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What % chance would you say D'Andre Swift becomes the clear-cut #1 RB for PHI now? (1 Viewer)

What % chance would you say D'Andre Swift becomes the clear-cut #1 RB for PHI now?


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Seems like the thread is actually asking what percentage split it will be if all PHI RB's are healthy
I don't think that's what he's asking. I think it's the percentage chance that he will become the clear leader in touches, which is completely different.
I disagree. Clear leader in touches is technically 1 more touch than any other RB. I doubt Joe is asking if Swift will out-touch Gainwell by a single touch. The question really is, what will the distribution be?
His question literally says "What percent chance Swift becomes the clear cut #1 back"... not sure how you could possibly think he's asking what percentage of touches he will get. He often asks the "what percent chance THIS will happen" questions.

I don't think "clear leader" means 1 more than the next best RB.

@Joe Bryant what did you mean?

Thanks. Meant exactly what I asked. Lots of people are talking about whether the Eagles backfield will stay unclear or if one RB can emerge as the clear cut #1.

After Thursday's game, lots of people are asking if Swift can be the clear cut #1. So I asked here to see what you folks thought.
Its just game 2 and Gainwell was hurt this week. Could things have changed after this last game? Sure but lets not forget Gainwell was the coachs guy and Swift is the newcomer. I know you didnt ask about the FF implications but that is what we do around here. Hurts cuts into the value of either of these 2 so in terms of FF I wouldnt want to depend on either for a key part of my FF team. If I had a magic 8 ball the answer would probably come up with reply hazy try again or cannot predict now.
 
It's his job to keep. It would be wise to limit his carries to about 15 per game. Swift's history has been not to play through minor injuries. But this is Swifts last chance to make a statement and earn a decent payday. I wous.d put it at 50-50 that he can keep the job and put up 1200 yards
 
It should also be noted that Gainwell, for whatever praises he receives from the coaching staff, is the definition of Just A Guy. He did get the bulk of carries week one but he didn’t do anything with them. Swift was electric Thursday and his receiving (which is why I was high in him before the season started) wasn’t even featured.
 
It should also be noted that Gainwell, for whatever praises he receives from the coaching staff, is the definition of Just A Guy. He did get the bulk of carries week one but he didn’t do anything with them. Swift was electric Thursday and his receiving (which is why I was high in him before the season started) wasn’t even featured.
I think you are minimizing the comparative quality of the New England vs Minnesota defenses.
 
It should also be noted that Gainwell, for whatever praises he receives from the coaching staff, is the definition of Just A Guy. He did get the bulk of carries week one but he didn’t do anything with them. Swift was electric Thursday and his receiving (which is why I was high in him before the season started) wasn’t even featured.
I think you are minimizing the comparative quality of the New England vs Minnesota defenses.
I’m not. I understand there is a chasm between those two defensive fronts. I’ve never thought Gainwell did anything at an elite level. Watching week 1 he was ho hum. Swift looked special albeit against a much more porous Dline.
 
It should also be noted that Gainwell, for whatever praises he receives from the coaching staff, is the definition of Just A Guy. He did get the bulk of carries week one but he didn’t do anything with them. Swift was electric Thursday and his receiving (which is why I was high in him before the season started) wasn’t even featured.
I think you are minimizing the comparative quality of the New England vs Minnesota defenses.
I’m not. I understand there is a chasm between those two defensive fronts. I’ve never thought Gainwell did anything at an elite level. Watching week 1 he was ho hum. Swift looked special albeit against a much more porous Dline.
You say you're accounting for the difference but immediately return to the former narrative.

You see that, right?

FTR: IMO Swift>>Gainwell but it very little to do with relative performance against two vastly different teams at home and on the road.
 
It should also be noted that Gainwell, for whatever praises he receives from the coaching staff, is the definition of Just A Guy. He did get the bulk of carries week one but he didn’t do anything with them. Swift was electric Thursday and his receiving (which is why I was high in him before the season started) wasn’t even featured.
I think you are minimizing the comparative quality of the New England vs Minnesota defenses.
I’m not. I understand there is a chasm between those two defensive fronts. I’ve never thought Gainwell did anything at an elite level. Watching week 1 he was ho hum. Swift looked special albeit against a much more porous Dline.
You say you're accounting for the difference but immediately return to the former narrative.

