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What If?!? Monday Mock Draft - 3/8/10 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Cecil Lammey
- Start date
D'OHtis
Footballguy
Nice work. I think it'd be a major league hit if NE got Dez. IMO They need some youth and explosion back in that offense [in a big way IMO]
I like the Spiller pick (SF is where I have him going as well). Having another RB to take 100 or so carries off Gore is only going to make Gore last longer and makes the SF as a whole better [and they can utilize Spiller to his strengths -- in space/returning].
I'd be shocked if SD went Gerhart in Round 1. [Or that Gerhart went in the 1st period] Equally as shocked if Tebow/McCoy went round 1, but stranger things have happened.
I like the Spiller pick (SF is where I have him going as well). Having another RB to take 100 or so carries off Gore is only going to make Gore last longer and makes the SF as a whole better [and they can utilize Spiller to his strengths -- in space/returning].
I'd be shocked if SD went Gerhart in Round 1. [Or that Gerhart went in the 1st period] Equally as shocked if Tebow/McCoy went round 1, but stranger things have happened.
Cecil Lammey
Footballguy
massraider
Footballguy
Just wanted to give credit for this idea.
Draft prognostication is a massive exercise in groupthink. As draftniks update them, the only changes that tend to get made are ones based on players workouts, and free agency moves. The original thinking for slotting a player doesn't get questioned enough. Forcing yourself to make outlandish predictions is great not so much because you get THAT one right, but maybe you get ones down the line right, as teams have to make a pick when their guy (or the guy you THINK is their guy) isn't on the board.
Good stuff, and I bet you nail a few of the surprises that no one else gets.
Draft prognostication is a massive exercise in groupthink. As draftniks update them, the only changes that tend to get made are ones based on players workouts, and free agency moves. The original thinking for slotting a player doesn't get questioned enough. Forcing yourself to make outlandish predictions is great not so much because you get THAT one right, but maybe you get ones down the line right, as teams have to make a pick when their guy (or the guy you THINK is their guy) isn't on the board.
Good stuff, and I bet you nail a few of the surprises that no one else gets.
FUBAR
Footballguy
doowain
Footballguy
The only way I see the Bengals passing on Dez is if they somehow manage to snag Marshall. Having said that, there is almost no chance he makes it that far anyway.
wadegarrett
FFA Legend™
No way the Browns pass on Eric Berry in this scenario.
ETA: And frankly, I'd be pissed if they did.
ETA: And frankly, I'd be pissed if they did.
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FUBAR
Footballguy
I think you're right, the Bengals would take him with the 21st overall pick.coincidently...The only way I see the Bengals passing on Dez is if they somehow manage to snag Marshall. Having said that, there is almost no chance he makes it that far anyway.
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
I like the Eagles pick but it would be very interesting to see what they do in that spot especially with Davis, Thomas and Graham all still there and all positions of need. I personlly would prefer Thomas who could play FS and even CB if needed, then followed by Davis, Graham and Dunlap. Dunlap from what I understand has off the field trouble (could be mistaken) and if so they wouldn't touch him.
i would be very disheartened if the steelers passed on haden for a center. i know...no push up the middle. and maybe with CB depth they could snag one in the 2nd. still, how often do they get a chance to get a big-time talent at CB? i believe the year was 1987, and the man was rod woodson.
Idiot Boxer
Footballguy
While I would LOVE the Steelers to commit to OL in round 1, I don't see them doing it if Haden is available.i would be very disheartened if the steelers passed on haden for a center. i know...no push up the middle. and maybe with CB depth they could snag one in the 2nd. still, how often do they get a chance to get a big-time talent at CB? i believe the year was 1987, and the man was rod woodson.
Ridgelake
Footballguy
Cecil, some interesting thoughts. I'll only comment on a couple of areas.
Tebow to Buffalo? In the first. Mmmmkay. 2nd round I could see.
Derrick Morgan to Dallas. How does he fit their scheme? SOLB? DE? I can't see Dallas drafting an SOLB as Anthony Spencer showed he's ready for prime time last year. At ~270, can Morgan bulk up to play 3-4 DE?
I have a very hard time seeing them go that route with Earl Thomas and Trent Williams on the board. Those guys likely have similar grades to Morgan and are at positions of much higher need.
Tebow to Buffalo? In the first. Mmmmkay. 2nd round I could see.
