What factors do you weigh when deciding value in Dynasty? (1 Viewer)

[Ministry of Pain]

When I do my annual preseason threads I typically do not project numbers as much as I do a weighted average of 4-5 different categories including opps/touches, OL, schedule, surrounding cast, intangibles. That is usually what I do when I look at RB each year and try to not get too caught up in the exact projections...but how does that crossover to Dynasty?

Some of the categories seem like they would but there are certain questions I ask myself like "Mike Furrey...what's his value on any other team? When Martz leaves the Lions will he still be a producer? Was 98 catches a fluke?" Those types of questions. I actuall did some projections and the tier for the WR I just mentioned as an example is filled with a lot of other names that I have more confidence in not just the short term but the longer term as well. How much stock do you put into all of that? When you initially draft in a start up dynasty I would think you have be even more conservative as to who you bring on your team.

Does the track history of say 4-5 solid seasons weigh heavier for a guy like Darrell Jackson over say a Marques Colston? That's just an example so feel free to slide any players in and out you want in your examples.

It just seems hard to really come up with an exact list or order if you will in these drafts that will start taking place over the next few weeks.

 

[sib]

When I do my annual preseason threads I typically do not project numbers as much as I do a weighted average of 4-5 different categories including opps/touches, OL, schedule, surrounding cast, intangibles. That is usually what I do when I look at RB each year and try to not get too caught up in the exact projections...but how does that crossover to Dynasty?Some of the categories seem like they would but there are certain questions I ask myself like "Mike Furrey...what's his value on any other team? When Martz leaves the Lions will he still be a producer? Was 98 catches a fluke?" Those types of questions. I actuall did some projections and the tier for the WR I just mentioned as an example is filled with a lot of other names that I have more confidence in not just the short term but the longer term as well. How much stock do you put into all of that? When you initially draft in a start up dynasty I would think you have be even more conservative as to who you bring on your team. Does the track history of say 4-5 solid seasons weigh heavier for a guy like Darrell Jackson over say a Marques Colston? That's just an example so feel free to slide any players in and out you want in your examples. It just seems hard to really come up with an exact list or order if you will in these drafts that will start taking place over the next few weeks.

Talent, Age, Opportunity, Injury history, and Coaching Philosophy are main criteria I look at.

 

[Kit Fisto]

When I do my annual preseason threads I typically do not project numbers as much as I do a weighted average of 4-5 different categories including opps/touches, OL, schedule, surrounding cast, intangibles. That is usually what I do when I look at RB each year and try to not get too caught up in the exact projections...but how does that crossover to Dynasty?Some of the categories seem like they would but there are certain questions I ask myself like "Mike Furrey...what's his value on any other team? When Martz leaves the Lions will he still be a producer? Was 98 catches a fluke?" Those types of questions. I actuall did some projections and the tier for the WR I just mentioned as an example is filled with a lot of other names that I have more confidence in not just the short term but the longer term as well. How much stock do you put into all of that? When you initially draft in a start up dynasty I would think you have be even more conservative as to who you bring on your team. Does the track history of say 4-5 solid seasons weigh heavier for a guy like Darrell Jackson over say a Marques Colston? That's just an example so feel free to slide any players in and out you want in your examples. It just seems hard to really come up with an exact list or order if you will in these drafts that will start taking place over the next few weeks.

Yes, in dynasty consistency is much more valuable.Example: Not anymore, but for the past few seasons, Keyshawn has been a consistent contributor. In redraft, people aren't touching a guy like him till the late rounds.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

When I do my annual preseason threads I typically do not project numbers as much as I do a weighted average of 4-5 different categories including opps/touches, OL, schedule, surrounding cast, intangibles. That is usually what I do when I look at RB each year and try to not get too caught up in the exact projections...but how does that crossover to Dynasty?Some of the categories seem like they would but there are certain questions I ask myself like "Mike Furrey...what's his value on any other team? When Martz leaves the Lions will he still be a producer? Was 98 catches a fluke?" Those types of questions. I actuall did some projections and the tier for the WR I just mentioned as an example is filled with a lot of other names that I have more confidence in not just the short term but the longer term as well. How much stock do you put into all of that? When you initially draft in a start up dynasty I would think you have be even more conservative as to who you bring on your team. Does the track history of say 4-5 solid seasons weigh heavier for a guy like Darrell Jackson over say a Marques Colston? That's just an example so feel free to slide any players in and out you want in your examples. It just seems hard to really come up with an exact list or order if you will in these drafts that will start taking place over the next few weeks.

