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Way Too Early Look At The Playoff Picture (2018 Season) (1 Viewer)

It's very easy to dismiss the Eagles because of their injuries on offense and the way the defense looked against the Bucs. However, the Eagles had two similar defensive games like that last year against the Giants. For whatever reason, Jim Schwartz has days where his pass defense can't cover anything. Except for those hiccups, the Eagles defense is solid. And make no mistake, the Bucs have a good passing offense.

As for the offense, I cannot stress enough how important Alshon Jeffery is to this offense. Just compare the Eagles offense in 2016 to 2017. His presence not only gives Wentz another option, it opens things up for Ertz and Agholor. Once the receivers are getting open, then the running game opens up. Goedart also looked like Rico Gathers on steroids now that Wentz is at QB.

Write off the Eagles if you want, but I won't do it until I see how they are with a healthy Jeffery in the lineup. If they struggle then, well, they probably aren't a contender this year.

 
Give the Vikes credit against the Rams on the road. They're back solidly in tier 2 by themselves, but despite a close game score-wise, the Rams are the class of the NFC in tier 1 (duh). You just get the feeling they can't be beat right now. The game wasn't as close as the score, IMO. Let's see what the rest of the week brings for tier 3.

AFC still unsettled in my view. Maybe things will shake out a bit this weekend.

 
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With the NFC already in the books prior to MNF, the top tiers remain the same with the Rams in 1 & the Vikes in 2.

Tier 3 is still muddled, but give Chi town the arrow up icon with their offensive showing this week. If the Bears can score some points, they'll be a legitimate contender. Philly & Atlanta arrow down. Both are having serious issues with the back end on D. Saints, Packers, & Panthers holding steady.

Sleeper team? Whoever can win the East if Philly implodes. They have a chance to put it together with Wentz looking good, but MUST fix a leaky secondary.

Thoughts on the AFC after MNF. 

 
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My tiers right now:

Super Bowl contenders: Rams, Saints, Chiefs, Patriots.

I would put the Rams a notch ahead, except for some injury issues and that they really don't have a home field advantage. That makes them vulnerable in the playoffs.

Playoff Teams but likely playoff fodder: Texans

Based on their division and schedule, it is hard for me to not see the Texans win the AFC South. Of course, Bill O'Brain is the coach so anything could happen.

Not There yet but could be dangerous: Redskins, Eagles, Vikings, Packers, Bears, Panthers, Falcons, Seahawks, Chargers, Steelers, Bengals, Ravens

A whole teams here who are either winning but unproven yet or teams that are uneven but have the talent to turn it on.

In the mix, but unlikely: Cowboys, Lions, Buccaneers, Titans, Dolphins, Jags

Still have a chance, but will have to get hot and surprise some people.

Not this year: Jets, Colts, Broncos

Not enough to make it this year

Jockeying for draft position: Bills, Browns, Raiders, Giants, Cardinals, 49ers

No explanation necessary

Note: Tier 2 isn't really ahead of Tier 3, just a distinction on teams I think are pretty certain to make the playoffs who are not SB contenders.

 
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My tiers right now:

Super Bowl contenders: Rams, Saints, Chiefs, Patriots.

I would put the Rams a notch ahead, except for some injury issues and that they really don't have a home field advantage. That makes them vulnerable in the playoffs.

Playoff Teams but likely playoff fodder: Texans

Based on their division and schedule, it is hard for me to not see the Texans win the AFC South. Of course, Bill O'Brain is the coach so anything could happen.

Not There yet but could be dangerous: Redskins, Eagles, Vikings, Packers, Bears, Panthers, Falcons, Seahawks, Chargers, Steelers, Bengals, Ravens

A whole teams here who are either winning but unproven yet or teams that are uneven but have the talent to turn it on.

In the mix, but unlikely: Cowboys, Lions, Buccaneers, Titans, Dolphins, Jags

Still have a chance, but will have to get hot and surprise some people.

