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What five players scream BUST to you this year? (1 Viewer)

Ghost Rider

Footballguy
My picks:

C.J. Spiller - I think Spiller is a great talent and is awesome to watch, especially once he gets in open space, but given that he is a mid first rounder is just about every mock draft right now, I just don't see him living up to that this year. Kevin Kolb as the Bills QB scares the hell out of me - if he couldn't produce with Larry Fitzgerald as his number 1 WR, how is gonna do it without him?. Ryan Fitzpatrick was erratic and turnover-happy, but at least he could move the ball all day and help the offense pile up yards. I am not convinced Kolb will be able to do the same, and if he doesn't, teams will jam the box to stop the running game and force Kolb to make them pay. I think Spiller is great enough to still fight through it and potentially be a top 12 RB, thanks to a handful of big games, but I just don't see him being the week in and week out stud that you expect out of a RB you take in the middle of the first round.

Ray Rice - The fact that he has slipped to the bottom of the first round in a lot of mock drafts tells me that a lot of people are also very nervous about this year, and there is much to be nervous about it: the Ravens passing game lost two big weapons, Bernard Pierce has looked great and will get plenty of touches and the Ravens look like a team that will suffer the dreaded Super Bowl hangover. I see Rice still having a solid season, but his days of being a top 5 fantasy RB might be over.

Cam Newton - His strong finish last year has many thinking he turned the corner as a passer and will take it to the next level, but I am not convinced. His threat as a runner always it possible for him to have good to great fantasy weeks even if he has a bad throwing day, so there is that, but I am just seeing him go as a top 5 QB in many mocks, and with the QB position so deep this year, I just don't see spending a top draft pick or a lot of auction money on a guy with his potential for inconsistency.

Brandon Marshall - Okay, I know Jay Cutler loves this guy and loves to throw him the ball all day and every day, but with a new coach in town, I think they will make a concerted effort to get other players more involved in the passing game on a regular basis. Marshall's numbers will still be damn good, but I think a lot of FF owners this year are gonna be left chasing last year's numbers.

Reggie Wayne - the Colts will still throw it a ton, but with the emergence of Ty Hilton, the TEs likely be used more and DHB possibly stepping up to be an occasional deep threat, I see Wayne's piece of the receiving pie in Indy not being nearly what it was last year. He wasn't nearly as productive in the second half of 2012 as he was in the first half, and I think that trend will continue in 2013.

 
If Rice's days of being a top 5 back are over...but he is being drafted towards the end of round 1, well outside of the top 5 RB's...how does that make him a bust?

Short of injury, which can happen to anybody and which Rice has been pretty good about, I don't see Rice being a bust.

I will second Cobb and Foster ^

 
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I almost putt Cobb on my list, as I am not sure his ADP should be as a top 10 WR, but the guy is electric and GB will go out of their way to get the ball in his hands a lot, so I am not about to bet against the guy.

When I say bust, I mean a player who will not live up to his ADP. I don't think Rice will even live up to being a late first rounder this year.

 
Lamar Miller-Don't see him living up to the lofty expectations.

Chris Ivory-No way I'm hitching my fantasy hopes to anything related to the Jets...period.

Spiller is probably overdrafted (I can think of all around safer picks I'd rather have in the mid-1st but I don't think he will bust).

Same deal for Cam. Won't bust your team but won't live up to the expectation.

I'm interested to see Wayne on this list twice already but couldn't disagree more. Wayne is a boring story at this point and a great target to pick on because he is probably the oldest most relevant player in fantasy right now so he draws the target but he is what he is. He is durable, smart, has good hands, doesn't rely on speed, has a good QB and is part of the offense at several spots. I think he just keeps on keepin' on.

 
I agree with some of you that I think Cobb is going to have a HUGE year this year. The first of many with Rodgers at QB! He is so versatile and a tough matchup for many! I don't think he "Busts" at all and may end up a top 5 WR this year!

 
Cam Newton

Russell Wilson

Colin Kaepernick

Tony Gonzalez

C.J. Spiller

Randall Cobb

Lesean Mccoy

 
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I'd like to read your analysis here.

