Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
First of all, take these all with a grain of salt.
Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.
Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.
My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.
Week 134 was a huge week, to say the least. Part 1 was a nice 1-0 start, but the Thanksgiving feast came on Sunday, where I was undefeated at 10-0-1, with just the Colts' push as a slight blemish. A +10 week is still nothing to sneeze at. Will it continue? Can I keep up this great streak? Let's find out.
This week I'm putting 16 stars on the line, probably the most all year, including two 2-star and two 3-star picks. Here we go:
*ONE STAR GAMES*
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) at Carolina Panthers - (1 star)
I'm bucking the trend here of the NFC South consistently winning this season (the division is 8-0 for the home team this year). I'm not calling for the win really here (I'll take 24-23 Carolina just fine, thanks) but here's two reasons why to like Tampa Bay. First, Carolina is doing it all with run offense. Four touchdowns on the ground for DeAngelo Williams and one for Delhomme - zero through the air. In fact, Delhomme has only 3 TD passes in the past four weeks. Second - Tampa has given up ONE rushing touchdown this year. I'm not saying that Carolina can't compete and that Steve Smith isn't doing what he always does - but he's isn't finding the end zone. I like Tampa Bay to keep this game very, very close and have a 45-55% chance of winning - which means take the points.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (Over 38) - (1 star)
Yeah, about those defensive comments above.... both teams should reach 20 points. Garcia is doing just fine and the Panthers are putting points on the board. Both teams will want to play their best on the prime time slate, and as always for over picks you should like both kickers. Bryant is Top 5 in scoring and Kasay has 100 points and is 95% on field goals for the season, which means go with the over.
Washington Redskins at Baltimore Ravens (Over 35) - (1 star)
This one is almost too easy, and I nearly made it two stars. Is anyone paying attention to Baltimore this year? Anyone? Forget that we have better odds of watching the Lions win on Thanksgiving than ther right Raven runningback to put into a fantasy lineup - the Ravens are putting up lots of points right now. Over the past seven games, Baltimore has scored 27, 29, 37, 41, 10, 36, and 34 points - and the 10 was against the Giants. That's over 30 a game even with the 10 against New York. Impressive. Washington? Not so much. They haven't topped 20 points since Week 8 against Detroit, and their recent list of victories is much less impressive. Clinton Portis has more bruises than a week old banana and won't put up much of a fight against a hungry Baltimore team that is yearning for respect and attention. After they pummel the Redskins 34-13, they'll get it. Only the possibility of the Ravens winning by slightly smaller totals (27-6 or so) keeps me from raising this one.
Minnesota Vikings (-7.5 to 10) at Detroit Lions - (1 star)
As soon as the news broke that the "Williams Wall" would be playing, this line is rising faster than the number of Bengals tickets on Stubhub. Normally I try and wait to post these picks as I get more information on injuries throughout the week, but I did mention in the Williams Wall thread that people should jump on 7.5 or 8 if they could get it. It's up to 10 now, so I'll have to take 10 if I want to play - and I will. Minnesota rolls 31-13 as ADP scores twice along with Chester Taylor and Vishante Shiancoe. Calvin somehow scores and Hanson adds two field goals, but it won't be close. Lay 10 or 11 against Detroit - but as always, take the lowest number you can get.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (Under 46.5) - (1 star)
See above - unless Kevin Smith gets into the end zone, I don't know how Detroit gets two touchdowns. That caps their scoring into the 13-16 range, so only Minnesota scoring over 31 makes me worried. It can happen though, so hold this one down to just one star.
Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers (Under 48) - (1 star)
Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow..... The Texans will travel to Wisconsin for some lovely winter weather in Lambeau. Houston just put up a good number of points on Monday night against Jacksonville, but here is a short work week with a QB change (back to Schaub) against one of the best secondaries in the league. Slaton's actually played in cold weather from his Mountaineer days, but Green Bay is ready for the arctic conditions. The weather can only help keep the score down. I don't see the winner of this one needing more than 24 points.
**TWO STAR GAMES**
Miami Dolphins (+1.5) at Buffalo Bills - (2 stars)
This really isn't fair - for Buffalo. They technically are the home team, but the game is in TORONTO, not Buffalo. That's only about a 90 minute trip north, but the key factor is not just the loss of a home crowd but the fact that the game will be in a dome. That's right, Miami travels to a dome in December instead of outside in Buffalo. You getting this pick now? The Dolphins are doing very well as of late and Buffalo isn't. They did yank Trent Edwards, so Lee Evans may get deep now and then, but it won't be enough. Miami wins this game outright.
Washington Redskins at Baltimore Ravens (-5) - (2 stars)
You saw this one coming I think. I mentioned it all above, and Joe Flacco will show a national audience why he should get some love in Rookie of the Year considerations. Baltimore wins big as they try and keep pace in the AFC North.
