Wes Welker to Walk? (1 Viewer)

[amicsta]

It's looking more and more likely that Wes Welker will not be back with the Patriots next season. Per rotoworld:

Someone with "intimate knowledge of the team’s thinking" tells Boston Herald columnist Ron Borges the Patriots won't use the franchise tag on free agent Wes Welker.It means there's a strong chance Welker will walk, as it's highly doubtful the frugal Patriots would be Welker's top bidder on the open market. Welker would be due $11.4 if franchise tagged for the second consecutive season. That's hardly a burdensome sum for someone with Welker's track record, but steep for a team with a top-heavy cap situation. The Pats have two weeks to change their mind with regards to Tom Brady's security blanket, but there's little reason to believe they will.

My question is: who is the replacement for Welker? Is it someone in house? Do they go get a cheap option (cap room clearly being an issue)? Draft a player? Or does this just mean a bigger piece of the pie for Lloyd, Hernandez, and Gronkowski. The follow up question: Does this mean that they will change the way they run their offense (ie more runs, more deep passes, etc)? Interested to see the shark pool's thoughts on both of these things and anything else worth discussing with respect to this topic.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

as of right now his replacement is basically hernandez, but I'm sure we'll see some wr added if welker doesn't sign.edelman is also fa, so maybe they re-sign him --- we'll see.edit: and if they lose welker it wouldn't surprise me to see lloyd get more targets.

 

[Sabertooth]

Welcome to Boston, Mr. Harvin.

 

[BeTheMatch]

The speculation has been that Lloyd is gone too.

 

[Concept Coop]

Shouldn't the Patriots be stocked to use the franchise tag on an older WR? The $11M isn't too much more than they would pay him per year, over 3 years, with much less risk. And the Patiot offense plays 2+ slot options on most plays. Gronk and Hernandez already play the slot more than they don't, so I don't too much will change, in that regard. They'll bring a slot WR in and continue running the offense as they have. Hernandez is a mismatch in the slot in different ways that Welker is. I think they'll still want both. I don't see a major increase in production for Hernandez if Welker does indeed walk.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

The speculation has been that Lloyd is gone too.

that speculation is just because of his contract, as he's due a 3m option bonus this year, so he'd be a 5m wr with a ~2.5 cap savings if cut.I'm not sure where they would find a cheaper option if both he and welker (and edelman?) were gone.wouldn't be the first time the pats have surprised me, though.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Shouldn't the Patriots be stocked to use the franchise tag on an older WR? The $11M isn't too much more than they would pay him per year, over 3 years, with much less risk. And the Patiot offense plays 2+ slot options on most plays. Gronk and Hernandez already play the slot more than they don't, so I don't too much will change, in that regard. They'll bring a slot WR in and continue running the offense as they have. Hernandez is a mismatch in the slot in different ways that Welker is. I think they'll still want both. I don't see a major increase in production for Hernandez if Welker does indeed walk.

they're probably at around 15m cap space, right now, so 11m would be a pretty big chunk of that.they could possibly squeeze some extra out of a few guys, but their needs in the secondary are probably a bigger issue than welker.

 

[Concept Coop]

they're probably at around 15m cap space, right now, so 11m would be a pretty big chunk of that.they could possibly squeeze some extra out of a few guys, but their needs in the secondary are probably a bigger issue than welker.

Any word on the per/yr number they're trying to get Welker to agree to?

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Welcome to Boston, Mr. Harvin.

I'd be kind of surprised if they gave up a second (or whatever) for what's likely to be a one year rental.I think in 2014 they start to get a little tight on cap, so you'd really rather have a rookie contract than the option of tagging some guy for 10m.

 

[tdmills]

Tavon Austin

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

they're probably at around 15m cap space, right now, so 11m would be a pretty big chunk of that.they could possibly squeeze some extra out of a few guys, but their needs in the secondary are probably a bigger issue than welker.

