What are Hakeem Nicks projections in Indianapolis? (1 Viewer)

[Dynasty Walkers]

Will moving to Indianapolis give his career a new breath of fresh air? Or have we already seen the best of Nicks? Of course it doesn't hurt having Andrew Luck throwing to you, but the Colts suddenly have a lot of mouths to feed with Wayne and Allen coming back, to go along with Hilton, Fleener and Nicks. I project his best case scenario being 700-900 yards and 6 to 8 TDs. That may be conservative to some and generous to others.



edited to add Fleener in the mix. I forgot him.

 

[duaneok66]

One of the more interesting (non - rookie) situations to monitor in 2014.

Giants homers, any clues??

 

[MAC_32]

Pep Hamilton will keep trying to run the ball no matter how Richardson does and Nicks will be taking the dhb/Avery role in the offense. Will be behind Hilton and Wayne and maybe one (or two?) of the tight ends too. Meh.

 

[Dynasty Walkers]

Pep Hamilton will keep trying to run the ball no matter how Richardson does and Nicks will be taking the dhb/Avery role in the offense. Will be behind Hilton and Wayne and maybe one (or two?) of the tight ends too. Meh.

Pep Hamilton will keep trying to run the ball no matter how Richardson does and Nicks will be taking the dhb/Avery role in the offense. Will be behind Hilton and Wayne and maybe one (or two?) of the tight ends too. Meh.

I forgot Fleener.

 

[cloppbeast]

I project his best case scenario being 700-900 yards and 6 to 8 TDs.

I've read Nicks can't get open anymore, I think from Matt Williamson. I'm inclined to believe Nicks isn't the player he once was.

Though, Nicks could get a bunch of targets. A lot depends on Reggie Wayne. Is he definitely returning?

 

[Wise Old Owl]

Pep Hamilton will keep trying to run the ball no matter how Richardson does and Nicks will be taking the dhb/Avery role in the offense. Will be behind Hilton and Wayne and maybe one (or two?) of the tight ends too. Meh.

I don't know why you think this. Are we assuming Wayne will be healthy for the opener? What have the TE's done to prove they deserve more targets than Nicks?

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

I project his best case scenario being 700-900 yards and 6 to 8 TDs.

I've read Nicks can't get open anymore, I think from Matt Williamson. I'm inclined to believe Nicks isn't the player he once was.

Though, Nicks could get a bunch of targets. A lot depends on Reggie Wayne. Is he definitely returning?

Nicks just turned 26 and he's entering the prime of his career. I think his injury history is overblown. I mean, if Danario Alexander, who's had 5-6 knee surgeries (most before playing a down in the NFL), can be fantasy relevant, Nicks can sure come back to life. I guess what I'm saying is that I don't think Nicks is done as many believe. I think he was in a bad situation with a stale offense and Eli was exposed as a below average QB. I'm one who is betting ON Nicks for the future. I wouldn't be shocked if he ended up in top 10 territory for the next several years. It's all up to him, imo. If he wants it and has that drive, he'll show it this year, imo. We'll know by season's end if he's back as a top WR or a fraud that had 2 decent seasons and teased us all.

 

[MAC_32]

Pep Hamilton will keep trying to run the ball no matter how Richardson does and Nicks will be taking the dhb/Avery role in the offense. Will be behind Hilton and Wayne and maybe one (or two?) of the tight ends too. Meh.

I don't know why you think this. Are we assuming Wayne will be healthy for the opener? What have the TE's done to prove they deserve more targets than Nicks?

until otherwise informed I expect Wayne to be healthy week one. Allen was about to get a big boost in playing time last year before his foot problem, have to think that is a sign of things to come. Fleener was irratic early, but improved throughout the season and was drafted primarily as a receiving tight end.A lot has to go right for Nicks to be anything more than a handcuff IMHO.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Pep Hamilton will keep trying to run the ball no matter how Richardson does and Nicks will be taking the dhb/Avery role in the offense. Will be behind Hilton and Wayne and maybe one (or two?) of the tight ends too. Meh.

