Week #1 Projections (1 Viewer)

[Islander]

If this is subscriber material and I should not be posting this, please delete. I will intentionally not mention specific stats, but just the ranking.

If anybody has feedback on those observations, please jump in. I am also curious to see the rationale of JN.

G Wilson #1 DB. For safeties who play strong run support, I generally prefer matchups against running teams. Playing the Colts is not that great of a matchup for Gibril I think. Not only are the Colts expected to pass more than last year, but in addition they are only 3 pt favorites so there is a non-negligible probability they are behind in the 2nd half and have to pass rather than protect a big lead if they were playing a bad team at home.

D Ryans #50 LB. I understand the Eagles matchup is not ideal because they pass a lot, but they want to run more this year. Buckhalter is often injured, but he is not yet. Until he's injured, I see the Eagles running more than in 2005.

A Wilson #16 DB. The DB king of 2005 is playing the 49ers - not a great matchup for tackles and assists. But it should be decent for turnovers and sacks. JN does not seem to give him much credit there.

N Clemens #26 DB. The Pats matchup is not a bad matchup. Why so low?

Comments?

 

[bonscott]

Here's something to remember when looking at projections.

Don't pay attention so much to the ranking as to the points scored.

Example: Ryans at #50. There is less then 3 points difference between #50 and #25. One extra tackle or so and Ryans is #25. A big play or another tackle or two and he's top 10 which is only 4 points difference from #50.

Clemens at #26. Only 2.5 points between 26 and the top 5.

So again, don't get all hung up on "why is this guy ranked #60", look at the projected points and you'll probably see there isn't much difference between him and someone ranked #25.

 

[helix]

These rankings are just a guide. I find it always better to go with your gut if you disagree with a matchup. Example: I would never have Mike Peterson (considering his injury) at #12 and start him over a guy like KBulluck. In the end, your informed opinion has just about the same probability of being right as these rankings. Good luck.