Yes, in dynasty consistency is much more valuable.Example: Not anymore, but for the past few seasons, Keyshawn has been a consistent contributor. In redraft, people aren't touching a guy like him till the late rounds.

KJ is still pumping out 70 catches a season the past couple of years so very good example.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Talent, Age, Opportunity, Injury history, and Coaching Philosophy are main criteria I look at.

Very good applications to apply to the mix.

 

[Gamma1210]

With WRs and QBs I look for players who have high job security as the lifespan is longer than top RBs. Looking at Furrey, I see him able to be bumped from the #2 role easily, especially with the deep class of WRs this year. The Martz factor is important as well. For QBs, players like Leinart and Big Ben will be starting for many years barring injury.

 

[Warpig]

After all of the "proven" players are gone, I look at average production. Did they have a game where they rushed for 250+ yds and then a handful of 45 yarders to skew the numbers or did they average 90 yards a game and how many attempts did they average (to use RB's as the example).

I also look at age and opportunity. Are they on the wrong side of 30 and buried on the depth chart?

I look for people with talent (regardless of what size school they went to) who just need an opportunity.

It's worked pretty well for me.

 

[EBF]

Talent is my top consideration. Is this guy one of the most talented players in the league at his position? That's an important question to ask in dynasty, because if you're making a significant investment in a player (using a high rookie/vet draft pick on him or trading a lot for him), then you need to be 100% sure that the guy can play ball.

Consider someone like Mark Clayton. He might not be Torry Holt or Marvin Harrison, but is there anyone who doubts that he can play ball? He was a high pick, he's been productive, and he just looks like a player on the field. If you ask me, he's exactly the type of guy you should try to get on your dynasty team, because he'll be productive for years to come.

The real trick is identifying which prospects are legit and which are mere mirages. Sometimes you can just tell. I knew Lee Evans was going to hit all along. There was no question in my mind. But sometimes it's tricky to decide if a guy is the real deal. With guys like Maurice Drew or Joseph Addai, I wouldn't be surprised to see things break either way. I generally try to avoid paying a lot for this kind of player. Risk is multiplied in dynasty leagues. Make a bad call and you'll suffer for years.

I recently traded Matt Jones for a 2008 1st that figures to be in the 1.09-1.12 range. For all I know, this could turn out to be a terrible trade. Matt Jones has a chance to be beast, but I dealt him because I wasn't sure that he was going to live up to that promise. I'd rather use the pick on a player that I have more faith in.

Aside from talent, you also have to consider:

Situation - Very important for a RB. Not so important for a QB or WR. System dictates a RB's production to a large extent. Even a great back on bad offense will be crippled. So when you're drafting or trading for a back, you need to strongly consider his supporting cast and coaching staff. That said, talent is still important because a marginally-talented back on a great team is likely to lose his starting role to a superior challenger.

Longevity potential - How much does this guy have left in the tank? Youth is generally overrated, but it's probably a mistake to build a franchise around a guy like Shaun Alexander or Marvin Harrison at this point. My attitude is that you should take the best player available, but that there's no reason to draft a great old player when you can draft a great young player at the same draft slot.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Talent is my top consideration. Is this guy one of the most talented players in the league at his position? That's an important question to ask in dynasty, because if you're making a significant investment in a player (using a high rookie/vet draft pick on him or trading a lot for him), then you need to be 100% sure that the guy can play ball.

