Weather for week 16 (1 Viewer)

[Rovers]

The weather looks like it could have a very large impact in quite a few venues this week. Seattle is one in particular:

Sunday: Snow, mainly after 10am. High near 33. Windy, with a southeast wind around 37 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Does this mean marginal players like Barton and the Jets safeties get considerably upgraded? Will Seattle even attempt to pass in this mess? More tackle opportunities? Are all the CB's in this game now benchable?

I know this is the IDP forum, but do the TE's get many more targets when these teams do try to throw the ball? What does that mean for the LB's on both squads?

Seattle isn't the only place where weather could dictate FF succes this week either, but it sounds like the worst of the lot weather wise. As best I can recall, Chicago could be a mess, and the entire northeast has terrible weather too. I believe KC has a horrible forecast on tap as well.

How is everyone going to use/react to this, the Super Bowl week for most FF leagues?

Not a WDIS, but an example: AZ rushes the ball less than any team in the NFL. So, never bench your studs like Mayo anyway? Or, given the weather, does a Barton become a better bet over a stud like Mayo? How much weight will you be putting on the weather when you make your final line up changes?

I really am not sure for myself. Looking for other opinions here. On the offensive side, are all of the WR's in the Jets/Hawks game now unstartable? The QB's? The TE's? The CB's?

I am tempted in my particular situation to bench Mayo and start Barton. Bench Carlson and start Boss. Am I in panic mode, or is everyone else worried too?

 

[KellysHeroes]

I just may have to bench wilson this weekend

 

[Rovers]

I am surprised this thread has gotten so little attention.

I'm in near panic mode. This is going to be the worst weather weekend as far as the NFL goes in my FF memory. Am I putting too much stock in this? I don't think so. If teams can't pass in the winds, I can see some very average IDP's racking up unusually big numbers with increased tackle opportunities. What I can't figure, is which ones will stand to benefit.

I sure would like to see FBG pay more attention to this issue, both with IDP's and the offensive players. This is championship week, and I have a hunch that the weather will have a major impact on who wins and who loses their super bowl this weekend.

Rankings and cheat sheets are great, but a report on this weather for the affected games and players would be golden... and on the flip side, a real mistake if it gets ignored.

 

[Rozelle]

This is a great thread Rovers. <_< Hopefully the locals will chime in with updates. I have to step out for awhile, be back later.

 

[HoTnickZ]

Appreciate the thread. Just saw it or else I would have responded sooner.

Personally, I'm wondering if someone like Harris might go from a so so start to a solid start.

 

[Jene Bramel]

I don't know that there's an easy answer to this one. I've seen it go both ways.

In the past, before field turf and improvements in heating the field and drainage, footing was an issue. The defaults were dive runs and passing routes with as little cutting as possible. It depended on the strength of the lines to some extent (some DL had great days, some didn't), but I remember some big days from linebackers in these situations. My guess would be that the same would happen now, though I think the improved fields will allow the footing to be decent enough that the offensive players get the upper hand -- they know where they're going, the defense has to react.

The wind will be a different issue, though. The games where the wind is up with the weather will force more runs and more incompletions. In games where there's a big difference in talent and an exploitable matchup, you might see a blowout. Those without a big difference are probably going to be low scoring.

On offense, I'd be looking at guys who are powerful and can run through tackles by defenders who can't hold the point of attack. I'd be looking at underneath and possession receivers in games with wind. For the most part, though, unless you're a Chad Johnson (deep and timing routes only) or a Reggie Bush type player (cutback and make 'em miss), I'd be sticking with the usual lineup (assuming the weather isn't absolutely horrid or I didn't have another very good option).

On defense, I don't know if it changes much honestly. The better backers and linemen are going to make tackles. A strong safety who usually plays in the box should be safe. Maybe we'll see a couple of extra defensive tackles have great days and some cover corners poorer ones. But I think the tackles still go the players who'd normally make them.

Interested in other opinions...

If y'all want to break down the worst matchups, I'd be up for it.

 

[Rovers]

Let's take a look at Seattle.