You see that, right?

FTR: IMO Swift>>Gainwell but it very little to do with relative performance against two vastly different teams at home and on the road.
I mean, can’t it be both? There’s a difference between the two teams’ defenses. I stipulate that.

But I’m sorry, Gainwell carried 14 times for 54 yards-a paltry 3.8 ypc. NE Dline is not world beater but you sure are making them do a heavy lift here.

Swift on the other had 175 yards on 28 carries for 6.25 ypc.

The delta between the two defenses that were faced is not nearly enough to attribute the discrepancy. Swift is substantially better than Gainwell.
 
Swift will likely be back to being the 2nd rb. I do think he has earned a lil more time tho.
 
Swift is a talented RB on the last year of his contract. So the motivation is there

Should be the lead RB of the committee for Philly. Touches? Who knows?
 
Proud voter of more than 75% before week 3
Does 40% of the teams runs count as "clear cut"?
53% of the RB opportunities to 47% for Gainwell.

Don't have snap counts yet.

Definitely closer to an even split than most are going to want to believe based on production.

Swift is clearly out playing Gainwell on his touches, but Swift also read a pass route differently than Hurts that lead to an interception. Probably an aspect of the offense the coaches have more trust in Gainwell than Swift which is why it seemed Gainwell was in on the four minute offense.

No matter though so long as Swift keeps getting his usage like he has and keeps being as efficient as he has I think his managers will be happy.
 
Swift by a mile. Especially in close games. This was not
Don't have snap counts but first half was a one score game until the Eagles closed out with a FG and Swift had 7 opportunities to 6 for Gainwell.

ETA: And you may discount it but Gainwell was in on the game sealing drive. All the starters were in on that drive, except Swift.
 
Swift by a mile. Especially in close games. This was not
Don't have snap counts but first half was a one score game until the Eagles closed out with a FG and Swift had 7 opportunities to 6 for Gainwell.

ETA: And you may discount it but Gainwell was in on the game sealing drive. All the starters were in on that drive, except Swift.

It was obvious last night how much more talented a runner Swift is than Gainwell. But Gainwell is going to get a lot of work still because the Eagles trust him to do all the other stuff outside of running that they don't trust Swift to do yet. So 4 minute, 2 minute, end of game, Gainwell appears to be the guy. Last night the Eagles got the ball with 9 minutes left in the 4th and didn't give it back.
 
Swift by a mile. Especially in close games. This was not
Don't have snap counts but first half was a one score game until the Eagles closed out with a FG and Swift had 7 opportunities to 6 for Gainwell.

ETA: And you may discount it but Gainwell was in on the game sealing drive. All the starters were in on that drive, except Swift.

It was obvious last night how much more talented a runner Swift is than Gainwell. But Gainwell is going to get a lot of work still because the Eagles trust him to do all the other stuff outside of running that they don't trust Swift to do yet. So 4 minute, 2 minute, end of game, Gainwell appears to be the guy. Last night the Eagles got the ball with 9 minutes left in the 4th and didn't give it back.
All of this. Plus they want to keep Swift healthy and giving him his Week 2 workload every game would not do that. That was an anomaly due to Gainwell being out and Scott getting hurt during the game.
 
Swift is essentially their feature back now. Time to forget the first game…

Oh, & Swift would’ve been the one getting touches at the end of the game if it were close & ESPECIALLY if they were behind.
 
I suspect we’ll see Swift eventually take over most of the 3rd down duties as the season goes along, as well. Hurts doesn’t look like the same QB this year (both throwing & running) so check-downs should become a bigger part of their offense.

Swift is producing without the use of one of his best attributes (ball in space) so it’s an encouraging sign.
 
Swift is essentially their feature back now. Time to forget the first game…

Oh, & Swift would’ve been the one getting touches at the end of the game if it were close & ESPECIALLY if they were behind.

You sure about that? Check out those 1st half touches. Gainwell got EVERYTHING in the final 5 minutes of the first half (and they gave him the 4th and 1 carry in the RZ when they got stopped).
 
