Wes Welker (1 Viewer)

[dansav]

143 set by Marvin Harrison in 2002..

Welker has 6 games remaining and is sitting with 79 catches. Looks like he is averaging 9.8 catches a game. He could easily be at the 100 mark for catches if he didn't miss 2 games earlier in the year. That would be very impressive to be at 100 catches with 6 games to go.

So Welker would need to average 10.6 the rest of the way to beat Harrison.. Can it be done?

 

[zamboni]

It's too bad he missed those early games, but I think he falls a bit short. A 10 reception-a-game pace is going to be awfully tough to maintain - game situation may come into effect.

That said, if he's within striking distance, I think Belicheck will do his best to get him the record - even if the Pats have their playoff situation locked up.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Welker is averaging 9.88 receptions per game, the most in NFL history. If he gets 47 receptions over his last six games -- 7.833 per game -- he'll break the record for most receptions/game in a season (set by Harrison in '02, 8.94).

Welker (9.88 now) and Harrison (8.94) are the only players to ever top 8.0 receptions/g in a season; the only players with 7.5 receptions per game in a year are Rod Smith (7.53, 2001), Reggie Wayne (7.60, 2009, current of course), Jerry Rice ('95, 7.63), Cris Carter ('94, '95, 7.63 both seasons), Lionel Taylor (7.67, 1960) and Herman Moore (7.69, 1995.

Averaging 10.7 the rest of the way to tie Harrison for most receptions in a year seems unlikely, but he's got a great chance to set the record (or come close) for R/G in a season.

 

[Zoomanji]

143 set by Marvin Harrison in 2002..

Welker has 6 games remaining and is sitting with 79 catches. Looks like he is averaging 9.8 catches a game. He could easily be at the 100 mark for catches if he didn't miss 2 games earlier in the year. That would be very impressive to be at 100 catches with 6 games to go.

So Welker would need to average 10.6 the rest of the way to beat Harrison.. Can it be done?

It canI think you want to know if it will be done

I vote no, I think he comes up short after missing the 2 games earlier in the year

 

[Bankerguy]

My fav pick in the 35K contest.

 

[grateful zed]

wes

 

[djcolts]

Yes because I think the Pats will be fighting with the Chargers for the bye - so he needs to play every game.

 

[Clifton]

Pretty sure he's the league MVP at this point.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Pretty sure he's the league MVP at this point.

Stinky bait.

 

[grateful zed]

Pretty sure he's the league MVP at this point.

favre

 

[Boston]

One of the more amazing things about Welker is the amount of hits he takes on so many of his receptions. Many of his routes are over the middle and no one is giving him a break. Yesterday was an example of the punishment his body takes yet more often than not he pops right up and makes another reception. Brady was dead on when he compared Welker to a Labrador Retriever...he goes and gets the ball, brings it back and goes out and gets it again.

 

[dgreen]

It's too bad he missed those early games, but I think he falls a bit short. A 10 reception-a-game pace is going to be awfully tough to maintain - game situation may come into effect.That said, if he's within striking distance, I think Belicheck will do his best to get him the record - even if the Pats have their playoff situation locked up.

My first thought was that "game situation" could lead to him not being able to break this record. But, this is a team that was up 17 points with 30 seconds left in the game this Sunday and threw a deep ball to Moss.

 

[Clifton]

Pretty sure he's the league MVP at this point.

Stinky bait.

How so? The guy moves the chains, leads the league in receptions and is 4th in receiving yards...after missing games. He's a superstud. Without Welker I'm not sure where NE would be.

 

[Anarchy99]

Pretty sure he's the league MVP at this point.

Stinky bait.

How so? The guy moves the chains, leads the league in receptions and is 4th in receiving yards...after missing games. He's a superstud. Without Welker I'm not sure where NE would be.

How many WR have won the official MVP award? Answer: none.

 

[dgreen]

Pretty sure he's the league MVP at this point.

Stinky bait.

How so? The guy moves the chains, leads the league in receptions and is 4th in receiving yards...after missing games. He's a superstud. Without Welker I'm not sure where NE would be.

WRs win MVP awards all the time, so he's got a great shot!

 

[PatsFanCT]

It's too bad he missed those early games, but I think he falls a bit short. A 10 reception-a-game pace is going to be awfully tough to maintain - game situation may come into effect.That said, if he's within striking distance, I think Belicheck will do his best to get him the record - even if the Pats have their playoff situation locked up.

