Week 04 2023 who should I start thread **OFFICIALLY UNOFFICIAL** (1 Viewer)

[Proteus]

Pick 2 .5 ppr
Swift v Wash
Achane @ Buf
J Cook v Mia

Pick 1 1ppr
Garret Wilson v KC
Higgins @ Ten

Pick 1 .5 ppr
Puka @ Ind
Dell v Pit

Swift and Cook. I get it with Achane but let's see what happens when the horse kicks back.

You can't trust Zach Wilson to sustain Garret Wilson. You just can't. Especially in PPR format. Higgins had a down game last week but he still had 8 targets.
Higgins>Wilson

Much as I want to say Dell, I think you have to keep riding Puka until the wheels fall off.
Puka>Dell

Thanks! You’ve confirmed exactly the way I was leaning in all cases. Will circle back and help others tomorrow. When I’m not quite so drunk.

 

[Goooals]

Standard scoring non-ppr league. Need 1 for a flex:

Ford vs BAL
D. Smith vs WAS
Lockett vs NYG

 

[PM17]

Flowers has been getting starter snap shares and #1 WR targets all year. However, while he gets open easily the big plays have been sparse as his 9.0 Y/R suggests (and that number includes a 52 yard reception). But I do believe he will have a coming out party game at some point, I am just not sure Cleveland is the place for that to happen. They are the #1 defense in points & pass yards & #3 in pass attempts. It's tough to predict how these AFC North games will play out but this one gives me pause.

Mattison>Flowers

@PM17 I just saw that both OBJ & Bateman will not play this week at Cleveland. That definitely means Flowers should be in for a big target day but I think I still stick with Mattison because being the #1 WR means he will see primary coverage as well.

But it does make it a closer decision.

It does - and with my Rb crappy matchups I'm thinking starting Kamara over Mixon or Stephenson... may make sense, and Devin White might be out for TB

 

[Chaka]

Puka vs Ind
Pickens vs Hou
Dell vs Pitt
Aiyuk vs Ariz

ppr, pick 2

I mean, it's gotta be Aiyuk & Puka, right?

I could make an argument for Dell in a PPR but isn't Puka already what we want Dell to be?

 

[Chaka]

Flowers has been getting starter snap shares and #1 WR targets all year. However, while he gets open easily the big plays have been sparse as his 9.0 Y/R suggests (and that number includes a 52 yard reception). But I do believe he will have a coming out party game at some point, I am just not sure Cleveland is the place for that to happen. They are the #1 defense in points & pass yards & #3 in pass attempts. It's tough to predict how these AFC North games will play out but this one gives me pause.

Mattison>Flowers

@PM17 I just saw that both OBJ & Bateman will not play this week at Cleveland. That definitely means Flowers should be in for a big target day but I think I still stick with Mattison because being the #1 WR means he will see primary coverage as well.

But it does make it a closer decision.

It does - and with my Rb crappy matchups I'm thinking starting Kamara over Mixon or Stephenson... may make sense, and Devin White might be out for TB

I very much wanted to put Kamara at the top of the list but with the understanding that choosing him is all about you philosophy towards risk aversion. If you're okay with assuming the risk then Kamara & Mattison are the guys I would roll with and may even consider Flowers as the flex.

So difficult to bench 20 touch guys like Mixon & Rhamondre though.

 

[Chaka]

Standard scoring non-ppr league. Need 1 for a flex:

Ford vs BAL
D. Smith vs WAS
Lockett vs NYG

Much as I am optimistic about Ford he isn't an option when you have guys like Devonta & Lockett.

Between the two I can see concern that Phili runs the Commanders out of the building. And I think that's probably the deciding factor here. More than most DeVonta can fix a bad game in one play, but so can Lockett and the Giants represent a somewhat better matchup.

This is super close between the two but I lean

Lockett>DeVonta

 

[icehouse]

In half PPR I need to choose between Dell, Jeudy, Roschon Johnson and possibly Hubbard (if Sanders is out). In another half PPR league I need two RB's out of JaVonte, Ford, Warren and possibly Hubbard (if Sanders is out). Thanks!

