about Peyton and A. Peterson last year. Seems the bigger the challenge the better the truly elite players perform.

Demaryius Thomas - I previously thought that the addition of Welker would dilute the value of all Denver WR's and wasn't planning on touching any of them at their ADP's. I still think this still holds for Welker and Decker, especially with the apparent emergence of Julius Thomas as yet another competitor for short range targets. But Thomas is truly a beast and he and Manning have a special rapport so now see him as actually one of the safer elite WR picks vs. previously being one of the riskier.

Darren McFadden - His ADP prior to training camp was around RB 16 and with his talent I thought there might be some upside given he is clearly the focal point of the offense But Oakland is proving to be such a train wreck I won't be touching this guy.

Detroit Lions - I thought they were a great candidate for a turnaround year. Huge red flags though after the CLE game since the sloppy and undisciplined play (e.g. Suh still committing personal fouls) continue to cast doubt on Schwartz as a viable HC (not having Megatron is no excuse IMO). The NE game coming up will be telling.

I know a lot of people think you can't draw any conclusions from the preseason. This thread is not for you.

Brady just doesn't have the weapons. You mention Peyton Manning but he had weapons. Adrian is some type of alien life form so I don't know if he's a good comp for anyone. The problem with Brady is that he just doesn't have the horses to be elite. You talk about top 5. Ok. You have Rodgers, Brees, and Manning. Then you have RG3, Cam, Kaep, Romo, and Luck all nipping at the heels. I just don't see it. He'll be top 10, but the top 5 is going to be tough with some guys rushing for 6 or 7 scores.

 

[Lord Fantasy]

Waiting on QB.

Yes, the floor on the later QBs is higher, but watching Brees go to work is a good reminder that the best are still the best, and that a team with an attacking, pass-heavy offensive scheme is going to deliver the fantasy goods.

 

[Khy]

Please list any assumptions / hypotheses you had going into the preseason that you are now (or soon) willing to say you were wrong about.

Tom Brady - Of course the rookies still need to prove they can play in the regular season, etc. I think having doubts about Brady's ability to put up Top 5 QB numbers this year is akin to having doubts about Peyton and A. Peterson last year. Seems the bigger the challenge the better the truly elite players perform.

Demaryius Thomas - I previously thought that the addition of Welker would dilute the value of all Denver WR's and wasn't planning on touching any of them at their ADP's. I still think this still holds for Welker and Decker, especially with the apparent emergence of Julius Thomas as yet another competitor for short range targets. But Thomas is truly a beast and he and Manning have a special rapport so now see him as actually one of the safer elite WR picks vs. previously being one of the riskier.

Darren McFadden - His ADP prior to training camp was around RB 16 and with his talent I thought there might be some upside given he is clearly the focal point of the offense But Oakland is proving to be such a train wreck I won't be touching this guy.

Detroit Lions - I thought they were a great candidate for a turnaround year. Huge red flags though after the CLE game since the sloppy and undisciplined play (e.g. Suh still committing personal fouls) continue to cast doubt on Schwartz as a viable HC (not having Megatron is no excuse IMO). The NE game coming up will be telling.

I know a lot of people think you can't draw any conclusions from the preseason. This thread is not for you.

Brady just doesn't have the weapons. You mention Peyton Manning but he had weapons. Adrian is some type of alien life form so I don't know if he's a good comp for anyone. The problem with Brady is that he just doesn't have the horses to be elite. You talk about top 5. Ok. You have Rodgers, Brees, and Manning. Then you have RG3, Cam, Kaep, Romo, and Luck all nipping at the heels. I just don't see it. He'll be top 10, but the top 5 is going to be tough with some guys rushing for 6 or 7 scores.

This just doesn't make sense to me. Besides Randy Moss who has Brady EVER had as weapons that weren't his own creation?

Personally I don't count Welker as a weapon, he was nothing before coming to the Pats. Do we know for certain that Gronkowski would be as dominant on say... the Jags? Deion Branch? Danny Woodhead? Julian Edelman?

Just like all the other great QBs, Brady doesn't need weapons he creates weapons. If you have brains and good route running you're more valuable to someone like Brady than someone who is a freak but not as smart or not a fluid route runner. See Thompkins vs Dobson right now. Brady, Peyton, Eli, Rodgers, Brees these guys create talent around them. And they prove it year in and year out as guys come and go and they somehow always possess these 'weapons'.

What weapons does Eli have that he didn't create? Cruz, Nicks, Steve Smith, Jake Ballard, Kevin Boss all of these guys were good with Eli. Ballard, Smith and Boss left and what have they done since? Oh yeah nothing but retired and sat on the sidelines.

What weapons does Rodgers have that he didn't create? James Jones, Greg Jennings, Randle Cobb, Jordy Nelson etc.

Brees? Colston, Jimmy Graham, Devery Henderson, Lance Moore?

