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Wes Welker not a HoFer (1 Viewer)

This is too narrow since Welker will be competing with far more players than I've included here, but I didn't think of that until after I'd already done this and I'm lazy so I'll be giving full refunds on request.

Here are the top 15 career yardage #s to date for WRs who entered the NFL from 2000-2008 (i.e. within four years of Welker on either side):

Reggie Wayne 13063Steve Smith 11452Andre Johnson 11254Chad Johnson 11059Larry Fitzgerald 10413Anquan Boldin 10170Santana Moss 9715Roddy White 8725Laveranues Coles 8609Wes Welker 8580Plaxico Burress 8499Calvin Johnson 7836Chris Chambers 7770Brandon Marshall 7768Marques Colston 7393Of those, Welker won't finish ahead of:Reggie Wayne 13063

Steve Smith 11452

Andre Johnson 11254

Larry Fitzgerald 10413

Calvin Johnson 7836

And he might not finish ahead of:

Chad Johnson 11059

Anquan Boldin 10170

Roddy White 8725

Brandon Marshall 7768

Marques Colston 7393

And TDs looks ever worse.

I'm sure the Hall of Fame voters would love to vote in a white, 'gritty' guy who played for teams with Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, but he's not even in the discussion as one of top five WRs from the narrow 'Wes Welker era'. He might not even be top 10 when all is said and done.

There's just no case to be made in his favor.
:goodposting:

This argument sort of reminds me of a few years ago when I was hearing is McNabb a HOFer. As with Welker, to me its a pretty easy "no" because while being a very good player at their positions, they were still below that elite tier even during their best 5 year stretch more often than not. McNabb isnt getting into the HOF ahead of Peyton, Brady, Favre, Warner, Brees, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, Eli, no chance at all, and that is a lot of QBs in itself to potentially go into the HOF over a ~25 year period. Welker in all likelihood has more competition and the WR position.

 
CalBear said:
FUBAR said:
CalBear said:
FreeBaGeL said:
CalBear said:
Yes, because catches are an input stat, and like all other input stats are not very useful in determining how good a player is. If you make the top 10 in career receptions without ever putting up good output stats, you are the definition of a compiler.
This is just something that you've made up out of thin air. We all have our own opinions, but I don't agree at all here. You're basically inferring that 1-trick pony deep threats with nothing but straight line speed are superior. I mean, 1 catch for 80 yards is better than 5 for 70, right?

Welker isn't asked to put up 16ypc. He runs a lot of routes that terminate towards the sideline or with him coming to a stop. Sure, it's easier to line up in the slot in man coverage and get open, but Welker does it with an ease and consistency that no one has ever replicated. You put him in the slot and give him one of 4 routes to run and no one in the NFL can cover him consistently. Given that no one in the NFL can do it, it's likely that means there's no one in the world that can do it. He's just too quick. You put him in the middle of the field in man coverage and it's impossible to prevent him from getting open with any kind of consistency. It's not like he's some slow plodder who gets left uncovered as a check-down. He's absurdly quick out of his cuts.

The notion that catches are just a compiler stat and touchdowns, the most variable and unpredictable of all statistics, are ever-important is one I can't agree with.
Anyone who works with metrics for a living knows that input metrics suck. "Our library has 6 million books." Great, so what? Who is using them, how many of them get used, how does that compare to other libraries?

Eddie George's 1999 where he had 320/1304/9 was better than his 1998 when he had 348/1294/5. Are you seriously going to argue that that's not true? The input metric is meaningless; the output metrics are the important ones.

And yes, 1 for 80 is better than 5 for 70. If you're on the 20 yard line, one of them gets you into the end zone, the other gets you to the 10. You'd much rather your QB throw 1 pass for 80 yards than 5 passes for 70 yards, so it makes no sense to prefer a WR with 5 receptions for 70 yards over one with 1 reception for 80.
It makes no sense to prefer one over the other without context. 1/80 is not automatically better than 5/70 as neither lists touchdowns or first downs. Maybe I'm alone in this, but the three stats that mean the most to me are scores (need to score to win) and first downs (move those chains, prolong drives, keep the offense on the field) and turnovers. Unfortunately, it seems almost everyone disagrees on the value of first downs as it's really difficult to find good sources for that stat. And maybe I'm wrong on this, but from what I've seen, Wes moves the chains with the best of them.
First downs are at least an output stat, but a weak one. It's obvious that 1 reception for 30 yards (=1 first down) is better than 2 receptions for 11 yards each (=2 first downs).
No, it isn't obvious.

 
Kenny Powers said:
wdcrob said:
This is too narrow since Welker will be competing with far more players than I've included here, but I didn't think of that until after I'd already done this and I'm lazy so I'll be giving full refunds on request.