The last NWS forecast:

Sunday: Snow before 10am, then rain, freezing rain, and sleet likely. High near 35. South southeast wind 18 to 21 mph decreasing to between 8 and 11 mph. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

The Weather channel forecast calls for less wind. The game at Giants stadium could actually be worse than Seattle. For NJ: (8pm EST game)

Sunday: Snow before 10am, then rain between 10am and 4pm, then a chance of rain, snow, and freezing rain after 4pm. High near 39. Breezy, with a north wind between 13 and 22 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Sunday Night: A slight chance of snow and freezing rain before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Breezy, with a west wind between 20 and 23 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

I guess my first question is how much will this affect each offenses' game plan? Other than staright go routes, I can't see too many deep balls being thrown, but perhaps more reliance on the short passing game and running the ball? Does this sort of weather make a TE more likely to have a bigger role?

Will Diggs be covering Boss? Could that increase Beason's tackle opportunities? And reduce Diggs tackle opportunities? Or will Beason be covering Boss? How would an increase in the short passing game and number of rushing attempts affect a player like Peppers?

In Seattle, will the Hawks attempt to run more often? Does that possiblilty bump Barton and Harris? And who might be covering Carlson, and how might that affect the numbers?

Here is the Boston forecast: (1pm EST game)

Sunday: Snow, mainly after 8am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 36. Breezy, with a east wind between 11 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

AZ has a league low number of rushing attempts of 13. something per game. Will they alter their usual pass crazy attack? Boldin looks like he won't play, but AZ doesn't rush much because they just aren't very good at it. That would already limit Mayo's tackle opportunities, but does this weather forecast change that? Will NE play more ball control, bumping D Ryans' numbers?

Will the safeties on the defenses move up and cover the short routes while leaving the CB's alone to cover whatever deep stuff may be thrown?

Maybe I am over thinking here, but the stakes are high this week. Championships are on the line.

Oh, and yes, should I bench Mayo for Barton?

 

[J Giles Band]

I'm with you Rovers. I often use poor weather conditions as the tiebreaker in close starting lineup decisions. About the time November rolls around I start doing a weather search on game days to supplement the information I'm getting on fantasy sites because they usually don't pay enough attention to it.

I find weather conditions are often not given enough consideration by fantasy sites if not entirely glossed over. Especially on the offensive side of the ball. I'm not astute enough to predict the affect on defensive players though Jene's and others thoughts are always a great read.

And let's face it, the most damaging weather effects usually occur in December (during the fantasy playoffs - when it REALLY matters).

Last season alone the two best teams in our league were unceremoniously ousted from our playoffs due to the weather in New England (killing Brady, Moss & Welker) and the weather in Cleveland (killing Anderson, Edwards and Winslow). A not so unique tale I'm sure.

Best of luck to all.

 

[treat88]

It's my first year playing IDP.

Is it fair to say that windy conditions decrease expected CB numbers?

Do we bench Josh Wilson in return yardage leagues?

 

[Jene Bramel]

Let's take a look at Seattle.

The last NWS forecast:

Sunday: Snow before 10am, then rain, freezing rain, and sleet likely. High near 35. South southeast wind 18 to 21 mph decreasing to between 8 and 11 mph. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

The Weather channel forecast calls for less wind. The game at Giants stadium could actually be worse than Seattle. For NJ: (8pm EST game)

Sunday: Snow before 10am, then rain between 10am and 4pm, then a chance of rain, snow, and freezing rain after 4pm. High near 39. Breezy, with a north wind between 13 and 22 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Sunday Night: A slight chance of snow and freezing rain before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Breezy, with a west wind between 20 and 23 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

I guess my first question is how much will this affect each offenses' game plan? Other than staright go routes, I can't see too many deep balls being thrown, but perhaps more reliance on the short passing game and running the ball? Does this sort of weather make a TE more likely to have a bigger role?

Will Diggs be covering Boss? Could that increase Beason's tackle opportunities? And reduce Diggs tackle opportunities? Or will Beason be covering Boss? How would an increase in the short passing game and number of rushing attempts affect a player like Peppers?

In Seattle, will the Hawks attempt to run more often? Does that possiblilty bump Barton and Harris? And who might be covering Carlson, and how might that affect the numbers?

I don't think this kind of weather necessarily gives a TE a larger role in the offense. I do think that offenses are less likely to run timing routes and patterns that leave the ball in the air for a longer period of time as noted above. I don't think it definitely follows that the TE gets more looks. It depends on the TE and his surrounding cast. Carlson is already getting plenty of looks, he'll likely continue to be a focal point of the offense. The Giants on the other hand are successful enough running the ball, that I think the most likely result would be an increased reliance on the ground game. I suppose the Seahawks may run more, but I doubt they'll be very effective given my feeling that the Jet front seven is better than the Seattle OL, which won't mean much for the tackle opportunities anyway.

