Week 4 survivor/pickem strategy thread (1 Viewer)

[puckalicious]

I'm sure some of you have already used CIN, but I think this could be a good week. They're on a roll, and CLE is just plain awful. Possible downsides include the divisional matchup, and it's on the road which are historically bad ideas in this format. However, I like CIN this week. Or am I setting myself up for a classic pickem mistake?

Other picks I'm looking at are (first team is always the pick):

HOU vs OAK (obvious)

BUF @ MIA (mia looks bad w/o penny, but another risky road divisional game)

SF vs STL (obvious)

What are your choices, and why?

 

[Lehigh98]

CIN

Ugh

divisional matchup

Double Ugh

it's on the road

Triple Ugh

 

[Lehigh98]

Baltimore at New England, 1:00 PM ET

-2.0 44.5 O/U

Tampa Bay at Washington, 1:00 PM ET

-7.0 37.0 O/U

Tennessee at Jacksonville, 1:00 PM ET

+3.0 41.0 O/U

Oakland at Houston, 1:00 PM ET

-9.5 41.5 O/U

Detroit at Bears, 1:00 PM ET

-10.0 38.5 O/U

Cincinnati at Cleveland, 1:00 PM ET

+6.0 38.0 O/U

Seattle at Indianapolis, 1:00 PM ET

-0.0 n/a

NY Giants at Kansas City, 1:00 PM ET

+10.0 42.0 O/U

NY Jets at New Orleans, 4:05 PM ET

-6.5 45.0 O/U

Buffalo at Miami, 4:05 PM ET

+2.5 37.0 O/U

Dallas at Denver, 4:15 PM ET

+0.0 n/a

St. Louis at San Francisco, 4:15 PM ET

-10.0 37.5 O/U

San Diego at Pittsburgh, 8:20 PM ET

-6.0 43.0 O/U

Green Bay at Minnesota, 8:30 PM ET

-3.0 46.0 O/U

 

[Lehigh98]

Tampa Bay at Washington, 1:00 PM ET -7.0 37.0 O/UOakland at Houston, 1:00 PM ET -9.5 41.5 O/UDetroit at Bears, 1:00 PM ET -10.0 38.5 O/USeattle at Indianapolis, 1:00 PM ET -0.0 n/aNY Giants at Kansas City, 1:00 PM ET +10.0 42.0 O/USt. Louis at San Francisco, 4:15 PM ET -10.0 37.5 O/U

Like these at first glance, used NYG already myself though. They have OAK at home next week too though.Washington would be ballsy, considering that one though.Like Indy and Chicago at home. SF seems like a good call too but a little worried about them without Gore.

 

[bryhamm]

I'm sure some of you have already used CIN, but I think this could be a good week. They're on a roll, and CLE is just plain awful. Possible downsides include the divisional matchup, and it's on the road which are historically bad ideas in this format. However, I like CIN this week. Or am I setting myself up for a classic pickem mistake?

Other picks I'm looking at are (first team is always the pick):

HOU vs OAK (obvious)

BUF @ MIA (mia looks bad w/o penny, but another risky road divisional game)

SF vs STL (obvious)

What are your choices, and why?

Exactly when would someone have picked CIN?

 

[puckalicious]

Tampa Bay at Washington, 1:00 PM ET

-7.0 37.0 O/U

Oakland at Houston, 1:00 PM ET

-9.5 41.5 O/U

Detroit at Bears, 1:00 PM ET

-10.0 38.5 O/U

Seattle at Indianapolis, 1:00 PM ET

-0.0 n/a

NY Giants at Kansas City, 1:00 PM ET

+10.0 42.0 O/U

St. Louis at San Francisco, 4:15 PM ET

-10.0 37.5 O/U

Like these at first glance, used NYG already myself though. They have OAK at home next week too though.Washington would be ballsy, considering that one though.

Like Indy and Chicago at home. SF seems like a good call too but a little worried about them without Gore.