Any word on the per/yr number they're trying to get Welker to agree to?

they supposedly have made wes offers in the past, and just from memory, I think it was something in the 6-8m per range, although I don't usually pay much attention to that stuff.it remains to be seen if he really leaves, as I'm a little skeptical some team will be throwing top wr money at him, and if it's close, you'd think he'd stay in new england.

 

[Concept Coop]

they supposedly have made wes offers in the past, and just from memory, I think it was something in the 6-8m per range, although I don't usually pay much attention to that stuff.it remains to be seen if he really leaves, as I'm a little skeptical some team will be throwing top wr money at him, and if it's close, you'd think he'd stay in new england.

Wow; 6-8 seems really low. Originally I would have said I would be shocked to see them let Welker walk and not tag him. But it has been their MO with every but Brady.

 

[menobrown]

My question is: who is the replacement for Welker? Is it someone in house?

I believe what I've believed all year, it's going to be a combo of Hernandez/Edelman. I understand Edelman has to be resigned but he won't cost much, at least not one a one year deal. I think Hernandez/Edelman can do the job but the biggest concern with both of them is they struggle to stay on the field and you could not keep Welker off of it.I also think we'll see Ballard involved heavily and the Pat's utilize 3 TE formations. Hernandez will be even less of a standard TE than he was before.As for Lloyd I don't think he's safe from release or demotion. No one is as good in the slot as Welker but I think this team has the pieces to compensate for his loss and more to the point I think they've been prepping for it. Lloyd on the other hand I think they hoped would be their answer to the deep threat they need and he's come up short. My opinion is the biggest priority this team will have at WR is trying to bring in someone who can stretch the field vertically.Forget Amendola. If they wanted to pay a slot WR they'd pay Welker.

 

[amicsta]

My question is: who is the replacement for Welker? Is it someone in house?

I believe what I've believed all year, it's going to be a combo of Hernandez/Edelman. I understand Edelman has to be resigned but he won't cost much, at least not one a one year deal. I think Hernandez/Edelman can do the job but the biggest concern with both of them is they struggle to stay on the field and you could not keep Welker off of it.I also think we'll see Ballard involved heavily and the Pat's utilize 3 TE formations. Hernandez will be even less of a standard TE than he was before.

As for Lloyd I don't think he's safe from release or demotion. No one is as good in the slot as Welker but I think this team has the pieces to compensate for his loss and more to the point I think they've been prepping for it. Lloyd on the other hand I think they hoped would be their answer to the deep threat they need and he's come up short. My opinion is the biggest priority this team will have at WR is trying to bring in someone who can stretch the field vertically.

Forget Amendola. If they wanted to pay a slot WR they'd pay Welker.

I lean towards this part of what you said. Not a huge beleiver in Ballard. He'll get some run, but I wouldn't expect to see "heavy" usage of 3TE formations. I think Lloyd gets a lot of unfair criticism too. While statistically he didn't dominate the field, he clearly had a positive impact on their offense. They led the league in scoring after all.

 

[menobrown]

they supposedly have made wes offers in the past, and just from memory, I think it was something in the 6-8m per range, although I don't usually pay much attention to that stuff.it remains to be seen if he really leaves, as I'm a little skeptical some team will be throwing top wr money at him, and if it's close, you'd think he'd stay in new england.

Wow; 6-8 seems really low. Originally I would have said I would be shocked to see them let Welker walk and not tag him. But it has been their MO with every but Brady.

I had read they had previously offered him a 2 year $16 million deal. That was prior to last season so not sure they'd even offer that again or do so in manner where they could not cut Welker in a year if they see decline.I've no doubt Welker is hitting Free Agency and never did because I knew they were not going to franchise him for $11million. I still don't think it's a given he leaves but I'm leaning that way. From everything I've heard and read they just can't agree on his value and are willing to let the market set his value. Maybe the market blows them away and they let him go. I think one negative to Welker was Bill O'Brien and Josh Mcdaniels not leaving for head coaching jobs in the NFL. I thought that would have really opened up his market. He's kind of a unique WR in that some view him as a system guy and teams in general don't spend crazy money on 31 year old pure slot guys but than again no one has probably ever been better at it than Welker.

