What are you projecting for Portis (1 Viewer)

[gocats]

Im thinking somewhere in the neighborhood of 1300 yds 7 TDs 200/1 rec

Your thoughts people?

 

[dgreen]

Your rushing yards looks okay. You need more receiving yards, though, and I'd guess 10 total TDs.

 

[gocats]

Your rushing yards looks okay. You need more receiving yards, though, and I'd guess 10 total TDs.

Im thinking a couple TDs will get voltured by Duckett

 

[dgreen]

Your rushing yards looks okay. You need more receiving yards, though, and I'd guess 10 total TDs.

Im thinking a couple TDs will get voltured by Duckett

Well, of course they will. I'd predict 8 rush TDs and 2 rec. TDs. Before the Duckett thing, I would have said about 15 rush TDs.

 

[gorf]

1300 yds rushing, 7 TDs

350 receiving, 2 TDs

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

If he plays from Game 1 and stays healthy

1500 yards Rushing

12 total TD's

40 recp

400 yards

 

[Ron_Mexico]

If he plays from Game 1 and stays healthy1500 yards Rushing12 total TD's40 recp400 yards

Mighty lofty numbers.I don't see it.

 

[my man otis]

His avg rec yardage w/ both Den and Wash has been ~280 yards, so any more than 400 seems too high. He's also only had 4 rec TDs in his career, so any more than 3 is too much. I'll say 1 to be conservative.

Mid range:

Rush 1200/7

Rec 250/1

Total 1450/8

There's been some positive news from him, but now I'd say there is significant chance of these projections being both too high and too low.

Question is what's the % down vs upside.

40% chance - upside is last year's numbers, less 2 TDs - 1700 total yards + 9 TDs.

30% chance - downside is that he misses 2 games to injury, meaning 1150 total yards and 6 TDs.

I'm leaning towards taking him if he lasts late into the 1st when I pick (effectively 10th pick overall in my league)

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

Saunders offence is designed to pass to the RB in open space

Its Priest all over again

 

[dgreen]

His avg rec yardage w/ both Den and Wash has been ~280 yards, so any more than that seems too high.

I think he's been thrown like one or two screen in DC. And, the only ones I remember were with him lined up out wide as a receiver. Gibbs simply didn't use the traditional RB screens. Saunders does. Saunders is calling the plays. Holmes had back-to-back 70-catch seasons.

 

[gocats]

Saunders offence is designed to pass to the RB in open spaceIts Priest all over again

Priest got goaline carries

 

[my man otis]

His avg rec yardage w/ both Den and Wash has been ~280 yards, so any more than that seems too high.

I think he's been thrown like one or two screen in DC. And, the only ones I remember were with him lined up out wide as a receiver. Gibbs simply didn't use the traditional RB screens. Saunders does. Saunders is calling the plays. Holmes had back-to-back 70-catch seasons.

just realized that (long work week) and edited my post. i think projecting >400 is too optimistic though.

 

[dgreen]

Saunders offence is designed to pass to the RB in open spaceIts Priest all over again

Priest got goaline carries

Marino threw a lot of touchdowns.

 

[gocats]

His avg rec yardage w/ both Den and Wash has been ~280 yards, so any more than that seems too high.

I think he's been thrown like one or two screen in DC. And, the only ones I remember were with him lined up out wide as a receiver. Gibbs simply didn't use the traditional RB screens. Saunders does. Saunders is calling the plays. Holmes had back-to-back 70-catch seasons.

just realized that (long work week) and edited my post. i think projecting >400 is too optimistic though.

Thats about what I was projecting

 

[dgreen]

His avg rec yardage w/ both Den and Wash has been ~280 yards, so any more than that seems too high.

I think he's been thrown like one or two screen in DC. And, the only ones I remember were with him lined up out wide as a receiver. Gibbs simply didn't use the traditional RB screens. Saunders does. Saunders is calling the plays. Holmes had back-to-back 70-catch seasons.

just realized that (long work week) and edited my post. i think projecting >400 is too optimistic though.

