What are top Rookie Draft Picks Worth? (1 Viewer)

[I was in the pool]

First year in a dynasty league and have been researching what rookie draft picks are worth as far as trading for established players.

What is the 1.1 pick worth in terms of players?

What is the 1.2 pick worth in terms of players?

What is the 1.3 pick worth in terms of players?

I know the value depends on the rookie class and how many uber-studs are thought to be there, but some general info. like 1.1 is typically worth an RB5-RB10 type player would be very helpful.

 

[Aabye]

First year in a dynasty league and have been researching what rookie draft picks are worth as far as trading for established players.

What is the 1.1 pick worth in terms of players?

What is the 1.2 pick worth in terms of players?

What is the 1.3 pick worth in terms of players?

I know the value depends on the rookie class and how many uber-studs are thought to be there, but some general info. like 1.1 is typically worth an RB5-RB10 type player would be very helpful.

Well, there are two ways to think about value:1. How much can I expect to pay for the 1.01, 1.02, etc. (and how much can you expect to get if you're selling them)?

2. What is the actual VBD expectation for these picks?

I can't answer #1 but I've done a fair amount of research on #2.

As you stated, the value depends on the players available at that spot, so just use 2011. There will probably be one RB selected in the mid-late first round (Ingram) and one top 5 WR (Green). The research I've done indicates that you're slightly better off taking the WR here but both picks have an actual expected career value of around 150-175 VBD points. That matches up pretty well with the remaining career fantasy values of the following groups:

A 26-year-old RB coming off of a top 10 season

A 24-year-old RB coming off of a season in which he finished between RB11 and RB20

A late 20's WR coming off of of a top 10 season

This thread is a little older but I found it to be very helpful as well.

 

[Childress]

I just moved the 1.1 in a PPR dynasty for DMC. I think the Raiders have found the formula for success and I think DMC will be a top 10 PPR RB for years (if healthy).

I think a top 10 RB > 1.1

I have had to many top tier players ruined by bad situations so I value the established players over the rookies potential.

 

[tdmills]

Hold the rookie picks until the rookie hype starts up. Currently it isn't that high, once the combine/Pro Days/interviews/draft day the value will be much much higher.

 

[Barry Foster]

Also, consider it REALLY depends on how deep your league is and how many players your league keeps, as well. But, yeah, definately wait until the rookie hype machine is going.

 

[Sinrman]

Hold the rookie picks until the rookie hype starts up. Currently it isn't that high, once the combine/Pro Days/interviews/draft day the value will be much much higher.

Could not agree more. Right now, we're still in the 2010 season. Once Late March/Early April comes around, things will REALLY heat up, and trades/interest will go through the roof, as it always does. Now the one thing to keep in mind is that if a CBA isn't worked out, all things (including the rookie draft) is a big ????

 

[RustyFA2]

I think it is a good year for FF drafts but think there is a hge drop off at 1.3 and a bigger one at 1.5.

The 1.1 ,IMO, is worth 1.4 and 1.6 or L McCoy this year. The 1.2 is worth 1.4 and 1.12 or McFadden.

 

[Steed]

Beto did a very relevant study on this.

 

[Dragon1952]

I think it is a good year for FF drafts but think there is a hge drop off at 1.3 and a bigger one at 1.5. The 1.1 ,IMO, is worth 1.4 and 1.6 or L McCoy this year. The 1.2 is worth 1.4 and 1.12 or McFadden.

I just received a trade offer for McFadden so I did a little research. Looking at 5 recent PPR start-up dynasty league drafts that included 2011 rookie picks in the draft McFadden went an average of 1/2 round prior to the 1.1 rookie pick. In 4 of the 5 drafts he went 1, 7, 12 and 22 spots ahead of the 1.1 rookie pick. In the other he went 10 spots after 1.1 and 2 spots after 1.2. As for McCoy, he has been going in the top 4-8 in most drafts, whereas the 1.1 rookie in the same 5 drafts above has gone 3.2, 2.12, 3.8, 2.5 and 3.1 So it appears that both are valued quite a bit above 1.1, especially McCoy. I suppose that could change a bit after the NFL draft but regardless of where the rookies go there is no way they should be worth equal to McFadden or McCoy, at least in PPR anyway, IMO.

 

[Concept Coop]

I think it is a good year for FF drafts but think there is a hge drop off at 1.3 and a bigger one at 1.5. The 1.1 ,IMO, is worth 1.4 and 1.6 or L McCoy this year. The 1.2 is worth 1.4 and 1.12 or McFadden.

The 1.02 is worth McFadden?! 1.01 McCoy?!

 

[Dr. Awesome]

I think it is a good year for FF drafts but think there is a hge drop off at 1.3 and a bigger one at 1.5. The 1.1 ,IMO, is worth 1.4 and 1.6 or L McCoy this year. The 1.2 is worth 1.4 and 1.12 or McFadden.

The 1.02 is worth McFadden?! 1.01 McCoy?!

What's shocking about that? McFadden and McCoy don't have the reputation of ADP/LBJ. And rookies are often overrated this time of year.

 

[Concept Coop]

I think it is a good year for FF drafts but think there is a hge drop off at 1.3 and a bigger one at 1.5. The 1.1 ,IMO, is worth 1.4 and 1.6 or L McCoy this year. The 1.2 is worth 1.4 and 1.12 or McFadden.

The 1.02 is worth McFadden?! 1.01 McCoy?!

What's shocking about that? McFadden and McCoy don't have the reputation of ADP/LBJ. And rookies are often overrated this time of year.

What is shocking about it? LeSean McCoy and Darren McFadden just finished top 3PPG at 22 and 23 years old. Please help me understand why AJ Green or Mark Ingram should be valued remotely close to that. Keeping in mind that WRs have a 50% hit rate, even when drafted in the top 10.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

I won't argue they SHOULD be worth that much. But they are. I have no idea why, but year after year folk get caught up in the hype of the next shiny new toy.

 

[MAC_32]

If I have a pick that can net me LeShoure or Ingram I'm probably not trading it unless someone thinks they're a future HoF'er and pays accordingly. If I'm picking 3, 4, or 5 and have a need at WR then I'm probably taking AJ Green or Julio Jones. If I don't have a need at WR and miss the top 2 RB's I'm finding the biggest Ryan Williams fan and trading the pick. If I'm picking outside the top 5 I'm trading for a #1 in 2012 because the next best player available (Jaquizz Rodgers) will probably be available in round 2.