Weak RB2 or Strong WR1 (1 Viewer)

[Da Flyin Lion]

Is there anyone out there like me with an early 1st round draft pick? I'm having a hard time deciding what to do in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. By the time my 2nd round pick comes around I'll probably be down to the my 4th or 5th tier of RBs but still have plenty of 2nd Teir WRs available. By the time the 3rd round pick wraps around, my RB selection is only slightly worse, but my WRs selection is down another tier. I'm usually a firm believer in RB, RB, but when is it time to go RB, WR, RB?

It might help looking at RB and WR tiers. Here's how I have them listed:

RB

Alexander, LJ, Tomlinson

Portis, Barber

Edge, Jordan, Cadillac, Jackson, Rudi, Brown

McGahee, Westbrook, Parker, Dom Davis, Droughns, Kevin Jones, Julius Jones

Foster, Chester Taylor, Bell, Lewis, Dillon

Rhodes, Fred Taylor, Martin, Thomas Jones, Ahmann Green

WR

C. Johnson, Smith, TO, Holt, Harrison, Fitzgerald, Moss

Bolden, Chambers, Ward, Jackson, S. Moss,

Driver, Burress, Wayne, ROY, Walker

With a late 2nd round pick (let's say 4, 21, 28)

I'm either looking at something like Portis, Fitzgerald, Jamal Lewis

-or- Portis, Kevin Jones, Ward

Any input on strategy for this area? I'm really thinking RB-WR-RB might be the way to go this year. Especially if you can grab a guy like Lewis or Dillon in the 3rd. They're getting older and banged up but at least they have quality backups you can grab later. VBD helps here but it's really only as good as your projections. And some times a few fantasy point/year isn't enough to worth waiting on your RB2.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I think in PPR, you go with strong WR1 there. Otherwise, probably a weaker RB2 and get your WR1 in the 3rd.

 

[diesel7982]

This year, you go WR1.

Lots of 3rd-4th-5th round RBs.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

RB - WR - RB

IF and only IF the Top 5 WRs are NOT all gone.

Second option would be RB - GATES - WR - RB - RB

That would net you Portis, Gates, Reggie Wayne, T Jones / Dunn or even a Dillon / Maroney combo.

 

[EBF]

I think in PPR, you go with strong WR1 there. Otherwise, probably a weaker RB2 and get your WR1 in the 3rd.

 

[David Yudkin]

RB - WR - RB

IF and only IF the Top 5 WRs are NOT all gone.

Second option would be RB - GATES - WR - RB - RB

That would net you Portis, Gates, Reggie Wayne, T Jones / Dunn or even a Dillon / Maroney combo.

I can't remember if you were the one debating this one with me or not, but with the number of decent TE options seemingly high and the chances of Gates slipping some also pretty good, is taking Gates that early a great move?Don't get me wrong . . . I love Gates and have him in many of my dynasty/keeper league, but is he worth an almost Top 20 pick in a redraft league? I'm thinking that there's an excellent chance that he'd be there in the third on the way back anyway, why jump the shark a round early?

Where this gets complicated is how Gates will perform against SOME of the TE not necessarily the Top 12 (which is where the bar is set for value comparison). If Gates drops to 900/7 for 132 fantasy points (as an example), I think there are several other TE that could get to 100. Is that 32 points really worth a 2nd round pick? He could score double what the #12 TE does, but I am not sure that that makes him extra valuable when there are some other guys that stand to do well.

In a 2 PPR league, there's no doubt he's worth a second rounder, so I guess it depends on the scoring system and starting roster requirements.

 

[SSOG]

RB - WR - RB

IF and only IF the Top 5 WRs are NOT all gone.

Second option would be RB - GATES - WR - RB - RB

That would net you Portis, Gates, Reggie Wayne, T Jones / Dunn or even a Dillon / Maroney combo.

I can't remember if you were the one debating this one with me or not, but with the number of decent TE options seemingly high and the chances of Gates slipping some also pretty good, is taking Gates that early a great move?Don't get me wrong . . . I love Gates and have him in many of my dynasty/keeper league, but is he worth an almost Top 20 pick in a redraft league? I'm thinking that there's an excellent chance that he'd be there in the third on the way back anyway, why jump the shark a round early?

Where this gets complicated is how Gates will perform against SOME of the TE not necessarily the Top 12 (which is where the bar is set for value comparison). If Gates drops to 900/7 for 132 fantasy points (as an example), I think there are several other TE that could get to 100. Is that 32 points really worth a 2nd round pick? He could score double what the #12 TE does, but I am not sure that that makes him extra valuable when there are some other guys that stand to do well.