There is no "DHB/Avery role", it's just that those guys were terrible. In fact DHB was keeping Hilton off the field until the staff finally gave up on him - and Wayne got hurt. Maybe you can say that Nicks is terrible now, but it wouldnt be because of his role in the offense.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Pep Hamilton will keep trying to run the ball no matter how Richardson does and Nicks will be taking the dhb/Avery role in the offense. Will be behind Hilton and Wayne and maybe one (or two?) of the tight ends too. Meh.

I don't know why you think this. Are we assuming Wayne will be healthy for the opener? What have the TE's done to prove they deserve more targets than Nicks?

until otherwise informed I expect Wayne to be healthy week one. Allen was about to get a big boost in playing time last year before his foot problem, have to think that is a sign of things to come. Fleener was irratic early, but improved throughout the season and was drafted primarily as a receiving tight end.A lot has to go right for Nicks to be anything more than a handcuff IMHO.

until I seen Wayne perofrm back to normal going to assume hes missing time or will be really slowed

 

[Nucker101]

Pep Hamilton will keep trying to run the ball no matter how Richardson does and Nicks will be taking the dhb/Avery role in the offense. Will be behind Hilton and Wayne and maybe one (or two?) of the tight ends too. Meh.

Not sure if I fully agree with this, but I do agree that Pep Hamilton is a problem(if that's what you were implying).

 

[identikit]

Rob Chudzinski hired as a special assistant to Pagano will offset Pep's tendencies IMO.

 

[spider321]

I project that Nicks couldn't spell "Indianapolis" if his life depended on it.

 

[False Start]

Pep Hamilton will keep trying to run the ball no matter how Richardson does and Nicks will be taking the dhb/Avery role in the offense. Will be behind Hilton and Wayne and maybe one (or two?) of the tight ends too. Meh.

This is why I am surprised Vick Ballard is getting low balled. He (or whoever the #2 is) will be a big factor this year. As far as Nicks, let me say this, can he do any worse then last year? I have never seen such a putrid season from a starting WR who played 15 of 16 games. 0 TDs? 0, really ZERO? You have to be a certain type of suck to achieve that.

 

[Bri]

If 750 yards is still average for a WR, I'd project that until we see him in preseason.

I have to see him play like the ol' Nicks before I jump on this bandwagon.

I'm a big fan of his. If healthy and moving well, if he and Luck sync up like other QB WR combos, he could have a very high ceiling.

He's already performed at a high level. Won a supe. Dealt with some difficult times, made tons of big catches....and he's only 26 which seems like a fairly unique perspective.

 

[Tanner9919]

Nicks actually recorded the second-highest ypr total last season, 16.0 ( 16.8 the highest), yards/gm 3rd highest of his career.I think he'll be just fine in Indy..they didn't sign him to be a one year fill-in, nor did they sign him to be a backup to Wayne ( who is finished as a top WR) and Hilton.

Nicks is going to make an immediate impact..the guy can flat-out play, and it didn't help having Eli toss as many INT's as he did, thus hurting Nicks' numbers..think about how many more chances he would've had if Eli threw the ball to Giants' players and not the opponents - many more scoring opportunities, longer drives, etc...

I think the G-men started to get away from Nicks, tossed it in for 2013, and tried to see what they had for the future in Jernigan and Randle..it paid dividends, Jernigan is now a starter..

Nicks, 2014

85/1360/9...I discount the Indy TE's as nothing more than fluff pieces..R. Wayne had 106 recs in 2012,

that'll show you what you can expect from the top WR in the Colts' offense..I'd expect Nicks to be the #1 guy there, taking over Wayne's role..doubtful Wayne returns as anything near player he once was..

and a one-year deal like the one Nicks signed for, makes a player blow-up in the hopes of securing a very lucrative, multi-year contract..I expect Nicks to come out on fire in 2014..

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Nicks actually recorded the second-highest ypr total last season, 16.0 ( 16.8 the highest), yards/gm 3rd highest of his career.I think he'll be just fine in Indy..they didn't sign him to be a one year fill-in, nor did they sign him to be a backup to Wayne ( who is finished as a top WR) and Hilton.

