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***Week 13 Picks - Part 2*** (1 Viewer)

Jeff Pasquino

Footballguy
First of all, take these all with a grain of salt.

Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.

Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.

My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.



Week 13 was the first time I took a side in a Thursday game, and the Seahawks didn't disappointment me with their ineptitude. Well done, Seattle. That correct call on the "Under" gave me a nice 1-0 start. Will this be the fourth winning week in the last five? Let's see - I'm tempting fate for sure with a good number of picks.

Here we go:



*ONE STAR GAMES*



Indianapolis Colts (-4) at Cleveland Browns - (1 star)

Indy is on the road, outdoors in the cold and on grass, three strikes against them - but the good news is that they're playing Cleveland. Throw out those issues, plus they seemed to do just fine three weeks ago in Pittsburgh under the same conditions. Derek Anderson is back in the saddle for Cleveland, but his confidence may be shaken given his recent benching. There's a case to be made for him stepping up and playing for a 2009 job, but I have condifence in Braylon Edwards' ability to drop a key touchdown. The real threats are Jamal Lewis and Jerome Harrison with Indy not having Bob Sanders, but the Colts' offense is clicking too well right now. Colts by at least a touchdown.



Carolina Panthers (+3) at Green Bay Packers - (1 star)

Um, what? I get that the Panthers are on the road here, but aren't they 7-4? Green Bay may be in first place, but so is Carolina - in a much, much better division. Jake Delhomme isn't doing much, but he doesn't have to right now. Carolina is running the ball down the opposing teams' throats, and guess what the weakness is for the Green Bay defense? Expect a HUGE day from DeAngelo Williams and Aaron Rodgers and company will not be able to keep pace. Carolina to steal a close game in Wisconsin.



Miami Dolphins at St. Louis Rams (Under 44.5) - (1 star)

This just in - the Rams aren't good. Miami, quite under the radar, actually is pretty good this season. The Rams don't do well on defense - especially against the run - so expect both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams to have good afternoons. I don't think Miami will need 30 and I don't think the Rams get to 14. You might think the sneaky play would be the Dolphins to cover the spread of roughly a touchdown, but remember the Raider game? The Under play is actually a safer call for me. Dolphins 23, Rams 16.



New York Giants at Washington Redskins (Under 41.5) - (1 star)

Yeah, I see the trend too, but what can you do? I expect the Giants to beat Washington and they will key on Clinton Portis. Challenging Jason Campbell is a decent call and the right man to ask to beat you, as no one wants to give Portis running room right now. The Giants are a little short-staffed on offense with no Six Guns Plaxico and possibly not having Ahmad Bradshaw or Brandon Jacobs, but they did seem fine against Arizona with close to that lineup. If Washington is short at linebacker as well (Fletcher is banged up) that could be the key injury. Look for a classic NFC East battle in the 23-17 range.



Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (Over 39.5) - (1 star)

Ooh, look at me, bucking my own trend! I must be crazy? Actually, Big Ben's playing well and the best Cassel since Charlie is looking pretty darn good too. While I doubt a third 400+ yard game, I do expect plenty of points in the passing game on both sides and both teams should reach 20 points.



Kansas City Chiefs (+3) at Oakland Raiders - (1 star)

Sorry to report that the Raiders still have four games left and they still won't get a Top 2 draft pick (not that it would go well anyway). The Chiefs are rolling on offense behind their fearless leader, Tyler Thigpen, who is getting all his weapons on track and plenty of touches. Dwayne Bowe may struggle against the #1 CB in the NFL Nnamdi Asomugha, but Tony Gonzalez, Mark Bradley and Larry Johnson will get enough points on the scoreboard for this one. Expect the Chiefs to not just cover but to win outright.

Atlanta Falcons (+5) at San Diego Chargers - (1 star)

Late addition here. Atlanta is rolling and I had them getting maybe 2.5 points. This is again against the solid NFL trend of going against road teams when they change surfaces, but you have to like the Falcons here. Not only that, but the "Michael Turner revenge factor" will be the top story. I'll roll with the Falcons here to cover the spread even if they don't steal the victory.


**TWO STAR GAMES**

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (Over 41)

- (2 stars)

This should be a back-and-forth scoring fest, and at the least a 23-20 game. 24-24 entering the fourth quarter would not surprise me at all. Green Bay is putting up points but I think Carolina may have got a copy of the Packers/Saints Monday Night game before the Pack could burn all the footage.

New York Giants (-3.5) at Washington Redskins - (2 stars)

The Redskins are playing well, but their wins of late haven't been against the best of the NFL. Let's look at the last six games for a minute: Loss to the Rams, 3-point win over Cleveland, 8-point win over Detroit, 17-point loss to Pittsburgh at home, 4-point loss to Dallas at home, 3-point win over Seattle. Color me unimpressed. Yes the Giants are less than 100% healthy, but they are also one of the deepest teams in the league. Their offensive line is one of the best I've ever seen and that will be the difference. As long as Eli doesn't throw the ball in bad spots the Giants should win by at least six, probably by more than a touchdown.

