Week 1 - Deceptive Final Scores (1 Viewer)

[tombonneau]

So between the knowledge of superfans of each team who watch every game twice along with the advent of the Game Rewind on iPad (which is frankly amazing being able to watch condensed games in 25-30 minutes) there's really no reason that the faithful of the SP should ever have to fall victim to glancing at a final score and being deceived.

That's why I'd like to try to start weekly threads that point out a handful of games that if you just look at the final score you might get a wrong idea of how the game went.

To me what really jumped out as a deceptive final score both as I was now-and-then watching it at the sports bar on Sunday and then when I watched the condensed version last night is:

Falcons 40

Chiefs 24

This game was very close until midway through the third Cassel just made a couple of really boneheaded passes that gave the Falcons short fields and they blew the game open. What's hidden in this score is that KC has a competitive offense that if it can limit turnovers can hang with alleged high octane offenses like Atlanta.

I think you also get a somewhat false positive that Atlanta has a big time high scoring offense. They moved the ball, yes, but to me they weren't quite at that NE/NO/GB level which some who swallowed the preseason Kool-Aid will certainly believe looking at the final score; they were certainly helped by the aforementioned short fields, along with KC being short two of their best defenders in Flowers & Hali. Which also IMO yielded a false negative on the KC defense; I don't think they are nearly this bad.

So what other games did some of you watch that feel the final score is not indicative of the actual on-the-field product?

 

[renesauz]

Philly-Cleveland

Philly moved the ball easily the entire game, but kept shooting itself in the foot with Vick interceptions and untimely penalites. FIVE turnovers!

Philly dominated TOP and more than doubled Cleveland in yards. Despite reports to the contrary, Vick was the only Philly player who played terribly (and the HC/OC who called 60 some pass plays when his QB was having an off night and his all pro RB was having a good night!) Recall however that Vick barely played in preseason (only like 12 snaps)...he was more than a little rusty and this performance might not necessarily indicate a bad season for him. Bad or even mediocre teams don't win road games with five turnovers, regardless of how weak their opponent is.

 

[munygon2]

I thought Cincinatti looked better than their scored indicated. The game was close at half and got out of hand in just a couple of plays later in the game. I expect them to have a big game this weekend with Green and BJGE getting nice production.

 

[donkshow]

I thought Cincinatti looked better than their scored indicated. The game was close at half and got out of hand in just a couple of plays later in the game. I expect them to have a big game this weekend with Green and BJGE getting nice production.

Agreed. They are going to destroy Cleveland.

 

[tombonneau]

Philly-ClevelandPhilly moved the ball easily the entire game, but kept shooting itself in the foot with Vick interceptions and untimely penalites. FIVE turnovers!Philly dominated TOP and more than doubled Cleveland in yards. Despite reports to the contrary, Vick was the only Philly player who played terribly (and the HC/OC who called 60 some pass plays when his QB was having an off night and his all pro RB was having a good night!) Recall however that Vick barely played in preseason (only like 12 snaps)...he was more than a little rusty and this performance might not necessarily indicate a bad season for him. Bad or even mediocre teams don't win road games with five turnovers, regardless of how weak their opponent is.

Nice. This is exactly what I'm talking about. I didn't get a chance to pay much attention to this game and just assumed Philly was a hot mess across the board. Great point that even average teams can't win on the road with 5 turnovers.

 

[butcher boy]

The Niner/GB was more one-sided than how it looked. While the officiating was bad on both sides, it was clearly worse and had more consequences against the 49ers. The referee-adjusted score was more like 30-14 at best.

 

[Steve Tasker]

IMO, the Bills/Jets game wasn't as close as the final score indicated. The Jets took their collective feet off the pedal in the early 3rd when they went up 41-7. The Bills racked up a bunch of garbage yards (and 3 Fitz TDs) against a seemingly-vanilla defensive look from the Jets. Maybe someone who watched the game with more of a focus on the NYJ defense could tell more. When the game did actually seem to be getting close - the Bills made it 41-28 with maybe 6 minutes or so left in the 4th - the Jets woke up and cruised to another TD on their next drive, effectively closing the door.

I hate to say it, and maybe some Bills fans disagree with me, but if the Jets had gone harder, the game could've ended like 55-14. Not saying the Jets didn't try their hardest, of course, just that the game was so out of reach and the Bills looked totally deflated.

I'm not sure if that's more an indication of what we're going to see from the Bills this season, or if the Jets are a lot better than a lot of people anticipated.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

IMO, the Bills/Jets game wasn't as close as the final score indicated. The Jets took their collective feet off the pedal (___Rex Ryan Joke Here___) in the early 3rd when they went up 41-7. The Bills racked up a bunch of garbage yards (and 3 Fitz TDs) against a seemingly-vanilla defensive look from the Jets. Maybe someone who watched the game with more of a focus on the NYJ defense could tell more. When the game did actually seem to be getting close - the Bills made it 41-28 with maybe 6 minutes or so left in the 4th - the Jets woke up and cruised to another TD on their next drive, effectively closing the door.

