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What are the TYPES of mistakes you make in fantasy drafts? (1 Viewer)

ignatiusjreilly

Footballguy
The purpose of this thread isn't to rehash specific mistakes you've made in drafts, such as "I was deciding between Barkley and Taylor in the late first round and went with Saquon." (Which, incidentally, I did last year).

I'm thinking more of actionable learning from previous drafts that you will apply going forward, such as drafting certain positions too early or too late, taking high floor guys when you should take high ceiling guys, etc.

Here are a few I'm keeping in mind:
  • You can splurge on a QB or TE, but not both. Last year I took Hock in the fourth round and Russ in the fifth. The irony is they both played pretty well until they got hurt, but I still think that was a mistake (especially the Russ part). Those are the rounds to target breakout WRs, and I definitely could have waited on QB. As for TE, I honestly don't know what to think at this point; the position is such a wasteland.
  • Don't reach for an RB2 in the "RB dead zone". I feel like I do this every year, and while it occasionally works out, I'm really going to try not to overdraft the kinds of volume-based RBs that you usually find in this area of the draft. This year, that probably means I'm down on the likes of Montgomery, Edmonds, CEH, Jacobs, and Gibson. (Probably Miles Sanders, too, but I need to do a little more research on him.)
  • Don't draft a guy who's going to warp the rest of your picks. Been awhile since I made this mistake, but it most commonly happens when you take a guy (usually a RB) who's injured or suspended to start the season, and you feel compelled to reach for his handcuff a few rounds early, or go RB-heavy in the first few rounds, or something else you might not have planned on doing. Especially given the pressure cooker of a live draft, introducing an additional wildcard element into your strategy is generally a bad idea, or at least it is for me. So I generally cross those types of players off my list. Good news is I don't think there's anyone who meets those criteria this year. D-Hop, maybe, but a) he's not going so early that he's going to blow up your draft strategy, and b) you should probably be going WR-heavy in your later rounds regardless.
What are some others?
 

Gally

Footballguy
I see many people do this and I have found I draft a much better team when I avoid this type of thinking. Don't plan your draft position by position. By that I mean going in with the mindset that you will take a RB in round 1, WR in round 2, TE in round 3, RB in 4, WR in 5......etc. You miss way too much value. I find it much better to put in the time and effort into a combined draft board and stick to that and trust the time and effort you put into it before hand.

A second thing is to worry about bye weeks for the first 10 rounds. I have missed out on players I really wanted because they had the same bye week as someone I drafted a round or two earlier. It's one week. In fact, there is an advantage to having almost all of your players having the same bye week. You have one bad week but then are strong the rest of the way. Spreading it out only really lowers your overall team strength for multiple weeks. Now if you have the bench for backup of single player positions then I might take bye's into consideration.
 

wlwiles

Footballguy
I see many people do this and I have found I draft a much better team when I avoid this type of thinking. Don't plan your draft position by position. By that I mean going in with the mindset that you will take a RB in round 1, WR in round 2, TE in round 3, RB in 4, WR in 5......etc. You miss way too much value. I find it much better to put in the time and effort into a combined draft board and stick to that and trust the time and effort you put into it before hand.
This is tough to do even if you've been playing a while and have done tons of drafts. I don't ever enter a draft thinking "gotta go WR in R2, RB in R3", but during the draft at some point I'm going to look at my team and my rankings and think "oh man I've got 4 WRs and only 2 RBs already, and theres only 3 more RBs i like out of the next ~7, so I better grab one next pick". And I have to fight every urge in my body to not do it if I recognize a TE or WR value on the board when it comes to me. It's tough to not give into that thinking.

My tip is to keep in mind good vs. bad offenses. It's generally good to get a piece of good offenses, duh. But bad offenses make good fantasy players too. Don't go into a draft thinking "I'm avoiding all Seahawks" because you could miss value when Lockett falls to far. But on the flipside, if you draft a team full of Brandin Cooks and DK Metcalf and ETN type guys all from bad offenses, recognize that your fantasy team is going to be very boom/bust. Not saying don't draft those guys, but don't draft a team full of those guys. Sprinkle a Bill or Charger or Chief or Buccaneer in there somewhere.
 

Grid71

Footballguy
Still one of my biggest drafting issues is go-go gadget arms for flier picks. Fall in love with targeting too many late round picks to the point my last 5 rounds I have to start reaching before running out of roster space. End up with blinders on for mid-late round picks passing up value. This season is no different.

Not saying it’s always bad because one year Gadget got me Lamar Jackson and AJ Brown on all my rosters. But most of the time it’s better to take some high floor options.
 

MTskibum

Footballguy
For about 6 years I did not do any research except for some dynasty league rookie research.

Safe to say my teams have been awful.

I think following the NFL and research of players is pretty important. We will see if that helps this year.....
 
For players that play in several leagues 15+. Not putting all my eggs in the same basket, especially in those 2/3 rounds. Spreading out the love trying to stay no higher than 30% ownership.