My first thought was that "game situation" could lead to him not being able to break this record. But, this is a team that was up 17 points with 30 seconds left in the game this Sunday and threw a deep ball to Moss.

So on 3rd and 6 you want them to punt? Sanchez threw deep with 16 seconds left. Then did it again with 5.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Pretty sure he's the league MVP at this point.

Stinky bait.

How so? The guy moves the chains, leads the league in receptions and is 4th in receiving yards...after missing games. He's a superstud. Without Welker I'm not sure where NE would be.

How many WR have won the official MVP award? Answer: none.

There is no official MVP award. The AP award is the most popular, at least in modern times, but it wasn't always the most popular or most respected.Jerry Rice ('87, '90) won three NFL MVPs, the Bert Bell Award in '90 and the NEA and PFWA MVP in '87.

Before him, Pete Retzlaff as a tight end (although he played some WR) won the BBA in '65.

Gino Cappelletti, longtime Pats broadcaster, won the UPI MVP and the AP POY award (the MVP of the AFL was given this award from the AP while the MVP from the NFL was given the AP MVP). He won the award as a hybrid WR-kicker.

Lenny Moore won the '64 NEA MVP; Moore was a hybrid RB/WR, although by the end of his career (which is when he won the award), he was more of a RB than a flanker.

Lance Alworth won the UPI MVP in '63.

In the pre-merger era, Frank Gifford won the NEA and UPI MVP in '56; like Moore, he was a hybrid, although he was mostly a RB earlier in his career (which is when he won the award)

Harlon Hill was a true WR, and he won the NEA MVP in '55; his best season was probably '54 or '56, but he won the MVP in '55 on a Bears team that went 8-1 down the stretch. The NEA starting naming MVPs in '55, otherwise he might have won the award in '54 as well.

Finally, Don Hutson won the MVP in '41 and '42, and of course deservedly so. It was the Joe F. Carr trophy back then.

But no, Welker is not going to win any NFL MVP awards this season. He may not even earn a first-team All-Pro honor.

 

[switz]

143 set by Marvin Harrison in 2002..Welker has 6 games remaining and is sitting with 79 catches. Looks like he is averaging 9.8 catches a game. He could easily be at the 100 mark for catches if he didn't miss 2 games earlier in the year. That would be very impressive to be at 100 catches with 6 games to go.So Welker would need to average 10.6 the rest of the way to beat Harrison.. Can it be done?

He needs 64 catches, its not going to happen IMO.

 

[dgreen]

It's too bad he missed those early games, but I think he falls a bit short. A 10 reception-a-game pace is going to be awfully tough to maintain - game situation may come into effect.That said, if he's within striking distance, I think Belicheck will do his best to get him the record - even if the Pats have their playoff situation locked up.

My first thought was that "game situation" could lead to him not being able to break this record. But, this is a team that was up 17 points with 30 seconds left in the game this Sunday and threw a deep ball to Moss.

So on 3rd and 6 you want them to punt? Sanchez threw deep with 16 seconds left. Then did it again with 5.

Someone's a little sensitive.

 

[switz]

One of the more amazing things about Welker is the amount of hits he takes on so many of his receptions. Many of his routes are over the middle and no one is giving him a break. Yesterday was an example of the punishment his body takes yet more often than not he pops right up and makes another reception. Brady was dead on when he compared Welker to a Labrador Retriever...he goes and gets the ball, brings it back and goes out and gets it again.

Didn't he miss time earlier this year? Seems to me he might have a short career playing this way.

 

[Anarchy99]

Pretty sure he's the league MVP at this point.

Stinky bait.

How so? The guy moves the chains, leads the league in receptions and is 4th in receiving yards...after missing games. He's a superstud. Without Welker I'm not sure where NE would be.

How many WR have won the official MVP award? Answer: none.

There is no official MVP award. The AP award is the most popular, at least in modern times, but it wasn't always the most popular or most respected.Jerry Rice ('87, '90) won three NFL MVPs, the Bert Bell Award in '90 and the NEA and PFWA MVP in '87.

Before him, Pete Retzlaff as a tight end (although he played some WR) won the BBA in '65.

Gino Cappelletti, longtime Pats broadcaster, won the UPI MVP and the AP POY award (the MVP of the AFL was given this award from the AP while the MVP from the NFL was given the AP MVP). He won the award as a hybrid WR-kicker.