I think 400 is where I'd put it. But, I won't be surprised to see 500+.

 

[my man otis]

His avg rec yardage w/ both Den and Wash has been ~280 yards, so any more than that seems too high.

I think he's been thrown like one or two screen in DC. And, the only ones I remember were with him lined up out wide as a receiver. Gibbs simply didn't use the traditional RB screens. Saunders does. Saunders is calling the plays. Holmes had back-to-back 70-catch seasons.

just realized that (long work week) and edited my post. i think projecting >400 is too optimistic though.

I think 400 is where I'd put it. But, I won't be surprised to see 500+.

hmmm, anyone know if the Wash OL is good at running screens, getting out into open space.It's all well and good to have an offense running more screens but if the OL isn't good at pulling it might not make much of a difference.

 

[dgreen]

His avg rec yardage w/ both Den and Wash has been ~280 yards, so any more than that seems too high.

I think he's been thrown like one or two screen in DC. And, the only ones I remember were with him lined up out wide as a receiver. Gibbs simply didn't use the traditional RB screens. Saunders does. Saunders is calling the plays. Holmes had back-to-back 70-catch seasons.

just realized that (long work week) and edited my post. i think projecting >400 is too optimistic though.

I think 400 is where I'd put it. But, I won't be surprised to see 500+.

hmmm, anyone know if the Wash OL is good at running screens, getting out into open space.It's all well and good to have an offense running more screens but if the OL isn't good at pulling it might not make much of a difference.

Randy Thomas is great in space. He did a lot of pulling on running plays. Derrick Dockery has been okay, but he lost some weight this year so he could be better on the run.

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

Saunders offence is designed to pass to the RB in open spaceIts Priest all over again

Priest got goaline carries

Are you sure Portis is not ?If so can I get a

 

[Markus P Dub]

How can he catch those screen passes when he can't lift his arm above his shoulder? I see Betts being that 3rd down back. Best case for Portis is to get his 4-8 touches a half in the middle of the field and then let TJ take it in from there. Worst case is he jacks his shoulder up again and goes under the knife.

750yds 5TDs

105 rec yds 0 TDs

 

[[icon]]

310 Carries (down 15% from last year)

1300 Yards (slgihtly less than career avg of 4.7ypc)

9 TDs (giving up 2 to Duckett)

40-45 Rec (increased involvement in passing game)

300 Yards (roughly his career avg of 8.0 YPC)

2 TDs

 

[gman8343]

How can he catch those screen passes when he can't lift his arm above his shoulder?

You don't think he'll heal this season at all?

 

[gocats]

Saunders offence is designed to pass to the RB in open spaceIts Priest all over again

Priest got goaline carries

Are you sure Portis is not ?If so can I get a

One would think the Skins gave up a 3rd rounder, so that TJ could be the shortyardage back and save CPs shoulder.

 

[Markus P Dub]

How can he catch those screen passes when he can't lift his arm above his shoulder?

You don't think he'll heal this season at all?

Well from what everyone has been saying, it could take only one good hit to jack him up. Plus wouldn't he be losing body strenght if he can't lift weights during the season? Hey I'm pissed too...I was a 4th pick guy and decided to take. S. Jax with my pick. Really wanted Portis but I hate to blow my pick on a guy who is damaged goods from the get. I hope he does well as he is fun to watch. And people can kid themselves all they want, but bringing in TJ is bad news for CP and he will loose those GL touches. That's all TJ has done for his career and as people have pointed out he is an efficient GL back.

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

Saunders offence is designed to pass to the RB in open spaceIts Priest all over again

Priest got goaline carries

Are you sure Portis is not ?If so can I get a

One would think the Skins gave up a 3rd rounder, so that TJ could be the shortyardage back and save CPs shoulder.

I don't doubt that TJ will get the odd series and some short yardage BUT are you sure he's gonna get the call at the stripe ??

 

[redman]

Your rushing yards looks okay. You need more receiving yards, though, and I'd guess 10 total TDs.

