Week 2 garbage time - huge spreads in 5 games (1 Viewer)

[BobbyLayne]

How do we feel about games in which the betting line indicates the team may be down by more than one score?

Falcons (+10.5) at Rams

London, Pitts, Patterson

Seahawks (+8.5) at 49ers

Metcalf, Lockett, Penny

Texans (+10) at Broncos

Cooks, Burkhead, Pierce

Titans (+10) at Bills

Burks, Phillips, Woods, Henry

Bears (+10) at Packers

Mooney, Kmet (lol), Monty, Herbert

That’s a lot of predicted blowouts.

 

[IHEARTFF]

this is a good topic. minor nitpick is that you have the (-points) on the wrong side of these games
this might help me choose Lockett over Landry

 

[FreeBaGeL]

this is a good topic. minor nitpick is that you have the (-points) on the wrong side of these games
this might help me choose Lockett over Landry

I was about to bet the house on some of these when I first saw them, lol.

 

[Saint]

Titans (-10) at Bills

Henry

I would add in Woods, Burks, and Phillips to this list.

 

[BobbyLayne]

this is a good topic. minor nitpick is that you have the (-points) on the wrong side of these games
this might help me choose Lockett over Landry

Have I mentioned I don’t gamble?

Will edit, thank you

 

[FairWarning]

Looking at it a different way - if you really like the dogs here, RB and defenses are sneaky good plays, as they control tempo. In the original scenario from the OP, a player I like and will play in some some DK lineups is Mariotta. He had 72 yards rushing last week, and there could be some big garbage time.

 

[HW_53]

I think the Bears/Packers game could be closer than expected. I could see the Bears trying to control the tempo here with Monty/Herbert and letting their defense play. That being said, Vegas is rarely off.

 

[cdclopper]

These are some outrageous spreads, no?

 

[Leroy Hoard]

These are some outrageous spreads, no?

Yes, they are just giving away money this week. Sometimes you wonder how the heck they make any money.

 

[FairWarning]

I think the Bears/Packers game could be closer than expected. I could see the Bears trying to control the tempo here with Monty/Herbert and letting their defense play. That being said, Vegas is rarely off.

They are off at the beginning of the season for sure. That goes for all sports.

 

[eighsse2]

Don't forget primary RB's on the favorite side.

 

[Chaka]

These aren't games that are likely to be blowouts, they're games Vegas knows the public thinks will be blowouts.

 

[da_budman]

You also have to remember that Vegas is also pretty good at over/under too though....so for example the GB/CHI game o/u is 41 points..... so take away the 10 point spread that leaves 31 points .....so they expect the score to be something like 26-15.....or 25-16......... 15 or 16 points scored doesnt leave a bunch of garbage time FF points scored.

 

[TampaMike19]

Over unders and implied points are basically all that matters. Relying on garbage time is not a good strategy. The team that is down a ton will have less play volume due to anemic offenses. Can’t convert third downs, can’t stop good offenses, good offenses continue to run the ball. If you think someone’s implied total is too low, that’s where fantasy value is to be had

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Vegas came close tonight. Line of -4/52 total. Came out 27-24.

 

[titusbramble]

I wouldn't start calling something a huge spread until someone's a two touchdown favourite

 

[jabarony]

Titans (-10) at Bills

Henry

I would add in Woods, Burks, and Phillips to this list.

Woods is on my bench until he has even a mediocre game. Last week was rough.