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We're Too Down On Russell Wilson and Too High On Geno Smith (1 Viewer)

rockaction

Footballguy
This is really self-explanatory. I can't understand how Russ's career is now effectively over and that he stinks (and that it's been proven that he does) whereas Geno is heir apparent to a great system and just needed eight-ten years to come around. Oh yeah, and that Pete Carroll is a savant who outthinks the game by drafting running backs and linebackers in the first round and for sure the game hasn't passed by his run/pass ratio at all.

Truly doubt it. Prove me wrong here. Aside from if Carroll has actually been lapped by cover two and his run/pass ratio is right on these days. Either way, doesn't make him a savant all of the sudden even with Denver struggling way they are.

The overreactions to the first weeks of the football season have been priceless.

A thousand yelling Richard Shermans aren't winning back his Super Bowl. The fourth and one pass was the right play -- Russ just missed a guy running free. It happens.
 
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rockaction

Footballguy
Maybe the truth is somewhere in the middle. Russ has aged to average and is struggling now due to injury and unfamiliarity with a new system. Geno fell into the perfect spot for his skill set.

Perhaps. According to ESPN, Russ has a partially torn latissimus muscle. I did not know that when I took this thread out. I think it's relatively new news, and fairly significant news at that.
 

eighsse2

Footballguy
This is really self-explanatory. I can't understand how Russ's career is now effectively over and that he stinks (and that it's been proven that he does) whereas Geno is heir apparent to a great system and just needed eight-ten years to come around. Oh yeah, and that Pete Carroll is a savant who outthinks the game by drafting running backs and linebackers in the first round and for sure the game hasn't passed by his run/pass ratio at all.

Truly doubt it. Prove me wrong here. Aside from if Carroll has actually been lapped by cover two and his run/pass ratio is right on these days. Either way, doesn't make him a savant all of the sudden even with Denver struggling way they are.

The overreactions to the first weeks of the football season have been priceless.

A thousand yelling Richard Shermans aren't winning back his Super Bowl. The fourth and one pass was the right play -- Russ just missed a guy running free. It happens.
Agree about Wilson. O-line has been garbage, that can definitely hurt you. I know it's a quarter of the season in the books and the offense still isn't getting it done points-wise. But I think there's a decent chance they get it together. If I looked at Russ' stat line and it was 50% completions, 185 ypg, 4 TD, 9 INT through 5 games, I'd be more worried. Big picture, he's doing okay, but we want to see better. It's not even like they're 0-5. They're 2-3!

I don't know much of anything about Geno, but it is a bit sudden to go crazy over a guy whose name was a punchline in the preseason.
 

FairWarning

Footballguy
Personally I would rather have Geno because if it doesn’t work out, you just get another qb since he was a WW pickup anyway. Players like Wilson, Stafford, and Brady are roster killers - you drafted them and can’t believe that is all they are scoring for you, but you keep starting them hoping for 2019 to reappear.
 

eighsse2

Footballguy
Personally I would rather have Geno because if it doesn’t work out, you just get another qb since he was a WW pickup anyway. Players like Wilson, Stafford, and Brady are roster killers - you drafted them and can’t believe that is all they are scoring for you, but you keep starting them hoping for 2019 to reappear.
Oh! Oh! 👋🖐️👋🖐️ I know this one! "Then you drop them and then 2019 reappears"?
 

Summer Wheat

Footballguy
I thought his production was dropping off around the middle of last season. I like Wilson, but this is a awful fit for him.

Agree on this. Last year Wilson did not look quite as nimble or sharp as previous years. Have to remember some guy's age faster than others and Wilson is 34 now. not old but getting there for his style of play.

This year the trend continued. Tough to see the back end of his contract working out well for Denver.

As far as Geno goes he is a vet who has watched and learned. Geno is never going to be a stud, but he has the tools to be solid and is making good decisions.
 

rockaction

Footballguy
The shoulder injury is concerning.

Indeed. I was unaware of it until about an hour ago, which was after I started this. I still stand by its premise, though. There's no way Russ fell off this fast, is there? I mean, there's got to be an injury or problems acclimating to a new system. Thirty-four isn't young, but it isn't Geezerland™, either.
 

FairWarning

Footballguy
I thought his production was dropping off around the middle of last season. I like Wilson, but this is a awful fit for him.

Agree on this. Last year Wilson did not look quite as nimble or sharp as previous years. Have to remember some guy's age faster than others and Wilson is 34 now. not old but getting there for his style of play.

This year the trend continued. Tough to see the back end of his contract working out well for Denver.