Not this year: Jets, Colts, Broncos

Not enough to make it this year

Jockeying for draft position: Bills, Browns, Raiders, Giants, Cardinals, 49ers

No explanation necessary

Note: Tier 2 isn't really ahead of Tier 3, just a distinction on teams I think are pretty certain to make the playoffs who are not SB contenders.
I'm not counting the Colts out yet.  Reich is doing a great job and a product of the Eagles mentality of coaching.  

I look at their schedule for rest of the season and don't see anyone scary at this point for them.  Jaguars and Titans at home next two weeks and could be 2-1 in the division.

 
I'm not counting the Colts out yet.  Reich is doing a great job and a product of the Eagles mentality of coaching.  

I look at their schedule for rest of the season and don't see anyone scary at this point for them.  Jaguars and Titans at home next two weeks and could be 2-1 in the division.
Good points. With Luck looking good, I probably should flip flop the Jags and Colts. I think I put the Jags as still in the mix primarily because of their defense last year. They are definitely not performing as well this year, and their offense without Fournette has taken a step back and re-exposed Bortles for what he is. The Colts could definitely have a good second half of the season. As an Eagle's fan, I have a lot of respect for Reich.

 
Good points. With Luck looking good, I probably should flip flop the Jags and Colts. I think I put the Jags as still in the mix primarily because of their defense last year. They are definitely not performing as well this year, and their offense without Fournette has taken a step back and re-exposed Bortles for what he is. The Colts could definitely have a good second half of the season. As an Eagle's fan, I have a lot of respect for Reich.
That is the one division that no one really sticks out.  The Colts loss to the Texans earlier this year hurts them badly, but still only 0-1 right now.

Colts fans have to be optimistic.  Their OL looks really good - keeping Luck upright and their running game has been on fire.  Enjoy seeing coaches like Reich (and Pederson) be aggressive with their play calling and not conforming to stuff that's been convential for 40 years like punting on 4th and 1.

 
As of today:

NFC

3- Washington over 6- Seattle

4- Chicago over 5- Carolina

1- Los Angeles over 4- Chicago

2-:New Orleans over 3- Washington

1- Los Angeles over 2- New Orleans

AFC

6- Cinncinati over 3- Pittsburgh

4- Houston over 5- Los Angeles

1- Kansas City over 6- Cinncinati

2- New England over 4- Houston

2- New England over 1- Kansas City

Super Bowl

Los Angeles over New England

Don't see the title games being much different come January unless Philly, Minny or Jax get their #### together. 

 
Hijacking @dhockster 's system (with a few changes) cause I liked it.
 

Super Bowl contenders: Rams, Saints, Chiefs, Patriots.

Likely Playoffs Teams but not quite what it takes to win the title:  Texans, Chargers, Steelers, Panthers, Bears, Vikings

Not there yet but could be dangerous if they catch fire: Eagles, Packers, Falcons, Bengals

In the mix if they can put a winning streak together:  Cowboys, Dolphins, Ravens, Seahawks, Redskins, Colts

Not this year: Lions, Bucs, Titans, Jags

Jockeying for draft position: Jets, Broncos, Bills, Browns, Raiders, Giants, Cardinals, 49ers

 
Hijacking @dhockster 's system (with a few changes) cause I liked it.
 

Super Bowl contenders: Rams, Saints, Chiefs, Patriots.

Likely Playoffs Teams but not quite what it takes to win the title:  Texans, Chargers, Steelers, Panthers, Bears, Vikings

Not there yet but could be dangerous if they catch fire: Eagles, Packers, Falcons, Bengals

In the mix if they can put a winning streak together:  Cowboys, Dolphins, Ravens, Seahawks, Redskins, Colts

Not this year: Lions, Bucs, Titans, Jags

Jockeying for draft position: Jets, Broncos, Bills, Browns, Raiders, Giants, Cardinals, 49ers
IMO the Chargers are contender level. No other team is going to add a player of the caliber of Bosa down the stretch. That should provide a boost to the defense, which is already playing well. 

 
IMO the Chargers are contender level. No other team is going to add a player of the caliber of Bosa down the stretch. That should provide a boost to the defense, which is already playing well. 
Curious your thoughts on Anthony Lynn. Is he showing he is a good coach? Sometimes teams win despite their coach due to an easy schedule (Texans). I don't watch enough Chargers to know if he is doing a good job or not. 