Derrick Morgan to Dallas. How does he fit their scheme? SOLB? DE? I can't see Dallas drafting an SOLB as Anthony Spencer showed he's ready for prime time last year. At ~270, can Morgan bulk up to play 3-4 DE?
I have a very hard time seeing them go that route with Earl Thomas and Trent Williams on the board. Those guys likely have similar grades to Morgan and are at positions of much higher need.
Cecil Lammey
Footballguy
Thanks massraider!The draft is always full of surprises, and even those that follow it closely or draftniks like me are shocked by some of the picks of the first-round.With "What If?!?" I look at overall themes, position runs, and potential surprise picks to spark conversation.
Cecil Lammey
Footballguy
Tebow is the one that sparks the most debate/controversy. The Chan Gailey fit would be awesome for him - but better for the Bills if it was in the second-round.If 4 went in the first-round, who would the fourth one be? I would love to say Dan LeFevour, and I still believe when all things are said and done he could be the best QB to come from this draft class. However, I don't see any possibility of him going in the first. Tebow/McCoy - yeah, they shouldn't go in the first, but I could see them as premium picks more than my boy LeFevour.although I don't see Tebow as one of the 4.
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Cecil Lammey
Footballguy
His draft stock is taking a major hit right now because of off field concerns. The word is teams feel that he's very immature, has anger issues, and can be mentally taken out of a game with aggressive coverage.The only way I see the Bengals passing on Dez is if they somehow manage to snag Marshall. Having said that, there is almost no chance he makes it that far anyway.
It was SOOOOOO hard for me not to mock him to the Bengals at that spot, but it seemed like too automatic of an answer.
I thought if they signed T.O. this week then maybe even they would pass on the best WR with major character concerns.
I love Dez Bryant, and he is head and shoulders above the rest of the WR class - however - the culture/mindset of the Patriots might be the perfect fit for him. He'll learn how to be a professional with one of the best QBs in the game throwing to him.
Cecil Lammey
Footballguy
Cecil Lammey
Footballguy
Thomas was definitely up for that spot in this mock, and it could be a great fit! Dunlap was arrested for DUI before the SEC championship game (4 days before) and was suspended for the contest. He's underachieved for most all of his career, so a strong team with leadership would be the best place for him.I like the Eagles pick but it would be very interesting to see what they do in that spot especially with Davis, Thomas and Graham all still there and all positions of need. I personlly would prefer Thomas who could play FS and even CB if needed, then followed by Davis, Graham and Dunlap. Dunlap from what I understand has off the field trouble (could be mistaken) and if so they wouldn't touch him.
Cecil Lammey
Footballguy
Another pick that was very hard for me to pass up here....i would be very disheartened if the steelers passed on haden for a center. i know...no push up the middle. and maybe with CB depth they could snag one in the 2nd. still, how often do they get a chance to get a big-time talent at CB? i believe the year was 1987, and the man was rod woodson.
Both are considered the best at their positions, but who could start from day one - and who has the shortest learning curve?
To me that answer is Pouncey. He's battle tested, starting every game for the last 2 years in the best conference in college football. He's a tough player that performed well against guys like Dan Williams and Terrence Cody.
Haden is physically gifted, but I don't see the same type of player like a Darrelle Revis. It comes down to instincts. Haden too often can get fooled by double moves and will bite because his route recognition (at this time) isn't sharp. He's also not the most sound tackler in the open field.
He's still considered the best CB by most in the scouting community, and I'm just nitpicking his skill set. But if I am, you know that NFL teams are and have during this pre-draft process.
Cecil Lammey
Footballguy
Thanks to you (and everyone) for checking out the mock!Tebow in the first is a stretch - for sure - but with so many football minds (Sam Wyche, Marc Trestman) believing in him I could see Buddy Nix taking a chance on him there. Again, the Chan Gailey fit would be perhaps the most ideal for Tebow in the NFL.Morgan at DE in Dallas. He's a solid all-around guy who plays with a physical style that would fit in perfect for Dallas. Sound tackler, high motor, and does not stop battling until the whistle blows. Earl Thomas would be a great pick there as well.
As a Bills fan, I'm starting to think the team is looking at Tebow too. I really have no idea how I should feel about that. I guess if/when it happens I'll love the intangibles and hope on board the bandwagon, but deep down inside I'll be waiting for the epic failure to start showing itself.
