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Weekly Rankings Question (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter jaymay75
- Start date
Velvet Revolver
Footballguy
I say go with your gut - everyone has projections but they are based on a personal bias of how things may turn out. Based on past performances of course but you know you can view 3-4 various projection lists and they all will be different
Use both of what you have as a guide and then go with your gut- good luck!
Use both of what you have as a guide and then go with your gut- good luck!
FWIW, last year I did a yearlong analysis of prediction accuracy using 7 free sources of weekly player projections.
The results were as follows, from most accurate to least accurate:
Dodds (FBG)
Bloom (FBG)
FFToday
CBS Sportsline
ESPN
FantasySharks
CNNSI
You wouldn't want to use the Draft Dominator, since that's a static forecast that's made pre-season. Might be OK for week 1, but naturally as the year moves along it'll be less and less relevant as guys get hurt and teams and players over/under perform their preseason projection.
The results were as follows, from most accurate to least accurate:
Dodds (FBG)
Bloom (FBG)
FFToday
CBS Sportsline
ESPN
FantasySharks
CNNSI
You wouldn't want to use the Draft Dominator, since that's a static forecast that's made pre-season. Might be OK for week 1, but naturally as the year moves along it'll be less and less relevant as guys get hurt and teams and players over/under perform their preseason projection.
awesome, thanks for sharing. are you gonna continue tracking the projections this yr?FWIW, last year I did a yearlong analysis of prediction accuracy using 7 free sources of weekly player projections.The results were as follows, from most accurate to least accurateodds (FBG)Bloom (FBG)FFTodayCBS SportslineESPNFantasySharksCNNSIYou wouldn't want to use the Draft Dominator, since that's a static forecast that's made pre-season. Might be OK for week 1, but naturally as the year moves along it'll be less and less relevant as guys get hurt and teams and players over/under perform their preseason projection.
kip stabone
Footballguy
The rankings based upon projections that Dodds/Tremblay/Bloom put together on a weekly basis can be adjusted for your league's particular scoring system much like DD does for season projections. I believe you enter the info in your "My FBG" page and then on the weekly projections page there is an option to see the rankings based upon your league's scoring system. Works really well.
Having a hard time with Kolb over Favre this week. Dodds has Kolb ranked ahead of Favre, but last year the Packers were #5 vs the pass and the Saints gave up some big games...plus on Thursday nighter Favre may just be out for blood....and Kolb is starting his first big game of the year after a shaky preseason.
I probably will.If you know of other sites that should be included, I'm all ears. whatifsports.com is one I'm looking to add.awesome, thanks for sharing. are you gonna continue tracking the projections this yr?FWIW, last year I did a yearlong analysis of prediction accuracy using 7 free sources of weekly player projections.The results were as follows, from most accurate to least accurate
kip stabone
Footballguy
I'd be curious about Tony Holm's Fantasy Sharks and Bruno Boys. Thanks.I probably will.If you know of other sites that should be included, I'm all ears. whatifsports.com is one I'm looking to add.awesome, thanks for sharing. are you gonna continue tracking the projections this yr?FWIW, last year I did a yearlong analysis of prediction accuracy using 7 free sources of weekly player projections.The results were as follows, from most accurate to least accurate
Fantasy Sharks are in there. They did poorly (6th of 7).Just checked out Bruno Boys. They just do weekly rankings. I include only sites that project weekly yards, tds, ints, etc. An analysis of ranking accuracy (rather than projection accuracy), would be a different (and IMO less valuable) task.kip stabone said:I'd be curious about Tony Holm's Fantasy Sharks and Bruno Boys. Thanks.davearm said:I probably will.If you know of other sites that should be included, I'm all ears. whatifsports.com is one I'm looking to add.cvnpoka said:awesome, thanks for sharing. are you gonna continue tracking the projections this yr?davearm said:FWIW, last year I did a yearlong analysis of prediction accuracy using 7 free sources of weekly player projections.The results were as follows, from most accurate to least accurate
whodeywhodey
Footballguy
I'd love to see some more stats on this. Awesome work!davearm said:FWIW, last year I did a yearlong analysis of prediction accuracy using 7 free sources of weekly player projections.The results were as follows, from most accurate to least accurate