Lenny Moore won the '64 NEA MVP; Moore was a hybrid RB/WR, although by the end of his career (which is when he won the award), he was more of a RB than a flanker.

Lance Alworth won the UPI MVP in '63.

In the pre-merger era, Frank Gifford won the NEA and UPI MVP in '56; like Moore, he was a hybrid, although he was mostly a RB earlier in his career (which is when he won the award)

Harlon Hill was a true WR, and he won the NEA MVP in '55; his best season was probably '54 or '56, but he won the MVP in '55 on a Bears team that went 8-1 down the stretch. The NEA starting naming MVPs in '55, otherwise he might have won the award in '54 as well.

Finally, Don Hutson won the MVP in '41 and '42, and of course deservedly so. It was the Joe F. Carr trophy back then.

But no, Welker is not going to win any NFL MVP awards this season. He may not even earn a first-team All-Pro honor.

I stand by my statement that no WR has won the AP MVP Award since its inception in 1957, which generally is accepted as the most official league MVP award.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Pretty sure he's the league MVP at this point.

Stinky bait.

How so? The guy moves the chains, leads the league in receptions and is 4th in receiving yards...after missing games. He's a superstud. Without Welker I'm not sure where NE would be.

Receptions is an overrated stat, and 24 other players have more touchdown catches than him. And possession WRs who average less than 11 yards per catch are never the most valuable player on their own team, much less of the entire league. Welker is the third best and their most valuable skill position player on his own team, at best.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I stand by my statement that no WR has won the AP MVP Award since its inception in 1957, which generally is accepted as the most official league MVP award.

It's just semantics at this point, but...There's no such thing as most official; something is either official or it isn't. There's no official MVP award, just like there's no official All Pro team, but there is an official Pro Bowl team.

That said, if you're focused on the AP, Capalletti did win one (which you could discount because it was the AFL, or because he was part-kicker, or both). http://www.remembertheafl.com/AFLMVPs.htm

 

[dgreen]

There's no such thing as most official; something is either official or it isn't. There's no official MVP award, just like there's no official All Pro team, but there is an official Pro Bowl team.

Why is that? It's always kind of annoyed me. Aren't the awards in other leagues ***OFFICIAL***? I know the NHL's awards are official league awards and I think both MLB's and NBA's are too.

 

[Chase Stuart]

There's no such thing as most official; something is either official or it isn't. There's no official MVP award, just like there's no official All Pro team, but there is an official Pro Bowl team.

Why is that? It's always kind of annoyed me. Aren't the awards in other leagues ***OFFICIAL***? I know the NHL's awards are official league awards and I think both MLB's and NBA's are too.

Based on who votes on these things and their voting methodology, I think we're all better off that they're not ***official***.

 

[Boston]

One of the more amazing things about Welker is the amount of hits he takes on so many of his receptions. Many of his routes are over the middle and no one is giving him a break. Yesterday was an example of the punishment his body takes yet more often than not he pops right up and makes another reception. Brady was dead on when he compared Welker to a Labrador Retriever...he goes and gets the ball, brings it back and goes out and gets it again.

Didn't he miss time earlier this year? Seems to me he might have a short career playing this way.

I believe it was his knee that kept him out. It will be interesting to see how long he can maintain this level with the pounding he takes. Pound for pound he's as tough as they come and he seems to be getting better every season. I would not be surprised if in the future Edelman starts taking a few of those routes to keep some mileage off of Welker. If this year is any indication Edelman will more than hold his own in in this area in upcoming seasons.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Pretty sure he's the league MVP at this point.

Stinky bait.

How so? The guy moves the chains, leads the league in receptions and is 4th in receiving yards...after missing games. He's a superstud. Without Welker I'm not sure where NE would be.

In the games he did not play IIRC the Pats struggled quite a bit so I think it matters a lot. Clifton, I don't actually know what this is an alias for but most intelligent folks in here know its an alias. The thing about you is that you do make decent arguments and you have some really good angles that often get overlooked. But the schtick and also not fessing up to it as schtick is what turns some folks off, I guess. I enjoy your posts but I take a deep breath before I read them and I am always looking for the schtick angle when you write. But your posts are entertaining and props to you for being able to walk a fine line on the board.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Pretty sure he's the league MVP at this point.

Stinky bait.

How so? The guy moves the chains, leads the league in receptions and is 4th in receiving yards...after missing games. He's a superstud. Without Welker I'm not sure where NE would be.