The other two contenders in the AFC both have established coaches (Reid, Belicheck), which I think makes a difference in the playoffs 

 
Curious your thoughts on Anthony Lynn. Is he showing he is a good coach? Sometimes teams win despite their coach due to an easy schedule (Texans). I don't watch enough Chargers to know if he is doing a good job or not. 

The other two contenders in the AFC both have established coaches (Reid, Belicheck), which I think makes a difference in the playoffs 
This is a great point. Obviously, Lynn does not measure up to Belichick, but who does? Reid hasn't exactly been a stellar postseason coach and is 1-6 in the postseason over the past 9 years, so I'm not sure him being an established HC conveys any level of advantage. In fact, it could be just the opposite, since the lack of postseason success in KC has become a monkey on his back.

IMO the jury remains out on how good Lynn is, and I haven't formed a strong opinion on him yet. I wasn't impressed at the outset of last season, but it's hard to argue with the results on his watch since the first 4 games last year... the team is 15-5 over its past 20 games. He seems to have had a strong positive effect on the culture of the team, and the players seem to like and respect him. On the other hand, special teams have been a disaster for two years running now, and that is 100% on him.

 
This is a great point. Obviously, Lynn does not measure up to Belichick, but who does? Reid hasn't exactly been a stellar postseason coach and is 1-6 in the postseason over the past 9 years, so I'm not sure him being an established HC conveys any level of advantage. In fact, it could be just the opposite, since the lack of postseason success in KC has become a monkey on his back.

IMO the jury remains out on how good Lynn is, and I haven't formed a strong opinion on him yet. I wasn't impressed at the outset of last season, but it's hard to argue with the results on his watch since the first 4 games last year... the team is 15-5 over its past 20 games. He seems to have had a strong positive effect on the culture of the team, and the players seem to like and respect him. On the other hand, special teams have been a disaster for two years running now, and that is 100% on him.
Good points on Reid. Being an Eagle fan, I do note there is a big difference in Andy Reid postseason with Jim Johnson as Def. Coordinator (10-7, 5 conference Championship games, 1 Super Bowl) and Andy Reid without Jim Johnson (1-6, No Conference Championship games). I do think he is still in the top 25% of NFL coaches. I don't know if Anthony Lynn has proven that yet. Sounds like you are not sure either. Obviously, if the Chargers get to the playoffs we will get to learn a whole lot more about him.

 
Just Win Baby said:
IMO the Chargers are contender level. No other team is going to add a player of the caliber of Bosa down the stretch. That should provide a boost to the defense, which is already playing well. 
agree that Bosa coming back will be a boost....but at some point the Chiefs should be adding Berry and Houston back to their defense ....so I wouldn't necessarily say "no other team"....those two coming back would also be a pretty big boost/potential impact....

 
dhockster said:
Good points on Reid. Being an Eagle fan, I do note there is a big difference in Andy Reid postseason with Jim Johnson as Def. Coordinator (10-7, 5 conference Championship games, 1 Super Bowl) and Andy Reid without Jim Johnson (1-6, No Conference Championship games). I do think he is still in the top 25% of NFL coaches. I don't know if Anthony Lynn has proven that yet. Sounds like you are not sure either. Obviously, if the Chargers get to the playoffs we will get to learn a whole lot more about him.
I feel like I'm always saying "this is the Chargers' year" but they do actually seem like they're a lot stronger this year.  I could see them being somewhat of a contender in that I think they could beat KC or NE but not both. I just don't see them in the SB this year but the AFCC wouldn't surprise me in the least.

 
Good points. With Luck looking good, I probably should flip flop the Jags and Colts. I think I put the Jags as still in the mix primarily because of their defense last year. They are definitely not performing as well this year, and their offense without Fournette has taken a step back and re-exposed Bortles for what he is. The Colts could definitely have a good second half of the season. As an Eagle's fan, I have a lot of respect for Reich.
Colts looking good, control their own destiny to the playoffs.  I think the Eagles really miss Reich :bag:

 
NFCE is still in a flux. McCoy is the starter in Was, I don’t think anything is guaranteed. The Cowboys & Eagles could still sneak in.