Nicks is going to make an immediate impact..the guy can flat-out play, and it didn't help having Eli toss as many INT's as he did, thus hurting Nicks' numbers..think about how many more chances he would've had if Eli threw the ball to Giants' players and not the opponents - many more scoring opportunities, longer drives, etc...

I think the G-men started to get away from Nicks, tossed it in for 2013, and tried to see what they had for the future in Jernigan and Randle..it paid dividends, Jernigan is now a starter..

Nicks, 2014

85/1360/9...I discount the Indy TE's as nothing more than fluff pieces..R. Wayne had 106 recs in 2012,

that'll show you what you can expect from the top WR in the Colts' offense..I'd expect Nicks to be the #1 guy there, taking over Wayne's role..doubtful Wayne returns as anything near player he once was..

and a one-year deal like the one Nicks signed for, makes a player blow-up in the hopes of securing a very lucrative, multi-year contract..I expect Nicks to come out on fire in 2014..

You must have missed 2012 and 2013. Nicks was hot garbage both years -- and you can't just put it all on the QB when Cruz has pretty much been fine over that span. Nicks' contract is the dead giveaway here -- the fact that the best he could get was 1 year @ $3.5 million when guys like Andre Roberts and Emmanuel Sanders were getting 4 / $16 and 3 / $15 tells me everything I need to know. It's certainly remotely possible that 2010 / 2011 Nicks magically reappears, but even then he faces more competition for targets and a more run-heavy system than he had during his two strong years in NY. Projecting him to shatter his previous highs in his first year in Indy is a huge sucker bet.

 

[MAC_32]

Pep Hamilton will keep trying to run the ball no matter how Richardson does and Nicks will be taking the dhb/Avery role in the offense. Will be behind Hilton and Wayne and maybe one (or two?) of the tight ends too. Meh.

There is no "DHB/Avery role", it's just that those guys were terrible. In fact DHB was keeping Hilton off the field until the staff finally gave up on him - and Wayne got hurt. Maybe you can say that Nicks is terrible now, but it wouldnt be because of his role in the offense.

Going based on memory here, but the DHB/Avery role was usually outside in 3 WR sets and it depended on subpackage whether it was him or Hilton in two WR sets. They got a few looks per game, but they were clearly not a focal point of the game plan. If Nicks plays like he did the last two years then he will fit in nicely with that mold. If he actually plays adequately he could etch out a bigger role.

Pep Hamilton will keep trying to run the ball no matter how Richardson does and Nicks will be taking the dhb/Avery role in the offense. Will be behind Hilton and Wayne and maybe one (or two?) of the tight ends too. Meh.

I don't know why you think this. Are we assuming Wayne will be healthy for the opener? What have the TE's done to prove they deserve more targets than Nicks?

until otherwise informed I expect Wayne to be healthy week one. Allen was about to get a big boost in playing time last year before his foot problem, have to think that is a sign of things to come. Fleener was irratic early, but improved throughout the season and was drafted primarily as a receiving tight end.A lot has to go right for Nicks to be anything more than a handcuff IMHO.

until I seen Wayne perofrm back to normal going to assume hes missing time or will be really slowed

Me, personally, I would rather gamble on the good player coming off an injury than the bad player with potential.

Pep Hamilton will keep trying to run the ball no matter how Richardson does and Nicks will be taking the dhb/Avery role in the offense. Will be behind Hilton and Wayne and maybe one (or two?) of the tight ends too. Meh.

Not sure if I fully agree with this, but I do agree that Pep Hamilton is a problem(if that's what you were implying).

His game plan last year was a problem. He wouldn't adapt. What he was doing wasn't working and he kept doing it anyway.

Pep Hamilton will keep trying to run the ball no matter how Richardson does and Nicks will be taking the dhb/Avery role in the offense. Will be behind Hilton and Wayne and maybe one (or two?) of the tight ends too. Meh.

This is why I am surprised Vick Ballard is getting low balled. He (or whoever the #2 is) will be a big factor this year. As far as Nicks, let me say this, can he do any worse then last year? I have never seen such a putrid season from a starting WR who played 15 of 16 games. 0 TDs? 0, really ZERO? You have to be a certain type of suck to achieve that.