Having guys in my queue only to watch them go to other teams. Grab your guy and don’t worry too much about ADP after 10-12 rounds.
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
One from my early days -- I don't do this any more, but I occasionally have to remind myself:

While I try to draft "best available", there's a limit. You still have to build a roster. And the trap I used to find myself in, especially if I'm at one of the ends, was taking my BPA without considering overall roster construction.

So each round I'd compare WR to TE to RB. And time and time again, I would say to myself, "Oh, easy call - I don't like any of the RB here". Which is ok, provided you don't keep doing that for 10+ rounds.

I know an entire drafting philosophy has emerged over zero RB, but I'm not a fan, nor do I think I ever will be. The closest I get (and am leaning towards this year) is "hero RB" where I grab one in the 1st two rounds, then stack up on WR, TE, QB, etc., then grab up the scrubby RB. But I never like the idea of getting to that 8-9-10 round without a serviceable RB on my roster. Especially if I'm choosing between a WR5 and a RB1 for my roster - regardless that the WR is a better value, I need to respect the fact that the RBs are not likely to get better the longer the draft goes on - in fact, they're guaranteed to get worse.

So yeah - sacrificing just a little bit of value for roster construction isn't the worst way to build a team. Being aware of the tiers is a great way to manage this. I don't mind waiting if I think a RB from the same tier is going to be there with my next pick. But if it's at a point where I'm going to see a several tier drop=off? Grab the RB. Especially with more and more teams doing some kind of zero/hero RB strategy these days. Because almost everyone in your league is looking to draft those late round RBs these days, somewhat negating the chances of success.
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
  • Don't reach for an RB2 in the "RB dead zone". I feel like I do this every year, and while it occasionally works out, I'm really going to try not to overdraft the kinds of volume-based RBs that you usually find in this area of the draft. This year, that probably means I'm down on the likes of Montgomery, Edmonds, CEH, Jacobs, and Gibson. (Probably Miles Sanders, too, but I need to do a little more research on him.)
I respectfully disagree a bit with this one. It kind of varies year to year.

I like the concept, and I respect the research FF analysts have done. But my "dead zone" RB last year was Javonte Williams, and he was one of my best picks. Similarly this year, there seem to be quite a few really solid targets in that 4-5-6 round range, so I do hope people talk up the "dead zone" negativity again, because I'd love to be able to get some of those guys there this year.

I would add this to the list of things I don't want to do in drafts:
  • take any general strategy or theory and over-apply it to my draft
I've learned to let drafts come to me. As a general idea, sure - you can get burned by those RBs. But this year in particular there are a few guys coming off of injury, players might slide to you - it's the nature of random drafting. People reach for players all the time, so I can't entirely overlook the "dead zone" until I see who's on the board when I'm picking there.

Sanders is actually going in the 8th, and I'd consider him if I went WR/TE early. Gibson is going pretty late as well. The DZ RB's I'd avoid this year are guys like Jacobs, Gibson & ETN. But JK Dobbins, Akers, Mitchell, and even Zeke are pretty appealing. Of course YMMV on who's available, and where as we get more into redraft season. I guess I just hate the idea of writing guys off who could have quite a bit of value - I need to see the name, then decide if I want them. If that happens to be in the "dead zone" that's ok - I don't wanna write off a whole range of picks at a position because there's a popular theory about it.
 

Cadence calls

Footballguy
I agree with this.
We aren’t paid fantasy professionals, and there are guys/teams
we just bypass.
For whatever reason, there are always guys who I didn’t pay enough attn to.
Id say those players are sleepers, but only because I didn’t do the homework.

Of course, there’s always the guys that I DID do the homework on, and nobody else did.
Ill go a few years back and throw out names like Josh Gordon, Alfred Morris, Eric Decker, Alston Jeffrey
If you did your homework, good chance you were on those guys.

Cant win em all. If we could we would be running the show instead of posting in forums.
 

Cadence calls

Footballguy
I’ll put this up here because I just posted in the Sun God thread.

Disregarding Sun God is the type of mistake I’ll make.
He didn’t test well, and compared to other USC guys of the past, nothing stood out.
Great NFL feeder program, though.
Yet he produced at USC when asked to. And has bloodlines And a hunger to be great.

Id put Hunter Renfrow in the same class of player. Even worse ,easurables than Sun God,
but amazing clutch production, make up, and great feeder program.

Sun God and Renfrow are the kinds of guys we miss all the time, because they don’t measure up, physically.
But mentally, these guys are studs.
(I do have plenty of shares of both, but I should have had more)
 

Cadence calls

Footballguy
Guys I missed out on over the years because of measurable or helmet scouting:
Alvin Kamara
Michael Thomas
Deebo Samuel
Cooper Kupp
Marshawn Lymch
Tyreek Hill
James Connor
Arian Foster
Kurt Warner
Marquez Colston
it goes on and on….
 

TheWinz

Footballguy
1) Start your draft sober
Sure, enjoy the suds, because draft day is the funnest day of the year, but pop your first beer after you make your first pick. I bet I am not the only one who has woken up the next day to the worst drafted team in FF history.