 

[markrc99]

More of a who should I stash. 0.5 PPR can only hold one. Mims or Johnston

Have both players but in separate keeper leagues, 0.5ppr, production from the return game is scored. While my setting favors Mims jr. I think I'd still lean toward him. Neither player has had much run but Mims has really produced despite the limited opportunities. Johnston now steps into a featured role, but what is his role? Is his depth of target going to be varied or is he primarily the deep threat? There was a report yesterday suggesting that Mims is going to be more involved.

For fellow owners, the problem I have is this: if Miles Sanders is sidelined, is the better replacement Rachaad White (@NO), Khalil Herbert (DEN) or Dameon Pierce (@PIT)?

 

[Ardbeg4ever]

HPPR, can only start one of KyWilliams, Moss (vs each other) or Mostert vs Buff. Looking for highest floor as I'm heavily favored.

 

[Chaka]

In half PPR I need to choose between Dell, Jeudy, Roschon Johnson and possibly Hubbard (if Sanders is out). In another half PPR league I need two RB's out of JaVonte, Ford, Warren and possibly Hubbard (if Sanders is out). Thanks!

How about including some matchups, brother?

 

[Chaka]

More of a who should I stash. 0.5 PPR can only hold one. Mims or Johnston

No strong opinions either way but probably Johnston. Better offense to bet on IMO.

 

[Chaka]

HPPR, can only start one of KyWilliams, Moss (vs each other) or Mostert vs Buff. Looking for highest floor as I'm heavily favored.

They all have reasonable floors IMO as they all see good to great volume.

I think Moss has the best combination of usage, production and matchup. They seem committed to using him a lot (27x/game!) and he's been responding.

Mostert has also been solid AF and is on the best offense. There is some concerns about the matchup and whether or not Achane will really eat into his opportunities.

Kyren is a high volume low efficiency guy. Personally I think the Rams may have peaked already. He should also present a reasonably safe floor option, but I am not a big fan of the player or the team ATM.

Moss>Mostert>Kyren

 

[Houston turmOiler]

Have to pick 3 of these 4. We also get points for returns. I've been starting Brian Robinson but don't really like the matchup, and I kind of want to get Mims on the field. Feels like I should also get Achane in there after last week and go for a team with massive upside. Whatchya think?

Brian Robinson vs PHI
Devon Achane vs BUF
Christian Kirk vs ATL
Marvin Mims vs CHI

 

[Chaka]

Have to pick 3 of these 4. We also get points for returns. I've been starting Brian Robinson but don't really like the matchup, and I kind of want to get Mims on the field. Feels like I should also get Achane in there after last week and go for a team with massive upside. Whatchya think?

Brian Robinson vs PHI
Devon Achane vs BUF
Christian Kirk vs ATL
Marvin Mims vs CHI

Yes, if you want big upside bench Robinson.

It could be a long day in Philly. But he is the lead back in Washington, gets 17 opps/game and has been very efficient.

However Achane has a tough matchup and I don't anticipate another 70 point outburst.

Also Mims usage is incredibly low, only a 25% snap share, with 9 targets, 3 rush & 5 total returns. I also think Denver is going to have a "get right" game tomorrow and grind the Bears. But that's pure speculation.

For my money I'm benching either Achane or Mims.

Probably Mims.

Achane>Mims

 

[Chaka]

Full PPR

Zay Flowers @ Cleveland (OBJ & Bateman out)
Jerome Ford v Baltimore

I have Ford in ATM

 

[Proteus]

Full PPR

Zay Flowers @ Cleveland (OBJ & Bateman out)
Jerome Ford v Baltimore

I have Ford in ATM

I’m going Ford here. There is nothing about the Baltimore passing game that makes me trust any of it. I’m even regretting drafting Andrews.

 

[Willie Neslon]

Start 2 standard: Ford, Mattison, Kyren

 

[Chaka]

Start 2 standard: Ford, Mattison, Kyren

Kyren is probably most locked into his opportunities.

Mattison has the best matchup and I think, even if Akers plays, he will get every opportunity to remain the #1 RB in Minnesota.

I do think Ford is the #1 guy in Cleveland but how many opportunities that translates to is still up for debate.