In a 2 PPR league, there's no doubt he's worth a second rounder, so I guess it depends on the scoring system and starting roster requirements.

I agree with this post, if you're drafting outside the top 3. I am VERY high on Gates, and strongly debated taking him at 2.07... but in the end, that's just too early. At 2.10, 2.11, 2.12, I have no problem with the pick, because the dropoff before your next pick isn't going to be huge, but in the middle of the second, there's just too much loss there.Anyway, in response to the original question... that really depends. If your league-mates go WR happy, then there'll be more value at RB. If your leaguemates go RB happy, there'll be more value at WR. Or you can buck all trends and get Peyton Manning and Antonio Gates to lock up the #1 player at three different positions. The key is to not overthink things in advance, but rather to just let value come to you. Don't target certain players, because then you're more likely to reach for them. Instead, just trust your projections and take the best player left on your board with each selection.

The thing about the BPA strategy is that it can make you very nervous. I just took 4 RBs in the first 5 rounds in one draft, just because each time that RB was clearly the best player left on my board. The thing is, though... after a couple of weeks, if your projections were right (and you should always draft as if your projections will be right), then those players you took who you didn't need will have a lot of trade value, if nothing else. You can frequently trade an RB that you got in the 4th round for a WR that someone else got in the 3rd once the season begins.

 

[red]

This year, you go WR1.

Lots of 3rd-4th-5th round RBs.

i don't have a first rounder this year, so my 1st overall pick (2.06) will most likely be a WR banking on the fact that there should be some servicable RB in the 3rd and 4th rounds. i'd rather get a consistent WR here (hopefully one of the top 5) and then gamble with the FWP, d foster, thomas jones/cedric benson, GB RB, lendal white types...my league is TD heavy so that plays into this decision as well...

 

[Byron_nyc]

"I'm usually a firm believer in RB, RB, but when is it time to go RB, WR, RB?"

this year.

 

[SSOG]

"I'm usually a firm believer in RB, RB, but when is it time to go RB, WR, RB?"

this year.

Also note that, the closer you are to the turn, the less of a difference there is going to be between going RB/RB/WR and going RB/WR/RB (until, at pick 2.12/3.01, there's no longer any difference at all).

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

RB - WR - RB

IF and only IF the Top 5 WRs are NOT all gone.

Second option would be RB - GATES - WR - RB - RB

That would net you Portis, Gates, Reggie Wayne, T Jones / Dunn or even a Dillon / Maroney combo.

I can't remember if you were the one debating this one with me or not, but with the number of decent TE options seemingly high and the chances of Gates slipping some also pretty good, is taking Gates that early a great move?Don't get me wrong . . . I love Gates and have him in many of my dynasty/keeper league, but is he worth an almost Top 20 pick in a redraft league? I'm thinking that there's an excellent chance that he'd be there in the third on the way back anyway, why jump the shark a round early?

Where this gets complicated is how Gates will perform against SOME of the TE not necessarily the Top 12 (which is where the bar is set for value comparison). If Gates drops to 900/7 for 132 fantasy points (as an example), I think there are several other TE that could get to 100. Is that 32 points really worth a 2nd round pick? He could score double what the #12 TE does, but I am not sure that that makes him extra valuable when there are some other guys that stand to do well.

In a 2 PPR league, there's no doubt he's worth a second rounder, so I guess it depends on the scoring system and starting roster requirements.

Agreed it all depends on TE scoring / requirements, but Gates seems head and shoulders above the next level of TEs.What I'm saying here is that only 5 WRs warrant a 2nd rounder here. Gates arguably does, and COULD be gone by his 3rd pick.

So - take Gates and the dropoff from 2.09 to 3.04 is minimal at WR. Driver, Wayne, RMoss / SMoss, Ward - not a big difference.

 

[Da Flyin Lion]

If Gates performs like he did last year then those taking him in the 2nd/3rd will get what they paid for. But he will have a new QB last and the secret is out. I think teams will be really focused on him, especially since he will be Rivers safety valve. I drafted Gonzalez in the 3rd round last year thinking I got a sure thing. He was BPA according to my projections but that didn't turn out good at all.

When taking a TE that early, the best situation is you get what you pay for. Will it be possible for Gates to exceed your expectations if you take him that early. I'd rather look for a sleeper TE late or try and get a guy like Crumpler in the 6th.

 

[-OZ-]

This year, you go WR1.

