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***Week 4 Picks*** (1 Viewer)

Jeff Pasquino

Footballguy
First of all, take these all with a grain of salt.

Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.

Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.

My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.



Week 4 - Still not really (A) "feeling it" just yet and (B) not liking the choices. I do like one game this week as for picking vs. the spread, so I will share that one. Other than that, I'm all about the Over/Under.... Let's talk.

Here we go:



*ONE STAR GAMES* Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Chicago Bears - (1 star)

Westbrook will be out, pretty much count on it. What you can also count on is that Donovan McNabb will play. Why? Chicago is his home town, and Momma McNabb will be cooking for the team as she always does when they visit the Windy City. I'm drinking the Campbell's soup here.

As for the reasons to like Philly on the field? Westbrook is out but Correll Buckhalter is a solid NFL backup. Yes he's less explosive, but he's capable. Add in Lorenzo Booker, whom I expect got some specific plays in practice this week, and you have your backfield. At wideout it will be DeSean and Baskett making catches, and Reggie Brown may even be seen. No truth to the rumor that he will be wearing "WALDO" on the back of his jersey.

Another name that's a sleeper of a TE for the week - Brent Celek will start and see at least four targets this week, especially near the end zone. I don't expect a scoring fest, as you saw what the Eagles' defense did to a pretty good Steelers team last week. Oh yeah, the Bears have some defense too. What they may not have is Devin Hester, who also by the way had ZERO return yards the last time these two played. The Eagles kicked away or out of bounds from him, so even if he plays he'll be minimized. Don't expect a ton of sacks from the Eagles as Orton is quicker to move and throw than Big Ben, but Philly should keep the NFC East's record perfect out of the division.



Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans (UNDER 36.5) - (1 star)

I really don't like unders. Why? Because you never rest easy for all 60 minutes. With an "OVER" you can be done as soon as that scoreboard lights up enough and call it a day - but not so with an Under. Sweat city, here we come. That's why I usually don't recommend them, but it's hard to deny the truth in this game - both offenses are not that good, and both defenses are. That's pretty simple, isn't it? Tennessee is playing out of their minds on defense, and the Vikes aren't far behind. The only way I see this one going to 20 points on either side is if the defense scores. I am willing to take that chance here and say this will be around 17-13.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (UNDER 36) - (1 star)

My earlier comments still apply, and before you jump on me for the line, it opened at 36 and has dropped with uncertainty on Big Ben and McGahee. If the number creeps up over 35, I'd consider it "in play". I still hope for 36 or more, but I'd take 35.5 and be quite happy.

What I just said about unders still applies, but these offenses also aren't so hot. Flacco is 2-0 with zero TD passes. Awesome. Big Ben is about 2" shorter this week thanks to Philly, and the offensive line is still just as bad this week as last week. The Ravens are all about defense again - just like that magical SB XXXV year, but don't get ahead of yourself, Baltimore - the season is a long one. That said, they know that running the ball 40+ times and keeping mistakes down is the way to win this year. Baltimore could easily step into Pittsburgh and come out 3-0 and 3-0 in the division. Look out, people - Baltimore may be going to the postseason from this division.

Pittsburgh's offense will struggle as FWP is out and Mendendroptheball is in for the Steelers this week. That's exactly what you need, a fumbler against Baltimore. Look for the Baltimore offense (also known as Matt Stover) to hit 3 FGs and Baltimore steals one, 20-13.

**TWO STAR GAMES**

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (OVER 46.5) - (2 stars)

Yay, some scoring! Denver is averaging about 50 million points a week and are giving up almost as much. The Chiefs have a decent defense, but let's be real for a minute here - they've played a Brady-less Pats team, Oakland and Atlanta. I think the Broncos are easily the best offense so far that they will have seen. Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, and Tony Scheffler will light it up by air, and Selvin and company will hit the ground running. Four touchdowns or more seems more than plausible.

As for KC getting some points, Larry Johnson should be well over 100 yards against a bad run defense. Damon Huard is starting, so Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez may actually get targets that don't bounce twice on the way there for a change. Expect both of them to score along with LJ as both teams get three TDs before the fourth quarter.



San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (OVER 48) - (2 stars)

This one's similar to Denver / KC. Both teams can score and can't stop anyone, just like Denver. That's a movable object against an unstoppable force. Next stop - end zone. San Fran will run Gore all day long, and JT O'Sullivan will have another "how is he doing that?" kind of game. Speaking of which, Drew Brees will make points and passing yards appear out of thin air. He's been leading a prolific offense even without Marques Colston. The loss of Jeremy Shockey will hurt this week - until Reggie Bush lines up at TE too. Brees will find a way yet again to get some WRs involved. Lance Moore, Robert Meachem, or some guy who delivered the breakfast buffet may go deep and score. It really doesn't matter, each team will have 30 and the OVER will be done before the fourth quarter.

***THREE STAR GAMES***



None. Still not liking these games very much yet, but hey - we want to play, don't we?



Good luck this week, and remember that if you are tempting fate and actually wagering on these games to bet with your head and not over it.

Enjoy the games.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
In my experience, betting overs/unders are poor bets in pro football. The impact of unpredictable events on the over/under outcome is too great.