Here are the top 15 career yardage #s to date for WRs who entered the NFL from 2000-2008 (i.e. within four years of Welker on either side):

Reggie Wayne 13063Steve Smith 11452Andre Johnson 11254Chad Johnson 11059Larry Fitzgerald 10413Anquan Boldin 10170Santana Moss 9715Roddy White 8725Laveranues Coles 8609Wes Welker 8580Plaxico Burress 8499Calvin Johnson 7836Chris Chambers 7770Brandon Marshall 7768Marques Colston 7393Of those, Welker won't finish ahead of:Reggie Wayne 13063

Steve Smith 11452

Andre Johnson 11254

Larry Fitzgerald 10413

Calvin Johnson 7836

And he might not finish ahead of:

Chad Johnson 11059

Anquan Boldin 10170

Roddy White 8725

Brandon Marshall 7768

Marques Colston 7393

And TDs looks ever worse.

I'm sure the Hall of Fame voters would love to vote in a white, 'gritty' guy who played for teams with Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, but he's not even in the discussion as one of top five WRs from the narrow 'Wes Welker era'. He might not even be top 10 when all is said and done.

There's just no case to be made in his favor.
:goodposting:

This argument sort of reminds me of a few years ago when I was hearing is McNabb a HOFer. As with Welker, to me its a pretty easy "no" because while being a very good player at their positions, they were still below that elite tier even during their best 5 year stretch more often than not. McNabb isnt getting into the HOF ahead of Peyton, Brady, Favre, Warner, Brees, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, Eli, no chance at all, and that is a lot of QBs in itself to potentially go into the HOF over a ~25 year period. Welker in all likelihood has more competition and the WR position.
I am just playing devils advocate to both posts, but if we are saying that only the top 5 receivers during your era get in then there are going to be a lot of good receivers that won't get into the hall.

You could also say if there are 5 or 6 sure fire hall of fame quarterbacks, shouldn't there be like 15 to 20 receivers? Their are only 32 starting quarterbacks, you can make an argument that there is closer to 75 to 80 starting receivers

 
Kenny Powers said:
wdcrob said:
This is too narrow since Welker will be competing with far more players than I've included here, but I didn't think of that until after I'd already done this and I'm lazy so I'll be giving full refunds on request.

Here are the top 15 career yardage #s to date for WRs who entered the NFL from 2000-2008 (i.e. within four years of Welker on either side):

Reggie Wayne 13063Steve Smith 11452Andre Johnson 11254Chad Johnson 11059Larry Fitzgerald 10413Anquan Boldin 10170Santana Moss 9715Roddy White 8725Laveranues Coles 8609Wes Welker 8580Plaxico Burress 8499Calvin Johnson 7836Chris Chambers 7770Brandon Marshall 7768Marques Colston 7393Of those, Welker won't finish ahead of:Reggie Wayne 13063

Steve Smith 11452

Andre Johnson 11254

Larry Fitzgerald 10413

Calvin Johnson 7836

And he might not finish ahead of:

Chad Johnson 11059

Anquan Boldin 10170

Roddy White 8725

Brandon Marshall 7768

Marques Colston 7393

And TDs looks ever worse.

I'm sure the Hall of Fame voters would love to vote in a white, 'gritty' guy who played for teams with Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, but he's not even in the discussion as one of top five WRs from the narrow 'Wes Welker era'. He might not even be top 10 when all is said and done.

There's just no case to be made in his favor.
:goodposting:

This argument sort of reminds me of a few years ago when I was hearing is McNabb a HOFer. As with Welker, to me its a pretty easy "no" because while being a very good player at their positions, they were still below that elite tier even during their best 5 year stretch more often than not. McNabb isnt getting into the HOF ahead of Peyton, Brady, Favre, Warner, Brees, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, Eli, no chance at all, and that is a lot of QBs in itself to potentially go into the HOF over a ~25 year period. Welker in all likelihood has more competition and the WR position.
I am just playing devils advocate to both posts, but if we are saying that only the top 5 receivers during your era get in then there are going to be a lot of good receivers that won't get into the hall.

You could also say if there are 5 or 6 sure fire hall of fame quarterbacks, shouldn't there be like 15 to 20 receivers? Their are only 32 starting quarterbacks, you can make an argument that there is closer to 75 to 80 starting receivers
Eras have carryover, whether it be younger or older and there's no way to get around that. Favre and Warner's era isnt exactly the same as Peyton and Brady's era which is earlier than the Brees, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Eli era, and then there's the young guns today who have varying degrees of a shot and are a different era yet are still playing alongside those latter 6 QBs.

Same can be said for the WRs. Irvin, Brown, Carter era isnt exactly the same as Moss, Owens, Harrison era which is earlier than the Andre, Wayne, Fitz era, then you have the young studs like Dez, Julio, Demaryius, Green.