Horrible weather would favor Beason and Davis as the better athletes, and I think you're much more likely to see zone coverages in poor weather than man. The same would go for Harris and Barton.

Here is the Boston forecast: (1pm EST game)

Sunday: Snow, mainly after 8am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 36. Breezy, with a east wind between 11 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

AZ has a league low number of rushing attempts of 13. something per game. Will they alter their usual pass crazy attack? Boldin looks like he won't play, but AZ doesn't rush much because they just aren't very good at it. That would already limit Mayo's tackle opportunities, but does this weather forecast change that? Will NE play more ball control, bumping D Ryans' numbers?

Will the safeties on the defenses move up and cover the short routes while leaving the CB's alone to cover whatever deep stuff may be thrown?

The Cardinals don't run the ball because they aren't effective doing so. I don't think the weather helps in that regard in this matchup. No reason you can't run a spread offense in bad weather and the Cardinals don't throw downfield too much anyway. I think the combination of weather and no Boldin hurts, but Fitz and Breaston are solid players. Maybe downgrade the matchup some, but I'd think Mayo and Hayes/Dansby are still reasonable plays. Again, I don't think you see much man coverage if the weather is a concern, especially against any receiver that can run a straight line fast enough to get far enough behind a corner so that a wind-affected throw won't matter much.

Maybe I am over thinking here, but the stakes are high this week. Championships are on the line.

Oh, and yes, should I bench Mayo for Barton?

I can't see benching a player facing a poor matchup (potentially off the field in some nickel snaps against a team that can't run and has a suspect QB) for a better player facing a better matchup. Strange things happen in one week matchups -- maybe Seneca Wallace runs the ball six times and TJ Duckett runs between the tackles a bunch of times in a close game and the Seahawks put Carlson to Barton's side of the field in top and bottom zone coverage and Barton gets nine solos while New England completely destroys the Cardinals and allows only 30 tackle opportunities and Mayo finishes with two solos. If you've got a gut feeling that Barton is the man this week, roll with it. I think we're trying to project gameplans for questionable offenses with yet another very confounding variable in the mix. I may well be dismissing what will have been something easy to see in hindsight, but I'm going with the better player in Mayo here.

 

[Jene Bramel]

It's my first year playing IDP.Is it fair to say that windy conditions decrease expected CB numbers?Do we bench Josh Wilson in return yardage leagues?

Some corners will see their numbers drop. Those that play in zone coverage or are good in run support or face a possession receiver with a high reception to target percentage should remain a reasonably solid play in the wind.Wilson's return value is key. If you think the weather will depress scoring to the point that there'll be only one or two extra kickoffs that may or may not be returnable or if your system doesn't really give a lot of points to a returner (say 1pt/40yd or worse or 1/25 with 2/solo system) and you've got other options, I'd consider them. If you're getting 1/10 or 1/20 yards and 1/solo tackle, it's hard to bench any regular returner who sees big defensive snaps.

 

[Regnad Kcin]

I also check the weather if it seems that it will be a contributing factor or a tie breaker. In fact, I think that the bizarre weather all across the country has added a lot of fun to this week's games that otherwise would not have been there. Obviously, it has impact on both sides of the ball. Relative to IDP's, I have "broken a tie" and penciled in Mayo and benched Weddle. Arizona IS a throwing team but if they aren't running abit more in the Foxboro snow, the passes will be shorter, providing more "over the middle" opportunities for Mayo and guys like him around the league. However, most of my changes have occurred on the offensive side of the ball. While I continue to start Welker in one league, I have benched deep threat Randy Moss for Vincent Jackson in sunny Tampa Bay. In another league, I again benched Moss for Bernard Berrian Playing in the Minn dome. I also benched Neil Rackers and picked up Garret Hartley kicking in a dome for New Orleans. Lots of fun with lots on the line during FF Super Bowl week.

Most of all, the leveling of the talent that goes along with bad weather might work out well for my team, the Patriots, While they pretty much have to win this week and next to push their way into the playoffs, they also need both the Jets and Dolphins to lose at least one game each. It will be a mess in Seattle today for the Jets and it will be -20 wind chill in KC for the 'Phins. This is going to be the most exciting week of football this year. Enjoy everybody!!