Haven't put a whole lot of thought into my bust-list yet, but off-hand the guys I won't take at their ADP:

Aaron Rodgers - just see Green Bay running more. Still probably a top 4 guy but I project Brees, Peyton, and Newton all to finish ahead of him. Won't be shocked if Luck and Brady do too.

Russel Wilson - not a real bust, just to not reach expectations.

Lamar Miller - just don't see the hype.

Greg Jennings - is there a bigger downgrade than from Rodgers to Ponder? I always thought he outperformed his ability, which is great, but he won't be able to make Ponder better.

 
I don't know what people thingk they see in Foster but I have a hunch they are reading numbers and re-reading echoed sentiments and not really watching much in all honesty. For him to bust, outside of injury, means he has to finish around 9th or 10th or so? That's not happening. He is too much of the team and about everything that could have worked against them last year kinda did. They were out of sync with their run game all year. Even when it looked good, it looked bad to people that have watched the Texans in recent years.

I think Foster storms back this year. It will be recognizeable in fantasy..not hugely because they clearly want to keep things better balanced in real life. But there will be improvement and Ben Tate will be playable as a stand alone Rb instead of a mere handcuff. There is no doubt in my mind that this team is going to really enforce its will on teams this year. With that being said, I will concede that their schedule early on will probably put some stress on them. They play a month of teams early on that have been elite against the run the past few years so I will temper my own expectations early on.

 
I almost putt Cobb on my list, as I am not sure his ADP should be as a top 10 WR, but the guy is electric and GB will go out of their way to get the ball in his hands a lot, so I am not about to bet against the guy.

When I say bust, I mean a player who will not live up to his ADP. I don't think Rice will even live up to being a late first rounder this year.

I don't think any of the guys I listed will live up to their ADP.

Cobb - I think he's DeSean Jackson minus the $.05 head. IMO, if he reaches his ceiling he will do little more than match his ADP.

Foster - Like his game and story but I have a nagging feeling he's living on borrowed time.Wayne

Wayne - Should be OK as a WR3 but at his age I see at least a slight regression and I'm worried it could be significant with emergence of young guys and 2 TE set.

Richardson - Like his game but don't think he's anywhere near the talent he's afforded. That plus CLE (even if improved) = not even close to 1st round.

Peyton - Again, gut feeling on this but I don't like their coach or offseason issues. My guess is Peyton doesn't throw the ball enough to justify QB3.
 
I agree with some of you that I think Cobb is going to have a HUGE year this year. The first of many with Rodgers at QB! He is so versatile and a tough matchup for many! I don't think he "Busts" at all and may end up a top 5 WR this year!
GB and Rodgers spread the ball around too much, and there's too much receiving talent in GB, for Cobb to finish top 5 IMO. I really like Cobb as an NFL player, but no player has ever caught more than 80 passes from Aaron Rodgers -- he and the team are just too good to get tunnel vision for any one receiver.

 
I'd like to read your analysis here.

Haven't put a whole lot of thought into my bust-list yet, but off-hand the guys I won't take at their ADP:

Aaron Rodgers - just see Green Bay running more. Still probably a top 4 guy but I project Brees, Peyton, and Newton all to finish ahead of him. Won't be shocked if Luck and Brady do too.

Russel Wilson - not a real bust, just to not reach expectations.

Lamar Miller - just don't see the hype.

Greg Jennings - is there a bigger downgrade than from Rodgers to Ponder? I always thought he outperformed his ability, which is great, but he won't be able to make Ponder better.
I should qualify that I count injuries as busts when applicable. In addition to my second post, I think Peyton has a higher injury qualifier than most QBs, particularly given his recent OL issues.

 
Mike Wallace
Good choice. I tend to de-value WRs changing teams. Especially with a downgrade at QB. Only thing is, I'm not sure Tannehill is a downgrade for Wallace. And Wallace seems to be falling a fair amount already.

 
I'd be a little worried about Foster. YPC has declined each of the past two years and he's still working through some injury stuff after a 400+ carry season.

