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Lawrence seems to be a clear choice to me. Good supporting cast, great matchup, playing very hot...seems to be the best balance of floor & upside.
Thanks...We're in lock step.
Do you have QB options for week 15 & 17 when Geno faces the Niners & Jets or is this a ride-or-die situation?
Despite his recent struggles against them, I'd go Brady against NO. Brady should have a fully healthy supporting cast for the 1st time this week.
I'd go Watson at QB. Just think he's gonna be heavily featured this week.
I'd go NE. Matchup is worse sure, but the defense is just so much better.
Stevenson>Taylor>Walker is how I see it.
Wilson and Gus for sure. I'd go Diontae at WR, in a great matchup.
Watson
Thanks for this. I was leaning Robinson over Pacheco as well despite Pacheco being ranked higher than Robinson on every single ranking list I have seen. That being said, it looks like BOTH McKinnon AND Gibson missed practice today so maybe my decision will be made for me. Now I am going to throw you a curveball. If BOTH McKinnon AND Gibson miss this week's game, WDIS between them (probably still Robinson) or do I start them both and bench my current flex (Christian Watson). Its a half ppr league.Very interesting dilemma.
Pachco has been remarkably good running and has received a consistent 18 carries per game over his last three games averaging 4.9 y/c. He also has 5 rushes from inside the 5 yard line too (1 TD). He seems like a strong option, and in that offense he is a strong option. The downside I see is:
1) the Rams game feels a bit like an outlier for usage, he had 7 more opportunities (22) than his previous high water mark (16), so I think tempering expectations to 15 carries is appropriate.2) KC is still a pass first team. In strong wins against Jax & the Rams the pass:run ratio was 35:27 & 42:30, in a close game v the Chargers it was 34:27. In those three games Pacheco's snap counts were 56%, 51% & 40%. With Mahomes & Reid there is always the chance of the run game getting mostly ignored.3) this is a reasonably difficult matchup and I wouldn't hold out hope of being able to predict game script. A shootout? Maybe, last two times they met it was 27-24 & 31-34. But predicting game script is an exercise in futility (Buf 24 KC 20). And if it is a shoot out, or a close game on any level, Pacheco's snap count will probably drop in favor of McKinnon like it did against the Chargers (40%).Robinson has been, kind of a pedestrian runner all season until he finally had a very nice game last week against a bad Atlanta rush defense. Maybe it was an outlier, maybe Robinson if finally back from the gunshot wound and is showing what the Commodores saw in TC. The good news is Robinson is facing, arguably a worse run defense this week. The Giants give up more yards & more yards per carry than the Falcons. The Giants are also in a bit of a free fall (losing 3 of 4) while the Commodores appear to be surging, winning 6 of 7 games. In addition the Commodores are a run first team since Heinicke took over with pass:run ratios of 33:38, 31:28 28:30, 29:49, 27:40, 23:37 over their last four games. They average 37 rush attempts per game over their last six (Heinicke starts) compared to 28 per game for the Chiefs during Pacheco's recent three game run. The Chiefs have had 37 rush attempts once this season (week 4) and one game with 30. I believe Robinson will get 18 carries regardless of game script. But there is plenty of risk:
1) Washington, with Heinicke, scores about 8.6 fewer points per game than the Chiefs.2) Robinson doesn't get a more of a snap share than Pacheco. Over Robinson's last six (since Heinicke) he averages 29 snaps per game, Pacheco over his las three (because that is where his utilization seems to have taken a jump) he averages 33 snaps (28 over his 5 games as a starter). What this means is they are likely to see a similar number of snaps. And probably a nearly identical amount of utilization.So, how do we make a decision here? I have just spent far, far too much of a workday playing with numbers hoping they would illuminate something, anything. What it comes down to is I think Pacheco has the higher ceiling, because he's on a better team, and the lower floor because in a close game or loss McKinnon seems to be the favored option.
If it was my roster I think I go with the surging Commodores against the flailing Giants but, it really is a coin toss.
Robinson>Pacheco
wish I could be more helpful.
I might lean a little harder into Robinson in that case. McKissic is on IR and I am not sure who the next man up would be (Samuel maybe). Whoever it is Robinson is probably in line for more carries as Gibson was getting over 11 carries per game over the last 6. Robinson will probably see a reception or two bump but the real room for growth is Gibson's vacated carries. With Pacheco I think he will see a few more receptions but MGIII probably steps into a portion of the McKinnon roll. Pacheco was already getting the lion's share of the designed rushes so there may not be as much new work to go around.Thanks for this. I was leaning Robinson over Pacheco as well despite Pacheco being ranked higher than Robinson on every single ranking list I have seen. That being said, it looks like BOTH McKinnon AND Gibson missed practice today so maybe my decision will be made for me. Now I am going to throw you a curveball. If BOTH McKinnon AND Gibson miss this week's game, WDIS between them (probably still Robinson) or do I start them both and bench my current flex (Christian Watson). Its a half ppr league.Very interesting dilemma.