I'm in a league where saving teams that are a lock to make playoffs is a good strategy. I plan to save NYG as long as possible. Same with IND.WAS would be ballsy, but I used them last week.

Hadn't thought about CHI, since I'm a blinded Lions homer and think they have a good shot riding the emotion from their first win since 2007. I'm really leaning towards HOU but their run defense has been so bad that OAK could actually put up a fight. As I said, I do like CIN still and may take them. I really think the strategy right now is pick any decent team vs. STL, CLE, OAK, or TB regardless of road games. Possibly WAS fits that now too. One thing DET has going is a budding offense so they could surprise.

Have you ever tracked the double-digit line success rate in pickem? Just curious.

I'm sure some of you have already used CIN, but I think this could be a good week. They're on a roll, and CLE is just plain awful. Possible downsides include the divisional matchup, and it's on the road which are historically bad ideas in this format. However, I like CIN this week. Or am I setting myself up for a classic pickem mistake?

Other picks I'm looking at are (first team is always the pick):

HOU vs OAK (obvious)

BUF @ MIA (mia looks bad w/o penny, but another risky road divisional game)

SF vs STL (obvious)

What are your choices, and why?

Exactly when would someone have picked CIN?

There was some chatter week 1 to use CIN vs DEN, which obviously backfired.

 

[JuSt CuZ]

U really need help in this and is this not a thread asking for advice?

go do this -->

 

[aburt19]

I like the Giants against the Chiefs. Being in a single elimination pool, it often doesn't make sense to save a team figuring that you will use them week 12,

because it may all be over by week 12.

 

[puckalicious]

I like the Giants against the Chiefs. Being in a single elimination pool, it often doesn't make sense to save a team figuring that you will use them week 12,because it may all be over by week 12.

Ah yes, in that format it's no holds barred. Mine happens to be a 3 stike league. Interested in any and all discussion on pickem strategy. Someone remind me how to block annoying childish posts?

 

[QuizGuy66]

I'm sure some of you have already used CIN, but I think this could be a good week. They're on a roll, and CLE is just plain awful. Possible downsides include the divisional matchup, and it's on the road which are historically bad ideas in this format. However, I like CIN this week. Or am I setting myself up for a classic pickem mistake?

Other picks I'm looking at are (first team is always the pick):

HOU vs OAK (obvious)

BUF @ MIA (mia looks bad w/o penny, but another risky road divisional game)

SF vs STL (obvious)

What are your choices, and why?

Um, these folks likely were eliminated week one...I like SF, though that's a divisional game but it's at least at home.

My Bengals SHOULD throttle the Browns but while they've shown an ability to overcome adversity against a couple big-time opponents, this is their first test against a clealry inferior team (Denver's preseason projections notwithstanding). It's a team that knows them well, is desperate, and is at home.

They SHOULD win, but I don't think I'd pin my survivor hopes on them this week.

-QG

 

[Go DC Yourself]

Recently when Cincy has had decent teams and the Browns have sucked, like this year, the Bengals have tended to win in Cle. See: http://www.afc-north.com/rivalry/cincle.html

But I am going with SF, because they don't get any juicy home games until Week 16 against the Lions. Cincy hosts the Browns and Bengals Weeks 12-13.

 

[puckalicious]

Recently when Cincy has had decent teams and the Browns have sucked, like this year, the Bengals have tended to win in Cle. See: http://www.afc-north.com/rivalry/cincle.html

But I am going with SF, because they don't get any juicy home games until Week 16 against the Lions. Cincy hosts the Browns and Bengals Weeks 12-13.

Yeah I'm leaning towards SF at the moment using the same logic. Why not HOU? Should be an easy home game right? Or should we be worried about how many yards they've given up to RBs? With Russell at QB they could probably stack 10 in the box to negate that.

I'm too much a homer to take CHI vs DET, so can someone talk me into this one? My only argument against is that CHI has some good home matchups later like CLE and STL.