Marshall is due to come back down to Earth a little bit after getting a billion targets last year. With Jeffery and Bennett in the mix, I look for the target numbers to drop a little bit. He'll still be very good, but maybe more like 2011 than 2012. That's more of a "mild disappointment" prediction than a bust call though.

I think Welker is a prime candidate to disappoint. We know what he did in New England, but this isn't New England. Even though Manning is a great QB capable of sustaining multiple productive FF WRs, I just don't see Welker getting the targets needed to match the expectations that he set in New England. Thomas is the best WR on the team there and Decker will get his share. Welker is also a year older and at some point age will diminish his effectiveness.

Spiller is a tough call. Dynamic talent. Ability to handle a huge workload hasn't been tested yet. I could see him blowing up even more, or imploding.

 
Cam Newton

Russell Wilson

Colin Kaepernick

Tony Gonzalez

C.J. Spiller

Randall Cobb

Lesean McCoy
Hmmmm... Don't see this at all. Eagles should run a lot of plays with the majority being running plays. He gets his pro bowl left tackle back this year and also catches a ton out of the backfield.

What makes you think he will bust this year?

 
Am I on an island in thinking that Doug Martin is supremely overvalued right now?
Martin is not going to finish top 3 ut I don't think he's super overvalued. We know that he'd have finished with Chris Johnson numbers if not for a handful of big plays. Live by the big play, die by the big play. Martin was also not very productive in the red-zone.

That said, he's the feature back right now, and those are hard to find. With a disappointing season he's still going to be force fed the ball so a top 10 finish should be expected. That kind of solid RB expectation is worth a first round pick. Since he'd still be a first-round pick with 50 less points on the season I can't call him that overvalued.

 
Martin was also not very productive in the red-zone.
Interesting in that they drafted a big back in Mike James and signed two RB/FB tweeners in Brian Leonard and Peyton Hillis.

It's possible that Martin could see his goal-line carries reduced.

 
5 Veteran Busts

--------------------

1). Mike Wallace

2). Vick Ballard (Bradshaw will make a difference in Ballard's output)

3). MJD (unless he can run on one leg)

4). Andre Johnson

5). Alshon Jeffrey

5 Rookie Busts

--------------------

1). Eddie Lacy (smells fat and lazy)

2). Justin Hunter (smells bad)

3.) Terrance Williams (overrated coming out of college)

4). Keenan Allen

5). Tyler Eifert (I love him, but Gresham isn't going away anytime soon and I'm not sure there's enough balls to go around)

 
Am I on an island in thinking that Doug Martin is supremely overvalued right now?
I don't really like his game, but his o-line is getting better and it seems the coach loves him so he'll get another huge workload. It is hard to bust when you get 300+ carries and 40+ rec.

Here are my picks:

Spiller - not for lack of talent, but that team could be a disaster. New system, new QB, loss of Levitre. I want no part of this team.

Ivory - will be in a RBBC, is on a bad team, and appears injury prone

Cobb - just way too high for a guy with low ypr and he seems like a risk for a touchdown drought

Dez - I think he finishes around WR10 which is a bust for a top 3 WR pick

AP - Sorry, I know it's blasphemy here, but lightning doesn't strike twice. This team is getting worse.

 
Martin is not going to finish top 3 ut I don't think he's super overvalued. We know that he'd have finished with Chris Johnson numbers if not for a handful of big plays.
No, we don't know that.

In fact, that is completely false.

This has been done to death in other threads though, such as the one pitting Martin against Charles.

 
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1. Trent Richardson - low YPC, always nicked, plays for the Browns

2. Marshawn Lynch - with his style of running he is overdue for injury, and there are a number of quality options behind him

3. Colin Kaepernick - Not convinced he is a great passer. Crabtree injury hurts. SF is at heart a running team

4. Hakeem Nicks - Reuben Randle will take over for him this year - Nicks just can't stay on the field

5. Andre Johnson - played a full slate last year, great numbers. Should be due for a series of injuries this year. And watch out for DeAndre Hopkins.