As far as Geno goes he is a vet who has watched and learned. Geno is never going to be a stud, but he has the tools to be solid and is making good decisions.
We were discussing CJ Stroud the other night. Look at the qb starters in the league this week, few are from elite programs, or top draft picks. Just as many take the Geno Smith route. I never thought he would make it, but good for him.
 

rockaction

Footballguy
Matter of fact, we were still screaming "Let Russ cook. Fire Carroll!" until the thumb happened. That was consensus, wasn't it?
 

rockaction

Footballguy
Just as many take the Geno Smith route

They do not. The QBs that get drafted after the second round rarely wind up starting in the NFL. There are studies on it. I'd whip one out, but I don't have one handy. After the first round, huge drop-off in QB talent. Geno went at the beginning of the second, anyway, to the Jets. Not too far down the draft board.
 

FairWarning

Footballguy
Just as many take the Geno Smith route

They do not. The QBs that get drafted after the second round rarely wind up starting in the NFL. There are studies on it. I'd whip one out, but I don't have one handy. After the first round, huge drop-off in QB talent. Geno went at the beginning of the second, anyway, to the Jets. Not too far down the draft board.
I mean just bouncing around and all of a sudden reappear.
 

habsfan

Footballguy
When it comes to players in new situations, it seems that struggling is the norm and being awesome / not skipping a beat is the exception. Stafford last year jumps out as a notable exception of someone who went to a new situation and actually performed in the vicinity of what people expected.

In fantasy I try to avoid players in new situations or at least use that as the "tie breaker" between two similar players but this year there was so much "new" that it was simply impossible.

So Russ came in to a great D and great weapons and everything isn't awesome? Colour me shocked.
 

SeniorVBDStudent

Footballguy
Four games for Gino is way too small a sample size. People root for the underdog so its understandable. Let's revisit after the next 5 games.

Wilson's underperformance is 60% bad coaching, 20% pedestrian recievers (yes Sutton and Jeudy are both overrated) and 20% his millenial entitled attitude (I deserve an office! I'm important!).
 

habsfan

Footballguy
Do we give Gino a pass for the start of his career cause it was the Jets? And Rex Ryan.

Maybe. It could be as simple as everyone writing him off. Once the league decides what you are / aren't it's pretty hard to escape that label.
 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
I’m guessing defensive coordinators will better scheme against Geno, and he will start producing closer to his career baseline numbers. And Russ will start doing better once he gets acclimated to DEN. But I don’t think Wilson will put up quite the same numbers as he did with SEA. A little bit older, a little less potent offense, a little more conservative offense. Bottom line, Wilson will still be better long term, Smith better than we expected, but Geno isn’t a Top 10 fantasy QB and Wilson is better than the #20 QB. Russ will probably settle into the QB 12-15 range and Smith in the QB 20-25 range over the longer term.
 

SoBeDad

Footballguy
We're 8 games into the return of Geno. Last year, he had a great fantasy game vs Jax, and 3 bad fantasy (and conservative) games versus 3 good defenses, NO, PIT, LAR. Their defense isn't that good. I think he's startable in about half of his games going forward.
 

BladeRunner

Footballguy
Maybe the truth is somewhere in the middle. Russ has aged to average and is struggling now due to injury and unfamiliarity with a new system. Geno fell into the perfect spot for his skill set.
I think this is the most likely reason.

Geno is a great guy but there's a reason he's been a career backup.
 

Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
Do we give Gino a pass for the start of his career cause it was the Jets? And Rex Ryan.
To some extent yes - although it was the locker room broken jaw that really killed Geno’s early career as it let Fitzmagic be unleashed and lost Geno a ton of respect from the team. Geno was never a terrible QB. He was just a “bonehead” turning the ball over and never learning from mistakes.

He has mostly struggled at other stops as well but I’m not convinced this is a mirage. He’s been around a long time and learned some things. He comes across more humble and a lead by example guy. Hes also playing with good skill players. He’s definitely not going to be An 80% completion guy, but think he’ll keep up this pace (not just game 4) going forward.
 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
Forget to mention. Geno won’t face ATL and DET every week. When half the sample size is against the worst and probably a Bottom 5 pass defense, your numbers will look better than they really are.
 

Tanner9919

Footballguy
This is really self-explanatory. I can't understand how Russ's career is now effectively over and that he stinks (and that it's been proven that he does) whereas Geno is heir apparent to a great system and just needed eight-ten years to come around. Oh yeah, and that Pete Carroll is a savant who outthinks the game by drafting running backs and linebackers in the first round and for sure the game hasn't passed by his run/pass ratio at all.

Truly doubt it. Prove me wrong here. Aside from if Carroll has actually been lapped by cover two and his run/pass ratio is right on these days. Either way, doesn't make him a savant all of the sudden even with Denver struggling way they are.

The overreactions to the first weeks of the football season have been priceless.

A thousand yelling Richard Shermans aren't winning back his Super Bowl. The fourth and one pass was the right play -- Russ just missed a guy running free. It happens.
Carroll >>>>>>>>> nate damn hackett. that's about the easiest explanation, really. but diving into it, watching Wilson v colts, I saw the wet noodle armed Eli Manning and not the baseball star with the golden arm. Denver fans have already given him what Yankees fans would call the Bronx jeer.
 

Ghost Rider

Footballguy
I agree with this thread.