Ridgelake
Footballguy
First round draft picks, especially in the top 10, should not be major risks. There is too much investment in these guys to take materially more risk than is necessary. Tebow is a risky pick. His throwing motion. His accuracy. His lack of under-center play. A southern guy playing in one of the coldest, windy-est stadiums in the NFL. He does have big upside given his size, movement, and intangibles. I just don't see how anyone could take on this much risk in the top 10, however. Maybe late first round. Second round, yes. But wow, that would be a huge roll of the dice. Does it make sense for the first moves by this new regime to be such a crapshoot?Regarding Morgan, I'm not arguing that he doesnt posess the attributes you mention. I'm questioning whether he has the size to play 3-4 DE. Dallas really likes guys in the 300 range for that spot. Maybe 290. Having watched them for years, they are definitely a club that has prototypes for various positions on their rosters. I'd find it rather unlikely to see them vary significantly from the prototypes in the first round. Its possible that he has such unusual characteristics in other areas that they'd bend their model. But again, I'd find it unlikely.
My money is on LeFevour going before either Tebow or McCoy, maybe both.Tebow is the one that sparks the most debate/controversy. The Chan Gailey fit would be awesome for him - but better for the Bills if it was in the second-round.If 4 went in the first-round, who would the fourth one be? I would love to say Dan LeFevour, and I still believe when all things are said and done he could be the best QB to come from this draft class. However, I don't see any possibility of him going in the first. Tebow/McCoy - yeah, they shouldn't go in the first, but I could see them as premium picks more than my boy LeFevour.although I don't see Tebow as one of the 4.
THIS.Everything I hear is about Dez underwhelming and causing some worries amongst teams. Now, that's all smoke right now, but if we continue to hear it, he might slide further than people think.His draft stock is taking a major hit right now because of off field concerns. The word is teams feel that he's very immature, has anger issues, and can be mentally taken out of a game with aggressive coverage.The only way I see the Bengals passing on Dez is if they somehow manage to snag Marshall. Having said that, there is almost no chance he makes it that far anyway.
There's always one....
Good stuff as always Cec.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Just myTebow is the one that sparks the most debate/controversy. The Chan Gailey fit would be awesome for him - but better for the Bills if it was in the second-round.If 4 went in the first-round, who would the fourth one be? I would love to say Dan LeFevour, and I still believe when all things are said and done he could be the best QB to come from this draft class. However, I don't see any possibility of him going in the first. Tebow/McCoy - yeah, they shouldn't go in the first, but I could see them as premium picks more than my boy LeFevour.although I don't see Tebow as one of the 4.
30. Minnesota - Dan LeFevour, CMU QBIt is hard to see 4 QBs going in the first round but mostly because aside from maybe Cincinnati and Arizona, the teams picking 18-29 don't need a QB. Wouldn't be shocked to see someone trade up like Baltimore did for Flacco (this time from the early 2nd)
Cecil Lammey
Footballguy
I would love that!
Cecil Lammey
Footballguy
Trust me, I'm not a fan of Tebow (whatsoever), and was very critical of his performance at the Senior Bowl practices- from my QB rankings at Draftguys -
8. Tim Tebow - Florida, 6’3” 236 lbs. - Tebow is the most debated quarterback in recent draft history. His intangibles are off the charts, and he’s one of the best leaders in the history of college football. Tebow is built like a linebacker, and can take big hits yet stay in the game. He can throw on the run, and moves well behind the line of scrimmage. He will get out in front of a running play and can block effectively for a wide receiver on an end around. Scouts are most concerned about his ability to develop as a passer. He primarily worked out of the shotgun at Florida, but during the week of Senior Bowl practice he improved his footwork when dropping back. Tebow also improved his footwork when stepping into a throw (he used to take a larger than necessary step when throwing). However, the biggest work needs to be done to his throwing motion. Not only is his motion elongated, but he has a hitch in it where he stops at the bottom of the motion before restarting it to release. He could be a Wildcat or gadget quarterback during his rookie season, but has a lot of work to do before he can develop into anything resembling a full time starter.
He's best suited as a second-round pick - at best, but if the Bills think he won't be there when the pick gets back to them I could see them pulling the trigger.
If I have a quibble - and it's not a huge one - but if I have one, I would say The Niners taking Kindle at #17 with Trent Williams still on the board would be it. Now, part of that is colored by a group mock I am doing on bleacherreport where I essentially did the same thing you did with #13 (CJ Spiller and boy am did I hear about THAT), but at 17 taking Williams instead.
