Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
First of all, take these all with a grain of salt.
Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.
Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.
My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.
Week 5 - Still not really (A) "feeling it" just yet and (B) not liking the choices. I do like two games this week as for picking vs. the spread, so I will share those. Other than that, I'm all about the Over/Under.... Let's talk.
Here we go:
*ONE STAR GAMES*
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Denver Broncos (OVER 46) - (1 star)
Denver his producing some serious points, and they need to with that defense. The Bucs may not have a big play offense, but they have two solid backs in Graham and Dunn that could combine for 200+ total yards in Week 5. The total is big for a reason, and that's because Vegas expects 20+ points from each side. Add in that both kickers have been rock-solid in this game and that the defenses are opportunistic and I can see 24 on each side of the ball here.
Detroit Lions (+3.5) vs. Chicago Bears - (1 star)
This one could be ugly. This is one of those picks where you just go ahead and make the call and don't watch it, because it will not be a pretty game. This is purely a pick based upon the fact that Detroit is at home and that they have to figure out how to win a game, so why not pick them with 2 weeks off and coming off of the bye with preparations for the Bears?
Chicago played a draining game, both physically and emotionally, Sunday night against Philadelphia. I think that Forte will have a big game, but Detroit may eek out a win - if not, I'll take a 3 point loss and be happy with it. Just don't make me watch every snap.
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (OVER 46) - (1 star)
Minnesota is strong against the run, but the Saints are a pass first, pass second, maybe run on occasion style of team. Reggie Bush will do that for you. Deuce may be back, but this is the Vikings team. Speaking of which, Adrian Peterson on Monday Night Football? I agree with the masses - big game for him.
Both sides could easily get 3 TDs, so I'll take the over here. Monday Night, I believe, is perfect vs. the OVER this year as well.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (OVER 48) - (1 star)
This is a big total, but the last time these two played with Matt Schaub under center, it was 30-24 with Schaub going 27 of 33 for 236 yards and a TD. Remember, this is Houston's home opener, and there is no Bob Sanders to stop a hot Steve Slaton.
As for the Colts, they had a week off and should come out of the gates throwing and scoring early and often in this one. I suspect that they have a big first half but the Texans get some later scores to make it look closer than it probably was, but I don't see a ton of defense on either side.
I'm not in love with the pick (hence "1 star") but I like the over here.
**TWO STAR GAMES**
Washington Redskins (+6.5) at Philadelphia Eagles - (2 stars)
Westbrook will be back, but this is the NFC East. These two ALWAYS play tight against each other. The game is HUGE for Philly as they cannot afford to go down to 2-3 in the NFC, but Washington will put up a good fight. Odds are strong that this is less than a TD game, so go with the points here.
Yes, this pains me to pick as an Eagles fan, but this is what the numbers tell me to do - so what can you do?
Hope for an Eagles win but a Redskins cover, I guess.
As for Washington - they are coming off of a big, big win in Dallas and while every team is supposed to take it one week at a time, they cannot help but notice the schedule after this week - STL, CLE and at DET? Even if they drop this game, they are looking at a 6-2 record with all 3 NFC East rematches at home later this year.
***THREE STAR GAMES***
None. Still not liking these games very much yet, but hey - we want to play, don't we?
Good luck this week, and remember that if you are tempting fate and actually wagering on these games to bet with your head and not over it.
Enjoy the games.
Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.
Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.
My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.
Week 5 - Still not really (A) "feeling it" just yet and (B) not liking the choices. I do like two games this week as for picking vs. the spread, so I will share those. Other than that, I'm all about the Over/Under.... Let's talk.
Here we go:
*ONE STAR GAMES*
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Denver Broncos (OVER 46) - (1 star)
Denver his producing some serious points, and they need to with that defense. The Bucs may not have a big play offense, but they have two solid backs in Graham and Dunn that could combine for 200+ total yards in Week 5. The total is big for a reason, and that's because Vegas expects 20+ points from each side. Add in that both kickers have been rock-solid in this game and that the defenses are opportunistic and I can see 24 on each side of the ball here.
Detroit Lions (+3.5) vs. Chicago Bears - (1 star)
This one could be ugly. This is one of those picks where you just go ahead and make the call and don't watch it, because it will not be a pretty game. This is purely a pick based upon the fact that Detroit is at home and that they have to figure out how to win a game, so why not pick them with 2 weeks off and coming off of the bye with preparations for the Bears?
Chicago played a draining game, both physically and emotionally, Sunday night against Philadelphia. I think that Forte will have a big game, but Detroit may eek out a win - if not, I'll take a 3 point loss and be happy with it. Just don't make me watch every snap.
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (OVER 46) - (1 star)
Minnesota is strong against the run, but the Saints are a pass first, pass second, maybe run on occasion style of team. Reggie Bush will do that for you. Deuce may be back, but this is the Vikings team. Speaking of which, Adrian Peterson on Monday Night Football? I agree with the masses - big game for him.
Both sides could easily get 3 TDs, so I'll take the over here. Monday Night, I believe, is perfect vs. the OVER this year as well.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (OVER 48) - (1 star)
This is a big total, but the last time these two played with Matt Schaub under center, it was 30-24 with Schaub going 27 of 33 for 236 yards and a TD. Remember, this is Houston's home opener, and there is no Bob Sanders to stop a hot Steve Slaton.
As for the Colts, they had a week off and should come out of the gates throwing and scoring early and often in this one. I suspect that they have a big first half but the Texans get some later scores to make it look closer than it probably was, but I don't see a ton of defense on either side.
I'm not in love with the pick (hence "1 star") but I like the over here.
**TWO STAR GAMES**
Washington Redskins (+6.5) at Philadelphia Eagles - (2 stars)
Westbrook will be back, but this is the NFC East. These two ALWAYS play tight against each other. The game is HUGE for Philly as they cannot afford to go down to 2-3 in the NFC, but Washington will put up a good fight. Odds are strong that this is less than a TD game, so go with the points here.
Yes, this pains me to pick as an Eagles fan, but this is what the numbers tell me to do - so what can you do?
Hope for an Eagles win but a Redskins cover, I guess.As for Washington - they are coming off of a big, big win in Dallas and while every team is supposed to take it one week at a time, they cannot help but notice the schedule after this week - STL, CLE and at DET? Even if they drop this game, they are looking at a 6-2 record with all 3 NFC East rematches at home later this year.
***THREE STAR GAMES***
None. Still not liking these games very much yet, but hey - we want to play, don't we?
Good luck this week, and remember that if you are tempting fate and actually wagering on these games to bet with your head and not over it.
Enjoy the games.
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