 
Jeff Pasquino said:
First of all, take these all with a grain of salt.

Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.

Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.

My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.



Week 4 - Still not really (A) "feeling it" just yet and (B) not liking the choices. I do like one game this week as for picking vs. the spread, so I will share that one. Other than that, I'm all about the Over/Under.... Let's talk.

Here we go:



*ONE STAR GAMES* Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Chicago Bears - (1 star)

Westbrook will be out, pretty much count on it. What you can also count on is that Donovan McNabb will play. Why? Chicago is his home town, and Momma McNabb will be cooking for the team as she always does when they visit the Windy City. I'm drinking the Campbell's soup here.

As for the reasons to like Philly on the field? Westbrook is out but Correll Buckhalter is a solid NFL backup. Yes he's less explosive, but he's capable. Add in Lorenzo Booker, whom I expect got some specific plays in practice this week, and you have your backfield. At wideout it will be DeSean and Baskett making catches, and Reggie Brown may even be seen. No truth to the rumor that he will be wearing "WALDO" on the back of his jersey.

Another name that's a sleeper of a TE for the week - Brent Celek will start and see at least four targets this week, especially near the end zone. I don't expect a scoring fest, as you saw what the Eagles' defense did to a pretty good Steelers team last week. Oh yeah, the Bears have some defense too. What they may not have is Devin Hester, who also by the way had ZERO return yards the last time these two played. The Eagles kicked away or out of bounds from him, so even if he plays he'll be minimized. Don't expect a ton of sacks from the Eagles as Orton is quicker to move and throw than Big Ben, but Philly should keep the NFC East's record perfect out of the division.



Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans (UNDER 36.5) - (1 star)

I really don't like unders. Why? Because you never rest easy for all 60 minutes. With an "OVER" you can be done as soon as that scoreboard lights up enough and call it a day - but not so with an Under. Sweat city, here we come. That's why I usually don't recommend them, but it's hard to deny the truth in this game - both offenses are not that good, and both defenses are. That's pretty simple, isn't it? Tennessee is playing out of their minds on defense, and the Vikes aren't far behind. The only way I see this one going to 20 points on either side is if the defense scores. I am willing to take that chance here and say this will be around 17-13.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (UNDER 36) - (1 star)

My earlier comments still apply, and before you jump on me for the line, it opened at 36 and has dropped with uncertainty on Big Ben and McGahee. If the number creeps up over 35, I'd consider it "in play". I still hope for 36 or more, but I'd take 35.5 and be quite happy.

What I just said about unders still applies, but these offenses also aren't so hot. Flacco is 2-0 with zero TD passes. Awesome. Big Ben is about 2" shorter this week thanks to Philly, and the offensive line is still just as bad this week as last week. The Ravens are all about defense again - just like that magical SB XXXV year, but don't get ahead of yourself, Baltimore - the season is a long one. That said, they know that running the ball 40+ times and keeping mistakes down is the way to win this year. Baltimore could easily step into Pittsburgh and come out 3-0 and 3-0 in the division. Look out, people - Baltimore may be going to the postseason from this division.

Pittsburgh's offense will struggle as FWP is out and Mendendroptheball is in for the Steelers this week. That's exactly what you need, a fumbler against Baltimore. Look for the Baltimore offense (also known as Matt Stover) to hit 3 FGs and Baltimore steals one, 20-13.

**TWO STAR GAMES**

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (OVER 46.5) - (2 stars)

Yay, some scoring! Denver is averaging about 50 million points a week and are giving up almost as much. The Chiefs have a decent defense, but let's be real for a minute here - they've played a Brady-less Pats team, Oakland and Atlanta. I think the Broncos are easily the best offense so far that they will have seen. Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, and Tony Scheffler will light it up by air, and Selvin and company will hit the ground running. Four touchdowns or more seems more than plausible.

As for KC getting some points, Larry Johnson should be well over 100 yards against a bad run defense. Damon Huard is starting, so Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez may actually get targets that don't bounce twice on the way there for a change. Expect both of them to score along with LJ as both teams get three TDs before the fourth quarter.



San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (OVER 48) - (2 stars)

This one's similar to Denver / KC. Both teams can score and can't stop anyone, just like Denver. That's a movable object against an unstoppable force. Next stop - end zone. San Fran will run Gore all day long, and JT O'Sullivan will have another "how is he doing that?" kind of game. Speaking of which, Drew Brees will make points and passing yards appear out of thin air. He's been leading a prolific offense even without Marques Colston. The loss of Jeremy Shockey will hurt this week - until Reggie Bush lines up at TE too. Brees will find a way yet again to get some WRs involved. Lance Moore, Robert Meachem, or some guy who delivered the breakfast buffet may go deep and score. It really doesn't matter, each team will have 30 and the OVER will be done before the fourth quarter.

***THREE STAR GAMES***



None. Still not liking these games very much yet, but hey - we want to play, don't we?



Good luck this week, and remember that if you are tempting fate and actually wagering on these games to bet with your head and not over it.

Enjoy the games.
Thanks for the Cash Jeff :popcorn:
 

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