Ballard is on my radar, but that could change in 10 days. He's JAG and returning from a serious injury, but the only guy standing in his way has not grasped the mental part of the game. I guess Ballard vs. Richardson is similar to Wayne vs. Nicks. Difference being Wayne has a lengthy track record.

 

[BoltzNBrew]

Comes out of the gate on fire, stubs toe on way to get Gatorade, ends up missing significant time.

 

[Sweet Love]

I get that Da'Rick Rogers just played in four games last year, and that he did squat in the playoffs, but there is one more person taking opportunities away from Nicks.

 

[MoveToSkypager]

30/490/2

 

[karmarooster]

Hilton > Wayne

Nicks > Rogers

Allen > Fleener

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Pep Hamilton will keep trying to run the ball no matter how Richardson does and Nicks will be taking the dhb/Avery role in the offense. Will be behind Hilton and Wayne and maybe one (or two?) of the tight ends too. Meh.

This is why I am surprised Vick Ballard is getting low balled. He (or whoever the #2 is) will be a big factor this year. As far as Nicks, let me say this, can he do any worse then last year? I have never seen such a putrid season from a starting WR who played 15 of 16 games. 0 TDs? 0, really ZERO? You have to be a certain type of suck to achieve that.

Keyshawn Johnson put up 1,266 yards with 1 TD one year (15 games as well). TDs are not a very good predictive statistic. Things have to go right for a TD, and not much went right for the Giants last year.

 

[BigTex]

I project his best case scenario being 700-900 yards and 6 to 8 TDs.

I've read Nicks can't get open anymore, I think from Matt Williamson. I'm inclined to believe Nicks isn't the player he once was.

Though, Nicks could get a bunch of targets. A lot depends on Reggie Wayne. Is he definitely returning?

Nicks just turned 26 and he's entering the prime of his career. I think his injury history is overblown. I mean, if Danario Alexander, who's had 5-6 knee surgeries (most before playing a down in the NFL), can be fantasy relevant, Nicks can sure come back to life. I guess what I'm saying is that I don't think Nicks is done as many believe. I think he was in a bad situation with a stale offense and Eli was exposed as a below average QB. I'm one who is betting ON Nicks for the future. I wouldn't be shocked if he ended up in top 10 territory for the next several years. It's all up to him, imo. If he wants it and has that drive, he'll show it this year, imo. We'll know by season's end if he's back as a top WR or a fraud that had 2 decent seasons and teased us all.

I agree with this.

Tex

 

[Warpig]

If you can get him for cheap, it's obviously worth a gamble to see if he can return to form. But with Pep being ignorant and Chud wanting to incorporate his TE's more I'd curb my expectations. Hilton is the best play maker they have so he may be the one who has the most success. Reggie will probably be the safety blanket if he can still get seperation. Nicks may be a decoy. And Chud will have Allen and Fleener all over the place. Rogers started coming on too. Then they may pick up 1 or 2 guys in the draft. Good for the team, but a headache for fantasy.

 

[BigTex]

At the end of the day this give Luck another weapon and that's what I like the most. Nicks has shown to be dangerous and he's someone the opposing defenses have to worry about.

Tex

 

[Touchdown There]

I disagree with those that think Nicks will have a big season because of Reggie Wayne. Reports are that his recovery is going really well. With that said, I think the Colts should release Wayne and go with Nicks and Rogers.

 

[JohnnyU]

I disagree with those that think Nicks will have a big season because of Reggie Wayne. Reports are that his recovery is going really well. With that said, I think the Colts should release Wayne and go with Nicks and Rogers.

That will never happen. The only scenario of that happening is if Reggie Wayne decided to retire.

 

[mjr]

Despite Eli's woes last year, you can't blame Eli on this one. In fact, Nicks was more of a contributer to some of Eli's woes rather than the other way around. He dropped A LOT of balls thrown his way, and I'm talking about throws that were right on the numbers (which the target/reception stats aren't going to show you). It was almost as if he were dealing with a secret hand or finger injury or something, because it was really hard for all of us watching to believe a WR of his caliber could drop so many good ones. It was definitely maddening for the G-Men fans in my family; lots of yelling at the TV.