 

[Bobcat10]

I was all penciled in for NYG this week until I looked at next week. I changed all my surv picks to be Indy.

I worry about SF being without Gore for the first time this year and I could see the Lions being a big story with a 2 game winning streak. Nothing else really strikes me as being playable besides Houston maybe, but I like Indy more.

I think Indy then NYG moves me to week 6 pretty easily, I hope.

 

[Nigel Tufnel]

I had SF in there, but I may play it safe and just rock the Giants.

 

[gradin123]

Use Indy if you have them. Just about a guaranteed win with all the injuries the Seahawks have. You could save them for later but they will never have a better matchup than this. SF wouldn't be bad but STL actually played them tough last year and with no Gore and an already questionable offense it is far from a guarantee they win.

The texans can't be trusted at all.

Cleveland may get a lift from Anderson at QB and it is not like Cincy is a great team. I try to stay away from close rivals like that as well.

 

[zed2283]

I was all penciled in for NYG this week until I looked at next week. I changed all my surv picks to be Indy.

I worry about SF being without Gore for the first time this year and I could see the Lions being a big story with a 2 game winning streak. Nothing else really strikes me as being playable besides Houston maybe, but I like Indy more.

I think Indy then NYG moves me to week 6 pretty easily, I hope.

This is my thinking as well.

 

[Statcruncher]

I too used to save "lock" teams for later in the season. All that wasted money taught me one thing, if you don't win this weekend next weekend is gone. Weather and injuries can alter "future" locks anyway, use them while you can and be thankful for them. Once you go 17 games without missing a game you have earned the right to try and get fancy saving picks. Until then pick the absolute best lock available. I hate to jinx myself but I have the NYG. I honestly think their starting QB, RB, and WR could go down and they still beat the Chiefs 99 times out of 100.

 

[gradin123]

I too used to save "lock" teams for later in the season. All that wasted money taught me one thing, if you don't win this weekend next weekend is gone. Weather and injuries can alter "future" locks anyway, use them while you can and be thankful for them. Once you go 17 games without missing a game you have earned the right to try and get fancy saving picks. Until then pick the absolute best lock available. I hate to jinx myself but I have the NYG. I honestly think their starting QB, RB, and WR could go down and they still beat the Chiefs 99 times out of 100.

Indy is more of a lock than the Giants simply because they are at home.The Seahawks will be without Hasslebeck,half their OL and most of their secondary.

 

[AB in DC]

But I am going with SF, because they don't get any juicy home games until Week 16 against the Lions. Cincy hosts the Browns and Bengals Weeks 12-13.

The same is true for Houston, though. I can't see wanting to pick them again until maybe week 15.For SF, there's at least an outside possibility that I would use them next week vs. Atlanta.

 

[Statcruncher]

I too used to save "lock" teams for later in the season. All that wasted money taught me one thing, if you don't win this weekend next weekend is gone. Weather and injuries can alter "future" locks anyway, use them while you can and be thankful for them. Once you go 17 games without missing a game you have earned the right to try and get fancy saving picks. Until then pick the absolute best lock available. I hate to jinx myself but I have the NYG. I honestly think their starting QB, RB, and WR could go down and they still beat the Chiefs 99 times out of 100.

Indy is more of a lock than the Giants simply because they are at home.The Seahawks will be without Hasslebeck,half their OL and most of their secondary.

Valid points, but the Giants won the Super Bowl playing every playoff game on the road so they are no stranger to road wins. For the Colts or Giants to lose it's going to take a terrible offensive outing and an uncharacteristic offensive output by their opponent. I have an easier time seeing Seattle hanging points on the Colts D than I do the Chiefs torching the Giants. IMO the depleted Seattle team is still more talented than the current KC team. Anyway, it's all about opinions, good luck to everyone.

 

[Bills_Fan11]

Reminds me a lot of 2yrs ago when everyone thought Cincy was a lock going into Cleveland.