Mattison>Kyren>Ford

 

[themeistersinger]

Flex - Full PPR

RB Dameon Pierce - Avg 9.0 PPG, home vs Steelers (29th versus RB)
RB Jerome Ford - Avg 15.6 PPG, home vs Ravens (17th vs RB) (Deshaun Watson Q with Shoulder, LP all week)
RB Jaylen Warren - Avg 9.2 PPG, at Texans (26th vs RB)
WR Jahan Dotson - Avg 6.1 PPG, at Eagles (23rd vs WR)
WR Marvin Mims - Avg 14.9 PPG, at Bears (17th vs WR) (Cecil Lammey hinted he should get more utilization this week)

 

[Chaka]

Flex - Full PPR

RB Dameon Pierce - Avg 9.0 PPG, home vs Steelers (29th versus RB)
RB Jerome Ford - Avg 15.6 PPG, home vs Ravens (17th vs RB) (Deshaun Watson Q with Shoulder, LP all week)
RB Jaylen Warren - Avg 9.2 PPG, at Texans (26th vs RB)
WR Jahan Dotson - Avg 6.1 PPG, at Eagles (23rd vs WR)
WR Marvin Mims - Avg 14.9 PPG, at Bears (17th vs WR) (Cecil Lammey hinted he should get more utilization this week)

IMO this is only a question between Pierce and Ford. One of those other guys may outperform them but it doesn't make it the right choice to bench a 15-20 opportunity RB.

The big problem with Pierce is the Texans are really hurting on the o-line. They were already down both starting tackles and now the backup LT (Josh something is out). They're starting George Fant, who is serviceable, and a PS guy.

The Cleveland RBs may actually be leaned on a little more if Watson is less than 100%. Obviously the defense knows that but with Cooper, Njoku & Moore (and DPP) they probably can't stack the box too much. Plus there is nothing wrong with Watson's legs.

Ford>Pierce

From the others I know Mims is trending ATM but if I'm going that direction I still start Dotson who is on the field 80% of the time against an opponent that is vulnerable to the pass.

Mims is only a consideration if you get return yards & TDS IMO.

Not starting Warren over those other backs but may over Mims & Dotson. That's really all about your risk tolerances. If you're shooting for the moon.

 

[Loipz]

Hey Chaka

0.5 ppr
Looking between

Garrett Wilson vs KC
Jakobi Meyers @ LAC
Dhop vs CIN

Leaning Jakobi Meyers if Jimmy G clears protocol and plays but if not then likely going DHop with Burks out. I’m not sure I want to rely on a garbage time TD with Garrett as much as I love his talent. Any thoughts are appreciated

 

[TedyBruschi]

0.5 PPR 12 Team League -

Who do I sit at FLEX between:

J. Jeudy @ CHI
D. Hopkins vs CIN
J. Ford vs BALT
R. White @ NO
DJ Moore vs DEN

Need to sit 1 - thanks!

 

[shadrap]

Full PPR

Zay Flowers @ Cleveland (OBJ & Bateman out)
Jerome Ford v Baltimore

I have Ford in ATM

so hard to bench Ford because of volume, but I like Flowers a lot.

 

[Lionz will turn it around!]

Standard

BJan vs Jax - Just scared of playing in London and more importantly Ridder sucks.
JCook vs Miami - I know he is not getting the TD's but I feel he is due.

Thank you, sir!

 

[Chaka]

Standard

BJan vs Jax - Just scared of playing in London and more importantly Ridder sucks.
JCook vs Miami - I know he is not getting the TD's but I feel he is due.

Thank you, sir!

Overthinking IMO. Scoring in London games is the same as games in the United States.

Bijan>Cook

 

[Chaka]

Full PPR

Zay Flowers @ Cleveland (OBJ & Bateman out)
Jerome Ford v Baltimore

I have Ford in ATM

so hard to bench Ford because of volume, but I like Flowers a lot.

Yeah, I agree but I keep going back and forth about who to bench between Flowers @ Cle Ford v Baltimore & Dell v Pit.

I had Dell as the lock but with both starting tackles out for Houston I am reconsidering him too.

Bottom line is there is an argument for all of them. I just prefer to lock in before Sunday as I hate making game day substitutions.

 

[zeke2222]

PPR WHICH TE?

pitts vs jax
or
henry vs Dallas?