As you can see, eras have a lot of overlap, so its not as cut and dry as what you say. And I didnt necessarily mean you have to be top 5 at your position for X amount of years, but for your prime at least you should probably be dominant for some amount of time as well as having a long enough career to build your resume. Concerning your question about more WRs getting into the HOF compared to QBs, with how the game has changed I wouldnt be surprised for that to unfold that way, and Id definitely say you will start seeing more WRs getting in than RBs.

 
lod01 said:
Bri said:
Slider said:
He's a really good football player playing with two of the best QB's ever. HOF? Probably not. Just a really good player with some luck on his side.
What's that make Rice?
:lmao: The greatest ever. Rice had 1000 yard seasons with Gannon at age 39 & 40.
You weren't paying attention. WRs are discredited if they had two great QBs throwing them the ball.

 
wdcrob said:
This is too narrow since Welker will be competing with far more players than I've included here, but I didn't think of that until after I'd already done this and I'm lazy so I'll be giving full refunds on request.

Here are the top 15 career yardage #s to date for WRs who entered the NFL from 2000-2008 (i.e. within four years of Welker on either side):

Reggie Wayne 13063Steve Smith 11452Andre Johnson 11254Chad Johnson 11059Larry Fitzgerald 10413Anquan Boldin 10170Santana Moss 9715Roddy White 8725Laveranues Coles 8609Wes Welker 8580Plaxico Burress 8499Calvin Johnson 7836Chris Chambers 7770Brandon Marshall 7768Marques Colston 7393Of those, Welker won't finish ahead of:Reggie Wayne 13063

Steve Smith 11452

Andre Johnson 11254

Larry Fitzgerald 10413

Calvin Johnson 7836

And he might not finish ahead of:

Chad Johnson 11059

Anquan Boldin 10170

Roddy White 8725

Brandon Marshall 7768

Marques Colston 7393

And TDs looks ever worse.

I'm sure the Hall of Fame voters would love to vote in a white, 'gritty' guy who played for teams with Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, but he's not even in the discussion as one of top five WRs from the narrow 'Wes Welker era'. He might not even be top 10 when all is said and done.

There's just no case to be made in his favor.
This is really helpful because not more than three of those guys are likely to enter HOF. Right now I would highlight Wayne, Fitz, and Calvin (based on number of years to get to where he is).

 
Newsflash: Cam Newton also not a HOF'er yet.

Maybe wait until the player is ready, or close to being ready, to hang up the cleats before discussing.

 
Newsflash: Cam Newton also not a HOF'er yet.

Maybe wait until the player is ready, or close to being ready, to hang up the cleats before discussing.
I agree to an extent and disagree with this thread now, but Cam has a decade of football left. Welker might have 3 years.

 
wdcrob said:
Ok... there have been 26 WRs who had 800+ targets since 2002 (when the data dominator started including them)...

The first column is yards/target, the second is touchdown percentage/target and the third column is the two combined. This helps get around the problem of role in the offense. It doesn't get around the problem of QB quality at all however since the main driver of catch % is QB quality, but that's not an issue in this case since Welker's targets have overwhelmingly come from A+ QBs.

Player Y/T TD/T% TotalRandy Moss 8.27 8.61 16.88 Marques Colston 9.02 7.06 16.08 Terrell Owens 8.12 7.81 15.93 Marvin Harrison 8.30 7.31 15.61 Calvin Johnson 8.86 6.11 14.97 Plaxico Burress 7.82 6.28 14.11 Santana Moss 8.40 5.54 13.94 Hines Ward 7.99 5.86 13.85 Reggie Wayne 8.54 5.25 13.79 Larry Fitzgerald 7.83 5.71 13.54 Steve Smith 8.60 4.82 13.42 Donald Driver 8.33 5.03 13.35 Chad Johnson 8.26 5.08 13.34 Andre Johnson 8.61 4.29 12.90 Roddy White 8.05 4.81 12.86 Torry Holt 8.11 4.65 12.76 Anquan Boldin 8.01 4.65 12.66 Isaac Bruce 8.06 4.15 12.21 T.J. Houshmandz 7.47 4.69 12.17 Brandon Marshall 7.59 4.40 11.99 Muhsin Muhammad 7.53 4.45 11.98 Deion Branch 7.54 4.42 11.96 Derrick Mason 7.80 4.06 11.86 Chris Chambers 6.72 5.06 11.78 Wes Welker 7.95 3.52 11.47 Laveranues Coles 7.23 4.02 11.26 Looking at Welker with his peers, the WRs good enough to get a ton of targets, he doesn't come off very well even if you spot him the benefit of using targets (where his high catch percentage gives him a boost) instead of receptions as the denominator.
Welker does better if you look at advanced stats. He is 5th out of that group in Expected Points Added per game, and 10th in total EPA 2000-2012 (and likely to move into the top 6 after this year). Here they are sorted by EPA per game:

EPA/g EPA G Player

4.28 389.8 91 Calvin Johnson

4.20 415.8 99 Marques Colston

3.64 473.0 130 Marvin Harrison

3.37 529.7 157 Torry Holt

3.35 412.0 123 Wes Welker

3.31 589.2 178 Randy Moss

3.16 578.4 183 Reggie Wayne

2.91 454.3 156 Terrell Owens

2.82 344.4 122 Roddy White

2.79 381.7 137 Andre Johnson

2.59 445.5 172 Derrick Mason

2.55 178.8 70 Brandon Marshall

2.55 408.5 160 Steve Smith

2.44 341.7 140 Anquan Boldin

2.39 380.2 159 Chad Johnson

2.33 330.7 142 Isaac Bruce

2.30 416.6 181 Hines Ward

2.22 415.4 187 Donald Driver

1.98 285.5 144 Laveranues Coles

1.82 236.0 130 T.J. Houshmandz

1.76 291.9 166 Santana Moss

1.75 244.7 140 Larry Fitzgerald

1.63 234.1 144 Plaxico Burress

1.57 229.5 146 Muhsin Muhammad

1.41 142.7 101 Deion Branch

1.05 150.7 143 Chris Chambers

Welker's yards per target weren't that great, but his success rate is the highest on the list: when Welker is thrown the ball, it's a good play for the offense more than 60% of the time (where "good play" means an increase in the offense's expected points).

If you go by DYAR, Welker is in the 12th-15th range among WRs who debuted in 1991 or later (depending how you run the calculation).

His 2011 season was the kind of year that you'd like to see from Hall of Famers: 2nd in the NFL in receiving yards, 1st in Expected Points Added, 4th in DYAR, and a first-team All Pro. His 2009 was up there too: 2nd in receiving yards (despite only playing 14 games), 7th in Expected Points Added (4th in EPA/game), 3rd in DYAR, and first-team All Pro. In 2007 he was only 11th in receiving yards, but he was 2nd in EPA and 4th in DYAR (thanks in large part to a league-leading 67.3% success rate), although he didn't make the Pro Bowl that year.

So far he has 5 Pro Bowls and 2 All Pros.

I wouldn't put him in the Hall if he retired tomorrow, but he will deserve to be in the discussion as one of the most productive wide receivers of his generation.

(Also: damn, Marques Colston.)

 
I started thinking about this today. Welker is on pace for 24 TD this season, he might not reach that but 15+ looks very likely in this offense, he already has 5 PB and 2 All Pro under his belt, assume he makes All Pro again this season and add 35-40 TD to his totals with manning throwing it to him for the next 3 seasons. Add another 300 receptions and you get numbers around 1,100 receptions, 80+ TD which no one thought he would hit but now is in a TD heavy system. He will have 3 or 4 of the highest reception totals of any receiver ever. How about a Super Bowl ring with Denver to top it off? Would that be enough for him to make it in? I think he might and if he does really well in Denver, a SB ring, he might go in as a Bronco before it is all over.

 
Ministry of Pain said:
I started thinking about this today. Welker is on pace for 24 TD this season, he might not reach that but 15+ looks very likely in this offense, he already has 5 PB and 2 All Pro under his belt, assume he makes All Pro again this season and add 35-40 TD to his totals with manning throwing it to him for the next 3 seasons. Add another 300 receptions and you get numbers around 1,100 receptions, 80+ TD which no one thought he would hit but now is in a TD heavy system. He will have 3 or 4 of the highest reception totals of any receiver ever. How about a Super Bowl ring with Denver to top it off? Would that be enough for him to make it in? I think he might and if he does really well in Denver, a SB ring, he might go in as a Bronco before it is all over.
Welker's only signed in Denver for 2 years.

 
Ministry of Pain said:
I started thinking about this today. Welker is on pace for 24 TD this season, he might not reach that but 15+ looks very likely in this offense, he already has 5 PB and 2 All Pro under his belt, assume he makes All Pro again this season and add 35-40 TD to his totals with manning throwing it to him for the next 3 seasons. Add another 300 receptions and you get numbers around 1,100 receptions, 80+ TD which no one thought he would hit but now is in a TD heavy system. He will have 3 or 4 of the highest reception totals of any receiver ever. How about a Super Bowl ring with Denver to top it off? Would that be enough for him to make it in? I think he might and if he does really well in Denver, a SB ring, he might go in as a Bronco before it is all over.
Nobody "goes in" as a member of a team.

 
Definitely not a HOFer. Little guys like that who just catch quick slants over the middle never make it.

 

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