***THREE STAR GAMES***

Nothing that great this week.

Good luck this week, and remember that if you are tempting fate and actually wagering on these games to bet with your head and not over it.

Enjoy the games.

Lastly, the record:

Week 1 - Didn't post a thread.

Week 2 - Record:4-3-1. (A tad charitable on the push, but the line moved from 3.5 to 3 on CAR/CHI).

Week 3 - Record: 1-2.

Week 4 - Record: 4-3.

Week 5 - Record: 4-2.

Week 6 - Record: 2-3.

Week 7 - Record: 5-8.

Week 8 - Record: 4-5.

Week 9 - Record: 7-3.

Week 10 - Record: 7-3.

Week 11 - Record: 6-4.

Week 12 - Record: 4-4.

Week 13 - Part 1 - Record: 1-0.

Overall: 49-40-1.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
First of all, take these all with a grain of salt.

Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.

Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.

My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.



Week 13 was the first time I took a side in a Thursday game, and the Seahawks didn't disappointment me with their ineptitude. Well done, Seattle. That correct call on the "Under" gave me a nice 1-0 start. Will this be the fourth winning week in the last five? Let's see - I'm tempting fate for sure with a good number of picks.

Here we go:



*ONE STAR GAMES*



Indianapolis Colts (-4) at Cleveland Browns - (1 star)

Indy is on the road, outdoors in the cold and on grass, three strikes against them - but the good news is that they're playing Cleveland. Throw out those issues, plus they seemed to do just fine three weeks ago in Pittsburgh under the same conditions. Derek Anderson is back in the saddle for Cleveland, but his confidence may be shaken given his recent benching. There's a case to be made for him stepping up and playing for a 2009 job, but I have condifence in Braylon Edwards' ability to drop a key touchdown. The real threats are Jamal Lewis and Jerome Harrison with Indy not having Bob Sanders, but the Colts' offense is clicking too well right now. Colts by at least a touchdown.



Carolina Panthers (+3) at Green Bay Packers - (1 star)

Um, what? I get that the Panthers are on the road here, but aren't they 7-4? Green Bay may be in first place, but so is Carolina - in a much, much better division. Jake Delhomme isn't doing much, but he doesn't have to right now. Carolina is running the ball down the opposing teams' throats, and guess what the weakness is for the Green Bay defense? Expect a HUGE day from DeAngelo Williams and Aaron Rodgers and company will not be able to keep pace. Carolina to steal a close game in Wisconsin.



Miami Dolphins at St. Louis Rams (Under 44.5) - (1 star)

This just in - the Rams aren't good. Miami, quite under the radar, actually is pretty good this season. The Rams don't do well on defense - especially against the run - so expect both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams to have good afternoons. I don't think Miami will need 30 and I don't think the Rams get to 14. You might think the sneaky play would be the Dolphins to cover the spread of roughly a touchdown, but remember the Raider game? The Under play is actually a safer call for me. Dolphins 23, Rams 16.



New York Giants at Washington Redskins (Under 41.5) - (1 star)

Yeah, I see the trend too, but what can you do? I expect the Giants to beat Washington and they will key on Clinton Portis. Challenging Jason Campbell is a decent call and the right man to ask to beat you, as no one wants to give Portis running room right now. The Giants are a little short-staffed on offense with no Six Guns Plaxico and possibly not having Ahmad Bradshaw or Brandon Jacobs, but they did seem fine against Arizona with close to that lineup. If Washington is short at linebacker as well (Fletcher is banged up) that could be the key injury. Look for a classic NFC East battle in the 23-17 range.



Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (Over 39.5) - (1 star)

Ooh, look at me, bucking my own trend! I must be crazy? Actually, Big Ben's playing well and the best Cassel since Charlie is looking pretty darn good too. While I doubt a third 400+ yard game, I do expect plenty of points in the passing game on both sides and both teams should reach 20 points.



Kansas City Chiefs (+3) at Oakland Raiders - (1 star)

Sorry to report that the Raiders still have four games left and they still won't get a Top 2 draft pick (not that it would go well anyway). The Chiefs are rolling on offense behind their fearless leader, Tyler Thigpen, who is getting all his weapons on track and plenty of touches. Dwayne Bowe may struggle against the #1 CB in the NFL Nnamdi Asomugha, but Tony Gonzalez, Mark Bradley and Larry Johnson will get enough points on the scoreboard for this one. Expect the Chiefs to not just cover but to win outright.

**TWO STAR GAMES**



Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (Over 41) - (2 stars)

This should be a back-and-forth scoring fest, and at the least a 23-20 game. 24-24 entering the fourth quarter would not surprise me at all. Green Bay is putting up points but I think Carolina may have got a copy of the Packers/Saints Monday Night game before the Pack could burn all the footage.

