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***Week 2 Picks*** (1 Viewer)

Jeff Pasquino

Footballguy
First of all, take these all with a grain of salt.

Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.

Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.

My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.



Anyhow, these will be brief as there are just four games to discuss this week.

Here we go:



*ONE STAR GAMES*

Carolina Panthers (-3.5) vs. Chicago Bears - (1 star)

I'm not fooled by the Bears' performance last week. Sure they beat the Colts, but Peyton was a shadow of himself and Addai got a boo-boo and took himself out (that should surprise no one). Yes the Bears defense was better than expected, but the Colts made them look better than they are. Carolina's 1-2 punch at RB with DeAngelo and Stewart will be much stronger, and Jake Delhomme is way underrated.

As for the Bears offense, Matt Forte is nowhere near Tomlinson, but then again who is? The Panthers' defense wasn't even as strong as they could have been as Julius Peppers didn't get on track last week in San Diego. Carolina gave up 3 TDs to Philip Rivers, which is an embarrassment to say the least, but Kyle Orton is a good antidote for any secondary.

Panthers by at least a TD.

Philadelphia Eagles (+7) at Dallas Cowboys - (1 star)

I really don't want to touch this game or pick it, as I am a long time Eagles fan and this game is HUGE, even for Week 2. But you can't dismiss this game with Philly getting a touchdown. Yes it is on the road. Yes the Cowboys crushed Cleveland. I also get that the Rams stink and the 38-3 drubbing shouldn't sway me. But this is Cowboys-Eagles, and the games are always close. I'm also banking that there's more love for Dallas right now than for Philly and that's influencing the line. That makes me believe that this game is more like a pick-em game on a neutral site, so the Cowboys should be favored but more like a field goal than a touchdown.

Both teams have a good shot to win this one, so give me the team getting 7 points.

**TWO STAR GAMES**

None. Sorry. Move along.

***THREE STAR GAMES***

Buffalo Bills (+5.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars - (3 stars)

Did I miss something? Jacksonville struggled greatly against the Titans - the TITANS. Tennessee did make the playoffs, but the Jags were in the postseason too and are a perennial 10+ win team. Jacksonville should have won that game and yet they didn't. That's telling right there. Fred Taylor and MJD couldn't get anything going and their offensive line is now a trainwreck. Oh, and Matt Jones is starting. Do I need to say more?

Buffalo is getting no respect for what they are putting together in upstate New York. A solid ground game with Marshawn Lynch, a good QB in Trent Edwards, and fantastic defensive and special teams units. I've seen this recipe before, and the Ravens won a Super Bowl with these ingredients. That's way too early to call, but the door is wide open in the AFC East and the Bills are hungry.

The game opened as a 7-point spread and is already heading to five. Follow the money. Give me Buffalo and the points in a big way, and I won't be surprised at all for them to win this one.

New Orleans Saints (Pick) at Washington Redskins - (3 stars)

See below.

:thumbdown: of the Week - New Orleans at Washington. For more on this one, check out my new column, Hot Reads.





Remember, if you are playing these games, bet with your head and not over it.

Enjoy the games.

 
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Jeff Pasquino said:
First of all, take these all with a grain of salt.

Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.

Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.

My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.



Anyhow, these will be brief as there are just four games to discuss this week.

Here we go:



*ONE STAR GAMES*

Carolina Panthers (-3.5) vs. Chicago Bears - (1 star)

I'm not fooled by the Bears' performance last week. Sure they beat the Colts, but Peyton was a shadow of himself and Addai got a boo-boo and took himself out (that should surprise no one). Yes the Bears defense was better than expected, but the Colts made them look better than they are. Carolina's 1-2 punch at RB with DeAngelo and Stewart will be much stronger, and Jake Delhomme is way underrated.

As for the Bears offense, Matt Forte is nowhere near Tomlinson, but then again who is? The Panthers' defense wasn't even as strong as they could have been as Julius Peppers didn't get on track last week in San Diego. Carolina gave up 3 TDs to Philip Rivers, which is an embarrassment to say the least, but Kyle Orton is a good antidote for any secondary.

Panthers by at least a TD.

Philadelphia Eagles (+7) at Dallas Cowboys - (1 star)

I really don't want to touch this game or pick it, as I am a long time Eagles fan and this game is HUGE, even for Week 2. But you can't dismiss this game with Philly getting a touchdown. Yes it is on the road. Yes the Cowboys crushed Cleveland. I also get that the Rams stink and the 38-3 drubbing shouldn't sway me. But this is Cowboys-Eagles, and the games are always close. I'm also banking that there's more love for Dallas right now than for Philly and that's influencing the line. That makes me believe that this game is more like a pick-em game on a neutral site, so the Cowboys should be favored but more like a field goal than a touchdown.