2) Resist the urge to draft K's and D's early
I don't do it anymore, but there's always someone who will. Don't become so happy with your starting lineup that you forego your depth. Just keep taking your backups until the end, where K's and D's should be drafted. Heck, you may even want to not draft them at all, depending on your draft day and rules.

3) Don't get discouraged if you don't like your draft slot
Remember, the current season has not played out yet, so every spot is Schroedinger's Cat, if you will. Anything can happen, and usually does during the season. The reason I wrote this mistake was because of a fellow owner a few years back. He got the 11th spot in a 12-teamer, and basically quit before the season began. Don't be that clown.

4) Don't draft someone else's team
By this, I mean don't just draft off some website's cheatsheet. Sure, you have to start somewhere, but at least tweak it to your liking. I don't draft like a homer, but I will be shocked if Dustin Hopkins isn't on my roster. Go Chargers!
 

InDitkaWeTrust

Footballguy
One from my early days -- I don't do this any more, but I occasionally have to remind myself:

While I try to draft "best available", there's a limit. You still have to build a roster. And the trap I used to find myself in, especially if I'm at one of the ends, was taking my BPA without considering overall roster construction.

So each round I'd compare WR to TE to RB. And time and time again, I would say to myself, "Oh, easy call - I don't like any of the RB here". Which is ok, provided you don't keep doing that for 10+ rounds.

I know an entire drafting philosophy has emerged over zero RB, but I'm not a fan, nor do I think I ever will be. The closest I get (and am leaning towards this year) is "hero RB" where I grab one in the 1st two rounds, then stack up on WR, TE, QB, etc., then grab up the scrubby RB. But I never like the idea of getting to that 8-9-10 round without a serviceable RB on my roster. Especially if I'm choosing between a WR5 and a RB1 for my roster - regardless that the WR is a better value, I need to respect the fact that the RBs are not likely to get better the longer the draft goes on - in fact, they're guaranteed to get worse.

So yeah - sacrificing just a little bit of value for roster construction isn't the worst way to build a team. Being aware of the tiers is a great way to manage this. I don't mind waiting if I think a RB from the same tier is going to be there with my next pick. But if it's at a point where I'm going to see a several tier drop=off? Grab the RB. Especially with more and more teams doing some kind of zero/hero RB strategy these days. Because almost everyone in your league is looking to draft those late round RBs these days, somewhat negating the chances of success.
I've done this to myself a time or too as well. Before I really understood what how to jncorp value based drafting into my own particular leagues. Thanks for the good reminder that roster composition and building a competitive roster are rarely as formulaic as we want them to be.
 

InDitkaWeTrust

Footballguy
I’ll put this up here because I just posted in the Sun God thread.

Disregarding Sun God is the type of mistake I’ll make.
He didn’t test well, and compared to other USC guys of the past, nothing stood out.
Great NFL feeder program, though.
Yet he produced at USC when asked to. And has bloodlines And a hunger to be great.

Id put Hunter Renfrow in the same class of player. Even worse ,easurables than Sun God,
but amazing clutch production, make up, and great feeder program.

Sun God and Renfrow are the kinds of guys we miss all the time, because they don’t measure up, physically.
But mentally, these guys are studs.
(I do have plenty of shares of both, but I should have had more)
We often miss these types because they are the exception to the rule and it is quite difficult to measure some of the mental aspects of the game.
 

InDitkaWeTrust

Footballguy
The biggest trap I get myself into during fast drafts is getting swept up in the inevitable positional runs that always happen. I also will often get discouraged when my guy is taken a few picks in front of me and make emotional picks instead of rational, value based picks.
 

joey

Footballguy
I’ll put this up here because I just posted in the Sun God thread.

Disregarding Sun God is the type of mistake I’ll make.
He didn’t test well, and compared to other USC guys of the past, nothing stood out.
Great NFL feeder program, though.
Yet he produced at USC when asked to. And has bloodlines And a hunger to be great.

Id put Hunter Renfrow in the same class of player. Even worse ,easurables than Sun God,
but amazing clutch production, make up, and great feeder program.

Sun God and Renfrow are the kinds of guys we miss all the time, because they don’t measure up, physically.
But mentally, these guys are studs.
(I do have plenty of shares of both, but I should have had more)
Sun god? Am I the only one who has no clue who that is?
 

brun

Footballguy
The biggest trap I get myself into during fast drafts is getting swept up in the inevitable positional runs that always happen. I also will often get discouraged when my guy is taken a few picks in front of me and make emotional picks instead of rational, value based picks.
Just saw 1 of these runs in a slow draft I'm in. Pretty sure at least a couple of these drafters deviated from their original plan.
$35 FFPC BB DRAFT
6.11 Lamar Jackson
7.1 thru 7.6 all QBs as well
 

Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
I’ll put this up here because I just posted in the Sun God thread.

Disregarding Sun God is the type of mistake I’ll make.
He didn’t test well, and compared to other USC guys of the past, nothing stood out.
Great NFL feeder program, though.
Yet he produced at USC when asked to. And has bloodlines And a hunger to be great.

