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Westbrook vs. Bush in a PPR format (1 Viewer)

I love Westbrook but I am a tad concerned about injuries. I hate that Deuce is there in NO too. Is it 1 pt per rec.

 
Well I have Westbrook ahead of Bush, but I do have a lot of questions about Westbrook. Not only his health, but that of Shawn Andrews. I have a feeling that Andrews' injury is more serious than he or the team is letting on. If he's out for an extended period of time, Westbrook's value could take a bit of a hit, especially in non ppr leagues. Andrews is arguably the Eagles best player and a superb run blocker. On the flip side, if he is out for an extended period of time, it could actually help Westbrook in ppr leagues because you'd have to figure that in order to get the ball in their most dangerous weapon's hands, they'd resort to passing it to him more so with Andrews out.

 
Yes I'm assuming 1 PPR.

It seems to me that the two are basically indistinguishable in terms of projections. I'm having trouble ranking one ahead of the other...

 
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In an email discussion we talked about Steven Jackson's high number of receptions last year and how it would affect this year. Similarly, I think the data applies to Bush, too. Here is what I wrote:

Steven Jackson set a huge mark last year with 91 catches. In the last 5 or so years that ties him for second (single season) with (believe it or not) Charlie Garner from 2002 and puts them behind LT's 100 catches in 2003. Reggie Bush from last year is right behind them with 89, then the numbers start dropping more. I see Leonard definitely eating into these numbers, maybe picking up 40 or so receptions over the year. Keep in mind that he'll still need to work on his pass protection to have an impact and get lots of PT, and rookie RBs traditionally struggle with that. Being that the Rams just signed Bulger to an extension, and he isn't the most mobile guy, this is even more important than usual.

Flowing from that info though, something else sticks out to me. SJ will NOT approach those lofty reception numbers this year. For LT, the # of receptions he's had since then are 53, 50, and 56. Garner followed up his 91 with 48 and never saw significant numbers after that (I think injury played a role though in the following seasons). Faulk had 81 in 2002, and only saw 50 in 2004, with no other significant seasons for receptions. The bottom line is that people who see those numbers and expect repeats are highly likely to be highly disappointed.
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I added the emphasis in bold for this post, not in the original email. Bottom line, I see a dropoff for reception totals for Bush. Westbrook has consistently shown he is a fundamental part of the Eagles' passing game, and should continue to be. The loss of Andrews is very tough, but Max Jean-Gilles will likely sub in if he is needed and he is supposed to be a road-grader as well, though not as comfortable in the pass protection schemes yet. As far as passing numbers for Westbrook, I think Andrews potentially being out doesn't help him as much as the fact that the D is still a question mark. If they let up more points they have to score more (and likely pass more) and Westbrook is a likely beneficiary of that. All in all, I have them ranked very closely but in a redraft would go with Westbrook.

 
Are we forgetting that last year was Bush's rookie season?? The guy is a stud in PPR. In a dynasty it's a no brainer. I'm taking Bush. Redraft is much closer but I still like Bush better.

 
Rodeojones said:
Are we forgetting that last year was Bush's rookie season?? The guy is a stud in PPR. In a dynasty it's a no brainer. I'm taking Bush. Redraft is much closer but I still like Bush better.
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I think in redraft that Westy has a slight edge, simply because he is in on every down and frankly there are much fewer quality targets in Philly (IMO) than there are in NO. But that is only a slight edge.In Dynasty it is not close.
 
Polish Hammer said:
In an email discussion we talked about Steven Jackson's high number of receptions last year and how it would affect this year. Similarly, I think the data applies to Bush, too. Here is what I wrote:

Steven Jackson set a huge mark last year with 91 catches. In the last 5 or so years that ties him for second (single season) with (believe it or not) Charlie Garner from 2002 and puts them behind LT's 100 catches in 2003. Reggie Bush from last year is right behind them with 89, then the numbers start dropping more. I see Leonard definitely eating into these numbers, maybe picking up 40 or so receptions over the year. Keep in mind that he'll still need to work on his pass protection to have an impact and get lots of PT, and rookie RBs traditionally struggle with that. Being that the Rams just signed Bulger to an extension, and he isn't the most mobile guy, this is even more important than usual.