Lots of 3rd-4th-5th round RBs.

i don't have a first rounder this year, so my 1st overall pick (2.06) will most likely be a WR banking on the fact that there should be some servicable RB in the 3rd and 4th rounds. i'd rather get a consistent WR here (hopefully one of the top 5) and then gamble with the FWP, d foster, thomas jones/cedric benson, GB RB, lendal white types...my league is TD heavy so that plays into this decision as well...

I'll probably go RB/WR/TE/RB, I don't mind waiting on RBs in most leagues. I hate to ask, but why don't you have a 1st?

 

[rascal]

If you draft in the top three, your league is not larger then 12 teams, and the top six WR's (Johnson, Smith, Fitz, Holt, Owens, Moss) are NOT gone then I'd say it's probably a good idea to take a WR.

***If you are required or have the option to start 3 RB's then you absolutely take a RB IMO.

 

[Game Time]

I got Alexander at 1.3, took Steve Smith at 2.10 and grabbed FWP at 3.3 I am pretty happy with this!

 

[diesel7982]

I got Alexander at 1.3, took Steve Smith at 2.3 and grabbed FWP at 3.3 I am pretty happy with this!

Why do you have the 3rd pick in every round?

 

[EBF]

One of my new drafting philosophies is "format is everything". Know your scoring format. In leagues that award points for receptions, top wide receivers are often more valuable than all but the best RBs. Also, RBs like Brian Westbrook, Tiki Barber, and Reggie Bush increase in value, whereas guys like Rudi Johnson and Jamal Lewis decrease in value.

 

[SSOG]

If Gates performs like he did last year then those taking him in the 2nd/3rd will get what they paid for. But he will have a new QB last and the secret is out. I think teams will be really focused on him, especially since he will be Rivers safety valve. I drafted Gonzalez in the 3rd round last year thinking I got a sure thing. He was BPA according to my projections but that didn't turn out good at all.

When taking a TE that early, the best situation is you get what you pay for. Will it be possible for Gates to exceed your expectations if you take him that early. I'd rather look for a sleeper TE late or try and get a guy like Crumpler in the 6th.

That's true about any position at all, not just TE. I challenge you to find a player who has finished in the top 10 in VBD for two straight seasons who will still be around past 1.06, though.

 

[Game Time]

I got Alexander at 1.3, took Steve Smith at 2.3 and grabbed FWP at 3.3 I am pretty happy with this!

Why do you have the 3rd pick in every round?

Sorry typo... Steve Smith was at 2.10

 

[David Yudkin]

RB - WR - RB

IF and only IF the Top 5 WRs are NOT all gone.

Second option would be RB - GATES - WR - RB - RB

That would net you Portis, Gates, Reggie Wayne, T Jones / Dunn or even a Dillon / Maroney combo.

I can't remember if you were the one debating this one with me or not, but with the number of decent TE options seemingly high and the chances of Gates slipping some also pretty good, is taking Gates that early a great move?Don't get me wrong . . . I love Gates and have him in many of my dynasty/keeper league, but is he worth an almost Top 20 pick in a redraft league? I'm thinking that there's an excellent chance that he'd be there in the third on the way back anyway, why jump the shark a round early?

Where this gets complicated is how Gates will perform against SOME of the TE not necessarily the Top 12 (which is where the bar is set for value comparison). If Gates drops to 900/7 for 132 fantasy points (as an example), I think there are several other TE that could get to 100. Is that 32 points really worth a 2nd round pick? He could score double what the #12 TE does, but I am not sure that that makes him extra valuable when there are some other guys that stand to do well.

In a 2 PPR league, there's no doubt he's worth a second rounder, so I guess it depends on the scoring system and starting roster requirements.

Agreed it all depends on TE scoring / requirements, but Gates seems head and shoulders above the next level of TEs.What I'm saying here is that only 5 WRs warrant a 2nd rounder here. Gates arguably does, and COULD be gone by his 3rd pick.

So - take Gates and the dropoff from 2.09 to 3.04 is minimal at WR. Driver, Wayne, RMoss / SMoss, Ward - not a big difference.

Which 5 WR warrant a 2nd ropund pick? THere are 8 WR currently going as 2nd rounders based on the ADP info on the main page:13 WR1 Steve Smith Car/9

17 WR2 Chad Johnson Cin/5

18 WR3 Terrell Owens Dal/3

19 WR4 Larry Fitzgerald Ari/9

20 WR5 Torry Holt StL/7

22 WR6 Randy Moss Oak/3

23 WR7 Marvin Harrison Ind/6

24 WR8 Anquan Boldin Ari/9

Using staff ranking instead . . .