 

[amicsta]

they supposedly have made wes offers in the past, and just from memory, I think it was something in the 6-8m per range, although I don't usually pay much attention to that stuff.it remains to be seen if he really leaves, as I'm a little skeptical some team will be throwing top wr money at him, and if it's close, you'd think he'd stay in new england.

Wow; 6-8 seems really low. Originally I would have said I would be shocked to see them let Welker walk and not tag him. But it has been their MO with every but Brady.

I had read they had previously offered him a 2 year $16 million deal. That was prior to last season so not sure they'd even offer that again or do so in manner where they could not cut Welker in a year if they see decline.I've no doubt Welker is hitting Free Agency and never did because I knew they were not going to franchise him for $11million. I still don't think it's a given he leaves but I'm leaning that way. From everything I've heard and read they just can't agree on his value and are willing to let the market set his value. Maybe the market blows them away and they let him go. I think one negative to Welker was Bill O'Brien and Josh Mcdaniels not leaving for head coaching jobs in the NFL. I thought that would have really opened up his market. He's kind of a unique WR in that some view him as a system guy and teams in general don't spend crazy money on 31 year old pure slot guys but than again no one has probably ever been better at it than Welker.

Not sure how much cap room Denver has, but that'd be an interesting fit.

 

[bostonfred]

Imagine a no huddle with harvin, vereen, and three tes on the field. What defensive package would you want in there?

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Imagine a no huddle with harvin, vereen, and three tes on the field. What defensive package would you want in there?

A good pass rush that can get to brady with 4 guys like NYG

 

[Concept Coop]

Imagine a no huddle with harvin, vereen, and three tes on the field. What defensive package would you want in there?

We've pretty much just replaced Welker for Harvin. I don't know that Harvin is much of an upgrade, based on how the Pats used Welker.

 

[cstu]

The speculation has been that Lloyd is gone too.

that speculation is just because of his contract, as he's due a 3m option bonus this year, so he'd be a 5m wr with a ~2.5 cap savings if cut.I'm not sure where they would find a cheaper option if both he and welker (and edelman?) were gone.

wouldn't be the first time the pats have surprised me, though.

If DHB is cut he would be cheaper and provide a better deep threat than Lloyd.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Imagine a no huddle with harvin, vereen, and three tes on the field. What defensive package would you want in there?

now imagine peterson in there instead of vereen.keep your eyes closed --- imagine dalton has welker in the slot with aj on the outside.or, imagine miami steals him back, or luck is throwing to him.

 

[massraider]

The speculation has been that Lloyd is gone too.

that speculation is just because of his contract, as he's due a 3m option bonus this year, so he'd be a 5m wr with a ~2.5 cap savings if cut.I'm not sure where they would find a cheaper option if both he and welker (and edelman?) were gone.

wouldn't be the first time the pats have surprised me, though.

If DHB is cut he would be cheaper and provide a better deep threat than Lloyd.

Have you ever seen DHB catch a bomb?

 

[bostonfred]

Imagine a no huddle with harvin, vereen, and three tes on the field. What defensive package would you want in there?

We've pretty much just replaced Welker for Harvin. I don't know that Harvin is much of an upgrade, based on how the Pats used Welker.

Its the running game. Harvin, vereen and hernandez can all run the ball effectively. Vereen can split wide and they can go 4 or 5 wide, or max protect, or double screen, or te seam, or pretty much any combination they want to create mismatches. and with the no huddle/hurry up, you need to decide on a defensive package on first down and stick with it. Seems like a perfect fit for the versatile schemes the pats covet.