I can keep going. The point is these amazing weapon names you know were often the product of their QBs and the ones who left for teams with no QB talent ceased doing anything. Most of the guys these people had besides maybe Marvin Harrison were never Calvin or Larry Fitzgerald type of prospects. They were late round picks that were molded by their QBs. Anyone who left the team usually never came anywhere even remotely close to their production they had on the original teams.

 

[Sabertooth]

Please list any assumptions / hypotheses you had going into the preseason that you are now (or soon) willing to say you were wrong about.

Tom Brady - Of course the rookies still need to prove they can play in the regular season, etc. I think having doubts about Brady's ability to put up Top 5 QB numbers this year is akin to having doubts about Peyton and A. Peterson last year. Seems the bigger the challenge the better the truly elite players perform.

Demaryius Thomas - I previously thought that the addition of Welker would dilute the value of all Denver WR's and wasn't planning on touching any of them at their ADP's. I still think this still holds for Welker and Decker, especially with the apparent emergence of Julius Thomas as yet another competitor for short range targets. But Thomas is truly a beast and he and Manning have a special rapport so now see him as actually one of the safer elite WR picks vs. previously being one of the riskier.

Darren McFadden - His ADP prior to training camp was around RB 16 and with his talent I thought there might be some upside given he is clearly the focal point of the offense But Oakland is proving to be such a train wreck I won't be touching this guy.

Detroit Lions - I thought they were a great candidate for a turnaround year. Huge red flags though after the CLE game since the sloppy and undisciplined play (e.g. Suh still committing personal fouls) continue to cast doubt on Schwartz as a viable HC (not having Megatron is no excuse IMO). The NE game coming up will be telling.

I know a lot of people think you can't draw any conclusions from the preseason. This thread is not for you.

Brady just doesn't have the weapons. You mention Peyton Manning but he had weapons. Adrian is some type of alien life form so I don't know if he's a good comp for anyone. The problem with Brady is that he just doesn't have the horses to be elite. You talk about top 5. Ok. You have Rodgers, Brees, and Manning. Then you have RG3, Cam, Kaep, Romo, and Luck all nipping at the heels. I just don't see it. He'll be top 10, but the top 5 is going to be tough with some guys rushing for 6 or 7 scores.

This just doesn't make sense to me. Besides Randy Moss who has Brady EVER had as weapons that weren't his own creation?

Personally I don't count Welker as a weapon, he was nothing before coming to the Pats. Do we know for certain that Gronkowski would be as dominant on say... the Jags? Deion Branch? Danny Woodhead? Julian Edelman?

Just like all the other great QBs, Brady doesn't need weapons he creates weapons. If you have brains and good route running you're more valuable to someone like Brady than someone who is a freak but not as smart or not a fluid route runner. See Thompkins vs Dobson right now. Brady, Peyton, Eli, Rodgers, Brees these guys create talent around them. And they prove it year in and year out as guys come and go and they somehow always possess these 'weapons'.

What weapons does Eli have that he didn't create? Cruz, Nicks, Steve Smith, Jake Ballard, Kevin Boss all of these guys were good with Eli. Ballard, Smith and Boss left and what have they done since? Oh yeah nothing but retired and sat on the sidelines.

What weapons does Rodgers have that he didn't create? James Jones, Greg Jennings, Randle Cobb, Jordy Nelson etc.

Brees? Colston, Jimmy Graham, Devery Henderson, Lance Moore?

I can keep going. The point is these amazing weapon names you know were often the product of their QBs and the ones who left for teams with no QB talent ceased doing anything. Most of the guys these people had besides maybe Marvin Harrison were never Calvin or Larry Fitzgerald type of prospects. They were late round picks that were molded by their QBs. Anyone who left the team usually never came anywhere even remotely close to their production they had on the original teams.

Welker, Gronk and Hernandez come to mind immediately.

It's not just that Brady has to do as much with less, he has to do more with less. Guys like Romo and RG3 are coming on strong. Brady is a year older and has to train in several raw weapons. I don't see it.

 

[Khy]

Welker, Gronk and Hernandez come to mind immediately.

Welker was an undrafted FA that did literal nothing before becoming a Patriot. Gronk was a 2nd Round pick and Hernandez was a 4th Rounder. So sure, Gronk had a decently expected estimated value. Welker though? No, Brady made Welker.

 

[Sabertooth]

I wonder why Brady chose not to make Brandon Tate, Jeremy Ebert, Taylor Price, Matt Slater, and Chad Jackson? Weird.

 

[moondog]

The Steelers. Im avoiding the team in general in fantasy drafts. The majority of the players are overrated due to them being steelers. Watched the game yesterday and that team is aweful, primarily due to the offensive line imo.

I hear someone singing the Super Bowl blues

 

[sho nuff]

AGreeing with others on Lacy...but overall just the GB RB situation.