Id put Hunter Renfrow in the same class of player. Even worse ,easurables than Sun God,
but amazing clutch production, make up, and great feeder program.

Sun God and Renfrow are the kinds of guys we miss all the time, because they don’t measure up, physically.
But mentally, these guys are studs.
(I do have plenty of shares of both, but I should have had more)
Sun god? Am I the only one who has no clue who that is?
Ra is the Egyptian Sun God - so Amon Ra St. Brown.
 

Deranged Hermit

Not cool & Pissed
  • You can splurge on a QB or TE, but not both. Last year I took Hock in the fourth round and Russ in the fifth. The irony is they both played pretty well until they got hurt, but I still think that was a mistake (especially the Russ part). Those are the rounds to target breakout WRs, and I definitely could have waited on QB. As for TE, I honestly don't know what to think at this point; the position is such a wasteland.
Sound advice. I made this mistake last year and it wrecked my WR Corp. I took a TE early (Kittle, I think) and than Kyler Murray looked too good to be true in the next round. As a result of taking them, I was chasing wr the rest of the draft.
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
The biggest trap I get myself into during fast drafts is getting swept up in the inevitable positional runs that always happen. I also will often get discouraged when my guy is taken a few picks in front of me and make emotional picks instead of rational, value based picks.
This one is really solid, and isn’t mentioned nearly enough in these topics. And the closer to my own pick, the more it effects me. If I just waited ~20 picks and the dude goes one. pick. before me. And even worse, if he’s the last of a tier.

2 mins on the clock is a long time. It’s much shorter if you’re sitting there gobsmacked for 60 seconds.
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
The biggest trap I get myself into during fast drafts is getting swept up in the inevitable positional runs that always happen. I also will often get discouraged when my guy is taken a few picks in front of me and make emotional picks instead of rational, value based picks.
Just saw 1 of these runs in a slow draft I'm in. Pretty sure at least a couple of these drafters deviated from their original plan.
$35 FFPC BB DRAFT
6.11 Lamar Jackson
7.1 thru 7.6 all QBs as well
That’s a brutal run, especially if you’re at the 8-9-10 spot and had been waiting on a QB. Massive tier free fall after those 7 QBs, too. That’s when you think, “well #### it, I guess I’m rolling with Derick Carr & Goff.” and wait 6-7 more rounds on a QB.
 

brun

Footballguy
The biggest trap I get myself into during fast drafts is getting swept up in the inevitable positional runs that always happen. I also will often get discouraged when my guy is taken a few picks in front of me and make emotional picks instead of rational, value based picks.
Just saw 1 of these runs in a slow draft I'm in. Pretty sure at least a couple of these drafters deviated from their original plan.
$35 FFPC BB DRAFT
6.11 Lamar Jackson
7.1 thru 7.6 all QBs as well
That’s a brutal run, especially if you’re at the 8-9-10 spot and had been waiting on a QB. Massive tier free fall after those 7 QBs, too. That’s when you think, “well #### it, I guess I’m rolling with Derick Carr & Goff.” and wait 6-7 more rounds on a QB.
Yeah. I actually had the 8th pick in that round. Usually I'm looking for my 1st QB starting in the 8th round and often end with someone like Brady or Dak, who I'm very happy with. So many teams have QBs now but with just 2 teams behind me that still need QBs, it's possible that Dak, Stafford, Rodgers, Cousins or Carr will be available to me in the next 2 rounds (though I doubt Dak will come back to me for my next pick).
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
The biggest trap I get myself into during fast drafts is getting swept up in the inevitable positional runs that always happen. I also will often get discouraged when my guy is taken a few picks in front of me and make emotional picks instead of rational, value based picks.
Just saw 1 of these runs in a slow draft I'm in. Pretty sure at least a couple of these drafters deviated from their original plan.
$35 FFPC BB DRAFT
6.11 Lamar Jackson
7.1 thru 7.6 all QBs as well
That’s a brutal run, especially if you’re at the 8-9-10 spot and had been waiting on a QB. Massive tier free fall after those 7 QBs, too. That’s when you think, “well #### it, I guess I’m rolling with Derick Carr & Goff.” and wait 6-7 more rounds on a QB.
Yeah. I actually had the 8th pick in that round. Usually I'm looking for my 1st QB starting in the 8th round and often end with someone like Brady or Dak, who I'm very happy with. So many teams have QBs now but with just 2 teams behind me that still need QBs, it's possible that Dak, Stafford, Rodgers, Cousins or Carr will be available to me in the next 2 rounds (though I doubt Dak will come back to me for my next pick).
I’d be very tempted to take Dak there. Sometimes it’s not a bad thing to glom onto the end of a run if the value is right, and IMO at that spot Dak has a lot of upside & room for a profit. If he makes it to you, I’d jump on it.
 

joey

Footballguy
I’ll put this up here because I just posted in the Sun God thread.

Disregarding Sun God is the type of mistake I’ll make.
He didn’t test well, and compared to other USC guys of the past, nothing stood out.
Great NFL feeder program, though.
Yet he produced at USC when asked to. And has bloodlines And a hunger to be great.