New York Giants (-3.5) at Washington Redskins - (2 stars)

The Redskins are playing well, but their wins of late haven't been against the best of the NFL. Let's look at the last six games for a minute: Loss to the Rams, 3-point win over Cleveland, 8-point win over Detroit, 17-point loss to Pittsburgh at home, 4-point loss to Dallas at home, 3-point win over Seattle. Color me unimpressed. Yes the Giants are less than 100% healthy, but they are also one of the deepest teams in the league. Their offensive line is one of the best I've ever seen and that will be the difference. As long as Eli doesn't throw the ball in bad spots the Giants should win by at least six, probably by more than a touchdown.

***THREE STAR GAMES***

Nothing that great this week.

Good luck this week, and remember that if you are tempting fate and actually wagering on these games to bet with your head and not over it.

Enjoy the games.

Lastly, the record:

Week 1 - Didn't post a thread.

Week 2 - Record:4-3-1. (A tad charitable on the push, but the line moved from 3.5 to 3 on CAR/CHI).

Week 3 - Record: 1-2.

Week 4 - Record: 4-3.

Week 5 - Record: 4-2.

Week 6 - Record: 2-3.

Week 7 - Record: 5-8.

Week 8 - Record: 4-5.

Week 9 - Record: 7-3.

Week 10 - Record: 7-3.

Week 11 - Record: 6-4.

Week 12 - Record: 4-4.

Week 13 - Part 1 - Record: 1-0.

Overall: 49-40-1.
Mr. Pasquino, I think you're sleeping on the Falcons. Just putting it out there. Put your savings on that game and thank me later.
 
Mr. Pasquino, I think you're sleeping on the Falcons. Just putting it out there. Put your savings on that game and thank me later.
You know, I have to admit - I totally missed commenting on that game.I had it pegged at SD -2.5 before I checked the line, and ATL getting 5 is pretty tempting - so much in fact I may add it (But a late addition can't be more than a "1" right now, wouldn't trust it more).Sell me on the ATL side from your perspective please.
 
Mr. Pasquino, I think you're sleeping on the Falcons. Just putting it out there. Put your savings on that game and thank me later.
You know, I have to admit - I totally missed commenting on that game.I had it pegged at SD -2.5 before I checked the line, and ATL getting 5 is pretty tempting - so much in fact I may add it (But a late addition can't be more than a "1" right now, wouldn't trust it more).Sell me on the ATL side from your perspective please.
San Diego is terrible...terrible against the pass, relatively weak against the rush and the Falcons are right at the top for rushing teams. The Falcons are hot right now. Both teams have weak defenses. This game should go over. San Diego is terrible.
 
Mr. Pasquino, I think you're sleeping on the Falcons. Just putting it out there. Put your savings on that game and thank me later.
You know, I have to admit - I totally missed commenting on that game.I had it pegged at SD -2.5 before I checked the line, and ATL getting 5 is pretty tempting - so much in fact I may add it (But a late addition can't be more than a "1" right now, wouldn't trust it more).Sell me on the ATL side from your perspective please.
San Diego is terrible...terrible against the pass, relatively weak against the rush and the Falcons are right at the top for rushing teams. The Falcons are hot right now. Both teams have weak defenses. This game should go over. San Diego is terrible.
What the heck - I'm feeling lucky (oh boy, kiss of death....) - I'll throw Atlanta +5 for 1 star in the mix.Good luck and thanks for that heads up. :thumbup:
 
Wow, sensational job. I hope you won some good cash. I went 10-4 on the week and won a whopping $10 because all four of my losers were my biggest bets (ugh).

So who do you like tonight? :thumpup:

 
Wow, sensational job. I hope you won some good cash. I went 10-4 on the week and won a whopping $10 because all four of my losers were my biggest bets (ugh).So who do you like tonight? :thumpup:
I don't like either side, that's why it's not here.It's a total coinflip. I can see Jacksonville winning - but my gut says the Texans win.I'd stay away from this play.
 
Wow, sensational job. I hope you won some good cash. I went 10-4 on the week and won a whopping $10 because all four of my losers were my biggest bets (ugh).So who do you like tonight? :thumpup:
I don't like either side, that's why it's not here.It's a total coinflip. I can see Jacksonville winning - but my gut says the Texans win.I'd stay away from this play.
Late gut call (not starring it by any means) - Houston wins by 7 or more. Too many offensive studs for those that know the Texans - AJ, Slaton, KWalter, OD - and Adibi, DeMeco and company make a name for themselves.Houston 30, Jax 20.
 
Wow, sensational job. I hope you won some good cash. I went 10-4 on the week and won a whopping $10 because all four of my losers were my biggest bets (ugh).So who do you like tonight? :thumpup:
I don't like either side, that's why it's not here.It's a total coinflip. I can see Jacksonville winning - but my gut says the Texans win.I'd stay away from this play.
Late gut call (not starring it by any means) - Houston wins by 7 or more. Too many offensive studs for those that know the Texans - AJ, Slaton, KWalter, OD - and Adibi, DeMeco and company make a name for themselves.Houston 30, Jax 20.
Wow. Shoulda counted it ;) .
 

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