My first thought was full blown RBBC. Starks was looking solid in camp, still expecting Harris back, Lacy doing well and the skill set of Franklin.

Lacy took it over by showing how good he can be. If MM commits enough to the run, I don't see the other backs doing enough to take carries away from Lacy.

 

[werdnoynek]

Welker, Gronk and Hernandez come to mind immediately.

Welker was an undrafted FA that did literal nothing before becoming a Patriot. Gronk was a 2nd Round pick and Hernandez was a 4th Rounder. So sure, Gronk had a decently expected estimated value. Welker though? No, Brady made Welker.

He made him fantasy relevant sure... Welker was his favorite target. It's no coincidence though that Welker is one of the hardest working WR's in the league.

 

[ImTheScientist]

The Steelers. Im avoiding the team in general in fantasy drafts. The majority of the players are overrated due to them being steelers. Watched the game yesterday and that team is aweful, primarily due to the offensive line imo.

Agree with this... I was more or less forced into taking Antonio Brown as a WR2 in my one redraft and it's literally the only player on my team that I look at and think "Man... I'm terrified about how this works". I just need to hope one of my sleepers actually hit in that league just incase

I think Brown is going a little early for my liking but I think he should be very serviceable as a WR2. I like Sanders value at his ADP as well. Steelers did look awful yesterday, but I think they'll do just fine and somebody has to be catching passes and it won't be Wallace or Miller.

Yeah... like I'm not vomiting over having him or anything. I just remember that pick took me the longest cause he was the best VBD for me at that point and I just really really didn't want to pick him. But there was literally nobody left at that point that I felt better drafting in the slot. I mean my WRs are Colston, Brown, Thompkins, Tavon (Return Yards league), Shorts and M. Williams in a start 3 WR league. So I'm probably fine. I just don't really like having Brown as my likely WR2. But in reality he may end up seeing the bench in favor of Shorts/Williams/Thompkins sooner rather than later as I like all of their situations better right now.

I just want nothing to do with the Steelers offense for fantasy this season... especially if Bell ends up being out for a significant amount of time.

Im not sure Bell can even help them. The main issue looks to be their offensive line. Bell doesn't strike me as the type of back that can overcome a poor offensive line.

 

[PhantomJB]

Please list any assumptions / hypotheses you had going into the preseason that you are now (or soon) willing to say you were wrong about.

Tom Brady - Of course the rookies still need to prove they can play in the regular season, etc. I think having doubts about Brady's ability to put up Top 5 QB numbers this year is akin to having doubts about Peyton and A. Peterson last year. Seems the bigger the challenge the better the truly elite players perform.

Demaryius Thomas - I previously thought that the addition of Welker would dilute the value of all Denver WR's and wasn't planning on touching any of them at their ADP's. I still think this still holds for Welker and Decker, especially with the apparent emergence of Julius Thomas as yet another competitor for short range targets. But Thomas is truly a beast and he and Manning have a special rapport so now see him as actually one of the safer elite WR picks vs. previously being one of the riskier.

Darren McFadden - His ADP prior to training camp was around RB 16 and with his talent I thought there might be some upside given he is clearly the focal point of the offense But Oakland is proving to be such a train wreck I won't be touching this guy.

Detroit Lions - I thought they were a great candidate for a turnaround year. Huge red flags though after the CLE game since the sloppy and undisciplined play (e.g. Suh still committing personal fouls) continue to cast doubt on Schwartz as a viable HC (not having Megatron is no excuse IMO). The NE game coming up will be telling.

I know a lot of people think you can't draw any conclusions from the preseason. This thread is not for you.

Brady just doesn't have the weapons. You mention Peyton Manning but he had weapons. Adrian is some type of alien life form so I don't know if he's a good comp for anyone. The problem with Brady is that he just doesn't have the horses to be elite. You talk about top 5. Ok. You have Rodgers, Brees, and Manning. Then you have RG3, Cam, Kaep, Romo, and Luck all nipping at the heels. I just don't see it. He'll be top 10, but the top 5 is going to be tough with some guys rushing for 6 or 7 scores.

This just doesn't make sense to me. Besides Randy Moss who has Brady EVER had as weapons that weren't his own creation?

Personally I don't count Welker as a weapon, he was nothing before coming to the Pats. Do we know for certain that Gronkowski would be as dominant on say... the Jags? Deion Branch? Danny Woodhead? Julian Edelman?

Just like all the other great QBs, Brady doesn't need weapons he creates weapons. If you have brains and good route running you're more valuable to someone like Brady than someone who is a freak but not as smart or not a fluid route runner. See Thompkins vs Dobson right now. Brady, Peyton, Eli, Rodgers, Brees these guys create talent around them. And they prove it year in and year out as guys come and go and they somehow always possess these 'weapons'.