Both teams have a good shot to win this one, so give me the team getting 7 points.

**TWO STAR GAMES**

None. Sorry. Move along.

***THREE STAR GAMES***

Buffalo Bills (+5.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars - (3 stars)

Did I miss something? Jacksonville struggled greatly against the Titans - the TITANS. Tennessee did make the playoffs, but the Jags were in the postseason too and are a perennial 10+ win team. Jacksonville should have won that game and yet they didn't. That's telling right there. Fred Taylor and MJD couldn't get anything going and their offensive line is now a trainwreck. Oh, and Matt Jones is starting. Do I need to say more?

Buffalo is getting no respect for what they are putting together in upstate New York. A solid ground game with Marshawn Lynch, a good QB in Trent Edwards, and fantastic defensive and special teams units. I've seen this recipe before, and the Ravens won a Super Bowl with these ingredients. That's way too early to call, but the door is wide open in the AFC East and the Bills are hungry.

The game opened as a 7-point spread and is already heading to five. Follow the money. Give me Buffalo and the points in a big way, and I won't be surprised at all for them to win this one.

New Orleans Saints (Pick) at Washington Redskins - (3 stars)

See below.

:IBTL: of the Week - New Orleans at Washington. For more on this one, check out my new column, Hot Reads.





Remember, if you are playing these games, bet with your head and not over it.

Enjoy the games.
Thanks for posting this Jeff.I love GB and I also like Carolina and Tennessee.

 
Love Carolina, Buffalo and the Saints

Would lay off Phil

Just my two cents...

Nice analysis...

Also like New England as a dog....

 
Glad to see you're doing these again this year. I like all the picks. New Orleans on the road is not the same team as at home, but they should still be able to handle Washington, you'd think.

I also like NE, who should play with a chip on their shoulder, as well as Denver at home.

 
I've never gambled on an NFL game, and I suspect I never will.

Having said that, Buffalo will beat Jacksonville by 13 points at least. It's stunning to see them a 5.5 point dog.

I'm not willing to write off the Redskins yet. If the Saints make them look bad, I'll be ready. The Saints have 3 defensive starters out. Zorn better win this game, or at least get Portis a TD and Campell 2 TDs.

 
I've never gambled on an NFL game, and I suspect I never will.Having said that, Buffalo will beat Jacksonville by 13 points at least. It's stunning to see them a 5.5 point dog.
That is a little overboard. The Bills still have to score. I love them against the spread, and on the money line they are a decent play. I suspect one thing driving up the spread is that Edwards is nearly a rookie QB and is on the road. Also, while Jax struggled mightily on the road with their banged up line, they should get some repreive being at home, where the home crowd is easier on the Oline. That said, the Bills with points are a good play.
 
First of all, take these all with a grain of salt. Secondly, these are for educational purposes only. Remember, if you are playing these games, bet with your head and not over it.
Which is it? Take it with a grain of salt or use it for gambling purposes?
 
I have no idea where the week 2 plays thread went to - I know Wick had one for week 1.

Anyhow, I went 3-0 yesterday on Oak +3.5, Chi +3.5 and Ten +1

If you signed up for my e-mails you would have gotten them, or if you went to my website.

I'll try to post them here each week, but my time is limited and again, I didn't see the weekly thread. Is Jeff's thread going to be the weekly thread or who is starting the thread on a weekly basis?

 
I have no idea where the week 2 plays thread went to - I know Wick had one for week 1.

Anyhow, I went 3-0 yesterday on Oak +3.5, Chi +3.5 and Ten +1

If you signed up for my e-mails you would have gotten them, or if you went to my website.

I'll try to post them here each week, but my time is limited and again, I didn't see the weekly thread. Is Jeff's thread going to be the weekly thread or who is starting the thread on a weekly basis?
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=420001got the emails also...thanks :shrug:

 
I've never gambled on an NFL game, and I suspect I never will.Having said that, Buffalo will beat Jacksonville by 13 points at least. It's stunning to see them a 5.5 point dog.
That is a little overboard. The Bills still have to score. I love them against the spread, and on the money line they are a decent play. I suspect one thing driving up the spread is that Edwards is nearly a rookie QB and is on the road. Also, while Jax struggled mightily on the road with their banged up line, they should get some repreive being at home, where the home crowd is easier on the Oline. That said, the Bills with points are a good play.
This is why I don't gamble.Not only Garrard but also MJD and Taylor MADE plays in this game. Outstanding effort by them and defense held up.Also going to give credit to the coaching staff for the onside kick and general good play.Another conclusion is that Edwards is not respected to throw the deep ball. This is a problem for Buffalo.
 