 

[zeke2222]

PPR

LOCKETT VS GIANTS
OR
THIELEN VS MIN?

 

[Chaka]

PPR WHICH TE?

pitts vs jax
or
henry vs Dallas?

I guess Henry. Neither are particularly exciting but Henry has been better across the board (only by a small margin, but still), seems to be a bigger part of the offense and has been on the field for 52 more snaps so far this season than Pitts.

I don't think Pitts is a bad player but the Falcons don't seem particularly interested in maximizing his contributions.

Henry>Pitts

 

[Chaka]

PPR

LOCKETT VS GIANTS
OR
THIELEN VS MIN?

WHY ARE YOU YELLING?!?!?

Lockett pretty easily for me but I don't have a lot of faith in Bryce Young. Objectively, however Thielen has been getting a lot of looks over the last two games. Dalton peppered him with 14 last week and Young with 9 the week before. I think the Panthers realize he is their best WR. They also have a home game against a weak passing and scoring defense.

The Seahawks face a Giants team that seems vulnerable to the run and Lockett hasn't seen quite as many snaps as Thielen (7 less per game) or targets. In a PPR the right choice is probably

Thielen>Lockett

 

[Skipdog77]

Full PPR, WR 3 spot:

Drake London vs Jags, in his namesake
or
D'Andre Hopkins vs Cincy, with no Burks

 

[Chaka]

Full PPR, WR 3 spot:

Drake London vs Jags, in his namesake
or
D'Andre Hopkins vs Cincy, with no Burks

London.

He's on the field more, probably physically more talented, seems to be a GL target, plays for a team that scores a little more and is playing against a team that gives up more points.

Neither is terribly exciting so I'll bet on youth
London>Hopkins

 

[kyoun1e]

Kickers are important too.

G. Gano vs SEA -- This could be a sneaky high scoring game. Weather looks good. Gano was on fire last year. Expect NYG to rebound a bit.

or

J. Meyers @NYG - Same game. SEA offense should be able to move the ball against this D. Meyers missed a couple a week or two ago but nailed 5 FGs last week.

Which?

Thanks

 

[Genester]

Superflex, need 2 of the 3 to start, non-QBs get 1 point per 1st down:

Aidan O’Connell @ LA Chargers
Jerome Ford vs. Baltimore
Tank Dell vs. Pittsburgh

thanks in advance!

 

[Chaka]

Kickers are important too.

G. Gano vs SEA -- This could be a sneaky high scoring game. Weather looks good. Gano was on fire last year. Expect NYG to rebound a bit.

or

J. Meyers @NYG - Same game. SEA offense should be able to move the ball against this D. Meyers missed a couple a week or two ago but nailed 5 FGs last week.

Which?

Thanks

Kickers are random number generators. Pick the one from the team you think will win.

Meyers>Gano

 

[Chaka]

Superflex, need 2 of the 3 to start, non-QBs get 1 point per 1st down:

Aidan O’Connell
jerome Ford
Tank Dell

thanks in advance!

In a SF you're almost obligated to go with the QB. It's tougher in this situation but the Chargers defense isn't that good to begin with and I believe Derwin James is already out and Bosa is doubtful. 189 yards and a TD seems like a decent baseline for O'Connell with decent upside.

I have been going back and forth on Ford v Dell all week and haven't reached a conclusion.

I think I lean towards Ford but it's razor thin.

O'Connell>Ford>Dell

 

[Wrigley]

Need one

.5PPR

Nico vs PIT
Lockett @ NYG
Hall vs KC

 

[Chaka]

Need one

.5PPR

Nico vs PIT
Lockett @ NYG
Hall vs KC

I think Nico makes the most sense. I am concerned about the Steelers pass rush but this offense seems designed to move the ball through the air. Last week is a concern but Nico seems like the true #1 on this team.

Lockett is also a fine choice and probably has the biggest ceiling but the Giants have been terrible against the run and will be content to grind if they can.

Hall is the only option on the Jets and everyone knows it. That offense is just bad and I think you have better options.

Nico>Lockett>Hall

 

[Mojo56]

PPR...I need 1 for my flex: Godwin...Najeh...Kamara...Hopkins...B.Hall. I have Godwin in now but I'm leaning towards swapping for Kamara. I just can't bring myself to play N.Harris. Najeh was supposed to be my #1 RB. If I can't play him this week when can I?

