What happened to some of the top 2008 WR prospects? (1 Viewer)

[gianmarco]

Yes, Royal and Avery and DeSean Jackson emerged. Yes, there's always going to be WR's that don't pan out. But last year, Kelly, Hardy, Thomas, Sweed were pretty close to being consensus top WR picks amongst the class. This year, their value is almost complete garbage.

Do they have a chance this year? Which of these top guys has the best chances to gain value this year? Which still has the most upside? Are the Nicks/Britt/Maclin/Harvin/DHB guys gonna follow the same path?

 

[SugarNuts]

Rookie WRs need 3 years to develop. Dont compare them to the ones that succeed in year one. That doesnt always happen. Dont label any of them a bust until after next year. Thats my take on it.

 

[Toads]

5 out of 6 ® WR's are draft and follows.

Give 'um a year and a radial carotometry and maybe they do something.

 

[gianmarco]

Rookie WRs need 3 years to develop. Dont compare them to the ones that succeed in year one. That doesnt always happen. Dont label any of them a bust until after next year. Thats my take on it.

I didn't label them a bust. But their value, for the most part, is complete garbage right now. For example, in a 14 team league with 22 man rosters, I can't even give away Hardy for the last pick of the draft. Similarly, the other guys listed have minimal value. These were 1st/early 2nd round picks just 1 year ago. Now you can't even get a 3rd or 4th round pick for them?This is why I also believe that late 1sts and 2nds are often overrated in value. I'd rather take a player of known value already in the league than try and get lucky to hit the next Royal or DeSean because I'm likely going to miss and end up with nothing to show for it.

 

[MAC_32]

Malcom Kelly has a (potentially) chronic knee issue.

Devin Thomas was a one year wonder.

James Hardy was a project to start with and then he tore his ACL.

Limas Sweed is the same guy he was when he was drafted too high, a guy that looks like a great football player until you put him on the field.

The only one I'm probably looking at this year is Kelly, if his knee cooperates, a big if. I'll be monitoring Hardy, but think that if he does ever put it together it won't be until 2010.

 

[SugarNuts]

Rookie WRs need 3 years to develop. Dont compare them to the ones that succeed in year one. That doesnt always happen. Dont label any of them a bust until after next year. Thats my take on it.

I didn't label them a bust. But their value, for the most part, is complete garbage right now. For example, in a 14 team league with 22 man rosters, I can't even give away Hardy for the last pick of the draft. Similarly, the other guys listed have minimal value. These were 1st/early 2nd round picks just 1 year ago. Now you can't even get a 3rd or 4th round pick for them?This is why I also believe that late 1sts and 2nds are often overrated in value. I'd rather take a player of known value already in the league than try and get lucky to hit the next Royal or DeSean because I'm likely going to miss and end up with nothing to show for it.

I didnt think you were implying they were a bust. I was just generally speaking. Sorry.But I agree with what you are saying. Last year I drafted Sweed/Hardy in the 1st round, and passed on guys like CJ3. Im just gonna sit tight and hope they develop in to something within a year or 2. However, I expected this when I drafted them. If you draft someone and try to flip them in a year, you usually will not get value back.

 

[CBower4545]

I am not ready to give up on Thomas or Sweed. Kelly makes me a little nervous and I have almost zero faith in Hardy.(I am not even sure he is the best prospect on Buffalo, I like Steve Johnson) I think the guys most likely to transition well to the NFL and have value this year will be Britt and Robiskie though I don't think they will be the best of this class years done the road. Robiskie is smart and Britt is tough, and both are excellent route runners. They both landed in places where this is a chance to move up the depth chart and I think their strengths lend themselves to being the type of players you could see on the field this year. I think for the most part Nicks, Maclin, Harvin, and DHB are better playmakers but they have more to work on. They didn't have to run the routes that Robiskie and Britt did, and so they have more to learn. I think you have to be patient with those four that all have upside but they are decent risks. I am not a patient guy, So I would probably take Thomas or Sweed over the rookies. Not sure about Kelly and I would take all 6 over Hardy.