Wilson does look old and slower, but the shoulder injury changes it a bit.

I don't think Geno Smith is suddenly good; I just think he has benefited by playing some bad defenses early on. Let's see how it plays out over the whole season rather than the small sample size of a few games.

As for Richard Sherman, he is just mad that Wilson didn't bail him out in the SB. Let's face it, Sherman and his D blew that game. They blew a double digit 4th quarter lead in the Super Bowl. Any notions of them being one of the all-time great defenses went out the window in that hour.
 

dipandglide

Footballguy
Personally I would rather have Geno because if it doesn’t work out, you just get another qb since he was a WW pickup anyway. Players like Wilson, Stafford, and Brady are roster killers - you drafted them and can’t believe that is all they are scoring for you, but you keep starting them hoping for 2019 to reappear.
Terrible take. Rewind to just last year and look at the stats. Last year wasn't 2019 last I checked.

It's a combo of injuries (both QB and WR's) and few games reps (rust). I'm a buyer in any Superflex leagues where FairWarning types are hitting the eject button.
 

dipandglide

Footballguy
Russ has an injury, weak WR core (JJ is terrible), and is with a new team. What do you expect Russ to do when they don't get game reps anymore? Add in an incompetent coach. It's not a good recipe.

Russ might not be the top 5 option he was for many years. But he'll be a top-15 option for the foreseeable future. BUYING!
 

FairWarning

Footballguy
Personally I would rather have Geno because if it doesn’t work out, you just get another qb since he was a WW pickup anyway. Players like Wilson, Stafford, and Brady are roster killers - you drafted them and can’t believe that is all they are scoring for you, but you keep starting them hoping for 2019 to reappear.
Terrible take. Rewind to just last year and look at the stats. Last year wasn't 2019 last I checked.

It's a combo of injuries (both QB and WR's) and few games reps (rust). I'm a buyer in any Superflex leagues where FairWarning types are hitting the eject button.
A super flex is totally different. Of course Wilson has far more value in that.

I would love to play the Wilson owner in any format right now.
 

FairWarning

Footballguy
I’m guessing defensive coordinators will better scheme against Geno, and he will start producing closer to his career baseline numbers. And Russ will start doing better once he gets acclimated to DEN. But I don’t think Wilson will put up quite the same numbers as he did with SEA. A little bit older, a little less potent offense, a little more conservative offense. Bottom line, Wilson will still be better long term, Smith better than we expected, but Geno isn’t a Top 10 fantasy QB and Wilson is better than the #20 QB. Russ will probably settle into the QB 12-15 range and Smith in the QB 20-25 range over the longer term.
Two things work for Geno right now. - the lack of a strong running game, and they are behind a decent amount.
 

wgoldsph

Footballguy
The hot take freak out reactions on this board this season have been insane. During the Thursday night season opener the rams were "DONE FOREVER WORST TEAM IN THE NFL" by the second half.
There's just no long term objectivity here.
 

Jayded

Footballguy
I think the title of “system quarterback” can be really misleading at times. It might not be that Geno is a great system quarterback or that Seattle has a great system in the first place, but a smart plan to blend the two.

It reminds me of when a college QB gets hurt and a freshman goes in. Same system, but a smart coach shrinks the playbook and simplifies the reads. Maybe Seattle has gotten that balance correct and Denver’s still trying to get too cute. They need to simplify, get their footing, and then expand.
 

FairWarning

Footballguy
The hot take freak out reactions on this board this season have been insane. During the Thursday night season opener the rams were "DONE FOREVER WORST TEAM IN THE NFL" by the second half.
There's just no long term objectivity here.
I’ll give a hot take - what happened last year doesn’t guarantee anything this year. Too many player and coaching changes affect everything . QB may be the most consistent, but people are betting on a 34-YO. If you disagree, just look at the 1st round of redrafts every year and look at the failure rate.
 

wgoldsph

Footballguy
The hot take freak out reactions on this board this season have been insane. During the Thursday night season opener the rams were "DONE FOREVER WORST TEAM IN THE NFL" by the second half.
There's just no long term objectivity here.
I’ll give a hot take - what happened last year doesn’t guarantee anything this year. Too many player and coaching changes affect everything . QB may be the most consistent, but people are betting on a 34-YO. If you disagree, just look at the 1st round of redrafts every year and look at the failure rate.
We're a quarter through the season so it's no longer a hot take. I'm talking half way through the first game.
 

Craig_MiamiFL

Footballguy
Love watching folks turn themselves into a pretzel trying to blame everything but Wilson :lmao:

We love to see it. :lol:

Let Geno Cook

This is beautiful. Geno and the inevitable implosion in Denver :towelwave:
 

Desert_Power

Footballguy
I’m not sure what is going on with Russ, but he looks like a QB in the last year of his career. Doesn’t run anymore and is making awful decisions.

Fun to see Geno blossoming into an actually good NFL QB. He certainly paid his dues in the league.
 

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