That said, I think the move to Indy was probably good for him. It should take the heat off of him for having so many bad drops last year, and I think a change in scenery was something he needed anyway. I don't think his head was really in the game, whatever the issue was.

As far as I'm concerned, Nicks has shown he can do it based off of his 2010-11 play. You know he is at least capable of a 1000/9 season. And the opportunity is right there waiting for him. That's the kind of potential I'm willing to take a gamble on with my WR3 spot without hesitation, but I wouldn't put him in a position that would make or break my fantasy team.

 

[MoveToSkypager]

At the end of the day this give Luck another weapon and that's what I like the most.

A dull spoon isn't much of a weapon though.

 

[Touchdown There]

I disagree with those that think Nicks will have a big season because of Reggie Wayne. Reports are that his recovery is going really well. With that said, I think the Colts should release Wayne and go with Nicks and Rogers.

That will never happen. The only scenario of that happening is if Reggie Wayne decided to retire.

Never? Reggie is old and most players do not walk away on their own. At some point he will no longer play in the NFL and when that day happens, if it is a "voluntary retirement", that just means the Colts told him he was going to be released. Never is absolutely the exact opposite of what is going to happen.

 

[Zaphod]

Despite Eli's woes last year, you can't blame Eli on this one. In fact, Nicks was more of a contributer to some of Eli's woes rather than the other way around. He dropped A LOT of balls thrown his way, and I'm talking about throws that were right on the numbers (which the target/reception stats aren't going to show you). It was almost as if he were dealing with a secret hand or finger injury or something, because it was really hard for all of us watching to believe a WR of his caliber could drop so many good ones. It was definitely maddening for the G-Men fans in my family; lots of yelling at the TV.

That said, I think the move to Indy was probably good for him. It should take the heat off of him for having so many bad drops last year, and I think a change in scenery was something he needed anyway. I don't think his head was really in the game, whatever the issue was.

As far as I'm concerned, Nicks has shown he can do it based off of his 2010-11 play. You know he is at least capable of a 1000/9 season. And the opportunity is right there waiting for him. That's the kind of potential I'm willing to take a gamble on with my WR3 spot without hesitation, but I wouldn't put him in a position that would make or break my fantasy team.

I would have to disagree with this part of the post. I would certainly place the lion's share of the blame on Eli. He was 32nd in completion percentage and 35th in QBR. Further, PFF rated Eli as second worst using their accuracy percentage stat - this incorporates completion percentage, dropped passes, throw aways, spiked balls, batted passes, and QBs getting hit while throwing.

Nicks certainly contributed to his poor season, but Eli was atrocious as a starting NFL QB last year.

 

[Crash and Walk Away]

According to http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/drops/2013/, Nicks dropped the pass on 5% of the balls thrown his way. That is on par with Calvin Johnson, Eric Decker, and Josh Gordon. Not bad company to keep. Based on that statistic, I don't you can consider him dropping a lot of balls last year.

 

[mjr]

According to http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/drops/2013/, Nicks dropped the pass on 5% of the balls thrown his way. That is on par with Calvin Johnson, Eric Decker, and Josh Gordon. Not bad company to keep. Based on that statistic, I don't you can consider him dropping a lot of balls last year.

Did you watch any of the games? Like I said, what I saw last year won't show in stats. He dropped balls that hit him square on the numbers, and in many cases while he was wide open. Those numbers aren't telling you how many balls Calvin or Gordon dropped that were dead on target with no defenders within 10 feet of them...

 

[mjr]

Despite Eli's woes last year, you can't blame Eli on this one. In fact, Nicks was more of a contributer to some of Eli's woes rather than the other way around. He dropped A LOT of balls thrown his way, and I'm talking about throws that were right on the numbers (which the target/reception stats aren't going to show you). It was almost as if he were dealing with a secret hand or finger injury or something, because it was really hard for all of us watching to believe a WR of his caliber could drop so many good ones. It was definitely maddening for the G-Men fans in my family; lots of yelling at the TV.