 
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I agree with some of you that I think Cobb is going to have a HUGE year this year. The first of many with Rodgers at QB! He is so versatile and a tough matchup for many! I don't think he "Busts" at all and may end up a top 5 WR this year!
GB and Rodgers spread the ball around too much, and there's too much receiving talent in GB, for Cobb to finish top 5 IMO. I really like Cobb as an NFL player, but no player has ever caught more than 80 passes from Aaron Rodgers -- he and the team are just too good to get tunnel vision for any one receiver.
While the bolded is true, I don't think the past necessarily predicts the future.

1-In 2008, Rodgers first year as starter, Jennings caught 80 passes.

2-In 2010, Jennings caught 76 passes. Rodgers only played 14 full games, and 1/4 of another. Safe to assume that Jennings would have hit/exceeded 80 catches with a full season from Rodgers.

3-In 2012, Cobb caught 80 passes, while missing 1 (relatively meaningless) game.

When you consider that Cobb is effectively replacing Jennings (who caught or was on pace to catch) 80 passes from Rodgers twice, AND that Cobb caught 80 passes just last year, on only 104 targets, and that Jennings averaged 125+ targets when in GB, it stands to reason that Cobb will see more targets, and will catch over 80 passes (assuming his and Rodgers' health).

 
1. Trent Richardson - low YPC, always nicked, plays for the Browns

2. Marshawn Lynch - with his style of running he is overdue for injury, and there are a number of quality options behind him

3. Colin Kaepernick - Not convinced he is a great passer. Crabtree injury hurts. SF is at heart a running team

4. Hakeem Nicks - Reuben Randle will take over for him this year - Nicks just can't stay on the field

5. Andre Johnson - played a full slate last year, great numbers. Should be due for a series of injuries this year. And watch out for DeAndre Hopkins.
So basically you're in the injury prediction business?

 
1. Trent Richardson - low YPC, always nicked, plays for the Browns

2. Marshawn Lynch - with his style of running he is overdue for injury, and there are a number of quality options behind him

3. Colin Kaepernick - Not convinced he is a great passer. Crabtree injury hurts. SF is at heart a running team

4. Hakeem Nicks - Reuben Randle will take over for him this year - Nicks just can't stay on the field

5. Andre Johnson - played a full slate last year, great numbers. Should be due for a series of injuries this year. And watch out for DeAndre Hopkins.
So basically you're in the injury prediction business?
only when guys are "due".

 
Mine are all RBs.

Ryan Mathews - Talented back but has a plethora of issues. We're talking about a back who is soft, takes himself out of games and is quoted this year as saying he wants to avoid contact. Some will argue his risk is factored into his ADP and I don't think it's factored in enough. He will have to slip another 3 rounds or so for me to consider him as a flyer.

Darren McFadden - What is it they say about fool me once, fool me twice? I'll let someone else make the "this is the year" call.

Arian Foster - My boldest pick of the group. There are so many good choices for first round backs but I felt like if I had to pick one to bust out of the group, it'll be Foster. The wear and tear, the declining YPC, and Ben Tate's contract year have me shying away from him in all mocks where I have a top 5 pick.

Chris Ivory - Terrible team? Check. Injury prone? Check. Has never proven to be capable of being a lead back? Check.

Eddie Lacy - Somebody posting a picture of him yesterday and he looked like Grimace. So yeah I'm including him here. My gut is telling me Jonathan Franklin wins out.

 
1. Trent Richardson - low YPC, always nicked, plays for the Browns

2. Marshawn Lynch - with his style of running he is overdue for injury, and there are a number of quality options behind him

3. Colin Kaepernick - Not convinced he is a great passer. Crabtree injury hurts. SF is at heart a running team

4. Hakeem Nicks - Reuben Randle will take over for him this year - Nicks just can't stay on the field

5. Andre Johnson - played a full slate last year, great numbers. Should be due for a series of injuries this year. And watch out for DeAndre Hopkins.
So basically you're in the injury prediction business?
Well injuries are a main factor in guys not living up to their ADP.