 
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NFCE is still in a flux. McCoy is the starter in Was, I don’t think anything is guaranteed. The Cowboys & Eagles could still sneak in.
Man, you guys are looking good. If they pull it off this year does Drew come back or go out on top? He’s a great dude, would love to see him get another one. 

 
Man, you guys are looking good. If they pull it off this year does Drew come back or go out on top? He’s a great dude, would love to see him get another one. 
Yeah thanks it’s amazing. I just try to watch every pass, every handoff because it’s a golden time here. Lots of rumors here about whether Drew comes back if they win it, there’s a lot of talk he won’t. He’ll have it all at that point. The whole city’s behind him, home games are electric.

Lots of Eagles fans travelled for the game Btw, great folks, super knowledgeable about football, good visitors for the town and at the game. Best of luck to y’all this year.

 
Man, you guys are looking good. If they pull it off this year does Drew come back or go out on top? He’s a great dude, would love to see him get another one. 
i think he sticks around. as long as he's playing well and his health holds then he has no reason to lay down. he's also got a chip on his shoulder. Brady chatter is about how he wants to play until 45? Brees is playing better and wants to cement his place as GOAT.

 
i think he sticks around. as long as he's playing well and his health holds then he has no reason to lay down. he's also got a chip on his shoulder. Brady chatter is about how he wants to play until 45? Brees is playing better and wants to cement his place as GOAT.
Would love to see Brees play longer than Brady.

 
Yeah thanks it’s amazing. I just try to watch every pass, every handoff because it’s a golden time here. Lots of rumors here about whether Drew comes back if they win it, there’s a lot of talk he won’t. He’ll have it all at that point. The whole city’s behind him, home games are electric.

Lots of Eagles fans travelled for the game Btw, great folks, super knowledgeable about football, good visitors for the town and at the game. Best of luck to y’all this year.
I don't understand all the "going out on top" talk.  I think there's almost no chance he retires if they win it all.  He's got lots of football still left in him and wants to compile more stats.

Saints are unreal.  How the hell did Tampa go into NO and beat them week 1?  Crazy to think that now.

 
Updated:

Super Bowl contenders: Saints, Rams, Chiefs, Patriots.

Likely Playoffs Teams.  Could make a deep run but not quite what it takes to win the title:  Texans, Chargers, Steelers, Bears

Not there yet but could be dangerous if they catch fire:  Packers, Panthers, Vikings, Colts, Seahawks

In the mix for playoffs if they can put a winning streak together:  Cowboys, Dolphins, Eagles, Ravens, Redskins, Falcons, Bengles, Titans

Not this year: Lions, Bucs, Jags

Jockeying for draft position: Jets, Broncos, Bills, Browns, Raiders, Giants, Cardinals, 49ers

 
Updated:

Super Bowl contenders: Saints, Rams, Chiefs, Patriots.

Likely Playoffs Teams.  Could make a deep run but not quite what it takes to win the title:  Texans, Chargers, Steelers, Bears

Not there yet but could be dangerous if they catch fire:  Packers, Panthers, Vikings, Colts, Seahawks

In the mix for playoffs if they can put a winning streak together:  Cowboys, Dolphins, Eagles, Ravens, Redskins, Falcons, Bengles, Titans

Not this year: Lions, Bucs, Jags

Jockeying for draft position: Jets, Broncos, Bills, Browns, Raiders, Giants, Cardinals, 49ers
Are you basing your Super Bowl Contender rating on the Patriots on their 2018 performance thus far or because the Patriots should always be contenders as long as they have Brady+Belichick?    I am not arguing that they shouldn't be, I am just curious to your reasoning.

 
Are you basing your Super Bowl Contender rating on the Patriots on their 2018 performance thus far or because the Patriots should always be contenders as long as they have Brady+Belichick?    I am not arguing that they shouldn't be, I am just curious to your reasoning.
Both.  Their remaining schedule is quite easy, they should win 4-5 more and end up at 11-12 wins.  I think this could be enough for a bye.  Also, yes... once they are in the playoffs, I would consider them a Super Bowl contender. 