Flowing from that info though, something else sticks out to me. SJ will NOT approach those lofty reception numbers this year. For LT, the # of receptions he's had since then are 53, 50, and 56. Garner followed up his 91 with 48 and never saw significant numbers after that (I think injury played a role though in the following seasons). Faulk had 81 in 2002, and only saw 50 in 2004, with no other significant seasons for receptions. The bottom line is that people who see those numbers and expect repeats are highly likely to be highly disappointed.
Click to expand...
I added the emphasis in bold for this post, not in the original email. Bottom line, I see a dropoff for reception totals for Bush. Westbrook has consistently shown he is a fundamental part of the Eagles' passing game, and should continue to be. The loss of Andrews is very tough, but Max Jean-Gilles will likely sub in if he is needed and he is supposed to be a road-grader as well, though not as comfortable in the pass protection schemes yet. As far as passing numbers for Westbrook, I think Andrews potentially being out doesn't help him as much as the fact that the D is still a question mark. If they let up more points they have to score more (and likely pass more) and Westbrook is a likely beneficiary of that. All in all, I have them ranked very closely but in a redraft would go with Westbrook.
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Good points and I also expect a drop off in receptions for bush. The difference between bush and those other examples is that bush actually does line up at WR from time to time, similar to westbrook.
 
Polish Hammer said:
Bottom line, I see a dropoff for reception totals for Bush. Westbrook has consistently shown he is a fundamental part of the Eagles' passing game, and should continue to be.
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And Bush is not just as fundamental to the Saints' passing game?He's a hybrid RB/WR - just like Westbrook. Both players will exceed 70 catches again.Garner is the only comp with a similar role and injury played a big role in his drop off. So unless you are projecting injury I wouldn't down tick either player's receptions below 70.All that said, I'd take Westy ahead of Reg in redraft and it's obviously vice versa in a dynasty. Also, I do perceive Reg to have less injury risk, so if that is overwhelming in your analysis, you might take Reg higher in a redraft even tho he will be splitting w/Deuce.
 
To be honest, I created this topic with redrafts in mind. I don't think there's any comparison in a Dynasty league... Bush is clearly the guy.

 
I have Addai, Westy and Bush all ranked very close in a PPR league.

Addai, I believe will be just behind these 2 in receptions and will have more TDs by far.

 
I have Addai/Westy/Bush all ranked even too. I guess I'm leaning towards Addai because I feel like his floor is the highest of the 3... but I'm still up in the air...

 
I have the similar quandry. I am in a one player keeper league and can keep one player, LJ, Gore or Bush. There is a 1/2 pt per reception. When I use FBG projections they are virtually equal in projected points. So my thought is to keep Bush. He is younger in a more dynamic offense, and the catchs make him more consistent week to week. LJ's situation scares me. He is holding out, the offensive line is not as good, qb questions, defense's loading up in the box against him, etc. Gore would be a good keeper being that he would be the featured runner behind a far superior line, but his broken hand, injury history, and new offensive coordinator may not use him as effectively as Norv did make him a question for me as well.

I guess I am leaning towards Bush.

 
Chipped Beef on Turf said:
I have the similar quandry. I am in a one player keeper league and can keep one player, LJ, Gore or Bush. There is a 1/2 pt per reception. When I use FBG projections they are virtually equal in projected points. So my thought is to keep Bush. He is younger in a more dynamic offense, and the catchs make him more consistent week to week. LJ's situation scares me. He is holding out, the offensive line is not as good, qb questions, defense's loading up in the box against him, etc. Gore would be a good keeper being that he would be the featured runner behind a far superior line, but his broken hand, injury history, and new offensive coordinator may not use him as effectively as Norv did make him a question for me as well.I guess I am leaning towards Bush.
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You're leaning towards Reggie Bush over Frank Gore.Just think about that for a good minute or so. Do you in your heart of hearts seriously think that Reggie Bush is a better player than Frank Gore? If you honestly do then make the move. Personally I wouldn't pick Reggie Bush over Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook, Joseph Addai or several other running backs in a million years but that's just me.
 
I had this same dilemma in a 1 pt per reception draft I just had. I knew it was between Westy or Bush and I was looking for the deciding factor between the two. There are three reasons why I am very happy I chose Bush and would recommend him over Westy.

1. Westy's injury history (no need to elaborate).

2. Bush's upside IF Deuce gets injured (an easy top 3 back in PPR) and combine that with Westy's potential downside of getting injured himself.

3. Finally what did it for me, Strength of Schedule.

Bush has the 3RD EASIEST SOS in the League for RB's and Westy has the 3RD HARDEST SOS. (Based on Clayton Gray's SOS)

After seeing that PHI had one of the hardest schedules in the league for RB and NO had one of the easiest that did it for me. Granted, both players are great players where SOS isn't a huge factor, but it was reason enough for me to take Bush over Westy in a 1 point per reception league.

