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What’s the real formula to winning a league championship? (1 Viewer)

umrebel

Footballguy
OK, so here's a time killing question I wonder every season about, What are the percentages that make up a championship Fantasy Team? Should lead to entertaining answers nonetheless..

I probably spend anywhere from 7 to 15 hours from Tuesday-Monday looking at either DFS football or my year long league football. I look at just about every position matchup to every game out there, every possible guy on waivers and if there are any possible trades to give myself the best chance of winning it all. 

This research use to give me an edge in my league, but now i'm starting to feel like it just doesn't matter at all. Maybe the NFL just isn't as predictable as it once was?

Luck has always played a role in fantasy,  but now its starting to feel like the x-factor. This isn't about my year, (i'm 6-4 and could easily be 2-8 truth be told), I'm just curious what others think.

Here's my stab at the percentage breakdown of how to win a championship: 

Draft prep & Draft- 10% (knowing ADP's, and all the backups and sleepers)

Transactions; Free agents and trades- 25% (use of wavier claims, trades buying low/selling high)

Team Management- 5% (start or sit, studying match ups, bye week replacements)

Knowing your League- 2% (The importance of knowing your fellow owners)

Luck Factor- 58% (everything from the head to head schedules you play to Injuries you didn't see coming)

The Draft prep and draft is somewhat important, if not for any other reason other than familiarizing yourself with all the players and their roles in the NFL. Transactions though are really the most important part of a season that you can control. The choices to use a wavier claim on a player now OR wait and move up in the order or hold out for something better. Also, you choose whether to give up on a guy or go down with the ship. Team Management is only important when you haven't really done a good job with the first two things. And knowing your fellow owners tendencies and who they are fans of can help you sometimes in trades and drafting, but ultimately i'm not sure it matters a whole lot. BUT luck....... Man, being lucky is king these days. I have always tried to give myself a better chance at luck by rostering perhaps the best back up RB in the league, or stashing defenses that face terrible offenses in the playoff weeks, whatever the edge may be. But at the end of the day there is nothing you can do if you are the unlucky team that is 2-8 with the 4th most points scored, or the guy who loses a game having scored the 2nd or 3rd most points that week. Because all these factors then determine your playoff seed, and perhaps you advanced to the championship game all because of the seeding which was a result of a week 4 game that you won or lost. You can take luck out a little by taking out the head to head play, but lets be honest here, the game is just more fun with head to head in it and the luck factor is pretty much the thing that brings us back every year anyway right? I've always felt luck was more like 10%, and any year I won wasn't about luck, but more about me putting myself in that position to be " lucky ". But hell, maybe I was lucky in those years afterall.. what say you  

 
The industry is inundated with information that is easily available to everyone.  There is no "outwork" your opponent to get an edge anymore (except maybe in IDP's because that information is not as easy to find).  This game is 95% luck, 2% transactions (paying attention during the year), 2 % draft prep, and 1% knowing your league rules. 

Everyone knows the same stuff.  It comes down to did the schedule favor you (not losing with the 2nd most points because you played against the only team that would beat you) and did your key players not get hurt and get hot down the stretch. 

 
The industry is inundated with information that is easily available to everyone.  There is no "outwork" your opponent to get an edge anymore (except maybe in IDP's because that information is not as easy to find).  This game is 95% luck, 2% transactions (paying attention during the year), 2 % draft prep, and 1% knowing your league rules. 

Everyone knows the same stuff.  It comes down to did the schedule favor you (not losing with the 2nd most points because you played against the only team that would beat you) and did your key players not get hurt and get hot down the stretch. 
In my main redraft league it's the same guys each year leading the league in points and winning the titles. I find that 95% luck is a little too dramatic.[

It's all about recognizing your strengths and weaknesses. I generally do pretty well during the draft and can identify some good sleeper candidates that end up hitting and making my team good. I'm persistent in trade offers but rarely get one through. Last year I finally got Russell Wilson down the stretch to secure my SB title run.  I think I made 2 trades this year for minor players that haven't had an impact on my team. I know that I'm not good on the WW. I'm generally pessimistic about the chances of a guy maintaining his production and chalk it up to be a 1 or 2 week streak. Similarly I put my eggs in the wrong basket pretty often. I'm also quick to lose patience and drop guys, as the WW gives me an opportunity to hit a homerun if I finally do get one right (which is rare). 

It's all about being self aware. The key to my success is the draft. I have to try to hang onto guys longer than I want to and try to look past my initial impressions of WW guys to dig deeper for potential long-term value. That's still an area that I need to improve on. 

There is a ton of information out there, but it doesn't necessarily mean that everybody in your league knows how to take advantage of it. And if they do, the goal is to make your moves with anticipation of things happening in the future. For instance, I snagged Corey Davis in my league before the big fantasy sites started recommending him for a WW pickup. I also did the same with Greg Olsen (it's a short bench league, roster spots are very valuable). Now Olsen is showing up as a Week 11 WW target, but I've had him for the past 2 weeks already. Obviously injuries are unpredictable, but if you can roster guys who are 1 injury away from being fantasy relevant until something better comes along, that would be something to think about. 

 
Much of what you are referring to is good but the bottom line nobody really knows what is going to happen.  Injuries are very unpredictable.  Schedule luck is very unpredictable.  However, I do agree that staying active through the year and watching how things are changing will help you stay competitive and put you in a position to be there at the end but luck is by far the largest component of who wins and who doesn't. 

 
Agreed and very solid points. And now i'm rethinking my percentages. I think the only way to combat luck, seems to me, is to just accept that it is a big part of the game and accept that in the end it evens itself out among the league.

There is no way you can even say that you've had unfortunate luck or been fortunate because really every action has a reaction.  You can probably argue luck is 99.9 percent, hell just make is 100% because you were lucky that a guy fell to you in the draft and then unlucky he got hurt. You were lucky when you replaced him on the waivers and got an even better player. Then that player was unlucky that his dip stick coach made a choice that cost your player points, which in turn basically ended your season AND with your season over you add a rookie player that closes out the season strong and you decide to keep him on your team the following season and he ends up playing a big role on your championship team next year! You are soooo lucky.  PS- then that player tears his ACL in the NFL playoffs and its back to square one :P

 

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