Current Vegas odds to win the SB have the top 4 teams in order:  Saints, Rams, Chiefs, Patriots.  I agree with that.

 
Both.  Their remaining schedule is quite easy, they should win 4-5 more and end up at 11-12 wins.  I think this could be enough for a bye.  Also, yes... once they are in the playoffs, I would consider them a Super Bowl contender. 

Current Vegas odds to win the SB have the top 4 teams in order:  Saints, Rams, Chiefs, Patriots.  I agree with that.
Yeah I do too.

Regarding the Pats schedule:  The Patriots have clearly been the best team for more than a decade but playing in that soft division sure doesn't hurt.  

 
Yeah I do too.

Regarding the Pats schedule:  The Patriots have clearly been the best team for more than a decade but playing in that soft division sure doesn't hurt.  
How many coaching changes have been in the AFC East over the past decade 1/2? It's crazy how soft that division has been other than the Patriots for so long. 

 
of the contenders, give me the Texans and you can have the field.they're going to make a LOT of noise in the post season.they can run with anyone. and they're white hot right now. Chargers will always be that enigma - you think they're going to do it,finally make a playoff run, and they stink it up against a bad Denver team. I don't get SD, err, L.A..not buying what they're selling.also not buying the Chiefs Andy Reid is terrible in postseason. Pats will bury them if they play again. Pitt keeps puiing lightning out of their a_ _es here..they're resilient as heck a tough out. Seahawks are they're equals in the NFC - they're a tough out no matter who they play , if they make the postseason.

Saints look unstoppable for anyone not named LA Rams. they'll meet again. Baltimore might be a wildcard.Cowboys get in, Redskins squeak in. Vikings fall short ( have a look at their remaining schedule, next 3 packers, pats(away), hawks(away).easily lose 2 of 3 here.

Colts should make it. I'd probably put money on the Texans being in the AFC championship game, probably vs. NE. there's always a surprise team..and Rams v. Saints in the NFC.or Seahawks.

 
NFCE closing schedules:

Pokes - 8-6 (4-1 in Division)

  • Vs TB
  • @NYG
Phi - 7-7 (1-0 vs Was) (0-2 vs Dal) (3-2 in Division)

  • Vs Hou
  • @Was
Was - 7-7 (0-1 vs PHI) (1-1 vs Dal) (2-3 in Division)

  • @Ten
  • Vs Phi
*****************

NFC Wild Card:

Seattle - 8-6:

  • Vs KC
  • Vs Ari
Min 7-6-1:

  • @Det
  • Vs Chi
 
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The bears are so going to win it all. New Orleans looked pretty impressive up until a few weeks ago. Now they look mediocre at best. And the Rams are completely overrated as the last couple of weeks proved. The NFC is wide open and the bears are primed to take it.

 
The bears are so going to win it all. New Orleans looked pretty impressive up until a few weeks ago. Now they look mediocre at best. And the Rams are completely overrated as the last couple of weeks proved. The NFC is wide open and the bears are primed to take it.
with Trubisky?  not happening

 
Even with your defense, you can't make it through the playoffs on the road.  
I don't know that they'll need to play very much on the road. They're currently the three seed. The Rams are two and they've looked absolutely awful the last few weeks. The Saints are one but they've come back down to Earth. The bears aren't going to lose a game for the rest of the regular season. That will put them at 12-4. Given how the Rams have been playing, that might be enough to give the bears the two seed, especially since they've beaten the Rams. And who knows, maybe New Orleans falters, too. 

The point is, it's very conceivable that the bears will only have to play one game on the road in the playoffs. I think they'll definitely be holding the trophy in a couple months.

 
I don't know that they'll need to play very much on the road. They're currently the three seed. The Rams are two and they've looked absolutely awful the last few weeks. The Saints are one but they've come back down to Earth. The bears aren't going to lose a game for the rest of the regular season. That will put them at 12-4. Given how the Rams have been playing, that might be enough to give the bears the two seed, especially since they've beaten the Rams. And who knows, maybe New Orleans falters, too. 