 

[cstu]

The speculation has been that Lloyd is gone too.

that speculation is just because of his contract, as he's due a 3m option bonus this year, so he'd be a 5m wr with a ~2.5 cap savings if cut.I'm not sure where they would find a cheaper option if both he and welker (and edelman?) were gone.

wouldn't be the first time the pats have surprised me, though.

If DHB is cut he would be cheaper and provide a better deep threat than Lloyd.

Have you ever seen DHB catch a bomb?

Did Palmer even throw a pass over 20 yards last year?

 

[Concept Coop]

Its the running game. Harvin, vereen and hernandez can all run the ball effectively. Vereen can split wide and they can go 4 or 5 wide, or max protect, or double screen, or te seam, or pretty much any combination they want to create mismatches. and with the no huddle/hurry up, you need to decide on a defensive package on first down and stick with it. Seems like a perfect fit for the versatile schemes the pats covet.

Hernandez had one carry this year. Vereen and Harvin would essentially tip their had before the play; I don't see them running any option with Brady at QB. Vereen is only a mismatch against linebackers. Aside from that, again, they could do all these things last year too. And did. I personally just don't see much more to worry about here, than in the 2012 offense with Vereen or Woodhead playing RB/Slot. Not that it is important or matters, just my thoughts.

 

[Anarchy99]

Imagine a no huddle with harvin, vereen, and three tes on the field. What defensive package would you want in there?

A good pass rush that can get to brady with 4 guys like NYG

Ballard goes 6'6" 275. Gronk 6'6" 265. Hernandez 6'1" 245. I'm guessing leaving one or two of those guys in to block would leave Brady with ample time to throw the football. Or they could run the football.

 

[domvin]

Their free agent money is allocated to signing Sebatian Vollmer I'd have to think.They just don't sign aging stars to big long term deals....and any player that tries to force their hand, usually gets cut or traded(Seymour)They will sign Edelman to a cheap deal, and then it's anyones guess-rookie wr, cheap aging veteran.Moss burned his bridge there.....And Amendola is supposedly asking 10 million per year from St Louis. I can't see that happening in NE....

 

[Concept Coop]

And Amendola is supposedly asking 10 million per year from St Louis. I can't see that happening in NE....

 

[Otis]

Hernandez is going to have a monster season. TE1

 

[Concept Coop]

Hernandez is going to have a monster season. TE1

He's already in the slot a ton. What is going to change?

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Hernandez is going to have a monster season. TE1

He's already in the slot a ton. What is going to change?

Targets? If he can stay healthy, I could see it. I just don't see him being able to compete with the TD potential of Gronk/Graham though.

 

[Concept Coop]

Hernandez is going to have a monster season. TE1

He's already in the slot a ton. What is going to change?

Targets? If he can stay healthy, I could see it. I just don't see him being able to compete with the TD potential of Gronk/Graham though.

Losing Welker and not replacing him with a like player is a pretty major change to that offense; I just don't see it.I could see him getting more targets, but I don't think losing Welker is the plus most seem to. They are used differently from the slot and are different mismatches for defenses.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

I'll be pretty surprised if he doesn't re-sign. He's almost 32. He isn't as valuable to any other team as he is to NE, he has a chance to win a championship there, and will still be a featured player. He's just trying to scrounge a bigger deal out of NE.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Hernandez is going to have a monster season. TE1

He's already in the slot a ton. What is going to change?

Targets? If he can stay healthy, I could see it. I just don't see him being able to compete with the TD potential of Gronk/Graham though.

he actually gets a lot more red/endzone targets than you might think.I thought I'd check out some numbers on these guys.

hernandez sprained his ankle in week 2, I believe, then maybe came back a little early in week 6 and sprained it again.

I'll total up week 1 and his last 7 weeks (including playoffs), for an 8 game total.

86 tgts

53 catches

531 yds

4 td

those last 7 games were pretty much minus gronk, but were comparable to any top 3 guy, outside of gronk's td/game average.