 
I agree with some of you that I think Cobb is going to have a HUGE year this year. The first of many with Rodgers at QB! He is so versatile and a tough matchup for many! I don't think he "Busts" at all and may end up a top 5 WR this year!
GB and Rodgers spread the ball around too much, and there's too much receiving talent in GB, for Cobb to finish top 5 IMO. I really like Cobb as an NFL player, but no player has ever caught more than 80 passes from Aaron Rodgers -- he and the team are just too good to get tunnel vision for any one receiver.
While the bolded is true, I don't think the past necessarily predicts the future.1-In 2008, Rodgers first year as starter, Jennings caught 80 passes.

2-In 2010, Jennings caught 76 passes. Rodgers

only played 14 full games, and 1/4 of another. Safe to assume that Jennings would have hit/exceeded 80 catches with a full season from Rodgers.

3-In 2012, Cobb caught 80 passes, while missing 1 (relatively meaningless) game.

When you consider that Cobb is effectively replacing Jennings (who caught or was on pace to catch) 80 passes from Rodgers twice, AND that Cobb caught 80 passes just last year, on

only 104 targets, and that Jennings averaged 125+ targets when in GB, it stands to reason that Cobb will see more targets, and will catch over 80 passes (assuming his and Rodgers' health).
Oh I agree that Cobb should catch < 80 passes this year. But to crack the top 5 he's gonna need 1450 - 10 or so, and that's a pretty huge stretch IMO.

 
1. Trent Richardson - low YPC, always nicked, plays for the Browns

2. Marshawn Lynch - with his style of running he is overdue for injury, and there are a number of quality options behind him

3. Colin Kaepernick - Not convinced he is a great passer. Crabtree injury hurts. SF is at heart a running team

4. Hakeem Nicks - Reuben Randle will take over for him this year - Nicks just can't stay on the field

5. Andre Johnson - played a full slate last year, great numbers. Should be due for a series of injuries this year. And watch out for DeAndre Hopkins.
So basically you're in the injury prediction business?
Well injuries are a main factor in guys not living up to their ADP.
And if you or I or he could predict which guys would/wouldn't get hurt every year we'd never lose at this hobby.

 
Am I on an island in thinking that Doug Martin is supremely overvalued right now?
I think you're pretty alone on that. Insane rookie season + highly improved o-line + good coach in 2nd year, I can only see good things for Doug Martin this season.

 
1. Andre Johnson...Aging WR on a predominately running team and a guy who's never been a huge red zone threat...no thanks

2. Tom Brady....I know he is one of the GOAT and yes he's made some pretty crappy WR's look good but I don't think you can take that many weapons away and still expect him to put up top 5 numbers. He's still great but with all the good young QB's in the league I think Brady will be lucky to be top 10.

3. Ray Rice...Still a solid RB but I thought Pierce looked like the better back in last year's playoff run. Rice will still outproduce Pierce but I think Pierce cuts into his touches big time.

4. Antonio Gates...yes I know he isn't thought of that highly anymore but plenty of people will draft him in the TE6-TE10 range expecting him to be their starter and they will be beating their heads against the wall with his 3 rec 25 yard weekly stat line. Guy is slow and washed up.

5. Lamar Miller....is talented but the hype is starting to spiral out of control.

 
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I agree with some of you that I think Cobb is going to have a HUGE year this year. The first of many with Rodgers at QB! He is so versatile and a tough matchup for many! I don't think he "Busts" at all and may end up a top 5 WR this year!
GB and Rodgers spread the ball around too much, and there's too much receiving talent in GB, for Cobb to finish top 5 IMO. I really like Cobb as an NFL player, but no player has ever caught more than 80 passes from Aaron Rodgers -- he and the team are just too good to get tunnel vision for any one receiver.
While the bolded is true, I don't think the past necessarily predicts the future.1-In 2008, Rodgers first year as starter, Jennings caught 80 passes.