13 WR Steve Smith, CAR

14 WR Chad Johnson, CIN

15 WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI

19 WR Torry Holt, STL

20 WR Randy Moss, OAK

21 WR Terrell Owens, DAL

23 WR Marvin Harrison, IND

24 WR Anquan Boldin, ARI

Gates is being drafted at 26 overall while the staff ranks him at 22 overall.

IMO, where you project any of these guys will dictate which guy you want to invest a pick in.

I happen to think they all have some issues:

Steve Smith - Keyshawn will get his share and the team will run more if able (based on health of RB and strength of defense)

Chad Johnson - Will Palmer miss time and how productive will he be if still banged up

Larry Fitzgerald - Fitz + Boldin + Edge all on the same team will not produce the same numbers as those 3 did combined in 2005

Torry Holt - The team is destined to run more and pass less, what that does to Holt is the question

Randy Moss - Still one of the most talented WR in the game when healthy, but he hasn't been healthy in a while

Terrell Owens - Parcells T.O. will not get the ball as much as he's used to

Marvin Harrison - Not getting any younger and Wayne may surpass him production wise this year

Anquan Boldin - See above

While I don't see any of these guys as terrible options, I also don't think any of them are fantastis options either.

 

[David Yudkin]

If you draft in the top three, your league is not larger then 12 teams, and the top six WR's (Johnson, Smith, Fitz, Holt, Owens, Moss) are NOT gone then I'd say it's probably a good idea to take a WR.

***If you are required or have the option to start 3 RB's then you absolutely take a RB IMO.

I still say it depends. Many leagues have a flex spot, and IMO people are lulled to sleep thinking that they have to start a RB when many times a WR or TE could be a better option.I am in a league that has 2 flex spots, and with 2 PPR for TE I actually fill both flex spots with TE and start 3 TE (Gonzalez, Heap, and Witten).

 

[Jack Ham & Eggs]

If Gates performs like he did last year then those taking him in the 2nd/3rd will get what they paid for. But he will have a new QB last and the secret is out. I think teams will be really focused on him, especially since he will be Rivers safety valve.

I think the secret's been out for quite a while now. Gates is just that good. I like Drew Brees a lot, but Gates was more instrumental to Brees' success than vice versa. You don't stop Gates, you hope to contain him. I don't have any input on where someone should take him, but I fully expect him to put up stats at the same level as 04-05.

 

[Hear-the-Footsteps]

I think the best way to look at this - ie, very late 2nd round pick with a very early 3rd round pick - is to see how it plays out beyond those rounds.

For instance, I see it as 3 main choices (obviously there are others - like Gates or some QB). But for me, for the most part I see it as:

A)

2nd: RB

3rd: RB

4th: WR

5th: WR

-or-

B)

2nd: WR

3rd: WR

4th: RB

5th: RB

-or-

C)

2nd: RB/WR

3rd: the opposite of 2nd

4th: RB/WR

5th: the opposite of 4th

So let's see how it plays out - meaning based on what you take in the 2nd and 3rd, what you get with very late 4th and very early 5th.

Let's use the the #1 spot - since that is the absolute latest pick in the even rounds and the absolute earliest pick in the odd rounds. (Assuming 12 person league.)

2nd = 24th pick

3rd = 25th pick

4th = 48th pick

5th = 49th pick

Scenario A would yield something like: Kevin Jones, Willie Parker, Andre Johnson, Javon Walker.

Scenario B would yield something like: Anquan Boldin, Marvin Harrison, Thomas Jones, DeShaun Foster

Scenario C would yield something like: Kevin Jones, Anquan Boldin, Andre Johnson, Thomas Jones

So what are your thoughts on that? This is a more concrete way of looking at how things would play out with actual players - and beyond just rounds 2 and 3.

Thoughts?!

 

[rascal]

If you draft in the top three, your league is not larger then 12 teams, and the top six WR's (Johnson, Smith, Fitz, Holt, Owens, Moss) are NOT gone then I'd say it's probably a good idea to take a WR.

***If you are required or have the option to start 3 RB's then you absolutely take a RB IMO.

I still say it depends. Many leagues have a flex spot, and IMO people are lulled to sleep thinking that they have to start a RB when many times a WR or TE could be a better option.I am in a league that has 2 flex spots, and with 2 PPR for TE I actually fill both flex spots with TE and start 3 TE (Gonzalez, Heap, and Witten).

