Pick 3. PPR
Gus Edwards @ TBB
Najee Harris @ PHI
Amari Cooper vs CIN
Terry Mclaurin @ IND
Courtland Sutton @ JAC (London)
No to Sutton outright, you have better options. ETA: After writing out my thoughts below I realize I may have been reactionary on this. This is why I like this thread, it helps me challenge my perceptions.
I like Amari a little more this week with Njoku out. He is always capable of a 4-6 target game but he's been a double digit guy more regularly. The weird thing is he doesn't seem to be a middle ground guy. It's either 12 targets or 4 targets, the real bad part is he seldom catches a high percentage of his targets (57.6% on the season). Still, with the Bengals coming on offensively and possibly losing their best pass rusher in Hendrickson (anyone have an update on him?) he has to be a strong candidate for a solid week. Obviously the problem always exists that any Cleveland game could be Chubb, Chubb, Chubb, Hunt, Chubb etc. all day. You also have to worry about Jacoby Brissett being relatively low volume with average accuracy and the fact that he averages less than a TD per game. But Amari has been on the receiving end of 4 of Brisett's 6 TD passes.
I think we all semi-believe that Taylor Heinicke is a marginal QB, at best, in the NFL. But I also think a lot of us also believe he has a bit of swagger to him and maybe could unlock Terry a bit. The numbers last week don't necessarily support that. With Wentz he has 2 games with the same or more targets, same for receptions, 3 with more yards, 4 with more y/r, 3 with a better catch % & 5 with a better yards/target. Point being is last week was more of the same, which is decent but not great. I like him more than Sutton but not Amari.
Najee Harris has to be the least interesting RB in the NFL to watch. He gets hit 2 yards before contact and falls forward for 1.3 yards. Rinse and repeat. He breaks a tackle every 14 attempts. His long run of the season on 100 carries is 16 yards. He's boring AF. I'd love to make an argument about volume and some consistency, and there is a kernel of truth to it; he has at least 3 receptions in 4 games (2 in 2 others), he has a TD in 3 of 7 games and the like. But he's only exceeded 80 total yards twice. His other games are 26, 61, 74, 36 & 49. If you combine the stats week over week he's put up 9, 10, 12, 4, 5, 11 & 8 fantasy points in my full PPR league (probably a little better in yours as we do 1 point for every 15 yards rush+rec, not 10 like most leagues). That's good enough for a low end RB2 (22nd in my league). He's a classic "can't bench him but hate to play him" guy. And what's his real upside at this point? Could he get 3 short yardage TDs in one game? Sure, but it feels like he's almost as likely to get 3 TDs RoS. In context to your question, McLaurin has been better a lot more consistently so far. Although, on paper, Najee apparently has a better matchup. And now, I'm wondering if maybe I like him less than Sutton who has been consistently better prior to the last two games (and still averages more points on the season)
That brings to Gus. For starters he's probably a non factor in the passing game. Ravens don't throw to backs often and Gus seems low in that pecking order. However, dude looks good every time he touches the ball. He only averaged 4.1 YPC on 16 carries last week but he averages 5.2 on 414 carries prior. It seems like the Ravens score a lot of rushing TDs, but they don't, they have 6 which is good for a six way tie for 15th in the league. So what do we think about this guy going against a reeling Bucs defense who have given up 189, 151, 77 & 173 rushing yards, over their last four games? I have no f###$$$ clue. He's your x-factor, I think he's a high upside guy with maybe a 45 total yards, 0 TD floor. I also think he's your most fun guy to root for. If Russell Wilson were healthy I would have Sutton over him, but he's not (and they're in London, which I don't like). Najee is probably a safer play as well but, again boring AF.
Yeah, tough call after Amari & Terry.
Amari>McLaurin>+Gus>*Sutton>Najee
*If Russell Wilson plays give Sutton a bump.
+Because Gus has upside and is more fun to root for.
) congratulations on drafting such a solid team. The only downside is that week-to-week you won't hit all the right calls, that's tough enough when you don't have a deep roster.