You can say "that Browns team was much better" or "this Bengals team is better" or any number of hindsight arguments after watching that season unfold, but the spread for that game was higher than it is this week and you're not smarter than Vegas. A 5.5 road favorite is an awful pick with SF, Houston, and Indy all out there. Also lol @ Buffalo being an option.

 

[zed2283]

Reminds me a lot of 2yrs ago when everyone thought Cincy was a lock going into Cleveland. You can say "that Browns team was much better" or "this Bengals team is better" or any number of hindsight arguments after watching that season unfold, but the spread for that game was higher than it is this week and you're not smarter than Vegas. A 5.5 road favorite is an awful pick with SF, Houston, and Indy all out there. Also lol @ Buffalo being an option.

If it's one thing I've learned, it's that you can't trust the Bengals for anything... even to lose (see Packers).

 

[HULLOBUDMAN]

I try to avoid 3 things when picking in my pool if possible:

1) no road teams

2) no rivalry games

3) no prime time games

Using those statndards I am left this week with:

Washington

Indy

Houston

I think I am rolling with Houston.

 

[Man In The Box]

Single elimination. Used BAL, WAS, PHI. Rolling with IND this week.

 

[skillz]

I thought about it but couldn't pull the trigger. Here's why:

Bengals are not exactly a reliable option even though they have played well so far this season. They're past history of losing is something I can't get out of my head when tempted to pick them this week.

This could be a letdown game after the Pitt victory.

They are on the road vs a divisional rival - yes, it's Cleveland but you never know what will happen in a rivalry game.

Derek Anderson may provide a spark to the Browns offense this week - not saying he will but they could "rally around the QB" and play their best game of the season vs. Cincy.

Marvin Lewis may make a boneheaded decision in a close game that will cost the Bengals a victory.

There are better, more safer options to pick from (I picked the Giants), but others like Indy, SF who are playing at home also have a better chance to win IMO.

You can always pick the Bengals later in the season when they play Cleveland at home.

* Disclaimer: I picked the Bengals week 1 last year in the survivor pool and they lost so I am still bitter about that.

 

[Lehigh98]

Was between IND and SF. (Used BAL, WAS, and NYG already)

Was going back and forth and what decided it was IND plays STL (on the road) in week 7 but don't see any other games in the near future where I'd consider SF.

 

[skillz]

Use Indy if you have them. Just about a guaranteed win with all the injuries the Seahawks have. You could save them for later but they will never have a better matchup than this.

Indy does play St. Louis in week 7 though so I am trying to hold off on picking them until then. Giants are the safest pick IMO

 

[Morton Muffley]

I get the love for Indy, NYG, and SF...and I understand some people wanting to roll with Cinci....but where's the love for Chicago (playing at home against Detroit)?

 

[LadyBeBop]

If it's one thing I've learned, it's that you can't trust the Bengals for anything... even to lose (see Packers).

As a frustrated Bengals fan, probably for longer than most of y'all been alive, I have two rules for picking Survivor teams.1) Never pick the Bengals.2) Never pick the team playing the Bengals.

 

[editor47]

1) don't pick road teams unless you have to. its week 4, you don't have to.

2) try to avoid division/rivalry games.

3) pick good teams - the bengals have yet to make that leap, though they beat the steelers. i want to see a little more,

i'm probably going colts. i used all my 'ballsyness' picking the redskins to beat the rams and had to sweat that out.

 

[puckalicious]

Great posts all. I'm officially talked out of using CIN! Rolling with SF. I think CHI is also a very good pick but they have good matchups later whereas I don't think SF does.

 

[Bills_Fan11]

Eh you kinda deserve to lose for considering the Bengals and Bills.

 

[renesauz]

OK...Was there ever a week 4 survivor thread posted? I've looked a half dozen times for it without success, and now there's only one game left to choose from.

 

[skillz]

OK...Was there ever a week 4 survivor thread posted? I've looked a half dozen times for it without success, and now there's only one game left to choose from.

Yes, people have been picking all week. It gets off the first page occasionally but it was around this week.