If it's a PPR league then that throws everything off. I should have added that as a disclaimer.IMO even if the flex spot can be a WR/RB the best option is a RB. RB's in my experience give more consistent production then WR's. When I've had three top RB's compared to three top WR's I've done better.

Granted I haven't done any in depth analysis and it's only my own personal experience.

 

[red]

This year, you go WR1.

Lots of 3rd-4th-5th round RBs.

i don't have a first rounder this year, so my 1st overall pick (2.06) will most likely be a WR banking on the fact that there should be some servicable RB in the 3rd and 4th rounds. i'd rather get a consistent WR here (hopefully one of the top 5) and then gamble with the FWP, d foster, thomas jones/cedric benson, GB RB, lendal white types...my league is TD heavy so that plays into this decision as well...

I'll probably go RB/WR/TE/RB, I don't mind waiting on RBs in most leagues. I hate to ask, but why don't you have a 1st?

traded it away last year to acquire torry holt for a play off push...

 

[BlueDredSo]

Scenario A would yield something like: Kevin Jones, Willie Parker, Andre Johnson, Javon Walker.

Scenario B would yield something like: Anquan Boldin, Marvin Harrison, Thomas Jones, DeShaun Foster

Scenario C would yield something like: Kevin Jones, Anquan Boldin, Andre Johnson, Thomas Jones

So what are your thoughts on that? This is a more concrete way of looking at how things would play out with actual players - and beyond just rounds 2 and 3.

Thoughts?!

I'm really liking scenario A. That's just because I think K. Jones, A. Johnson, and J. Walker will exceed expectations this year (at least most's expectations).Scenario B is :( as the Cards' WRs' stats are likely to drop with Edge and a defense that's getting better and better. Harrison isn't getting any younger. The combo of T. Jones and Foster is kinda scary too (in a bad way).

Scenario C is decent. I'd much rather have A though.

 

[isiahcleaves]

I don't think a set rule applies to this. You just have to go with whatever the best value is remaining according to your draft board and for the type of draft you're in.

I completed my first real 12 round draft a few weeks ago. The guys in the league are mostly sharks, so it's not like I was drafting with a bunch of dummies. Fairly standard scoring system... start 1 QB, 2 RB's, 3 WR's, 1 TE

I had the 4th pick.

at 1.4 - Portis

at 2.9 - C. Johnson (5th WR taken)

at 3.4 - Gates

at 4.9 - T. Jones (most solid 2nd tier RB's were long gone.... 25th RB taken)

at 5.4 - A. Johnson (19th WR taken... 28 RB's were gone by now)

at 6.8 - McNabb (9th QB taken!... traded up to get him)

at 6.9 - D. McCalister

Synopsis:

I left myself thin at RB (drafted Maroney and C. Houston late), but I ended up getting a consensus top 3 WR and the top TE in fantasy football while fielding a fairly decent squad in return despite the lack of a strong RB2. Not being flexible with strategy can cause you to draft an inferior team.

 

[the spanker]

I don't think a set rule applies to this. You just have to go with whatever the best value is remaining according to your draft board and for the type of draft you're in.

I completed my first real 12 round draft a few weeks ago. The guys in the league are mostly sharks, so it's not like I was drafting with a bunch of dummies. Fairly standard scoring system... start 1 QB, 2 RB's, 3 WR's, 1 TE

I had the 4th pick.

at 1.4 - Portis

at 2.9 - C. Johnson (5th WR taken)

at 3.4 - Gates

at 4.9 - T. Jones (most solid 2nd tier RB's were long gone.... 25th RB taken)

at 5.4 - A. Johnson (19th WR taken... 28 RB's were gone by now)

at 6.8 - McNabb (9th QB taken!... traded up to get him)

at 6.9 - D. McCalister

Synopsis:

I left myself thin at RB (drafted Maroney and C. Houston late), but I ended up getting a consensus top 3 WR and the top TE in fantasy football while fielding a fairly decent squad in return despite the lack of a strong RB2. Not being flexible with strategy can cause you to draft an inferior team.

My question is what RBs were available when you selected Johnson in the 2nd and Gates in the third?

 

[isiahcleaves]

When I drafted Chad Johnson, there were 13 RB's already taken. The 3 available that were worthy of consideration (imo) were McGahee, Westbrook, and Kevin Jones. The only one I seriously considered was McGahee.

When I drafted Gates, Kevin Jones was still available and the only other guy I considered (17 RB's were gone by this point)

This may sound pretty stupid, but McGahee and Kevin Jones both have the same bye week as Portis. That probably shouldn't be that big of a consideration, but it did factor into my decision making process.