 

[Chaka]

PPR...I need 1 for my flex: Godwin...Najeh...Kamara...Hopkins...B.Hall. I have Godwin in now but I'm leaning towards swapping for Kamara. I just can't bring myself to play N.Harris. Najeh was supposed to be my #1 RB. If I can't play him this week when can I?

I really appreciate it if you include matchup information in your posts. The thread does take a long time to maintain.

Looking at your options, I immediately think Kamara is the right choice. He should be a big part of the offense. He's a triple threat. They have nothing behind him and they have a strong defense that should allow them to hold on to leads.

Godwin has been too inconsistent, Najee isn't in a full-time share, but he's in a semi -time share and he just hasn't been that good, no interest in Hopkins, and Bruce Hall has too much stacked against him including his own team.

Kamara>Najee>Godwin>Hall>Hopkins

 

[-OZ-]

SF Ppr not TE enhanced
Mims @ Chicago
Woods vs Pittsburg
Walker vs Seattle MNF

leaning Mims
If ekeler doesn’t play, do you start woods or Wwillaller?

Also, if Carr plays do you start him vs Tampa over Dak vs the patriots or Watson vs Batmobile?

I assume you mean Waller.

This is a tough call. Woods is garnering a higher snap share than both Nico & Dell. He's also seeing 8 targets/game. But his efficiency is pretty weak. I think he has the higher snap share because he's better at the off ball stuff than the other receivers also his targets have dropped every week while Dell's took a big bump after week one. It's not much to go on but I have trouble rolling with a guy with this much downside and not a ton of upside. Doesn't mean he can't find the end zone, he will of course I just don't want to try and time it.

Mims is super exciting to watch but he doesn't get on the field a lot with only 25% of the snaps played. He had 5 targets last week but we all saw that game, and we need to immediately throw it out the window. If you get points for return yards & TDs I think he is an interesting upside play if not I just don't see how you can roll with him when you have two options who will be on the field 75% of the time. Mims doesn't have a nearly as safe of a floor in PPR format.

I believe in Waller's talent, mostly, but that team just looks bad. Still he's getting looks (almost 7/game), I think he's their best receiver and the Seattle defense is very weak against the pass (31st in attempts & yards and 29th in points). The only decent TE they faced was LaPorta and he had 5-63-0.

If you're going to bank on a guy to have a good game I tentatively, and without much confidence think
Waller>Woods>Mims

ETA: Missed your second question. Man I really hope that Baltimore auto corrects to Batmobile. I don't know why but that would be awesome in my world.

Watson is playing better and, with the loss of Chubb he is much more important to the success of the franchise. But I still believe the identity of the franchise is run as much as possible. That will be less with Ford/Hunt but I don't see them morphing into a weekly 65% passing frequency team if they can at all help it.

I think Dallas has a lot of good passing options and should pull out a win this week. But Belichick can still turn games ugly for opposing teams.

Yeah, this is a really difficult call for me but since it looks like Watson is having shoulder issues (apparently threw one pass then went to see the "trainer" today at practice) I think the smart play is
Dak>Deshaun

Am I making a big mistake starting DTR over Carr? The shoulder injury is a concern. My other option at SF is Waller, Barkley if he plays, or Paris Campbell.

 

[Chaka]

SF Ppr not TE enhanced
Mims @ Chicago
Woods vs Pittsburg
Walker vs Seattle MNF

leaning Mims
If ekeler doesn’t play, do you start woods or Wwillaller?

Also, if Carr plays do you start him vs Tampa over Dak vs the patriots or Watson vs Batmobile?

I assume you mean Waller.

This is a tough call. Woods is garnering a higher snap share than both Nico & Dell. He's also seeing 8 targets/game. But his efficiency is pretty weak. I think he has the higher snap share because he's better at the off ball stuff than the other receivers also his targets have dropped every week while Dell's took a big bump after week one. It's not much to go on but I have trouble rolling with a guy with this much downside and not a ton of upside. Doesn't mean he can't find the end zone, he will of course I just don't want to try and time it.