Swift is essentially their feature back now. Time to forget the first game…

Oh, & Swift would’ve been the one getting touches at the end of the game if it were close & ESPECIALLY if they were behind.

You sure about that? Check out those 1st half touches. Gainwell got EVERYTHING in the final 5 minutes of the first half (and they gave him the 4th and 1 carry in the RZ when they got stopped).
I’m positive. Their roles aren’t carved in stone yet, but Gainwell has been getting most of the “passing” back stuff (down/distance like his first carry).

Gainwell has lost the “featured” role already. It’s really not much of a surprise, though.
 
Swift is essentially their feature back now. Time to forget the first game…

Oh, & Swift would’ve been the one getting touches at the end of the game if it were close & ESPECIALLY if they were behind.

You sure about that? Check out those 1st half touches. Gainwell got EVERYTHING in the final 5 minutes of the first half (and they gave him the 4th and 1 carry in the RZ when they got stopped).
I’m positive. Their roles aren’t carved in stone yet, but Gainwell has been getting most of the “passing” back stuff (down/distance like his first carry).

Gainwell has lost the “featured” role already. It’s really not much of a surprise, though.
I admire your confidence but an 16-14 split on carries with a 2-2 split in targets along with a 54-46% split in snaps doesn't really lead to a clear conclusion about their roles.

It was a two score game with 9:22 on the clock when the Eagles got the ball back in the fourth. Your conclusion is they were saving Swift at that point because he's too important? And they left in all the other starters because, they're less important than Swift?

No. 9:22 is plenty of time to blow a two score lead in the NFL.

Swift is clearly the more talented back with the ball in his hands but he doesn't do everything else nearly as well as Gainwell. The end of first half interception is a good example of Swift making the kind of mistake, misreading his route options, they trust Gainwell not to.

I expect Swift to lead the backfield in opportunities, but in close games, 2 & 4 minute offense etc Gainwell will still have a big role. 55-45% seems about right.
 
You sure about that? Check out those 1st half touches. Gainwell got EVERYTHING in the final 5 minutes of the first half (and they gave him the 4th and 1 carry in the RZ when they got stopped).
No, Swift was in on the drive before the half. He was the intended target on Devin White's interception.
 
Swift is essentially their feature back now. Time to forget the first game…

Oh, & Swift would’ve been the one getting touches at the end of the game if it were close & ESPECIALLY if they were behind.

You sure about that? Check out those 1st half touches. Gainwell got EVERYTHING in the final 5 minutes of the first half (and they gave him the 4th and 1 carry in the RZ when they got stopped).
I’m positive. Their roles aren’t carved in stone yet, but Gainwell has been getting most of the “passing” back stuff (down/distance like his first carry).

Gainwell has lost the “featured” role already. It’s really not much of a surprise, though.
I admire your confidence but an 16-14 split on carries with a 2-2 split in targets along with a 54-46% split in snaps doesn't really lead to a clear conclusion about their roles.

It was a two score game with 9:22 on the clock when the Eagles got the ball back in the fourth. Your conclusion is they were saving Swift at that point because he's too important? And they left in all the other starters because, they're less important than Swift?

No. 9:22 is plenty of time to blow a two score lead in the NFL.

Swift is clearly the more talented back with the ball in his hands but he doesn't do everything else nearly as well as Gainwell. The end of first half interception is a good example of Swift making the kind of mistake, misreading his route options, they trust Gainwell not to.

I expect Swift to lead the backfield in opportunities, but in close games, 2 & 4 minute offense etc Gainwell will still have a big role. 55-45% seems about right.
Put it this way…if it was a closer game, Swift would’ve had more than 17 touches (non-negotiable).

Plus, if the coaching staff put a lot of emphasis on doing the “little things”, Gainwell would’ve started this week. Instead, he’s now a backup (as he should be).
 
Swift is essentially their feature back now. Time to forget the first game…

Oh, & Swift would’ve been the one getting touches at the end of the game if it were close & ESPECIALLY if they were behind.

You sure about that? Check out those 1st half touches. Gainwell got EVERYTHING in the final 5 minutes of the first half (and they gave him the 4th and 1 carry in the RZ when they got stopped).
I’m positive. Their roles aren’t carved in stone yet, but Gainwell has been getting most of the “passing” back stuff (down/distance like his first carry).