2-In 2010, Jennings caught 76 passes. Rodgers

only played 14 full games, and 1/4 of another. Safe to assume that Jennings would have hit/exceeded 80 catches with a full season from Rodgers.

3-In 2012, Cobb caught 80 passes, while missing 1 (relatively meaningless) game.

When you consider that Cobb is effectively replacing Jennings (who caught or was on pace to catch) 80 passes from Rodgers twice, AND that Cobb caught 80 passes just last year, on

only 104 targets, and that Jennings averaged 125+ targets when in GB, it stands to reason that Cobb will see more targets, and will catch over 80 passes (assuming his and Rodgers' health).
Oh I agree that Cobb should catch < 80 passes this year. But to crack the top 5 he's gonna need 1450 - 10 or so, and that's a pretty huge stretch IMO.
You realize, of course, that <80 is "less than 80"

Remember, it's an alligator's mouth, and the alligator wants to eat as many pieces of bubble gum as he can. That's why the big end, which represents the open mouth, faces the larger number. ;)

Eddie Lacy - Somebody posting a picture of him yesterday and he looked like Grimace. So yeah I'm including him here. My gut is telling me Jonathan Franklin wins out.
You should check out the follow up to that pic, and the video it came from.

 
the fact that anyone even mentioned rt2rc as a bust makes me want to puke all over the joint but since i would have to clean it up i am not doing that but i just wanted to let you know that i thought about it he is going to have a great year and all you haters will be left looking out the window and wondering was that just randall the touchdown robber cobber who ran by no wait it could not be but you know what he is so fast and elusive maybe it was and you will never really know the answer and when you die that question will plague you like a question you could not answer for your whole life take that to the bank brochachos

 
Fitzgerald: People are assuming a return to greatness, but there have been several posts illustrating that Fitzgerald more than anyone benefited from playing with Warner. I'm not sure how great Palmer still is and the fact that Roberts had similar production to Fitz last year gives me further pause.

Stafford: He has needed an insane number of attempts to crack the top-10. Detroit seems to be coming to the realization that they cannot win the North with Stafford chucking it 50 times a game. His advanced metrics aren't good enough to keep him in the top ten if he takes a hundred fewer attempts.

Montee Ball: So far Denver hasn't seemed ready to commit to their rookie running back. Fox has a pretty clear history with RBBC and with easing rookies into the starting lineup. There are a lot of question marks about Ball right now for someone relying on him as a RB#2.

Kyle Rudolph: A poor YPC and 50% of the passing TDs in 2012. I don't think that his share of the Min passing TD percentage is sustainable, I don't think the quarterbacking is any better and I don't believe that he should be the sixth TE off the board.

Marshawn Lynch: It'd surprise me if he got to 300 carries this year and I think there's a significant risk that he is cut next offseason if he doesn't renegotiate his deal. The Seahawks are stockpiling backs and I'd be very surprised if there wasn't some usage of Michael and Turbin this year.

 
1. Trent Richardson - low YPC, always nicked, plays for the Browns

2. Marshawn Lynch - with his style of running he is overdue for injury, and there are a number of quality options behind him

3. Colin Kaepernick - Not convinced he is a great passer. Crabtree injury hurts. SF is at heart a running team

4. Hakeem Nicks - Reuben Randle will take over for him this year - Nicks just can't stay on the field

5. Andre Johnson - played a full slate last year, great numbers. Should be due for a series of injuries this year. And watch out for DeAndre Hopkins.
So basically you're in the injury prediction business?
Well injuries are a main factor in guys not living up to their ADP.
And if you or I or he could predict which guys would/wouldn't get hurt every year we'd never lose at this hobby.
Well, yes, given the staggering number of guys that get hurt every year, I AM in the injury prediction business. We all are. Or are you rating Darren McFadden based solely on talent? If you feel it impossible to predict injury or think it's an invalid methodology I'm sorry, but I generally try to look at durability as a factor -as was said earlier injury is a main factor in overall performance.