Id put Hunter Renfrow in the same class of player. Even worse ,easurables than Sun God,
but amazing clutch production, make up, and great feeder program.

Sun God and Renfrow are the kinds of guys we miss all the time, because they don’t measure up, physically.
But mentally, these guys are studs.
(I do have plenty of shares of both, but I should have had more)
Sun god? Am I the only one who has no clue who that is?
Ra is the Egyptian Sun God - so Amon Ra St. Brown.
looking for the “meh” reaction emoji :wink:
(thanks)
 

Gally

Footballguy
One from my early days -- I don't do this any more, but I occasionally have to remind myself:

While I try to draft "best available", there's a limit. You still have to build a roster. And the trap I used to find myself in, especially if I'm at one of the ends, was taking my BPA without considering overall roster construction.

So each round I'd compare WR to TE to RB. And time and time again, I would say to myself, "Oh, easy call - I don't like any of the RB here". Which is ok, provided you don't keep doing that for 10+ rounds.

I know an entire drafting philosophy has emerged over zero RB, but I'm not a fan, nor do I think I ever will be. The closest I get (and am leaning towards this year) is "hero RB" where I grab one in the 1st two rounds, then stack up on WR, TE, QB, etc., then grab up the scrubby RB. But I never like the idea of getting to that 8-9-10 round without a serviceable RB on my roster. Especially if I'm choosing between a WR5 and a RB1 for my roster - regardless that the WR is a better value, I need to respect the fact that the RBs are not likely to get better the longer the draft goes on - in fact, they're guaranteed to get worse.

So yeah - sacrificing just a little bit of value for roster construction isn't the worst way to build a team. Being aware of the tiers is a great way to manage this. I don't mind waiting if I think a RB from the same tier is going to be there with my next pick. But if it's at a point where I'm going to see a several tier drop=off? Grab the RB. Especially with more and more teams doing some kind of zero/hero RB strategy these days. Because almost everyone in your league is looking to draft those late round RBs these days, somewhat negating the chances of success.
I think this is mostly applicable to drafting on an end (which I much prefer to do). You have to get ahead of runs and "reach" for guys because of the number of picks between yours. This alters the landscape and you must take that into consideration and really plan your draft as it is unfolding.
 

Stinkin Ref

IBL Representative
I find myself locking in on certain players because my gut thinks it's the smartest gut in the room.....and then I probably end up reaching a little when I probably could have waited another round or so for that player...

example for this year.....my gut is telling me that Everett needs to be on every one of my teams as at least my TE2...... and since I will be drinking at all my drafts I will probably end up talking myself into the fact that.....screw that he can actually be my TE1 muther f'er!!!..... and will announce him as the SOD when I take him in the later rounds (all be it a round earlier then I needed too)....and I will wake up the next day with a WDIS nightmare each week of Everett, Engram, Hooper or frickin Mo Allie Cox....
 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
One mistake that has burned me a few times and is fresh in my mind from last year: expecting my other league mates to make rational/predictable moves in the draft. For example, last year I really liked Jalen Hurts' value at QB. I was coming up in the 8th or 9th round and he was the top QB on my board by a long shot. I looked though and the 6 or 7 guys drafting after me all had taken a QB already. So I took another WR assuming those 6 or 7 guys that would all have two picks before me wouldn't be looking at QB. Then right before it came back to me, the person who drafted Dak two rounds earlier drafted Hurts. I jumped out of my chair was like "WTF are you doing, you just took Dak!". He didn't really have an answer, he just shrugged and said he didn't like the other players available at that spot. I kept just missing out on the QBs I wanted and it became a huge problem for me to start the season. I am pretty sure the guy I took instead of Hurts ended up being a total dud as well.

It happened to me a couple years ago as well when I drafted out of the 11 spot. The guy at 12 was an old school player that loves his RBs. I was positive he was going to start his draft RB-RB because he plays fantasy football like it's still 2004. So while I preferred 2 WRs to the top RB on the board, I figured I could take the RB in round 1 and when it came back around both WRs would still be available. Or at least 1 of the WRs, no way this guy starts his draft with 2 WRs. Well sure enough he went WR-WR and I got stuck having to make a pick that I didn't love.

So while it's smart to pay attention to the rosters and tendencies of your league mates, remember people are often unpredictable. People make weird decisions after a couple of beers when the pressure is on. Don't get too cute, take the players you like best or that your team needs.
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Don't overprepare. Hang out in the SP starting in early August, to get a vibe for the league. Use the DD for the heavy lifting. Go for a nice walk.