I would have to disagree with this part of the post. I would certainly place the lion's share of the blame on Eli. He was 32nd in completion percentage and 35th in QBR. Further, PFF rated Eli as second worst using their accuracy percentage stat - this incorporates completion percentage, dropped passes, throw aways, spiked balls, batted passes, and QBs getting hit while throwing.

Nicks certainly contributed to his poor season, but Eli was atrocious as a starting NFL QB last year.

I wasn't suggesting Eli didn't play poorly, that Eli's poor play was the fault of Nick's or that Nicks couldn't have done better if Eli played better. Just saying Nick's lack of production wasn't as much to blame on Eli as some here are suggesting.

Nicks dropped some very SOLID throws from Eli. I understand all players drop a few good passes once in a while, but it seemed like Nicks did so more often than a player normally would or should.

Hey man, I'm just trying to share what I saw with my eyes that you're just not going to see in stats. If you guys don't want to believe it, that's fine, but I know what I saw.

 

[Tau837]

According to http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/drops/2013/, Nicks dropped the pass on 5% of the balls thrown his way. That is on par with Calvin Johnson, Eric Decker, and Josh Gordon. Not bad company to keep. Based on that statistic, I don't you can consider him dropping a lot of balls last year.

Did you watch any of the games? Like I said, what I saw last year won't show in stats. He dropped balls that hit him square on the numbers, and in many cases while he was wide open. Those numbers aren't telling you how many balls Calvin or Gordon dropped that were dead on target with no defenders within 10 feet of them...

By definition, a drop was a ball that should have been caught. You're trying to draw a distinction that isn't there.

 

[King of the Jungle]

The season could go a lot of ways. I think the two healthy TE's will be more involved than people are willing to consider.....Hilton will play the big play role in a conservative offense...Wayne if healthy will have Andrew's trust and get plenty of looks. I cannot comprehend how Nicks ends up with over 1000 yards unless there is injury or the offense drastically opens up.

 

[duaneok66]

The drop stat is very subjective.

 

[Tau837]

According to PFF, Nicks had 7 drops, which was 11.1% of the catchable balls thrown to him.

WRs with worse drop rates than Nicks:

Little

VJax

Stevie Johnson

Shorts

Wallace

Marshall

Bowe

Welker

Roddy

Additional WRs with drop rates higher than 10%:

Edelman

Calvin

Dez

A.J. Green

I don't think drop rate says much about WR quality.

 

[kwille]

I'm comfortable as Nicks as a WR3. Anything better will be gravy.

 

[BigTex]

At the end of the day this give Luck another weapon and that's what I like the most.

A dull spoon isn't much of a weapon though.

I could do a lot of damage with a dull spoon................just saying.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

At the end of the day this give Luck another weapon and that's what I like the most.

A dull spoon isn't much of a weapon though.

I could do a lot of damage with a dull spoon................just saying.

And it would hurt more.

 

[MoveToSkypager]

At the end of the day this give Luck another weapon and that's what I like the most.

A dull spoon isn't much of a weapon though.

I could do a lot of damage with a dull spoon................just saying.

And it would hurt more.

This was the right answer.

Tex, I wasn't talking about damage to yourself buddy!

 

[mr roboto]

You see, numbers are subjective. But my perception and feeling, totally objective.

 

[mjr]

You like being an a**hole? Hmm?

 

[mr roboto]

You like being an a**hole? Hmm?

What?

 

[swirvenirvin]

any projections on this guy

 

[need2know]

I bet he has more tds than he had last year.

I see him as a wr4 and won't reach for him

 

[Ack88]

63/835/6

 

[Skeletore Eh]

Hakeem Nicks - WR - Colts

OC Pep Hamilton said he doesn't know if he can say that he's "seen enough" from Hakeem Nicks so far.

"I think he is still working to get himself in game shape," Hamilton added. It's not a good look for Nicks, who earned motivation questions over the last couple years in New York and is now on a one-year deal. According to the Colts blog Stampede Blue, Nicks is operating as an outside receiver in three-wide sets only -- a formation the Colts are not expected to use very much this year as they install "12" as their base. T.Y. Hilton and Reggie Wayne are the starters.

Related: T.Y. Hilton, Reggie Wayne

Source: Tom James on Twitter Aug 3 - 10:17 AM