Pachco has been remarkably good running and has received a consistent 18 carries per game over his last three games averaging 4.9 y/c. He also has 5 rushes from inside the 5 yard line too (1 TD). He seems like a strong option, and in that offense he is a strong option. The downside I see is:
1) the Rams game feels a bit like an outlier for usage, he had 7 more opportunities (22) than his previous high water mark (16), so I think tempering expectations to 15 carries is appropriate.2) KC is still a pass first team. In strong wins against Jax & the Rams the pass:run ratio was 35:27 & 42:30, in a close game v the Chargers it was 34:27. In those three games Pacheco's snap counts were 56%, 51% & 40%. With Mahomes & Reid there is always the chance of the run game getting mostly ignored.3) this is a reasonably difficult matchup and I wouldn't hold out hope of being able to predict game script. A shootout? Maybe, last two times they met it was 27-24 & 31-34. But predicting game script is an exercise in futility (Buf 24 KC 20). And if it is a shoot out, or a close game on any level, Pacheco's snap count will probably drop in favor of McKinnon like it did against the Chargers (40%).Robinson has been, kind of a pedestrian runner all season until he finally had a very nice game last week against a bad Atlanta rush defense. Maybe it was an outlier, maybe Robinson if finally back from the gunshot wound and is showing what the Commodores saw in TC. The good news is Robinson is facing, arguably a worse run defense this week. The Giants give up more yards & more yards per carry than the Falcons. The Giants are also in a bit of a free fall (losing 3 of 4) while the Commodores appear to be surging, winning 6 of 7 games. In addition the Commodores are a run first team since Heinicke took over with pass:run ratios of 33:38, 31:28 28:30, 29:49, 27:40, 23:37 over their last four games. They average 37 rush attempts per game over their last six (Heinicke starts) compared to 28 per game for the Chiefs during Pacheco's recent three game run. The Chiefs have had 37 rush attempts once this season (week 4) and one game with 30. I believe Robinson will get 18 carries regardless of game script. But there is plenty of risk:
1) Washington, with Heinicke, scores about 8.6 fewer points per game than the Chiefs.2) Robinson doesn't get a more of a snap share than Pacheco. Over Robinson's last six (since Heinicke) he averages 29 snaps per game, Pacheco over his las three (because that is where his utilization seems to have taken a jump) he averages 33 snaps (28 over his 5 games as a starter). What this means is they are likely to see a similar number of snaps. And probably a nearly identical amount of utilization.So, how do we make a decision here? I have just spent far, far too much of a workday playing with numbers hoping they would illuminate something, anything. What it comes down to is I think Pacheco has the higher ceiling, because he's on a better team, and the lower floor because in a close game or loss McKinnon seems to be the favored option.
If it was my roster I think I go with the surging Commodores against the flailing Giants but, it really is a coin toss.
Robinson>Pacheco
Im currently 6-6 and have to win my last 2 games to make the playoffs.
Stevenson, Jacobs, Aiyuk & G.Wilson seem like locks and with Keenan Allen back so does Moreau.
Then, since it seems like you're really playing week-to-week, yes. No risk it, no biscuit.
Really not much to work with here but, since Justin Fields was a full go in practice, I would consider Claypool. He's been in the offense for a month and is now the #1 WR with Mooney out at home against a fading Packers team.
Jacobs and Stevenson at RB
I'd go Claypool. He's pretty much the last man standing at WR for Chicago and could see 7-10 targets, good chance Fields is back this week too.
Nice freakin' team!
I'd go Stevenson for sure. Right now, I'd lean Barkley in the 2nd spot, but I'm to CMC's if we get good health news.
I'm not worried about the wind, but I prefer Myers anyway.
Either but I lean Burrow this week.
Rhamondre & McCaffrey
Full PPR so, yes, start Rhamondre tonight. I will look at the rest later.
We already covered Rhamondre so you need 1 RB, 3 WR & 1 Flex
If it's absolute upside you need then I think I bench Zeke, right? Zeke has been pretty solid all year but even his 2 TD games have only turned into 15 & 16 magic football points (full PPR, 1 pt 15 yds rush/rec). The others have done better
IMO Zeke & Lockett have just been too steady all year.
Geno & Dak are pretty much interchangeable, aren't they? I think in both cases the biggest worry is they blow out their opponent and end up running the ball 40 times. Ultimately for me it comes down to the Rams having a worse defense pretty much across the board, particularly as they lost Aaron Donald. With Stafford out their ability to put up points is highly suspect so Seattle should have more drives, more plays and more scoring opportunities.
For me it comes down to Watson & Lockett. Don't try to predict game scripts. The Seahawks should win, handily even but how they get there is 100% unpredictable. What I know about that game is the without Aaron Donald the Rams mediocre defense is even worse and without Stafford, Kupp, Robinson etc. their ability to score is diminished. That translates to more drives, more plays and, hopefully, more scoring opportunities for the Seahawks. Lockett is a 5-8 target guy, not a double digit high volume producer. He will get at least 5 targets and he has proven he can do a lot with those. His last two games with 5 targets he has 8 receptions, 109 yards and 2 TDs. He's a great play.
Agree with Kirk. On the fence with Evans. He's been terribly inefficient and New Orleans has given him a lot of trouble in the recent past.
Weird - this first looked like a cooking recipe to me.
IMO you're overthinking QB. Why bench the a top 3 QB for the #15 guy? Great matchup and Lawrence could absolutely outperform Hurts but it would still, again IMO, be the wrong decision.
Honestly, IMO we gotta wait until we have a status on Najee. If he's out, IMO Jaylen is the clear choice.
I'm pretty down on J. Wilson this week. Cross country game, both OTs doubtful against, by far the best run D in the league that hasn't allowed a point in 10 of their last 16 quarters.
Random number generators.
Sea>Cle
Kirk 100% IMO. Not close really.
Well, New Orleans turns over the ball a lot more than Miami. The Saints have given it up 21 times (32nd) compared to 11 times for Miami (T-3rd). Neither Tampa Bay 11 (T-25th) or San Francisco 14 (T-14th) take away the ball particularly well. Both Miami (23) & the Saints (26) have similar sack rates and the Bucs have three more sacks (36) than the Niners (33). The Niners do have the best scoring defense at 15.7ppg but the Bucs aren't far behind with 18.5ppg. The Dolphins are scoring 25.6ppg to only 20.8ppg for the Saints.