It's just magic football.
I like this approach a lot. This is essentially what I do now. With the exception that I do a ton of research in early August, and then follow the news on the players that I think I like as my draft gets closer… Then I try to clear my head and go into the draft with an open mind, using the DD to help guide my Zen experience.
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
One mistake that has burned me a few times and is fresh in my mind from last year: expecting my other league mates to make rational/predictable moves in the draft. For example, last year I really liked Jalen Hurts' value at QB. I was coming up in the 8th or 9th round and he was the top QB on my board by a long shot. I looked though and the 6 or 7 guys drafting after me all had taken a QB already. So I took another WR assuming those 6 or 7 guys that would all have two picks before me wouldn't be looking at QB. Then right before it came back to me, the person who drafted Dak two rounds earlier drafted Hurts. I jumped out of my chair was like "WTF are you doing, you just took Dak!". He didn't really have an answer, he just shrugged and said he didn't like the other players available at that spot. I kept just missing out on the QBs I wanted and it became a huge problem for me to start the season. I am pretty sure the guy I took instead of Hurts ended up being a total dud as well.

It happened to me a couple years ago as well when I drafted out of the 11 spot. The guy at 12 was an old school player that loves his RBs. I was positive he was going to start his draft RB-RB because he plays fantasy football like it's still 2004. So while I preferred 2 WRs to the top RB on the board, I figured I could take the RB in round 1 and when it came back around both WRs would still be available. Or at least 1 of the WRs, no way this guy starts his draft with 2 WRs. Well sure enough he went WR-WR and I got stuck having to make a pick that I didn't love.

So while it's smart to pay attention to the rosters and tendencies of your league mates, remember people are often unpredictable. People make weird decisions after a couple of beers when the pressure is on. Don't get too cute, take the players you like best or that your team needs.
This one is so critically important. The exact same thing happened to me last year when the team that took Hurts in the sixth then took Lamar Jackson in the seventh. Every other team had a quarterback already, so naturally, I took a wide receiver there.

I was absolutely dumbfounded

But you said it perfectly: you cannot expect people to behave rationally during a draft. When there is a ticking clock and they’re shuffling through papers, sometimes they will pick irrationally because of the pressure, and sometimes they will kick irrationally because they’re reaching for a player, and sometimes they are picking irrationally simply because they are not rational.

If your player is there and they are a value, scoop them up regardless of what the other teams have done. You just can’t predict with any degree of accuracy what’s going to be there for you in the next round.
 

Chaka

Footballguy
This probably won't be popular but, IMO, playing in too many leagues is a mistake. From a draft perspective it will absolutely impact your judgment. How many posts in the SP say something like "I am limiting my number of 'shares' of Player X just in case he's a dud this year...". "Shares"? Really? If you use language like that, you're in far too many leagues, again IMHO. It's not a job it's a hobby we play for fun. If you like Player X then draft him and have fun regardless of how it turns out.
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Don't play magic football for the money. My league is a 12 team, $200 entry with weekly payouts and playoff cash etc. The money definitely adds spice to the mix but it is primarily an incentive to keep owners from losing interest later in the season. Is winning cash really why we play? Does anyone flash their fat stacks of cash at the end of the year or do you crow over the Championship you just won? If you play because of the cash you may have a gambling problem.
 

Scoresman

Footballguy
20+ year auction league vet and this year I realized I often make the mistake of paying for studs early and not having enough cash to round out my roster with the guys I think I should still be able to get. Last year I jumped on CMC and Kelce early and targeted a few receivers of a certain tier. Turns out I only had budget for receivers 2-3 tiers lower than what I thought. So my depth went to ****.

This year, most of my research has been based on historical player prices over the last 6 years. It's amazing how similar pricing has been over the years in our league. So this year, I have my budgeted price per player based on VORP/VBD, but I also added the estimated price the players will go for based on the history of our league. Should give me a big leg up in being able to better predict player prices and plan out a team on the fly.
 

Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
One mistake that has burned me a few times and is fresh in my mind from last year: expecting my other league mates to make rational/predictable moves in the draft. For example, last year I really liked Jalen Hurts' value at QB. I was coming up in the 8th or 9th round and he was the top QB on my board by a long shot. I looked though and the 6 or 7 guys drafting after me all had taken a QB already. So I took another WR assuming those 6 or 7 guys that would all have two picks before me wouldn't be looking at QB. Then right before it came back to me, the person who drafted Dak two rounds earlier drafted Hurts. I jumped out of my chair was like "WTF are you doing, you just took Dak!". He didn't really have an answer, he just shrugged and said he didn't like the other players available at that spot. I kept just missing out on the QBs I wanted and it became a huge problem for me to start the season. I am pretty sure the guy I took instead of Hurts ended up being a total dud as well.

It happened to me a couple years ago as well when I drafted out of the 11 spot. The guy at 12 was an old school player that loves his RBs. I was positive he was going to start his draft RB-RB because he plays fantasy football like it's still 2004. So while I preferred 2 WRs to the top RB on the board, I figured I could take the RB in round 1 and when it came back around both WRs would still be available. Or at least 1 of the WRs, no way this guy starts his draft with 2 WRs. Well sure enough he went WR-WR and I got stuck having to make a pick that I didn't love.