I don't think you can really get a good look at the red/endzone numbers, as hernandez played the second half without gronk, while gronk played the first half without hernandez, but I looked at the 2011 numbers for a post this past summer, and hernandez did very well there.

I dug up my post

Posted 13 August 2012 - 03:47 PM

never got around to logs, but I'll steal this from Ian Logue

http://www.patsfans.com/ian/blog/2012/08/13/inside-the-numbers-a-look-at-the-patriots-red-zone-production-last-season/

I did a little more digging thanks to a post on our messageboard and noticed that when the Patriots got inside the 5 yard line, that’s where they definitely weren’t at their best throwing the football. Brady’s completion percentage drops to 45% after the veteran QB was just 14-of-31 for 32 yards, while throwing 12 touchdowns and one interception.

The receiving leaders down that close were Aaron Hernandez (12 targets, 5 receptions, 10 yards and 4 touchdowns, Deion Branch (7 targets, 4 receptions, 9 yards and 4 touchdowns), Wes Welker (3 targets, 2 receptions, 7 yards and 2 touchdowns) and Rob Gronkowski (5 targets, 2 receptions, 6 yards and 2 touchdowns).

here are the welker snaps by week1 - 63% (5 tgts 3/14/0)

2 - 78%

3-6 ~90%

7 - 79%

8 - 68%

10+ ~90+%

week 1 was about the only week of the year we had all 3 of welker, gronk, and hernandez on the field healthy at the same time for a full set of snaps.

edit: I checked out redzone tgts, and hernandez was about equal to gronk, while both were probably double graham on a per game basis.

 

[The Comedian]

Please stop with the Harvin talk. Waste of time.

 

[massraider]

The speculation has been that Lloyd is gone too.

that speculation is just because of his contract, as he's due a 3m option bonus this year, so he'd be a 5m wr with a ~2.5 cap savings if cut.I'm not sure where they would find a cheaper option if both he and welker (and edelman?) were gone.

wouldn't be the first time the pats have surprised me, though.

If DHB is cut he would be cheaper and provide a better deep threat than Lloyd.

Have you ever seen DHB catch a bomb?

He did. But he tended to throw it to guys that got open deep. DHB doesn't. He has improved as a receiver, but he doesn't play remotely as fast as his combine time. Nice kid. Not a deep threat.

 

[Tanner9919]

Welker has a lot of mileage on his soon to be 32 yr old legs, not sure other teams are willing to spend that kind of money on him.my guess is the free agent market will be lukewarm towards him, at best.. the Pats ,IMO, have intended to re-sign him all along,but they want to see what the market puts his value at..if he gets a big money offer,they let him walk..he'd be great in SF taking pressure off of Crabtree, or GB , Jets could surely use him, N.O., etc..

 

[FUBAR]

Welker has a lot of mileage on his soon to be 32 yr old legs, not sure other teams are willing to spend that kind of money on him.my guess is the free agent market will be lukewarm towards him, at best.. the Pats ,IMO, have intended to re-sign him all along,but they want to see what the market puts his value at..if he gets a big money offer,they let him walk..he'd be great in SF taking pressure off of Crabtree, or GB , Jets could surely use him, N.O., etc..

NO would be perfect. Maybe even better than he was in NE. Don't see it happening though.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Welker has a lot of mileage on his soon to be 32 yr old legs, not sure other teams are willing to spend that kind of money on him.my guess is the free agent market will be lukewarm towards him, at best.. the Pats ,IMO, have intended to re-sign him all along,but they want to see what the market puts his value at..if he gets a big money offer,they let him walk..he'd be great in SF taking pressure off of Crabtree, or GB , Jets could surely use him, N.O., etc..

Jets can't afford him and NO has a Welker-lite in Lance Moore already. SF would be a great landing spot for him and I could see a few other teams throwing some money at him like Detroit (although they are up against the cap), Seattle, Kansas City, Cleveland, Tampa Bay and perhaps even Denver.