***THREE STAR GAMES***
Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) - (3 stars)
Speaking of the AFC North, there's a certain team that is playing a horrific schedule as if they were in the WAC instead of the NFL. Now the Steelers host the Cowboys for the first time in over a decade, and the Cowboys are not what everyone thinks that they should be. Yes their defense is playing well - against weaker competition. The offense isn't exactly steamrolling anyone of note, and Pittsburgh has the best defense in many, many seasons. So now Marion Barber may not play? Even if he did he likely wouldn't see 100 yards and possibly not even the end zone. The field and the weather may turn bad which might help Dallas keep it closer than it should be, but Pittsburgh should dominate the lines of scrimmage and win by at least 10. In good conditions I'd have it 31-17 Dallas without MB3, 31-20 or 24 with him. In bad weather (likely), 24-10 seems about right.
New England Patriots (-4.5 to 6.5, moving to 7 quickly) at Seattle Seahawks - (3 stars)
Run, don't walk, to get in on this one before it hits seven, even though I wouldn't worry even at that number. Hasselbeck is likely out, and I bet 52 of his teammates wish that they could join him. Matt Cassel will rebound and dominate a very bad Seahawk team that is hobbling to the end of the year. Only John Carlson is a ray of hope right now as there's not much redeeming value on either side of the ball. New England will jump out early in this one and cruise to a 20-point victory, 30-10 on the road as they start their cruise to the playoffs. There's no way I see New England scoring under 20 points and with Seneca Wallace leading the Seahawks, they'll be lucky to get 13.
Good luck this week, and remember that if you are tempting fate and actually wagering on these games to bet with your head and not over it.
Enjoy the games.
Lastly, the record:
Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.
Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.
My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.
Week 134 was a huge week, to say the least. Part 1 was a nice 1-0 start, but the Thanksgiving feast came on Sunday, where I was undefeated at 10-0-1, with just the Colts' push as a slight blemish. A +10 week is still nothing to sneeze at. Will it continue? Can I keep up this great streak? Let's find out.
This week I'm putting 16 stars on the line, probably the most all year, including two 2-star and two 3-star picks. Here we go:
*ONE STAR GAMES*
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) at Carolina Panthers - (1 star)
I'm bucking the trend here of the NFC South consistently winning this season (the division is 8-0 for the home team this year). I'm not calling for the win really here (I'll take 24-23 Carolina just fine, thanks) but here's two reasons why to like Tampa Bay. First, Carolina is doing it all with run offense. Four touchdowns on the ground for DeAngelo Williams and one for Delhomme - zero through the air. In fact, Delhomme has only 3 TD passes in the past four weeks. Second - Tampa has given up ONE rushing touchdown this year. I'm not saying that Carolina can't compete and that Steve Smith isn't doing what he always does - but he's isn't finding the end zone. I like Tampa Bay to keep this game very, very close and have a 45-55% chance of winning - which means take the points.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (Over 38) - (1 star)
Yeah, about those defensive comments above.... both teams should reach 20 points. Garcia is doing just fine and the Panthers are putting points on the board. Both teams will want to play their best on the prime time slate, and as always for over picks you should like both kickers. Bryant is Top 5 in scoring and Kasay has 100 points and is 95% on field goals for the season, which means go with the over.
Washington Redskins at Baltimore Ravens (Over 35) - (1 star)
This one is almost too easy, and I nearly made it two stars. Is anyone paying attention to Baltimore this year? Anyone? Forget that we have better odds of watching the Lions win on Thanksgiving than ther right Raven runningback to put into a fantasy lineup - the Ravens are putting up lots of points right now. Over the past seven games, Baltimore has scored 27, 29, 37, 41, 10, 36, and 34 points - and the 10 was against the Giants. That's over 30 a game even with the 10 against New York. Impressive. Washington? Not so much. They haven't topped 20 points since Week 8 against Detroit, and their recent list of victories is much less impressive. Clinton Portis has more bruises than a week old banana and won't put up much of a fight against a hungry Baltimore team that is yearning for respect and attention. After they pummel the Redskins 34-13, they'll get it. Only the possibility of the Ravens winning by slightly smaller totals (27-6 or so) keeps me from raising this one.
Minnesota Vikings (-7.5 to 10) at Detroit Lions - (1 star)
As soon as the news broke that the "Williams Wall" would be playing, this line is rising faster than the number of Bengals tickets on Stubhub. Normally I try and wait to post these picks as I get more information on injuries throughout the week, but I did mention in the Williams Wall thread that people should jump on 7.5 or 8 if they could get it. It's up to 10 now, so I'll have to take 10 if I want to play - and I will. Minnesota rolls 31-13 as ADP scores twice along with Chester Taylor and Vishante Shiancoe. Calvin somehow scores and Hanson adds two field goals, but it won't be close. Lay 10 or 11 against Detroit - but as always, take the lowest number you can get.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (Under 46.5) - (1 star)
See above - unless Kevin Smith gets into the end zone, I don't know how Detroit gets two touchdowns. That caps their scoring into the 13-16 range, so only Minnesota scoring over 31 makes me worried. It can happen though, so hold this one down to just one star.
Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers (Under 48) - (1 star)
Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow..... The Texans will travel to Wisconsin for some lovely winter weather in Lambeau. Houston just put up a good number of points on Monday night against Jacksonville, but here is a short work week with a QB change (back to Schaub) against one of the best secondaries in the league. Slaton's actually played in cold weather from his Mountaineer days, but Green Bay is ready for the arctic conditions. The weather can only help keep the score down. I don't see the winner of this one needing more than 24 points.
**TWO STAR GAMES**
Miami Dolphins (+1.5) at Buffalo Bills - (2 stars)
This really isn't fair - for Buffalo. They technically are the home team, but the game is in TORONTO, not Buffalo. That's only about a 90 minute trip north, but the key factor is not just the loss of a home crowd but the fact that the game will be in a dome. That's right, Miami travels to a dome in December instead of outside in Buffalo. You getting this pick now? The Dolphins are doing very well as of late and Buffalo isn't. They did yank Trent Edwards, so Lee Evans may get deep now and then, but it won't be enough. Miami wins this game outright.
Washington Redskins at Baltimore Ravens (-5) - (2 stars)
You saw this one coming I think. I mentioned it all above, and Joe Flacco will show a national audience why he should get some love in Rookie of the Year considerations. Baltimore wins big as they try and keep pace in the AFC North.
***THREE STAR GAMES***
Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) - (3 stars)
Speaking of the AFC North, there's a certain team that is playing a horrific schedule as if they were in the WAC instead of the NFL. Now the Steelers host the Cowboys for the first time in over a decade, and the Cowboys are not what everyone thinks that they should be. Yes their defense is playing well - against weaker competition. The offense isn't exactly steamrolling anyone of note, and Pittsburgh has the best defense in many, many seasons. So now Marion Barber may not play? Even if he did he likely wouldn't see 100 yards and possibly not even the end zone. The field and the weather may turn bad which might help Dallas keep it closer than it should be, but Pittsburgh should dominate the lines of scrimmage and win by at least 10. In good conditions I'd have it 31-17 Dallas without MB3, 31-20 or 24 with him. In bad weather (likely), 24-10 seems about right.
New England Patriots (-4.5 to 6.5, moving to 7 quickly) at Seattle Seahawks - (3 stars)
Run, don't walk, to get in on this one before it hits seven, even though I wouldn't worry even at that number. Hasselbeck is likely out, and I bet 52 of his teammates wish that they could join him. Matt Cassel will rebound and dominate a very bad Seahawk team that is hobbling to the end of the year. Only John Carlson is a ray of hope right now as there's not much redeeming value on either side of the ball. New England will jump out early in this one and cruise to a 20-point victory, 30-10 on the road as they start their cruise to the playoffs. There's no way I see New England scoring under 20 points and with Seneca Wallace leading the Seahawks, they'll be lucky to get 13.
Good luck this week, and remember that if you are tempting fate and actually wagering on these games to bet with your head and not over it.
Enjoy the games.
Lastly, the record:
Week 1 - Didn't post a thread.
Week 2 - Record:4-3-1. (A tad charitable on the push, but the line moved from 3.5 to 3 on CAR/CHI).
Week 3 - Record: 1-2.
Week 4 - Record: 4-3.
Week 5 - Record: 4-2.
Week 6 - Record: 2-3.
Week 7 - Record: 5-8.
Week 8 - Record: 4-5.
Week 9 - Record: 7-3.
Week 10 - Record: 7-3.
Week 11 - Record: 6-4.
Week 12 - Record: 4-4.
Week 13 - Part 1 - Record: 1-0.
Week 13 - Part 2 - Record: 10-0-1.
Overall: 59-40-2.
Last edited by a moderator:
At least you got your 100-star play of the year. 
Now, teasing that with the over.......
Really don't care about the outcome tonight so much as I want to see a good game, but if I had my choice I'd take Tampa Bay in a narrow one, 24-23.
Really don't care about the outcome tonight so much as I want to see a good game, but if I had my choice I'd take Tampa Bay in a narrow one, 24-23.
Really don't care about the outcome tonight so much as I want to see a good game, but if I had my choice I'd take Tampa Bay in a narrow one, 24-23.
Really don't care about the outcome tonight so much as I want to see a good game, but if I had my choice I'd take Tampa Bay in a narrow one, 24-23.
Really don't care about the outcome tonight so much as I want to see a good game, but if I had my choice I'd take Tampa Bay in a narrow one, 24-23.
Really don't care about the outcome tonight so much as I want to see a good game, but if I had my choice I'd take Tampa Bay in a narrow one, 24-23.