 
Personally, I think Bush is slightly the better back in PPR this year and I don't think it comes down to number of receptions at all.

Westbrook tied his career high for rushing TDs last year with 7. Normally he got around 3. I think with Hunt there, tougher rushing schedule (as mentioned earlier), Westy will lose to Bush simply on total TDs.

I honestly think total yardage and receptions will be basically same for each (1600 - 1700). Bush's TD's should increase this year imo, and so will his rushing yards.

So by the slimmest of margins say 15 - 20 fantasy points, I'd take Bush, but in my line of thinking that makes them almost equal backs this year.

However, Reggie's ceiling might be higher because if Deuce goes down his touches go way up, but I don't plan on injuries so I don't think that is a valid argument.

 
Gotta go with Bush. Even if West plays 16 games, Bush finished RB9 in my .5ppr league and that's without really turning it on until Week 8.

I think a healthy Bush is a Top 5 RB in ppr.

One poster had a v. interesting point though about RBs with abnormally high reception totals taking a huge drop in Year N+1. I think Bush will easily go down, tough to go up from there, but I think 70+ is still very realistically.

Plus, he was being used more in the red zone as the season wore on.

And with Westy, as another poster pointed out, there is the Hunt factor combined with Westy have much higher than normal TD totals last year.

Bush no brainer IMO. (But I'm a huge Bush fan :lmao: )

 
Westbrook was never the goal line back anyway, so Hunt will have zero affect on Westy.

Bush is younger and has greater potential, but he's been streaky and has to share with a legit RB in Deuce.

I'd go with Westy in all leagues, but understand if a few jump for Bush in Dynasty.

 
bigtyme said:
I had this same dilemma in a 1 pt per reception draft I just had. I knew it was between Westy or Bush and I was looking for the deciding factor between the two. There are three reasons why I am very happy I chose Bush and would recommend him over Westy.

1. Westy's injury history (no need to elaborate).

2. Bush's upside IF Deuce gets injured (an easy top 3 back in PPR) and combine that with Westy's potential downside of getting injured himself.

3. Finally what did it for me, Strength of Schedule.

Bush has the 3RD EASIEST SOS in the League for RB's and Westy has the 3RD HARDEST SOS. (Based on Clayton Gray's SOS)

After seeing that PHI had one of the hardest schedules in the league for RB and NO had one of the easiest that did it for me. Granted, both players are great players where SOS isn't a huge factor, but it was reason enough for me to take Bush over Westy in a 1 point per reception league.
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:thumbup: I'm drafting tomorrow with the 6th pick, I'll have the same choice. I'm leaning toward Bush. I don't trust McNabb to stay healthy, and there's no Garcia to keep Westy's value up. Also, I think Westy hit his high-water mark last season. Bush could still do better- if he plays like he did at the end of the season, he'll be a beast even sharing time with Deuce.

 
freshly_shorn said:
bigtyme said:
I had this same dilemma in a 1 pt per reception draft I just had. I knew it was between Westy or Bush and I was looking for the deciding factor between the two. There are three reasons why I am very happy I chose Bush and would recommend him over Westy.

1. Westy's injury history (no need to elaborate).

2. Bush's upside IF Deuce gets injured (an easy top 3 back in PPR) and combine that with Westy's potential downside of getting injured himself.

3. Finally what did it for me, Strength of Schedule.

Bush has the 3RD EASIEST SOS in the League for RB's and Westy has the 3RD HARDEST SOS. (Based on Clayton Gray's SOS)

After seeing that PHI had one of the hardest schedules in the league for RB and NO had one of the easiest that did it for me. Granted, both players are great players where SOS isn't a huge factor, but it was reason enough for me to take Bush over Westy in a 1 point per reception league.
Click to expand...
;) I'm drafting tomorrow with the 6th pick, I'll have the same choice. I'm leaning toward Bush. I don't trust McNabb to stay healthy, and there's no Garcia to keep Westy's value up. Also, I think Westy hit his high-water mark last season. Bush could still do better- if he plays like he did at the end of the season, he'll be a beast even sharing time with Deuce.
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I pick 7th this weekend. I guess I am hoping one of them is picked before it comes to me. I expect 2 of Bush/Addai/Westy to be there though. Gonna be a tough call.
 
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