 

[Skeletore Eh]

Welker has a lot of mileage on his soon to be 32 yr old legs, not sure other teams are willing to spend that kind of money on him.my guess is the free agent market will be lukewarm towards him, at best.. the Pats ,IMO, have intended to re-sign him all along,but they want to see what the market puts his value at..if he gets a big money offer,they let him walk..he'd be great in SF taking pressure off of Crabtree, or GB , Jets could surely use him, N.O., etc..

NO would be perfect. Maybe even better than he was in NE. Don't see it happening though.

Or Denver. That would be absurd if they added welker to dt and decker.

 

[Anarchy99]

It only takes one team to pay what a player wants, and I believe there will be an NFL team that will give Welker close to what he wants. It will come down to whether Welker is more in it for the money than playing on a team with a legit chance to win (whether that be NE or another team).

 

[Boston]

*Welker would be a huge loss for the Pats...because he is small and white he is taken for granted...he puts up 100+ catches every year and many of those catches involve taking a lot of punishment...he is Brady's binky and I'm not sure he can be replaced...I really like Edelman but I don't see him being able to handle the pounding Welker's role takes...Amendola makes sense but if he's looking for big money that's not going to happen...*The beauty of Hernandez is he can line-up anywhere...if he gets more of a defined role that will take away some of his effectiveness to the offense...the guy creates mismatches but if you know he's going to line-up a ton in the slot it will be easier to game-plan for him...*While I love Welker and want him re-signed one of the reasons the Pats have remained as a high-caliber team for the past decade plus is they tend to let guys walk earlier rather than later...it can suck as you see guys you really like leave but this philosophy has worked for the most part...this one is beyond risky though...there is a long history of veteran and rookie WRs who have gone to the Pats and absolutely flopped...right now their current WR unit is very thin to begin with and losing Welker means they will have to add at least three new guys which means there is a lot of room for error...*Welker would be a huge weapon to any team that is close...he would add another dimension to a team like San Fran, New Orleans, Denver, Atlanta, Chicago, Houston or Seattle...it only takes one team to make a big offer and I would be very surprised if Welker doesn't get a substantial offer if he hits the open-market...

 

[Dr. Octopus]

*Welker would be a huge weapon to any team that is close...he would add another dimension to a team like San Fran, New Orleans, Denver, Atlanta, Chicago, Houston or Seattle...it only takes one team to make a big offer and I would be very surprised if Welker doesn't get a substantial offer if he hits the open-market...

That's an interesting option as well - more from an NFL than fantasy persepctive, but it surely wouldn't kill his fantasy value either.

 

[Boston]

*Welker would be a huge weapon to any team that is close...he would add another dimension to a team like San Fran, New Orleans, Denver, Atlanta, Chicago, Houston or Seattle...it only takes one team to make a big offer and I would be very surprised if Welker doesn't get a substantial offer if he hits the open-market...

That's an interesting option as well - more from an NFL than fantasy persepctive, but it surely wouldn't kill his fantasy value either.

Welker is a player who's fantasy and real football value should go hand-in-hand...the bottomline is he is a reception machine and if you give him big money and he doesn't get you 100+ catches you may not have spent your money wisely or brought him into the right offense...

 

[Tackling Dummies]

Welker has a lot of mileage on his soon to be 32 yr old legs, not sure other teams are willing to spend that kind of money on him.my guess is the free agent market will be lukewarm towards him, at best.. the Pats ,IMO, have intended to re-sign him all along,but they want to see what the market puts his value at..if he gets a big money offer,they let him walk..he'd be great in SF taking pressure off of Crabtree, or GB , Jets could surely use him, N.O., etc..

NO would be perfect. Maybe even better than he was in NE. Don't see it happening though.

NO is not in position to sign Welker, they need to cut/re-do deals to get under the cap.