Gainwell has lost the “featured” role already. It’s really not much of a surprise, though.
I admire your confidence but an 16-14 split on carries with a 2-2 split in targets along with a 54-46% split in snaps doesn't really lead to a clear conclusion about their roles.

It was a two score game with 9:22 on the clock when the Eagles got the ball back in the fourth. Your conclusion is they were saving Swift at that point because he's too important? And they left in all the other starters because, they're less important than Swift?

No. 9:22 is plenty of time to blow a two score lead in the NFL.

Swift is clearly the more talented back with the ball in his hands but he doesn't do everything else nearly as well as Gainwell. The end of first half interception is a good example of Swift making the kind of mistake, misreading his route options, they trust Gainwell not to.

I expect Swift to lead the backfield in opportunities, but in close games, 2 & 4 minute offense etc Gainwell will still have a big role. 55-45% seems about right.
Put it this way…if it was a closer game, Swift would’ve had more than 17 touches (non-negotiable).

Plus, if the coaching staff put a lot of emphasis on doing the “little things”, Gainwell would’ve started this week. Instead, he’s the backup RB to Swift (as he should be).
Of course it's negotiable. What an odd thing to say.

In a one score game throughout the first half their split was Swift 7 & Gainwell 6.

If the coaching staff didn't sweat the details Gainwell may never see the field, but they do. They sweat them a lot. Swift has an opportunity to improve his understanding of the Eagles offense and get better at the small stuff. If he does his share should increase.

However that hasn't happened yet and the conclusions your drawing simply don't fit the data.
 
The situation & score will dictate much of the usage on a game-by-game basis. No doubt they’ll “save” Swift from some unnecessary touches if they can get away with it. Almost everyone uses a form of RBBC now.

3 weeks in & really no surprises other than how fast Swift was promoted.
 
I agree it's Swift's backfield, but I think they would be smart to not give him that many carries every week given his history.

I think the real surprise in all this is how little Penny is being used. He's healthy, and he was awesome when healthy in Seattle.... what's going on with him? Healthy scratch week 1, and not even a single carry this week? Does he just really suck now?
 
I agree it's Swift's backfield, but I think they would be smart to not give him that many carries every week given his history.

I think the real surprise in all this is how little Penny is being used. He's healthy, and he was awesome when healthy in Seattle.... what's going on with him? Healthy scratch week 1, and not even a single carry this week? Does he just really suck now?
Probably doesn't suck but probably isn't as trusted in the non-rushing aspects of the offense yet.
 
Barring injury, 100%. Have you seen this dude run the ball in this offense? He's the missing link for this offense, he really is.

It's extremely early for Gibbs and the Lions, but right now you have to question overpaying for Gibbs when Swift looks every bit the part of what they were looking for. They do get a pass though, they've really turned that franchise around and have hit home runs with guys like St. Brown, Campbell, Sewell, Hutchinson, LaPorta and more.
 
I agree it's Swift's backfield, but I think they would be smart to not give him that many carries every week given his history.

I think the real surprise in all this is how little Penny is being used. He's healthy, and he was awesome when healthy in Seattle.... what's going on with him? Healthy scratch week 1, and not even a single carry this week? Does he just really suck now?
He looked pretty clueless during his brief appearances in week 2. Maybe he hasn’t grasped the offense yet.

ETA: However, they must have some sort of plan for him, otherwise they would have cut him and kept Trey Sermon.
 
It's extremely early for Gibbs and the Lions, but right now you have to question overpaying for Gibbs when Swift looks every bit the part of what they were looking for. They do get a pass though, they've really turned that franchise around and have hit home runs with guys like St. Brown, Campbell , Sewell, Hutchinson, LaPorta and more.
Not to throw shade at the Lions, but they traded the 9th pick to the Eagles who took Carter, then drafted Gibbs making Swift available who ended up with the Eagles. The two best players last night for the Eagles (arguably) were Carter and Swift. Thank you, Detroit.

A caller on this morning's talk radio pointed that out.
 