I think the oline in SF is a critical need and if Williams is there, it's hard to imagine them taking anyone else.
On the other hand they need pass protection and if he has a weakness, that's where he is still raw. They also need a pass rusher so it';s not as if Kindle is a bad pick at all. Just something that stood out.
I say this knowing that if Williams fell to the Jets you know I would do flips across the room.
Once again props for the work PLUS not giving my Jets a WR in the first.
I think the oline in SF is a critical need and if Williams is there, it's hard to imagine them taking anyone else.
On the other hand they need pass protection and if he has a weakness, that's where he is still raw. They also need a pass rusher so it';s not as if Kindle is a bad pick at all. Just something that stood out.
I say this knowing that if Williams fell to the Jets you know I would do flips across the room.
Once again props for the work PLUS not giving my Jets a WR in the first.
5Rings
Lurker
Yah, not a fan of what you did there with Spiller. I'm not seeing that at all.I do see Arenas in rd 2 if Haden doesn't fall to 13. A CB/KR guy kills two birds with one stone.
n20
Footballguy
Nice mock!I think the only reason the Scot McCloughan would draft Spiller is because he missed so badly on a game changer in DeSean Jackson and took Balmer who, quite frankly, blows. I could see Scot learning from that "lesson" and taking the more explosive player if he falls to them but... I doubt it happens.
Also, I have to admit I threw up in my mouth a little when I read Gerhart to the Chargers. Don't get me wrong, he's not terrible... I just never thought of him going to SD before. It could happen (especially since they retained Sproles) but I think it would be a serious waste of a potential fantasy goldmine situation, RB 1 in San Diego's offense. Yuck.
Great write up, keep them coming!
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I think they desperately need a dynamic returner - the Niners are TERRIBLE in the punt and kick return aspects of the game. On top of that, the jury is still out on Coffee, who basically brings a very similar game to Gore anyway and their 3rd back is Robinson who isn't much of a back nor a good returner.I could see Spiller fall into the Niners camp really easily actually.That said and again - more leaning towards tackle at this point if I had to do mine over again. Be interested to see what Cec has next week in terms of gimmicks...Also - I love Gerhart and I think actually he could be solid as a RB1 for the Chahgahs. I've seen Mathews go there more and more often though so we'll see.
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Sinrman
Footballguy
Love the 'What Ifs..."
Just don't entirely see where everyone pegs a RB in the 1st for SF. Sure, Gore has some mileage now and there's always those bum knees looming. But I think they are willing to go with Coffee (even at the pitiful YPC he had last year) if Gore goes down or needs a breather. At least for another year or two. I don't see them investing such a high pick for a position that isn't a glaring need. Even if it's for a more speedy guy, like some teams are doing.
Also, I don't see Buffalo going Tebow, at least not in the 1st. I see them going Clausen or maybe waiting it out until the 2nd to see if McCoy is available. Maybe even Lefevour (sp?). Even with Gailey's history, I don't see them investing such a high pick on a major work-in-progress. His move to Buffalo would almost be a banishment, in my opinion, and would negate a lot of the hype surrounding him. I can only see him going to a team near where he lives in the south. Jax is the obvious destination, and I can still see it happening in the 2nd or later. But even someone like Carolina maybe with the release of Delhomme and not 100% sure if Moore is able to pick it up, or maybe Miami if they are still iffy on Henne...?
Just don't entirely see where everyone pegs a RB in the 1st for SF. Sure, Gore has some mileage now and there's always those bum knees looming. But I think they are willing to go with Coffee (even at the pitiful YPC he had last year) if Gore goes down or needs a breather. At least for another year or two. I don't see them investing such a high pick for a position that isn't a glaring need. Even if it's for a more speedy guy, like some teams are doing.
Also, I don't see Buffalo going Tebow, at least not in the 1st. I see them going Clausen or maybe waiting it out until the 2nd to see if McCoy is available. Maybe even Lefevour (sp?). Even with Gailey's history, I don't see them investing such a high pick on a major work-in-progress. His move to Buffalo would almost be a banishment, in my opinion, and would negate a lot of the hype surrounding him. I can only see him going to a team near where he lives in the south. Jax is the obvious destination, and I can still see it happening in the 2nd or later. But even someone like Carolina maybe with the release of Delhomme and not 100% sure if Moore is able to pick it up, or maybe Miami if they are still iffy on Henne...?
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