 

[Carl Eller's Dead Liver]

It's looking more and more likely that Wes Welker will not be back with the Patriots next season. Per rotoworld:

Someone with "intimate knowledge of the team’s thinking" tells Boston Herald columnist Ron Borges the Patriots won't use the franchise tag on free agent Wes Welker.It means there's a strong chance Welker will walk, as it's highly doubtful the frugal Patriots would be Welker's top bidder on the open market. Welker would be due $11.4 if franchise tagged for the second consecutive season. That's hardly a burdensome sum for someone with Welker's track record, but steep for a team with a top-heavy cap situation. The Pats have two weeks to change their mind with regards to Tom Brady's security blanket, but there's little reason to believe they will.

My question is: who is the replacement for Welker? Is it someone in house? Do they go get a cheap option (cap room clearly being an issue)? Draft a player? Or does this just mean a bigger piece of the pie for Lloyd, Hernandez, and Gronkowski. The follow up question: Does this mean that they will change the way they run their offense (ie more runs, more deep passes, etc)? Interested to see the shark pool's thoughts on both of these things and anything else worth discussing with respect to this topic.

Insert Percy Harvin. A MAJOR upgrade. Yes, I said it. MAJOR upgrade!

 

[DropKick]

It only takes one team to pay what a player wants, and I believe there will be an NFL team that will give Welker close to what he wants. It will come down to whether Welker is more in it for the money than playing on a team with a legit chance to win (whether that be NE or another team).

I think the loss of Welker would hurt NE. Other than the TEs, they really haven't done a good job of integrating WRs into that offense.I think Welker (like most guys) would take the big payday. But who knows? Maybe he is comfortable with the Pats? Maybe his time in Miami was frustrating? As someone else said, will somebody pony up (yes, bronco pun) for a 32 year old receiver with mileage? This one will be fun to watch.

 

[cstu]

It only takes one team to pay what a player wants, and I believe there will be an NFL team that will give Welker close to what he wants. It will come down to whether Welker is more in it for the money than playing on a team with a legit chance to win (whether that be NE or another team).

I think the loss of Welker would hurt NE. Other than the TEs, they really haven't done a good job of integrating WRs into that offense.I think Welker (like most guys) would take the big payday. But who knows? Maybe he is comfortable with the Pats? Maybe his time in Miami was frustrating? As someone else said, will somebody pony up (yes, bronco pun) for a 32 year old receiver with mileage? This one will be fun to watch.

IMO it's best for both Welker and the Pats for him to stay. While Welker could get more money elsewhere he should be able to get very good money from the Pats. 5 years/$45M with $25M guaranteed (basically a little less than $30M for 3 years) seems like a deal that could work for everybody.

 

[The Comedian]

*While I love Welker and want him re-signed one of the reasons the Pats have remained as a high-caliber team for the past decade plus is they tend to let guys walk earlier rather than later...it can suck as you see guys you really like leave but this philosophy has worked for the most part...

I agree that it has worked for the most part, but I also believe that letting Deion Branch go cost them a SB. I'll overpay here and there to not have to watch them try and win an AFC championship game with Reche freaking Caldwell as the #1 receiver.

 

[Boston]

*While I love Welker and want him re-signed one of the reasons the Pats have remained as a high-caliber team for the past decade plus is they tend to let guys walk earlier rather than later...it can suck as you see guys you really like leave but this philosophy has worked for the most part...

I agree that it has worked for the most part, but I also believe that letting Deion Branch go cost them a SB. I'll overpay here and there to not have to watch them try and win an AFC championship game with Reche freaking Caldwell as the #1 receiver.

This one was a little different because of the timing and the fact that Branch wasn't a free agent or at an age where you are worried about regression...Branch held-out and because of this the Pats were put in a situation where they could not replace him properly as the draft and the meat of free agency had already passed...so while I do agree that losing Branch hurt the Pats that year he was absolutely not worth the contract Seattle gave him and the Pats made a great trade for him...