umrebel
Footballguy
OK, so here's a time killing question I wonder every season about, What are the percentages that make up a championship Fantasy Team? Should lead to entertaining answers nonetheless..
I probably spend anywhere from 7 to 15 hours from Tuesday-Monday looking at either DFS football or my year long league football. I look at just about every position matchup to every game out there, every possible guy on waivers and if there are any possible trades to give myself the best chance of winning it all.
This research use to give me an edge in my league, but now i'm starting to feel like it just doesn't matter at all. Maybe the NFL just isn't as predictable as it once was?
Luck has always played a role in fantasy, but now its starting to feel like the x-factor. This isn't about my year, (i'm 6-4 and could easily be 2-8 truth be told), I'm just curious what others think.
Here's my stab at the percentage breakdown of how to win a championship:
Draft prep & Draft- 10% (knowing ADP's, and all the backups and sleepers)
Transactions; Free agents and trades- 25% (use of wavier claims, trades buying low/selling high)
Team Management- 5% (start or sit, studying match ups, bye week replacements)
Knowing your League- 2% (The importance of knowing your fellow owners)
Luck Factor- 58% (everything from the head to head schedules you play to Injuries you didn't see coming)
The Draft prep and draft is somewhat important, if not for any other reason other than familiarizing yourself with all the players and their roles in the NFL. Transactions though are really the most important part of a season that you can control. The choices to use a wavier claim on a player now OR wait and move up in the order or hold out for something better. Also, you choose whether to give up on a guy or go down with the ship. Team Management is only important when you haven't really done a good job with the first two things. And knowing your fellow owners tendencies and who they are fans of can help you sometimes in trades and drafting, but ultimately i'm not sure it matters a whole lot. BUT luck....... Man, being lucky is king these days. I have always tried to give myself a better chance at luck by rostering perhaps the best back up RB in the league, or stashing defenses that face terrible offenses in the playoff weeks, whatever the edge may be. But at the end of the day there is nothing you can do if you are the unlucky team that is 2-8 with the 4th most points scored, or the guy who loses a game having scored the 2nd or 3rd most points that week. Because all these factors then determine your playoff seed, and perhaps you advanced to the championship game all because of the seeding which was a result of a week 4 game that you won or lost. You can take luck out a little by taking out the head to head play, but lets be honest here, the game is just more fun with head to head in it and the luck factor is pretty much the thing that brings us back every year anyway right? I've always felt luck was more like 10%, and any year I won wasn't about luck, but more about me putting myself in that position to be " lucky ". But hell, maybe I was lucky in those years afterall.. what say you
I probably spend anywhere from 7 to 15 hours from Tuesday-Monday looking at either DFS football or my year long league football. I look at just about every position matchup to every game out there, every possible guy on waivers and if there are any possible trades to give myself the best chance of winning it all.
This research use to give me an edge in my league, but now i'm starting to feel like it just doesn't matter at all. Maybe the NFL just isn't as predictable as it once was?
Luck has always played a role in fantasy, but now its starting to feel like the x-factor. This isn't about my year, (i'm 6-4 and could easily be 2-8 truth be told), I'm just curious what others think.
Here's my stab at the percentage breakdown of how to win a championship:
Draft prep & Draft- 10% (knowing ADP's, and all the backups and sleepers)
Transactions; Free agents and trades- 25% (use of wavier claims, trades buying low/selling high)
Team Management- 5% (start or sit, studying match ups, bye week replacements)
Knowing your League- 2% (The importance of knowing your fellow owners)
Luck Factor- 58% (everything from the head to head schedules you play to Injuries you didn't see coming)
The Draft prep and draft is somewhat important, if not for any other reason other than familiarizing yourself with all the players and their roles in the NFL. Transactions though are really the most important part of a season that you can control. The choices to use a wavier claim on a player now OR wait and move up in the order or hold out for something better. Also, you choose whether to give up on a guy or go down with the ship. Team Management is only important when you haven't really done a good job with the first two things. And knowing your fellow owners tendencies and who they are fans of can help you sometimes in trades and drafting, but ultimately i'm not sure it matters a whole lot. BUT luck....... Man, being lucky is king these days. I have always tried to give myself a better chance at luck by rostering perhaps the best back up RB in the league, or stashing defenses that face terrible offenses in the playoff weeks, whatever the edge may be. But at the end of the day there is nothing you can do if you are the unlucky team that is 2-8 with the 4th most points scored, or the guy who loses a game having scored the 2nd or 3rd most points that week. Because all these factors then determine your playoff seed, and perhaps you advanced to the championship game all because of the seeding which was a result of a week 4 game that you won or lost. You can take luck out a little by taking out the head to head play, but lets be honest here, the game is just more fun with head to head in it and the luck factor is pretty much the thing that brings us back every year anyway right? I've always felt luck was more like 10%, and any year I won wasn't about luck, but more about me putting myself in that position to be " lucky ". But hell, maybe I was lucky in those years afterall.. what say you