 

[EBF]

Yes, Royal and Avery and DeSean Jackson emerged. Yes, there's always going to be WR's that don't pan out. But last year, Kelly, Hardy, Thomas, Sweed were pretty close to being consensus top WR picks amongst the class. This year, their value is almost complete garbage. Do they have a chance this year? Which of these top guys has the best chances to gain value this year? Which still has the most upside?

My guess is that 1-2 of the sleeper sophomore WRs will eventually become good NFL starters. I think their value tumbled in part because they didn't show much potential as rookies and in part because they weren't phenomenal prospects in the first place. Remember, none of these guys were first round picks in the draft. In rough order of preference, here's my take on them:Thomas - Not as good as I thought he was, but has the tools to start and a pretty wide open opportunity.Nelson - Not the most exciting athlete, but the organization liked him a lot and he could start in 2010. WR2-WR3 potential.Bennett - Never stood out to me. Like his opportunity though. He's set to start and Cutler trusts him. Sweed - Kind of a poor man's Reggie Wayne. Lacks blazing speed and sheer size, but good athlete. Decent gamble at his cost. Burton - Not a sure thing from a talent standpoint. Made some nice plays last year though. Biggest asset is opportunity. Kelly - Nice talent with modest upside. If it weren't for the knee, I'd be recommending him. Don't know if he'll ever be healthy though.Caldwell - Intriguing athlete with a long term opportunity. Underachiever whose results don't equal the sum of his parts.Doucet - Pretty mediocre talent. Poor man's Boldin. Very best case scenario is Cotchery. More likely scenario is Arnaz Battle.Douglas - Nice talent, but looks like a career slot WR to me. Only has value in deep best ball leagues.Manningham - Never thought he was very good. Nothing has changed my mind. Hardy - Bust. Bum knee. Can't run. No quickness. No power. Just a tall guy with hands. Simpson - DOA bust. Overhyped size/speed guy with no real game. Dex. Jackson - Meh. In my view this group is pretty much a grab bag. 5-6 of these guys have enough upside to justify a minor investment. None of them look so good that I'm actively targeting them in all of my leagues.

Are the Nicks/Britt/Maclin/Harvin/DHB guys gonna follow the same path?

Some of them inevitably will. Rookie WRs almost always drop in perceived value unless they explode out of the gate.If I had to guess, I'd say DHB, Britt, and Maclin will slip. I don't see those guys making much noise this year.I think Harvin and Nicks have an ideal combination of talent and opportunity. If you want those guys, you'd better grab them now.

 

[CBower4545]

Rookie WRs need 3 years to develop. Dont compare them to the ones that succeed in year one. That doesnt always happen. Dont label any of them a bust until after next year. Thats my take on it.

I didn't label them a bust. But their value, for the most part, is complete garbage right now. For example, in a 14 team league with 22 man rosters, I can't even give away Hardy for the last pick of the draft. Similarly, the other guys listed have minimal value. These were 1st/early 2nd round picks just 1 year ago. Now you can't even get a 3rd or 4th round pick for them?This is why I also believe that late 1sts and 2nds are often overrated in value. I'd rather take a player of known value already in the league than try and get lucky to hit the next Royal or DeSean because I'm likely going to miss and end up with nothing to show for it.

I didnt think you were implying they were a bust. I was just generally speaking. Sorry.But I agree with what you are saying. Last year I drafted Sweed/Hardy in the 1st round, and passed on guys like CJ3. :(Im just gonna sit tight and hope they develop in to something within a year or 2. However, I expected this when I drafted them. If you draft someone and try to flip them in a year, you usually will not get value back.

I've been holding Hardy too in the one league I have him, but it wouldn't take a big offer to pry him from me. Hardy just didn't show any explosiveness as a rookie and I wonder how he will be after the torn ACL. he just didn't seem to play very physical either and for a 6-6 guy that surprised me. He did have a couple of nice catches last year though, can jump, and use his size in the redzone. I hope he breaks out in year three but I just don't have much faith in it actually happening.