 
My picks:

C.J. Spiller - I think Spiller is a great talent and is awesome to watch, especially once he gets in open space, but given that he is a mid first rounder is just about every mock draft right now, I just don't see him living up to that this year. Kevin Kolb as the Bills QB scares the hell out of me - if he couldn't produce with Larry Fitzgerald as his number 1 WR, how is gonna do it without him?. Ryan Fitzpatrick was erratic and turnover-happy, but at least he could move the ball all day and help the offense pile up yards. I am not convinced Kolb will be able to do the same, and if he doesn't, teams will jam the box to stop the running game and force Kolb to make them pay. I think Spiller is great enough to still fight through it and potentially be a top 12 RB, thanks to a handful of big games, but I just don't see him being the week in and week out stud that you expect out of a RB you take in the middle of the first round.

Ray Rice - The fact that he has slipped to the bottom of the first round in a lot of mock drafts tells me that a lot of people are also very nervous about this year, and there is much to be nervous about it: the Ravens passing game lost two big weapons, Bernard Pierce has looked great and will get plenty of touches and the Ravens look like a team that will suffer the dreaded Super Bowl hangover. I see Rice still having a solid season, but his days of being a top 5 fantasy RB might be over.

Cam Newton - His strong finish last year has many thinking he turned the corner as a passer and will take it to the next level, but I am not convinced. His threat as a runner always it possible for him to have good to great fantasy weeks even if he has a bad throwing day, so there is that, but I am just seeing him go as a top 5 QB in many mocks, and with the QB position so deep this year, I just don't see spending a top draft pick or a lot of auction money on a guy with his potential for inconsistency.

Brandon Marshall - Okay, I know Jay Cutler loves this guy and loves to throw him the ball all day and every day, but with a new coach in town, I think they will make a concerted effort to get other players more involved in the passing game on a regular basis. Marshall's numbers will still be damn good, but I think a lot of FF owners this year are gonna be left chasing last year's numbers.

Reggie Wayne - the Colts will still throw it a ton, but with the emergence of Ty Hilton, the TEs likely be used more and DHB possibly stepping up to be an occasional deep threat, I see Wayne's piece of the receiving pie in Indy not being nearly what it was last year. He wasn't nearly as productive in the second half of 2012 as he was in the first half, and I think that trend will continue in 2013.
I really disagree. I think Marshall, Newton, and Rice are about as safe as it gets in fantasy. In the years Marshall has played with Cutler, in non ppr, he has finished 12th, 11th, 9th and 2nd in points per game for WR. He may not be the 2nd best again this year, but he is as close as a lock gets to being a #1 WR in fantasy this year. Rice is a young back still and he is going to get the most important thing for fantasy RBs: touches. Rice is used to not having a very versatile offense around him. Rice is 26 and will be a RB1 as he has the last 4 years. He may be the 4th or he may be the 10th, but you are getting proper value on him.

 
1) David Wilson - being drafted sometimes in the 2nd round, i'll pass

2) Lamar Miller - see David Wilson

3) Le'Veon Bell - I'll wait and see if he can do it(1200+ total yards)

4) Chris Ivory - hasn't done it before and is injured all the time

5) Reggie Bush

 
One for each position:

1. Mike Wallace - I think he disappoints this year in his new home.

2. MJD - I don't like the vibe I'm getting from his injury and quiet offseason.

3. Tom Brady - his Top 5 receivers from last year won't be starting Week 1.

4. Gronk - I think people drafting him in the 3rd round are nuts. He has had a horrendous offseason and people still think he is going to give them at least 12 weeks of elite production. If he gets on the field, on time, he will get more coverage than usual since Hernandez won't be there to keep defenses honest. Expect a drop-off even when he comes back.

5. Denver defense - the loss of Dumervil will hurt since Von Miller (currently facing 4-game suspension). Broncos should face a tier or two drop-off this year.