I hate to say it, and maybe some Bills fans disagree with me, but if the Jets had gone harder, the game could've ended like 55-14. Not saying the Jets didn't try their hardest, of course, just that the game was so out of reach and the Bills looked totally deflated.

I'm not sure if that's more an indication of what we're going to see from the Bills this season, or if the Jets are a lot better than a lot of people anticipated.

 

[JoeSteeler]

If you are a subscriber, FBG started a new feature called "From the Tape" you might find a good read.

This article is an accumulation of observations from watching every play of every NFL game this and every week. We will include observations from the game tape, along with fantasy analysis. Even though I watch every game, this article is not meant to be exhaustive. Rather, just some fantasy-notable observations which you would not gain from the box score.

 

[tombonneau]

If you are a subscriber, FBG started a new feature called "From the Tape" you might find a good read.

This article is an accumulation of observations from watching every play of every NFL game this and every week. We will include observations from the game tape, along with fantasy analysis. Even though I watch every game, this article is not meant to be exhaustive. Rather, just some fantasy-notable observations which you would not gain from the box score.

Wasn't aware of this subscriber feature. Thanks.

 

[JoeSteeler]

If you are a subscriber, FBG started a new feature called "From the Tape" you might find a good read.

This article is an accumulation of observations from watching every play of every NFL game this and every week. We will include observations from the game tape, along with fantasy analysis. Even though I watch every game, this article is not meant to be exhaustive. Rather, just some fantasy-notable observations which you would not gain from the box score.

Wasn't aware of this subscriber feature. Thanks.

I wasn't either until MOP started a thread about it. http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=656515&pid=14761663&st=0entry14761663

 

[NYRAGE]

IMO, the Bills/Jets game wasn't as close as the final score indicated. The Jets took their collective feet off the pedal in the early 3rd when they went up 41-7. The Bills racked up a bunch of garbage yards (and 3 Fitz TDs) against a seemingly-vanilla defensive look from the Jets. Maybe someone who watched the game with more of a focus on the NYJ defense could tell more. When the game did actually seem to be getting close - the Bills made it 41-28 with maybe 6 minutes or so left in the 4th - the Jets woke up and cruised to another TD on their next drive, effectively closing the door.I hate to say it, and maybe some Bills fans disagree with me, but if the Jets had gone harder, the game could've ended like 55-14. Not saying the Jets didn't try their hardest, of course, just that the game was so out of reach and the Bills looked totally deflated.I'm not sure if that's more an indication of what we're going to see from the Bills this season, or if the Jets are a lot better than a lot of people anticipated.

They did let up a bit and Revis got hurt in the 4th quarter before those last two tds. That said, one of the early Jets tds was that Kerley punt return plus another was due to the INT return for a td. So, neutral effect at worst. Buffalo probably won't see too many of those.That Spiller td was a joke though. Great run by him, but that idiot Bart Scott could have easily tackled him at the 35 yard line, but decided to go straight for the strip instead of at least a tackle & strip attempt. Horrible. Then he goes out and hurts Revis in the 4th quarter. Big-mouthed disaster.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

IMO, the Bills/Jets game wasn't as close as the final score indicated. The Jets took their collective feet off the pedal in the early 3rd when they went up 41-7. The Bills racked up a bunch of garbage yards (and 3 Fitz TDs) against a seemingly-vanilla defensive look from the Jets. Maybe someone who watched the game with more of a focus on the NYJ defense could tell more. When the game did actually seem to be getting close - the Bills made it 41-28 with maybe 6 minutes or so left in the 4th - the Jets woke up and cruised to another TD on their next drive, effectively closing the door.I hate to say it, and maybe some Bills fans disagree with me, but if the Jets had gone harder, the game could've ended like 55-14. Not saying the Jets didn't try their hardest, of course, just that the game was so out of reach and the Bills looked totally deflated.I'm not sure if that's more an indication of what we're going to see from the Bills this season, or if the Jets are a lot better than a lot of people anticipated.

Yeremiah Bell admitted that the Jets defense lost their intensity and eased up with the score 41-7. Rex Ryan was none too pleased at that admission.

 

[flysack]

I thought Cincinatti looked better than their scored indicated. The game was close at half and got out of hand in just a couple of plays later in the game. I expect them to have a big game this weekend with Green and BJGE getting nice production.

This. I think a good Bengals team just ran into an unstoppable force in the best Baltimore team since 2000. You have to love how the Law Firm ran for over 5 a rush though - against Baltimore.