The point is, it's very conceivable that the bears will only have to play one game on the road in the playoffs. I think they'll definitely be holding the trophy in a couple months.
see 2009

 
I don't know that they'll need to play very much on the road. They're currently the three seed. The Rams are two and they've looked absolutely awful the last few weeks. The Saints are one but they've come back down to Earth. The bears aren't going to lose a game for the rest of the regular season. That will put them at 12-4. Given how the Rams have been playing, that might be enough to give the bears the two seed, especially since they've beaten the Rams. And who knows, maybe New Orleans falters, too. 

The point is, it's very conceivable that the bears will only have to play one game on the road in the playoffs. I think they'll definitely be holding the trophy in a couple months.
Friendly post here: don’t count your chickens before they hatch. Worry about getting past the 49ers next week on the road first. It feels like a classic trap game (which happened to Seattle yesterday) if the Bears don’t show up after beating the Packers/winning the division at last. Every good team goes through a slump in every sport. It’s part of the process and the Bears had theirs earlier this season. Also, that defense is starting to get hit by injuries and plays better at home. On the road? It’s 50/50, in my opinion.

Btw, regardless of last night’s Sunday Night Football game, I still think the Rams win out by beating Zona (super bad offense) and SF (bad team going to LA). But like the Bears, gotta win out/don’t take any team lightly. The Saints will start playing better football again, because all good teams adjust as a season goes on.

 
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I don't know that they'll need to play very much on the road. They're currently the three seed. The Rams are two and they've looked absolutely awful the last few weeks. The Saints are one but they've come back down to Earth. The bears aren't going to lose a game for the rest of the regular season. That will put them at 12-4. Given how the Rams have been playing, that might be enough to give the bears the two seed, especially since they've beaten the Rams. And who knows, maybe New Orleans falters, too. 

The point is, it's very conceivable that the bears will only have to play one game on the road in the playoffs. I think they'll definitely be holding the trophy in a couple months.
they played poorly for the Dallas game and two quarters of the recent Tampa game. This is "coming back to Earth"? I have no idea of how they'll play tonight but your analysis is pretty ridiculous.

 
I don't know that they'll need to play very much on the road. They're currently the three seed. The Rams are two and they've looked absolutely awful the last few weeks. The Saints are one but they've come back down to Earth. The bears aren't going to lose a game for the rest of the regular season. That will put them at 12-4. Given how the Rams have been playing, that might be enough to give the bears the two seed, especially since they've beaten the Rams. And who knows, maybe New Orleans falters, too. 

The point is, it's very conceivable that the bears will only have to play one game on the road in the playoffs. I think they'll definitely be holding the trophy in a couple months.
Playing the Saints in New Orleans is a whole different animal. I was there for the Eagles/Saints game about a month ago, and that crowd is LOUD. With that defense, the Bears can probably hang for awhile with the Saints, but I have a hard time seeing Trubisky being able to do enough to win the game in that hostile environment. But that is why they play the game

 
they played poorly for the Dallas game and two quarters of the recent Tampa game.
Played poorly offensively over those six quarters, that is. The Saints shut out both Dallas and Tampa Bay -- on the road -- in the respective second halves of those games. The Saints have allowed 13 ppg over the last five games, and have held nine opponents this season to 20 or fewer points.

A lot of outside observers still think the Saints are offense first, second and third and bring nothing to the table defensively. The 2017-18 New Orleans Saints have been a very different animal than the no-defense squads from earlier this decade.

 
Played poorly offensively over those six quarters, that is. The Saints shut out both Dallas and Tampa Bay -- on the road -- in the respective second halves of those games. The Saints have allowed 13 ppg over the last five games, and have held nine opponents this season to 20 or fewer points.

A lot of outside observers still think the Saints are offense first, second and third and bring nothing to the table defensively. The 2017-18 New Orleans Saints have been a very different animal than the no-defense squads from earlier this decade.
I'd agree that there is a quality defense being overshadowed on the Saints this year. It's got all-probquality players along the front four most obviously. The Lbs and defensive backfield are solid. They have carried the day more than a few times. 

 

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