Consider someone like Mark Clayton. He might not be Torry Holt or Marvin Harrison, but is there anyone who doubts that he can play ball? He was a high pick, he's been productive, and he just looks like a player on the field. If you ask me, he's exactly the type of guy you should try to get on your dynasty team, because he'll be productive for years to come.

The real trick is identifying which prospects are legit and which are mere mirages. Sometimes you can just tell. I knew Lee Evans was going to hit all along. There was no question in my mind. But sometimes it's tricky to decide if a guy is the real deal. With guys like Maurice Drew or Joseph Addai, I wouldn't be surprised to see things break either way. I generally try to avoid paying a lot for this kind of player. Risk is multiplied in dynasty leagues. Make a bad call and you'll suffer for years.

I recently traded Matt Jones for a 2008 1st that figures to be in the 1.09-1.12 range. For all I know, this could turn out to be a terrible trade. Matt Jones has a chance to be beast, but I dealt him because I wasn't sure that he was going to live up to that promise. I'd rather use the pick on a player that I have more faith in.

Aside from talent, you also have to consider:

Situation - Very important for a RB. Not so important for a QB or WR. System dictates a RB's production to a large extent. Even a great back on bad offense will be crippled. So when you're drafting or trading for a back, you need to strongly consider his supporting cast and coaching staff. That said, talent is still important because a marginally-talented back on a great team is likely to lose his starting role to a superior challenger.

Longevity potential - How much does this guy have left in the tank? Youth is generally overrated, but it's probably a mistake to build a franchise around a guy like Shaun Alexander or Marvin Harrison at this point. My attitude is that you should take the best player available, but that there's no reason to draft a great old player when you can draft a great young player at the same draft slot.

 

[Biabreakable]

Have you seen this?

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...=296123&hl=

 

[-OZ-]

Talent is my top consideration. Is this guy one of the most talented players in the league at his position? That's an important question to ask in dynasty, because if you're making a significant investment in a player (using a high rookie/vet draft pick on him or trading a lot for him), then you need to be 100% sure that the guy can play ball.

Consider someone like Mark Clayton. He might not be Torry Holt or Marvin Harrison, but is there anyone who doubts that he can play ball? He was a high pick, he's been productive, and he just looks like a player on the field. If you ask me, he's exactly the type of guy you should try to get on your dynasty team, because he'll be productive for years to come.

The real trick is identifying which prospects are legit and which are mere mirages. Sometimes you can just tell. I knew Lee Evans was going to hit all along. There was no question in my mind. But sometimes it's tricky to decide if a guy is the real deal. With guys like Maurice Drew or Joseph Addai, I wouldn't be surprised to see things break either way. I generally try to avoid paying a lot for this kind of player. Risk is multiplied in dynasty leagues. Make a bad call and you'll suffer for years.

I recently traded Matt Jones for a 2008 1st that figures to be in the 1.09-1.12 range. For all I know, this could turn out to be a terrible trade. Matt Jones has a chance to be beast, but I dealt him because I wasn't sure that he was going to live up to that promise. I'd rather use the pick on a player that I have more faith in.

Aside from talent, you also have to consider:

Situation - Very important for a RB. Not so important for a QB or WR. System dictates a RB's production to a large extent. Even a great back on bad offense will be crippled. So when you're drafting or trading for a back, you need to strongly consider his supporting cast and coaching staff. That said, talent is still important because a marginally-talented back on a great team is likely to lose his starting role to a superior challenger.

Longevity potential - How much does this guy have left in the tank? Youth is generally overrated, but it's probably a mistake to build a franchise around a guy like Shaun Alexander or Marvin Harrison at this point. My attitude is that you should take the best player available, but that there's no reason to draft a great old player when you can draft a great young player at the same draft slot.

I won't argue against the trade, but how are you sure the late 1st is going to be a top player?I like to have solid, proven performers in my lineup. After my lineup is set, I like to take some risks on players like Jones, MJD, Jennings, etc.

Talent is always the overriding factor, but for the past couple years, I've looked harder at character and work ethic as I was burned by players like Rogers and BMW.