It's extremely early for Gibbs and the Lions, but right now you have to question overpaying for Gibbs when Swift looks every bit the part of what they were looking for. They do get a pass though, they've really turned that franchise around and have hit home runs with guys like St. Brown, Campbell , Sewell, Hutchinson, LaPorta and more.
Not to throw shade at the Lions, but they traded the 9th pick to the Eagles who took Carter, then drafted Gibbs making Swift available who ended up with the Eagles. The two best players last night for the Eagles (arguably) were Carter and Swift. Thank you, Detroit.

A caller on this morning's talk radio pointed that out.
It's early, but it would seem Detroit certainly got the short end of the stick there. But like I said earlier, they've done enough good things there to turn around one of the most dysfunctional franchises in the league and actually give them a real shot of winning that division, if not more, that you have to give them a pass on their misses. Detroit leadership plays to win, they aren't conservative. That will lead to big misses but also to big hits. I respect that mentality greatly, conservative group think doesn't lead to success in the NFL. Ask Carolina how conservative group think is working for them.
 
I agree it's Swift's backfield, but I think they would be smart to not give him that many carries every week given his history.

I think the real surprise in all this is how little Penny is being used. He's healthy, and he was awesome when healthy in Seattle.... what's going on with him? Healthy scratch week 1, and not even a single carry this week? Does he just really suck now?
He looked pretty clueless during his brief appearances in week 2. Maybe he hasn’t grasped the offense yet.

ETA: However, they must have some sort of plan for him, otherwise they would have cut him and kept Trey Sermon.
Penny looked out of shape and unprepared to enter that game. He is who he is. He showed it in Seattle and may have already whiffed his only shot at redemption in Philly.
 
It's extremely early for Gibbs and the Lions, but right now you have to question overpaying for Gibbs when Swift looks every bit the part of what they were looking for. They do get a pass though, they've really turned that franchise around and have hit home runs with guys like St. Brown, Campbell , Sewell, Hutchinson, LaPorta and more.
Not to throw shade at the Lions, but they traded the 9th pick to the Eagles who took Carter, then drafted Gibbs making Swift available who ended up with the Eagles. The two best players last night for the Eagles (arguably) were Carter and Swift. Thank you, Detroit.

A caller on this morning's talk radio pointed that out.
It's early, but it would seem Detroit certainly got the short end of the stick there. But like I said earlier, they've done enough good things there to turn around one of the most dysfunctional franchises in the league and actually give them a real shot of winning that division, if not more, that you have to give them a pass on their misses. Detroit leadership plays to win, they aren't conservative. That will lead to big misses but also to big hits. I respect that mentality greatly, conservative group think doesn't lead to success in the NFL. Ask Carolina how conservative group think is working for them.
I haven't watched Gibbs but long-term that was probably the right decision. Again, not meant to throw shade at Detroit, but an interesting observation.
 
He's not going to play WR or RB for contract reasons alone. If or... let's be real, when he is cut loose, any team from KC, BAL, MIA, SF, ATL, PHI could design some fun looks for him.

He is who he is. He showed it in Seattle
Sit this one out.
You’re a Penny fan? Believe he’s lived up to his potential?
Your post insinuated he showed in Seattle he was not good. His issue was injuries. He's literally one of the most efficient RB's on a per carry basis in entire history of the NFL.
 
He's not going to play WR or RB for contract reasons alone. If or... let's be real, when he is cut loose, any team from KC, BAL, MIA, SF, ATL, PHI could design some fun looks for him.

He is who he is. He showed it in Seattle
Sit this one out.
You’re a Penny fan? Believe he’s lived up to his potential?
Your post insinuated he showed in Seattle he was not good. His issue was injuries. He's literally one of the most efficient RB's on a per carry basis in entire history of the NFL.
When you’re lazy, fat and out of shape you get hurt more. You also sit out when you’re sore but not injured. Penny is soft both mentally and physically.

He didn’t live up to his potential in Seattle. That’s a fact. The most games he’s played in a season was 14 as a rookie when he gained 419 yards. His other seasons he has played 10, 10, 5 and 3 games. He’s gained less than 3,000 yards in his career as a 1st round pick. Efficiency don’t mean **** without volume.

He also looked slow, out of shape and unprepared in his first action as an Eagle. Didn’t think I’d find a Penny defender in here but carry on. Not a hill I would die on.
 

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