Im thinking a couple TDs will get voltured by Duckett

Well, of course they will. I'd predict 8 rush TDs and 2 rec. TDs. Before the Duckett thing, I would have said about 15 rush TDs.

Agreed. Working on the assumption that the coaching staff's goal to limit his carries even before the injury was in fact true, and upon the fact that the injury may force this to happen anyway, AND on the fact that they've got Duckett who can run effectively for them, I'm projecting 275 carries, but for a higher ypc average of 4.5. That gets me 1238 yards. There's less pounding with the receiving, but Betts is the best receiver out of the backfield on that team so he may get more receptions than Portis as the 3rd down back. My numbers as of now for Portis:rushing: 275/1238/8 recieving; 25/200/1

 

[dgreen]

How can he catch those screen passes when he can't lift his arm above his shoulder? I see Betts being that 3rd down back. Best case for Portis is to get his 4-8 touches a half in the middle of the field and then let TJ take it in from there. Worst case is he jacks his shoulder up again and goes under the knife.750yds 5TDs105 rec yds 0 TDs

 

[dgreen]

Betts is the best receiver out of the backfield on that team

I'm not sure about that. Portis has pretty good hands. Betts may have better hands (not by much, though, IMO), but can't nearly do the same things Portis can once he catches the ball.

 

[redman]

Betts is the best receiver out of the backfield on that team

I'm not sure about that. Portis has pretty good hands. Betts may have better hands (not by much, though, IMO), but can't nearly do the same things Portis can once he catches the ball.

I agree with Portis being better after the catch. The reason I rate Betts higher as a receiver is that he can run more routes than Portis can. For example, I've only ever seen Betts run the wheel route, never Portis. Brunell hit Betts on that route a couple of times last year and it was so smooth it was a thing of beauty. Portis runs simpler routes that tend to relegate him to a safety valve role on passing plays.

 

[dgreen]

Betts is the best receiver out of the backfield on that team

I'm not sure about that. Portis has pretty good hands. Betts may have better hands (not by much, though, IMO), but can't nearly do the same things Portis can once he catches the ball.

I agree with Portis being better after the catch. The reason I rate Betts higher as a receiver is that he can run more routes than Portis can. For example, I've only ever seen Betts run the wheel route, never Portis. Brunell hit Betts on that route a couple of times last year and it was so smooth it was a thing of beauty. Portis runs simpler routes that tend to relegate him to a safety valve role on passing plays.

Good point.Route running: advantage BettsHands: slight advantage BettsRAC yards: big advantage Portis

 

[redman]

Betts is the best receiver out of the backfield on that team

I'm not sure about that. Portis has pretty good hands. Betts may have better hands (not by much, though, IMO), but can't nearly do the same things Portis can once he catches the ball.

I agree with Portis being better after the catch. The reason I rate Betts higher as a receiver is that he can run more routes than Portis can. For example, I've only ever seen Betts run the wheel route, never Portis. Brunell hit Betts on that route a couple of times last year and it was so smooth it was a thing of beauty. Portis runs simpler routes that tend to relegate him to a safety valve role on passing plays.

Good point.Route running: advantage Betts

Hands: slight advantage Betts

RAC yards: big advantage Portis

Given the more aggressive routes that Betts can run, that last one may not be true. Running the same route and after the catch, I give the edge to Portis, but Betts has routes that have him catching the ball in stride at times.

 

[my man otis]

How can he catch those screen passes when he can't lift his arm above his shoulder?

You don't think he'll heal this season at all?

Well from what everyone has been saying, it could take only one good hit to jack him up. Plus wouldn't he be losing body strenght if he can't lift weights during the season? Hey I'm pissed too...I was a 4th pick guy and decided to take. S. Jax with my pick. Really wanted Portis but I hate to blow my pick on a guy who is damaged goods from the get. I hope he does well as he is fun to watch. And people can kid themselves all they want, but bringing in TJ is bad news for CP and he will loose those GL touches. That's all TJ has done for his career and as people have pointed out he is an efficient GL back.

to take this in another direction this would be true of any player.I agree that he may be at a greater advantage of being reinjured, but let's not go too far w/ this.