So while it's smart to pay attention to the rosters and tendencies of your league mates, remember people are often unpredictable. People make weird decisions after a couple of beers when the pressure is on. Don't get too cute, take the players you like best or that your team needs.
This is why I don't think ADP is as valuable as people make it out to be - especially in local fantasy leagues. Just because Miles Sanders is going in Round 8 in 1,000s of mocks doesn't mean some one in my league isn't taking him in Round 6.
The concept of "reaching" - which is directly related to ADP- has always bothered me a bit as well. I'm not advocating grabbing some one 5 rounds earlier than where they "should be" going but if you really want a guy and not sure how your league feels about that guy, grab him.
 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
One mistake that has burned me a few times and is fresh in my mind from last year: expecting my other league mates to make rational/predictable moves in the draft. For example, last year I really liked Jalen Hurts' value at QB. I was coming up in the 8th or 9th round and he was the top QB on my board by a long shot. I looked though and the 6 or 7 guys drafting after me all had taken a QB already. So I took another WR assuming those 6 or 7 guys that would all have two picks before me wouldn't be looking at QB. Then right before it came back to me, the person who drafted Dak two rounds earlier drafted Hurts. I jumped out of my chair was like "WTF are you doing, you just took Dak!". He didn't really have an answer, he just shrugged and said he didn't like the other players available at that spot. I kept just missing out on the QBs I wanted and it became a huge problem for me to start the season. I am pretty sure the guy I took instead of Hurts ended up being a total dud as well.

It happened to me a couple years ago as well when I drafted out of the 11 spot. The guy at 12 was an old school player that loves his RBs. I was positive he was going to start his draft RB-RB because he plays fantasy football like it's still 2004. So while I preferred 2 WRs to the top RB on the board, I figured I could take the RB in round 1 and when it came back around both WRs would still be available. Or at least 1 of the WRs, no way this guy starts his draft with 2 WRs. Well sure enough he went WR-WR and I got stuck having to make a pick that I didn't love.

So while it's smart to pay attention to the rosters and tendencies of your league mates, remember people are often unpredictable. People make weird decisions after a couple of beers when the pressure is on. Don't get too cute, take the players you like best or that your team needs.
This is why I don't think ADP is as valuable as people make it out to be - especially in local fantasy leagues. Just because Miles Sanders is going in Round 8 in 1,000s of mocks doesn't mean some one in my league isn't taking him in Round 6.
The concept of "reaching" - which is directly related to ADP- has always bothered me a bit as well. I'm not advocating grabbing some one 5 rounds earlier than where they "should be" going but if you really want a guy and not sure how your league feels about that guy, grab him.
Absolutely and we have to remember that average is just that. Especially the deeper you get in drafts, the less helpful ADP becomes. Sure we all know how the first couple rounds are likely to go but once you are into the middle of drafts it becomes far less predictable and the range for where players go becomes quite wide. Maybe even more helpful than ADP would be standard deviation and range.
 

Chaka

Footballguy
One mistake that has burned me a few times and is fresh in my mind from last year: expecting my other league mates to make rational/predictable moves in the draft. For example, last year I really liked Jalen Hurts' value at QB. I was coming up in the 8th or 9th round and he was the top QB on my board by a long shot. I looked though and the 6 or 7 guys drafting after me all had taken a QB already. So I took another WR assuming those 6 or 7 guys that would all have two picks before me wouldn't be looking at QB. Then right before it came back to me, the person who drafted Dak two rounds earlier drafted Hurts. I jumped out of my chair was like "WTF are you doing, you just took Dak!". He didn't really have an answer, he just shrugged and said he didn't like the other players available at that spot. I kept just missing out on the QBs I wanted and it became a huge problem for me to start the season. I am pretty sure the guy I took instead of Hurts ended up being a total dud as well.

It happened to me a couple years ago as well when I drafted out of the 11 spot. The guy at 12 was an old school player that loves his RBs. I was positive he was going to start his draft RB-RB because he plays fantasy football like it's still 2004. So while I preferred 2 WRs to the top RB on the board, I figured I could take the RB in round 1 and when it came back around both WRs would still be available. Or at least 1 of the WRs, no way this guy starts his draft with 2 WRs. Well sure enough he went WR-WR and I got stuck having to make a pick that I didn't love.

So while it's smart to pay attention to the rosters and tendencies of your league mates, remember people are often unpredictable. People make weird decisions after a couple of beers when the pressure is on. Don't get too cute, take the players you like best or that your team needs.
This is why I don't think ADP is as valuable as people make it out to be - especially in local fantasy leagues. Just because Miles Sanders is going in Round 8 in 1,000s of mocks doesn't mean some one in my league isn't taking him in Round 6.
The concept of "reaching" - which is directly related to ADP- has always bothered me a bit as well. I'm not advocating grabbing some one 5 rounds earlier than where they "should be" going but if you really want a guy and not sure how your league feels about that guy, grab him.
Absolutely and we have to remember that average is just that. Especially the deeper you get in drafts, the less helpful ADP becomes. Sure we all know how the first couple rounds are likely to go but once you are into the middle of drafts it becomes far less predictable and the range for where players go becomes quite wide. Maybe even more helpful than ADP would be standard deviation and range.
When I used to put far, far, far too much time into my draft prep, I would add the draft range of every player to the notes section of the Classic DD. It wasn't entirely useless but I doubt the RoI ever justified the time spent.
 

facook

Footballguy
Still one of my biggest drafting issues is go-go gadget arms for flier picks. Fall in love with targeting too many late round picks to the point my last 5 rounds I have to start reaching before running out of roster space. End up with blinders on for mid-late round picks passing up value. This season is no different.