What weapons does Eli have that he didn't create? Cruz, Nicks, Steve Smith, Jake Ballard, Kevin Boss all of these guys were good with Eli. Ballard, Smith and Boss left and what have they done since? Oh yeah nothing but retired and sat on the sidelines.

What weapons does Rodgers have that he didn't create? James Jones, Greg Jennings, Randle Cobb, Jordy Nelson etc.

Brees? Colston, Jimmy Graham, Devery Henderson, Lance Moore?

I can keep going. The point is these amazing weapon names you know were often the product of their QBs and the ones who left for teams with no QB talent ceased doing anything. Most of the guys these people had besides maybe Marvin Harrison were never Calvin or Larry Fitzgerald type of prospects. They were late round picks that were molded by their QBs. Anyone who left the team usually never came anywhere even remotely close to their production they had on the original teams.

Welker, Gronk and Hernandez come to mind immediately.

It's not just that Brady has to do as much with less, he has to do more with less. Guys like Romo and RG3 are coming on strong. Brady is a year older and has to train in several raw weapons. I don't see it.

This is great because I'm trying to identify what it is people have actually seen that changes their mind about what they previously thought through reading, analysis, etc.

On paper sure it appears Brady's lack of proven weapons will hold him back from another elite QB FF finish. Khy does a great job debating this but in the end it can't be proven one way or another before anyone's FF draft.

My point is that having watched Brady he is more laser focused than ever. The dude is on a mission. Kind of like he is trying to make this season his Magnum Opus.

People can argue all they want that it's the preseason and teams haven't game planned, etc, etc. I get what makes the preseason artificial.

But for NE to be this sharp this early to me shows they have put in the work with all the new / young guys to build a platform for the regular season that will show very little (if any) dropoff in performance regardless of who's name is on the back of the jersey.

We'll see but personally I'm trusting my eyes on this one.

 

[Sabertooth]

I disagree. I think he was more laser focused during the 2007 season. Perhaps 2011 as well.

They are sharp because defenses are vanilla.

 

[Anarchy99]

Please list any assumptions / hypotheses you had going into the preseason that you are now (or soon) willing to say you were wrong about.

Tom Brady - Of course the rookies still need to prove they can play in the regular season, etc. I think having doubts about Brady's ability to put up Top 5 QB numbers this year is akin to having doubts about Peyton and A. Peterson last year. Seems the bigger the challenge the better the truly elite players perform.

Demaryius Thomas - I previously thought that the addition of Welker would dilute the value of all Denver WR's and wasn't planning on touching any of them at their ADP's. I still think this still holds for Welker and Decker, especially with the apparent emergence of Julius Thomas as yet another competitor for short range targets. But Thomas is truly a beast and he and Manning have a special rapport so now see him as actually one of the safer elite WR picks vs. previously being one of the riskier.

Darren McFadden - His ADP prior to training camp was around RB 16 and with his talent I thought there might be some upside given he is clearly the focal point of the offense But Oakland is proving to be such a train wreck I won't be touching this guy.

Detroit Lions - I thought they were a great candidate for a turnaround year. Huge red flags though after the CLE game since the sloppy and undisciplined play (e.g. Suh still committing personal fouls) continue to cast doubt on Schwartz as a viable HC (not having Megatron is no excuse IMO). The NE game coming up will be telling.

I know a lot of people think you can't draw any conclusions from the preseason. This thread is not for you.

Brady just doesn't have the weapons. You mention Peyton Manning but he had weapons. Adrian is some type of alien life form so I don't know if he's a good comp for anyone. The problem with Brady is that he just doesn't have the horses to be elite. You talk about top 5. Ok. You have Rodgers, Brees, and Manning. Then you have RG3, Cam, Kaep, Romo, and Luck all nipping at the heels. I just don't see it. He'll be top 10, but the top 5 is going to be tough with some guys rushing for 6 or 7 scores.

When Manning first suited up for Denver, who did the Broncos have that had really done much of anything in the NFL pre-Peyton?

Rodgers and Brees really haven't had elite players catching the ball. If you want to say Graham is elite, the Pats have Gronk.

 

[Sabertooth]

I laugh at how defensive Pats fans get. Fact, they don't have their top 4 weapons from last year. But I guess it's all Brady. Maybe it is. Maybe that's why they haven't won a Super Bowl in 10 years.

 

[GroveDiesel]

I'm not sure if it's trolling or what, but Brady and the Pats have looked fantastic so far. That O-line is massive and done a great job. Amendola has a great QB throwing him the ball for once and looks like he could be a monster as long as he's healthy. I've read rave after rave about Brady from every expert/analyst that has watched him this preseason including some that I really respect.

I hate the Pats. I wish that Brady and the Pats looked ready to crap the bed. But that seems to be in direct contradiction to every piece of visual evidence available to this point.