 

[Armando]

Duckett is going to take TD's away from Portis. Betts is going to see increased time. Please off your Portis fantasy football googles for a moment.Your looking at Willie Parker 2005 numbers in all likelihood. (Nothing bad at all, but no way does he score 13-15 TD's. Half that is possible).

The key for the team is making sure he's 100% at the end of the year.

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

Duckett is going to take TD's away from Portis. Betts is going to see increased time. Please off your Portis fantasy football googles for a moment.Your looking at Willie Parker 2005 numbers in all likelihood. (Nothing bad at all, but no way does he score 13-15 TD's. Half that is possible).The key for the team is making sure he's 100% at the end of the year.

Have to make the playoffs first and that NFC East is going to be toughNo way they can afford not to have Portis being a horse

 

[Armando]

Duckett is going to take TD's away from Portis. Betts is going to see increased time. Please off your Portis fantasy football googles for a moment.Your looking at Willie Parker 2005 numbers in all likelihood. (Nothing bad at all, but no way does he score 13-15 TD's. Half that is possible).The key for the team is making sure he's 100% at the end of the year.

Have to make the playoffs first and that NFC East is going to be toughNo way they can afford not to have Portis being a horse

I agree it'll be a struggle to make the playoffs. I think if they don't make it, it'll be because Brunell couldn't make it for the season. I think Brunell, not Portis, is the single most important part of that offense this year.Brunell isn't god, but Campbell will get eaten alive if he's got to play an extended period of time with the defenses in that division. I won't even start to talk about Todd Collins.

 

[Noahs Troopers]

If he plays from Game 1 and stays healthy1500 yards Rushing12 total TD's40 recp400 yards

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

If he plays from Game 1 and stays healthy1500 yards Rushing12 total TD's40 recp400 yards

You wish

 

[Noahs Troopers]

If he plays from Game 1 and stays healthy1500 yards Rushing12 total TD's40 recp400 yards

You wish

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

If he plays from Game 1 and stays healthy1500 yards Rushing12 total TD's40 recp400 yards

You wish

Stop pi$$ing in the pool

 

[Noahs Troopers]

If he plays from Game 1 and stays healthy1500 yards Rushing12 total TD's40 recp400 yards

You wish

Stop pi$$ing in the pool

Look whose talking. You're predicting the same rushing yards, 200 more receiving yards, 10 more catches and 1 more TD for a guy who all that has changed from this year to last is they brought in a goal line specialist and has a bum shoulder. Come on now.......

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

If he plays from Game 1 and stays healthy1500 yards Rushing12 total TD's40 recp400 yards

You wish

Stop pi$$ing in the pool

Look whose talking. You're predicting the same rushing yards, 200 more receiving yards, 10 more catches and 1 more TD for a guy who all that has changed from this year to last is they brought in a goal line specialist and has a bum shoulder. Come on now.......

Ummm O-line is Healthy this year and they brought in Al Saunders you know the OC that helped Priest get 27TD's 2 years ago.......................................

 

[Noahs Troopers]

If he plays from Game 1 and stays healthy1500 yards Rushing12 total TD's40 recp400 yards

You wish

Stop pi$$ing in the pool

Look whose talking. You're predicting the same rushing yards, 200 more receiving yards, 10 more catches and 1 more TD for a guy who all that has changed from this year to last is they brought in a goal line specialist and has a bum shoulder. Come on now.......

Ummm O-line is Healthy this year and they brought in Al Saunders you know the OC that helped Priest get 27TD's 2 years ago.......................................

We'll see i guess, it's ok to disagree, I'd drop him down to around 1200 rush, 300 receive and 8 TDS. Those aren't horrid numbers and would place him around RB #11 or so.

 

[Shiver44]

1,100 Rushing Yards

300 Receiving Yards

6 Touchdowns