Not saying it’s always bad because one year Gadget got me Lamar Jackson and AJ Brown on all my rosters. But most of the time it’s better to take some high floor options.

100% my main issue. Fall in love with the hot name or names and thinking I need to have all of them on a team.
 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
Still one of my biggest drafting issues is go-go gadget arms for flier picks. Fall in love with targeting too many late round picks to the point my last 5 rounds I have to start reaching before running out of roster space. End up with blinders on for mid-late round picks passing up value. This season is no different.

Not saying it’s always bad because one year Gadget got me Lamar Jackson and AJ Brown on all my rosters. But most of the time it’s better to take some high floor options.
Outside of QBs and kickers, I’m not sure there are any high floor guys in the double digit rounds.
 

wlwiles

Footballguy
One mistake that has burned me a few times and is fresh in my mind from last year: expecting my other league mates to make rational/predictable moves in the draft. For example, last year I really liked Jalen Hurts' value at QB. I was coming up in the 8th or 9th round and he was the top QB on my board by a long shot. I looked though and the 6 or 7 guys drafting after me all had taken a QB already. So I took another WR assuming those 6 or 7 guys that would all have two picks before me wouldn't be looking at QB. Then right before it came back to me, the person who drafted Dak two rounds earlier drafted Hurts. I jumped out of my chair was like "WTF are you doing, you just took Dak!". He didn't really have an answer, he just shrugged and said he didn't like the other players available at that spot. I kept just missing out on the QBs I wanted and it became a huge problem for me to start the season. I am pretty sure the guy I took instead of Hurts ended up being a total dud as well.

It happened to me a couple years ago as well when I drafted out of the 11 spot. The guy at 12 was an old school player that loves his RBs. I was positive he was going to start his draft RB-RB because he plays fantasy football like it's still 2004. So while I preferred 2 WRs to the top RB on the board, I figured I could take the RB in round 1 and when it came back around both WRs would still be available. Or at least 1 of the WRs, no way this guy starts his draft with 2 WRs. Well sure enough he went WR-WR and I got stuck having to make a pick that I didn't love.

So while it's smart to pay attention to the rosters and tendencies of your league mates, remember people are often unpredictable. People make weird decisions after a couple of beers when the pressure is on. Don't get too cute, take the players you like best or that your team needs.
This one is so critically important. The exact same thing happened to me last year when the team that took Hurts in the sixth then took Lamar Jackson in the seventh. Every other team had a quarterback already, so naturally, I took a wide receiver there.

I was absolutely dumbfounded

But you said it perfectly: you cannot expect people to behave rationally during a draft. When there is a ticking clock and they’re shuffling through papers, sometimes they will pick irrationally because of the pressure, and sometimes they will kick irrationally because they’re reaching for a player, and sometimes they are picking irrationally simply because they are not rational.

If your player is there and they are a value, scoop them up regardless of what the other teams have done. You just can’t predict with any degree of accuracy what’s going to be there for you in the next round.
Absolutely agree with every bit of this, and it may be the most important piece in this thread. Don't ever assume your leaguemates will do the rational thing. The guy that took Andrews in the 2nd may try and grab Goedert in the 8th if he's there. Waiting on a position is ok but do it at your own peril. The guy that took Mahomes in the 4th will absolutely try and take Brady in the 7th.

And if you've got someone that can't make the draft and has to auto-, be aware that the autodrafter is going to hunt for backups earlier than normal and it will NOT let a guy slide down the draft board past them. If everyone in the league is afraid of Kamara and shies away at the end of the first and you're sitting there at the 2.04 thinking "oh man he's mine"....the 2.03 autodrafter will snipe you every time.

Not that any of those specific things happened to me before...just speculating. :whistle:
 

shadrap

Footballguy
This probably won't be popular but, IMO, playing in too many leagues is a mistake. From a draft perspective it will absolutely impact your judgment. How many posts in the SP say something like "I am limiting my number of 'shares' of Player X just in case he's a dud this year...". "Shares"? Really? If you use language like that, you're in far too many leagues, again IMHO. It's not a job it's a hobby we play for fun. If you like Player X then draft him and have fun regardless of how it turns out.
agree. supposed to be fun. love rooting for my players on Sunday & managing my rosters throughout the week. I'm in 6 leagues. that is the number I can handle. I also draft a lot of the same guys in each league. if I like a guy I try to draft him. hate having to root against my guy on Sunday because someone else has them. bound to happen but I try to minimize it.
Get your players, watch your players, have fun. I don't look at live scoring until afternoon games start. I kind of know how things are going as I watch football.
 

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