Mims is super exciting to watch but he doesn't get on the field a lot with only 25% of the snaps played. He had 5 targets last week but we all saw that game, and we need to immediately throw it out the window. If you get points for return yards & TDs I think he is an interesting upside play if not I just don't see how you can roll with him when you have two options who will be on the field 75% of the time. Mims doesn't have a nearly as safe of a floor in PPR format.

I believe in Waller's talent, mostly, but that team just looks bad. Still he's getting looks (almost 7/game), I think he's their best receiver and the Seattle defense is very weak against the pass (31st in attempts & yards and 29th in points). The only decent TE they faced was LaPorta and he had 5-63-0.

If you're going to bank on a guy to have a good game I tentatively, and without much confidence think
Waller>Woods>Mims

ETA: Missed your second question. Man I really hope that Baltimore auto corrects to Batmobile. I don't know why but that would be awesome in my world.

Watson is playing better and, with the loss of Chubb he is much more important to the success of the franchise. But I still believe the identity of the franchise is run as much as possible. That will be less with Ford/Hunt but I don't see them morphing into a weekly 65% passing frequency team if they can at all help it.

I think Dallas has a lot of good passing options and should pull out a win this week. But Belichick can still turn games ugly for opposing teams.

Yeah, this is a really difficult call for me but since it looks like Watson is having shoulder issues (apparently threw one pass then went to see the "trainer" today at practice) I think the smart play is
Dak>Deshaun

Am I making a big mistake starting DTR over Carr? The shoulder injury is a concern. My other option at SF is Waller, Barkley if he plays, or Paris Campbell.

Wish I could say anything with confidence.

Totally understand the concern about Carr and DTR can run at the very least.

No, you're not crazy.

 

[Mojo56]

PPR...I need 1 for my flex: Godwin...Najeh...Kamara...Hopkins...B.Hall. I have Godwin in now but I'm leaning towards swapping for Kamara. I just can't bring myself to play N.Harris. Najeh was supposed to be my #1 RB. If I can't play him this week when can I?

I really appreciate it if you include matchup information in your posts. The thread does take a long time to maintain.

Looking at your options, I immediately think Kamara is the right choice. He should be a big part of the offense. He's a triple threat. They have nothing behind him and they have a strong defense that should allow them to hold on to leads.

Godwin has been too inconsistent, Najee isn't in a full-time share, but he's in a semi -time share and he just hasn't been that good, no interest in Hopkins, and Bruce Hall has too much stacked against him including his own team.

Kamara>Najee>Godwin>Hall>Hopkins

Thanks. Will do. Appreciate you doing this.

 

[biju]

Waddle or Aiyuk? I can't believe I'm having such a tough time with this.

 

[Neal Cassady]

CJ Stroud or Dak Prescott? Thinking about going with Stroud. My matchup is projected at 50/50.

 

[McBokonon]

PPR - have RB luxury so need one of Ford and Mostert for Flex. I think the immediate answer most would have is Mostert, but I think Ford will get volume. Vegas has his total yards slightly higher than Mostert FWIW with Mostert more likely to score.

 

[Chaka]

Waddle or Aiyuk? I can't believe I'm having such a tough time with this.

I like both quite a bit so no wrong answer. But I lean Aiyuk in a good matchup with Deebo less than 100%.

Aiyuk>Waddle

 

[Chaka]

CJ Stroud or Dak Prescott? Thinking about going with Stroud. My matchup is projected at 50/50.

Matchup projections don't sway me. Anyone ever check their accuracy?

I get it with Stroud and with the potential volume he's a good start but I am still holding on to the notion that Dallas can field an elite offense even if they play great D...at least for one more week.

Dak>Stroud

 

[Chaka]

PPR - have RB luxury so need one of Ford and Mostert for Flex. I think the immediate answer most would have is Mostert, but I think Ford will get volume. Vegas has his total yards slightly higher than Mostert FWIW with Mostert more likely to score.

Agree with Vegas.

My 100% biased (because I'm starting him) gut call is the Cleveland o-line shows up big and gives the Browns a chance to win this week.

Again, super biased but

Ford>Mostert

 

[zeke2222]

PPR

pierce vs Pitt
or
warren vs Hou?