How many WR have won the official MVP award? Answer: none.

There is no official MVP award. The AP award is the most popular, at least in modern times, but it wasn't always the most popular or most respected.Jerry Rice ('87, '90) won three NFL MVPs, the Bert Bell Award in '90 and the NEA and PFWA MVP in '87.

Before him, Pete Retzlaff as a tight end (although he played some WR) won the BBA in '65.

Gino Cappelletti, longtime Pats broadcaster, won the UPI MVP and the AP POY award (the MVP of the AFL was given this award from the AP while the MVP from the NFL was given the AP MVP). He won the award as a hybrid WR-kicker.

Lenny Moore won the '64 NEA MVP; Moore was a hybrid RB/WR, although by the end of his career (which is when he won the award), he was more of a RB than a flanker.

Lance Alworth won the UPI MVP in '63.

In the pre-merger era, Frank Gifford won the NEA and UPI MVP in '56; like Moore, he was a hybrid, although he was mostly a RB earlier in his career (which is when he won the award)

Harlon Hill was a true WR, and he won the NEA MVP in '55; his best season was probably '54 or '56, but he won the MVP in '55 on a Bears team that went 8-1 down the stretch. The NEA starting naming MVPs in '55, otherwise he might have won the award in '54 as well.

Finally, Don Hutson won the MVP in '41 and '42, and of course deservedly so. It was the Joe F. Carr trophy back then.

But no, Welker is not going to win any NFL MVP awards this season. He may not even earn a first-team All-Pro honor.

Look at me, I know facts your mama never dreamed of

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

what happened to regression to the mean?

 

[Chase Stuart]

what happened to regression to the mean?

Unless you think he's going to get 60 catches over the last 6 games, you're about to see it happen.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

if he doesn't catch 140 balls he's regressing to the mean?

 

[Chase Stuart]

if he doesn't catch 140 balls he's regressing to the mean?

He's been averaging a hair under 10 catches per game this season. His true level of ability is somewhere below 10 catches per game; to get to 10 catches per game, he needs some combination of unlikely to repeat factors (all things broadly called luck - SOS, game situation, health, getting his number called more frequently than normal). He's not good enough (no one is) to catch 10 catches per game; even though that's his average now, he's unlikely to average that for the rest of the year, because of the principles behind regression to the mean.

 

[Boston]

if he doesn't catch 140 balls he's regressing to the mean?

He's been averaging a hair under 10 catches per game this season. His true level of ability is somewhere below 10 catches per game; to get to 10 catches per game, he needs some combination of unlikely to repeat factors (all things broadly called luck - SOS, game situation, health, getting his number called more frequently than normal). He's not good enough (no one is) to catch 10 catches per game; even though that's his average now, he's unlikely to average that for the rest of the year, because of the principles behind regression to the mean.

Not saying you're wrong but you leave out a couple of things...his first year was his first in the Pats O and his first with Brady...his second year was with an inexperienced Matt Cassell...he now has over two and a half years in the Patriot offense and has more chemistry with Brady. Due to that there is the possibility he could take his numbers to another level.

 

[Your Mom]

Pretty sure he's the league MVP at this point.

favre

No Way. Brees or Manning. Without Favre the Vikings would still be a decent team. Obviously favre makes the one of the best teams in the NFL. Without Brees or Manning the Saints/Colts would not be any good. One of them should win MVP.

 

[SSOG]

if he doesn't catch 140 balls he's regressing to the mean?

He's been averaging a hair under 10 catches per game this season. His true level of ability is somewhere below 10 catches per game; to get to 10 catches per game, he needs some combination of unlikely to repeat factors (all things broadly called luck - SOS, game situation, health, getting his number called more frequently than normal). He's not good enough (no one is) to catch 10 catches per game; even though that's his average now, he's unlikely to average that for the rest of the year, because of the principles behind regression to the mean.

The only point I disagree with is the point that no one is good enough to average 10 catches a game. Plenty of WR are good enough, just not in any current NFL offense. If the Air Raid ever made it to the NFL, you could see a 160 catch WR. Likewise, if the spread option ever made it big in the NFL, I could totally envision a 200+ reception RB who really just feasted on cheap shovel passes and averaged 4-5 yards per reception.If there's a fundamental schematic difference in the way that Welker is used, then 10 catches/game could in fact be his true average. I don't believe that there is, and I don't believe that it is.