 
1. Trent Richardson - low YPC, always nicked, plays for the Browns

2. Marshawn Lynch - with his style of running he is overdue for injury, and there are a number of quality options behind him

3. Colin Kaepernick - Not convinced he is a great passer. Crabtree injury hurts. SF is at heart a running team

4. Hakeem Nicks - Reuben Randle will take over for him this year - Nicks just can't stay on the field

5. Andre Johnson - played a full slate last year, great numbers. Should be due for a series of injuries this year. And watch out for DeAndre Hopkins.
So basically you're in the injury prediction business?
Well injuries are a main factor in guys not living up to their ADP.
And if you or I or he could predict which guys would/wouldn't get hurt every year we'd never lose at this hobby.
Well, yes, given the staggering number of guys that get hurt every year, I AM in the injury prediction business. We all are. Or are you rating Darren McFadden based solely on talent? If you feel it impossible to predict injury or think it's an invalid methodology I'm sorry, but I generally try to look at durability as a factor -as was said earlier injury is a main factor in overall performance.
Based off the way your post reads it feels like you're not predicting injuries based on past medical history, but on style of play instead.

 
1) David Wilson - being drafted sometimes in the 2nd round, i'll pass

2) Lamar Miller - see David Wilson
Maybe it's just the drafts I've been it thus far but I'm not seeing these guys go nearly this high. For example, in the recent Anarchy league draft which is 16 teams I got Wilson at 3.09 and Miller at 4.08. Seeing most leagues are 12 teams, that's a far cry from the draft positions you just posted. Really, it moves them down 2 full rounds from there.

 
Ill list for where they are being drafted right now for a 12 team standard league

1. Mjd - lisfranc

2. Dmc - lisfranc

3. Chris ivory - rumored limited touches, crap offense, durability issues

4. Gronk - price to high, durability issues

5a. Mike wallace - new offense, new qb, got paid

5b. Eddie lacy - might not win starting job. Too many options at rb

Edit for reasons why

 
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Alfred Morris - the read-option coming out of nowhere didn't just benefit the QB. RBs get better running lanes and an extra blocker. Once teams study it and figure out how to attack rather than simply react, he'll take a dip.

Brandon Marshall - This is more of an indictment of Jay Cutler. I just think at some point, the diva in him will rear her ugly head again. A coach who has been out of the NFL for a while... yeah, I could see Cutler trying to swing his schlong around a bit in some sort of power play. And the guy who will suffer most will be Marshall.

Mike Wallace - When did Miami get to be not-just-good-but-GREAT, and why didn't I get cc'ed on the memo?

Ahmad Bradshaw - Just because he's on a team doesn't negate all the issues with why the Giants were happy to shed themselves of him. Just because he has found a team doesn't mean he's found a second life.

Dwayne Bowe - I admit, maybe I am biased about him because he only scores points in garbage time. And yes, garbage-time points score just as well as points when the game still matters. But there are some teams where I will invest on speculation and some teams where I have to see the goods before I'm willing to pay. KC is one of those teams where I have to see them do it on the field before I dive in. If that makes me a year behind the curve, so be it.

 
5 Veteran Busts

--------------------

1). Mike Wallace

2). Vick Ballard (Bradshaw will make a difference in Ballard's output)

3). MJD (unless he can run on one leg)

4). Andre Johnson

5). Alshon Jeffrey

5 Rookie Busts

--------------------

1). Eddie Lacy (smells fat and lazy)

2). Justin Hunter (smells bad)

3.) Terrance Williams (overrated coming out of college)

4). Keenan Allen

5). Tyler Eifert (I love him, but Gresham isn't going away anytime soon and I'm not sure there's enough balls to go around)
5 Veteran Busts

--------------------

1). Mike Wallace

2). Vick Ballard (Bradshaw will make a difference in Ballard's output)

3). MJD (unless he can run on one leg)

4). Andre Johnson

5). Alshon Jeffrey

5 Rookie Busts

--------------------

1). Eddie Lacy (smells fat and lazy)

2). Justin Hunter (smells bad)

3.) Terrance Williams (overrated coming out of college)

4). Keenan Allen

5). Tyler Eifert (I love him, but Gresham isn't going away anytime soon and I'm not sure there's enough balls to go around)
Why would Ballard even cross your mind? I didn't think people were of the opinion that he was worth anything this year.

 
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