kip stabone
Footballguy
Makes sense, thanks.Fantasy Sharks are in there. They did poorly (6th of 7).Just checked out Bruno Boys. They just do weekly rankings. I include only sites that project weekly yards, tds, ints, etc. An analysis of ranking accuracy (rather than projection accuracy), would be a different (and IMO less valuable) task.kip stabone said:I'd be curious about Tony Holm's Fantasy Sharks and Bruno Boys. Thanks.davearm said:I probably will.If you know of other sites that should be included, I'm all ears. whatifsports.com is one I'm looking to add.cvnpoka said:awesome, thanks for sharing. are you gonna continue tracking the projections this yr?davearm said:FWIW, last year I did a yearlong analysis of prediction accuracy using 7 free sources of weekly player projections.The results were as follows, from most accurate to least accurate
Rick James
Footballguy
I was under the impression that the projections in the Draft Dominator are updated frequently; since downloading the tool a month ago, they've released updated projections 6-7 times.davearm said:
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
That's because Dodds and Bloom project over half the players to have between 0.4 and 0.6 TDs and go right down the middle in yardage too. They rarely can hit on a player because the guy either scores a TD or he doesn't but they are rarely off by much either. The guy projecting a 0 or 1 TD is going to hit on more players but miss more too.davearm said:FWIW, last year I did a yearlong analysis of prediction accuracy using 7 free sources of weekly player projections.The results were as follows, from most accurate to least accurate
whodeywhodey
Footballguy
This thread is a lot like mine from yesterday.
Can we merge them?
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=553022
Can we merge them?
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=553022
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Doing decimal TDs does indeed yield more accurate results. To each his own I guess, but IMO it's much better info. The decimals provide better precision than the integers.That's because Dodds and Bloom project over half the players to have between 0.4 and 0.6 TDs and go right down the middle in yardage too. They rarely can hit on a player because the guy either scores a TD or he doesn't but they are rarely off by much either. The guy projecting a 0 or 1 TD is going to hit on more players but miss more too.davearm said:FWIW, last year I did a yearlong analysis of prediction accuracy using 7 free sources of weekly player projections.The results were as follows, from most accurate to least accurate
What I've done is gather together the weekly projections from 7 "expert" sources, and compared them against the weekly actual points scored. The sources I'm using are FBGs Dodds and Bloom, along with FFToday, CBS, ESPN, CNNSI, and Fantasy Sharks.The scoring I'm using is pass yard = .04, pass TD = 4, INT = -1, rush/rec yard = 0.1, rush/rec TD = 6, zero PPR.I'm limiting the analysis scope to each source's top 20 QBs, 40 RBs, 50 WRs, and 20 TEs in each week. Thus after a 17 week season, each source is being graded using ~2200 datapoints: 17x(20+40+50+20).Each source's projection accuracy is measured using six different error measures: Mean Forecast Error, Mean Absolute Error, Mean Percentage Error, Mean Absolute Percentage Error, Mean Squared Error, and Root Mean Squared Error. Then each source is ranked on each of these error measures, 1 through 7. Finally, I take the average rank across the six measure to get the source's "final" score. This ranking analysis is performed by position, and overall.Onto the results
odds and Bloom are the two most accurate predictors, with Dodds having the edge over Bloom.FF Today and CBS are more or less equal as the next-tier predictors.ESPN, Fantasy Sharks, and CNNSI are clearly underperforming relative to the four sources above.The overall (non-position specific) rankings areoddsBloomFFTodayCBSESPNSharksCNNSIThe rankings specific to QB, RB, WR, and TE are not particularly illuminating... the patterns are more or less the same as seen in the overall results.As discussed briefly above, one reason why the FBGs are dominating this thing is that they are the only source to generate fractional TD forecasts. All of the other sources project TDs in whole numbers.Dodds gets a further boost because he is the only source to update his projections as the week progresses, so he's able to incorporate late-week information such as injury updates into his numbers.
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