I hadn't been posting in here but week one I went 1-1 and week 2 finished with 2-0-1 going with Buff, SF, and Carolina. I maintain same bet on every game. Money management is the key to making money. So for 2 weeks I am 3-1-1.

Tonight I really like the Under 47'. Both teams looked good last week and so the squares are pushing the over. I have had a lot of luck going against the grain on Monday night games and so I like the low low.

 
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Jeff:

I'm not sure what your NFL wagering background is, and I don't mean to question you, but what would be the rationale behind making the Saints, a team favored by over 70% of the public this past weekend (according to data readily available on the internet) your lock of the week/year? That assumes that the average gambler out there knows more than the oddsmakers do about the NFL.

If the public loves one side, you've gotta ask yourself what Vegas was thinking when it set the line before putting your money down. If the public loves one side and Vegas still refuses to budge on the line (or barely moves it), you don't ask. You just side with the house and thank them for their kindness.

 
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I hadn't been posting in here but week one I went 1-1 and week 2 finished with 2-0-1 going with Buff, SF, and Carolina. I maintain same bet on every game. Money management is the key to making money. So for 2 weeks I am 3-1-1.Tonight I really like the Under 47'. Both teams looked good last week and so the squares are pushing the over. I have had a lot of luck going against the grain on Monday night games and so I like the low low.
You are going to wait to bet it, right?
 
Jeff:I'm not sure what your NFL wagering background is, and I don't mean to question you, but what would be the rationale behind making the Saints, a team favored by over 70% of the public this past weekend (according to data readily available on the internet) your lock of the week/year? That assumes that the average gambler out there knows more than the oddsmakers do about the NFL. If the public loves one side, you've gotta ask yourself what Vegas was thinking when it set the line before putting your money down. If the public loves one side and Vegas still refuses to budge on the line (or barely moves it), you don't ask. You just side with the house and thank them for their kindness.
This is incredibly good advice.It would have been even better if you had posted it before the game, but the advice is still sound.
 
Jeff:I'm not sure what your NFL wagering background is, and I don't mean to question you, but what would be the rationale behind making the Saints, a team favored by over 70% of the public this past weekend (according to data readily available on the internet) your lock of the week/year? That assumes that the average gambler out there knows more than the oddsmakers do about the NFL. If the public loves one side, you've gotta ask yourself what Vegas was thinking when it set the line before putting your money down. If the public loves one side and Vegas still refuses to budge on the line (or barely moves it), you don't ask. You just side with the house and thank them for their kindness.
This is incredibly good advice.It would have been even better if you had posted it before the game, but the advice is still sound.
I agree that this is good advice.The line caught my eye on Tuesday when it first came out (it was probably out Monday, actually, but I saw it Tues) and it screamed like a bad line.I guess this goes down as one of those "Vegas had better info" lines. They clearly knew about Colston and the secondary hurting well in advance.Regardless though, the Saints should have won - but you could say that about a number of teams this past Sunday. The Redskins aren't that good, but the weakened Saints made them feel better about themselves for another week. I still have Washington in last place in the NFC East by a good margin.
 
Jeff:I'm not sure what your NFL wagering background is, and I don't mean to question you, but what would be the rationale behind making the Saints, a team favored by over 70% of the public this past weekend (according to data readily available on the internet) your lock of the week/year? That assumes that the average gambler out there knows more than the oddsmakers do about the NFL. If the public loves one side, you've gotta ask yourself what Vegas was thinking when it set the line before putting your money down. If the public loves one side and Vegas still refuses to budge on the line (or barely moves it), you don't ask. You just side with the house and thank them for their kindness.
What did the square public think for the TEN @ CIN game? What site are you using for this data? Thanks
 
Jeff:I'm not sure what your NFL wagering background is, and I don't mean to question you, but what would be the rationale behind making the Saints, a team favored by over 70% of the public this past weekend (according to data readily available on the internet) your lock of the week/year? That assumes that the average gambler out there knows more than the oddsmakers do about the NFL. If the public loves one side, you've gotta ask yourself what Vegas was thinking when it set the line before putting your money down. If the public loves one side and Vegas still refuses to budge on the line (or barely moves it), you don't ask. You just side with the house and thank them for their kindness.
This is incredibly good advice.It would have been even better if you had posted it before the game, but the advice is still sound.
I agree that this is good advice.The line caught my eye on Tuesday when it first came out (it was probably out Monday, actually, but I saw it Tues) and it screamed like a bad line.I guess this goes down as one of those "Vegas had better info" lines. They clearly knew about Colston and the secondary hurting well in advance.Regardless though, the Saints should have won - but you could say that about a number of teams this past Sunday. The Redskins aren't that good, but the weakened Saints made them feel better about themselves for another week. I still have Washington in last place in the NFC East by a good margin.
:goodposting:
 

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