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What is a dynasty 1st/2nd round pick worth? (1 Viewer)

starks

Footballguy
Our league recently switched over to dynasty and I was hoping to get insight into the value of say a 1st, 2nd, 3rd...etc round pick. Of course, you have to consider ppr vaule, # of teams, settings...etc. And a 1.1 is going to be more valuable than a 1.7 or 1.10 but when you are rebuilding or looking to acquire another owners top pick, what is a reasonable offer for a first rounder early in the season before you can really start thinking about where that team will finish?

For instance right now (and this is just an example, I am not trying to sneak an assistant coach question in here) would an offer of say Peyton Manning be acceptable for another first pick or would it be something closer to Russell Wilson? I doubt many would part with young studs like Julio or D Thomas but would an Andre Johnson be considered a fair trade for a top 2014 pick?

Who are players comparable to 2nd or 3rd round picks, or vice versa what rounds would you give up to acquire a player? Could it be as simple as saying a general RB4 is worth a round 3 or 4 trade? Are there any good websites that can be referenced in calculating the worth of a dynasty pick/player?

Thanks in advance.

 
Lots of variables but the biggest variable has to be how others in your league value players... Particularly when u are talking about age of those players in dynasty formats... An RB who is 28 or 29 but a stud like SJax probably to most people is NOT worth a 1st rd rookie pick and in some situations a 2nd rd rookie pick may be a little too steep of an asking price as well... Exceptions are typically made when somebody is looking like they have a shot to win it all in a given yr and they want to LOAD UP for that last final push... In my standard scoring non-ppr 12 team league that is in yr 4 now we had a situation that I would find relevant... To move from an early 2nd rd pick to middle of first rd it took the following trade:

Colston

Joique Bell

2.2 rookie pick

3.5 rookie pick

For

1.5 rookie pick

3.9 rookie pick

But in the same league SJax was on the trade block all offseason for a late 1st rd rookie pick with zero nibbles (reportedly)

Again I think your biggest asset will be understanding what your individual league mates value and where they feel their team stands in the league... Where do they feel strong and where do they feel weak? Knowing these things can help u understand how to build strong trading relationships... Some may value rookie picks like lotto tickets and would prefer to build with known commodities already proven effective

Others may like the gamble of the shiny new object that was just drafted by his favorite team

Have fun and good luck... Dynasty is the way to go in my opinion

 
These are stocks and the values go up and down all season long. Right now 1st and 2nd round picks are probably worth the least. Normally in our league - when teams are making the push - a 1st round pick can get you a decent starter down the stretch. However in the off season is when these stock start to go up and up. Starting with the NFL draft - draft picks will have a huge spike in value as owners start to get excited when they see the stars starting to align up. (IE Lacy to the Packers, Hopkins to Houston, etc). Then in the preseason the top 3-5 picks will start to separate themselves form the pack as everyone does their mock draft there usually seems to to be a "drop off" point in value. Then draft day - this is when these 1st and 2nd rounders are worth the most. But as soon as the pick is made - they seem to instantly lose at least 50% in value. It is "making the pick" or "getting the guy you want" that gives the pick values. Once you got the guy - it isn't so exciting anymore.

This year the hype started to get going on Christine Micheal - especially with some of his preseason runs. Just how high should he go and where would he go? When we got to pick 6 - the owner at 10 realized there was no way to get him. In full "I gotta get my guy mode" - traded pick 10 along with another 2014 1st and 2nd to move up 4 spots in the draft to get Micheal. The best thing is that the guy at 6 had no interest in Micheal and viewed him as the 3rd string RB - which I guess he is right now. Once the pick was made - the value plummets.

I love acquiring 1st rounders and trading them away during the preseason when owners are targeting their guy. Unless of course I have "my guy" out there.

 
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Like anything else, a rookie first rounder is worth whatever someone is willing to pay for it. That "worth" will fluctuate through the year. At this time of the year, rookie firsts are near the cheapest they're going to be all year (the cheapest is typically around week 5 or 6, when no one has been eliminated yet, everyone is thinking about loading up to make a run, and no college players are really standing out from the pack yet). At this point of the year, it's typically difficult to trade a first rounder for someone who is putting up reliable points, because other teams can't envision weakening their immediate lineup, even if there's a long-term payoff. The corollary is that, at this time of the year, it's usually possible to trade a player- any player- who is putting up consistent points in exchange for future firsts, if you're willing to take the short-term hit to your lineup. New dynasties are always difficult to get a handle on though, especially if you're playing with other inexperienced owners, simply because NO ONE really knows how to value those firsts yet, and everyone is being cautious because they've never done it before.

As for my philosophy towards future firsts... in my mind, building a dynasty roster is all about acquiring cornerstone players. Cornerstone players are players who are (a) young, (b) proven, and © special talents. That's a very powerful combination of attributes. Player value in dynasty is extremely volatile, and guys who today seem like really solid pieces will tomorrow be completely worthless. The only guys who will hold their value over a 3-year window are those cornerstone guys, so if you can trade some non-cornerstone players for some cornerstone players, those trades will always look like steals in hindsight. To give an example from my leagues... back in 2010 I gave up Mike Wallace, Knowshon Moreno, and Joe Flacco for Brandon Marshall, a 2nd, and a 3rd. At the time, it looked like a ridiculous overpay, but what has happened since then? Wallace's value has tanked, Moreno's value has tanked, Flacco's value has stagnated, and Marshall is still a top-10 receiver three years later. Approach the Brandon Marshall owner with that trade today and he'll laugh at you. Typically, the guy who wins the trade is the guy whose side retains his value the longest.

With that in mind, at this time of year, I'm usually looking into packaging together some guys who I don't really believe in to try to get future firsts. Usually deals like that are available. In the past, I've managed to trade James Jones for a future first and I've managed to trade Lee Evans, Ben Tate, and Stevie Johnson for two firsts. When a team with superbowl aspirations suffered a late injury at RB and was forced to start garbage at his RB2 position, I traded LaDainian Tomlinson (when he was with the Jets), Brandon Jackson, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis (when he was still with the Pats) for Stevie Johnson and a future first. All of those trades were fair value at the time (the Stevie / 1st trade was a little bit more than fair value because the guy was desperate, but it didn't raise any eyebrows in my league). Those were all just guys who I thought were mediocre talents and unlikely to ever become cornerstones, so I moved them for some lottery tickets. I didn't luck into any high picks out of those deals- those picks wound up netting me 1.07, 1.07, 1.08, and 1.09 in various years' drafts- but I still turned those late picks into Greg Little, Randall Cobb, David Wilson, and Le'Veon Bell. Cobb is a cornerstone talent, and Wilson and Bell might yet prove to be as well (although I've already cashed in on Wilson and traded him away for Brandon Marshall).

Also, people believe that first rounders are risky assets because they might bust, but established players might bust, too (witness Mike Wallace). Draft picks never get injured, they never have a bad game, they never get suspended. If you get three or more draft picks, even if all three are late, you're usually going to walk out of the draft with at least one future stud. Their value always increases as time goes by, and they don't take up a roster spot, which means you never have to make tough decisions about who to cut. And on occasion, even a "bad" pick will hit the jackpot and become top 3 because even good teams will sometimes get screwed by injuries or schedule luck. All-in-all, first round picks are about the safest investment you can make in dynasty leagues.

 
I am going to agree with what every one else here is stating. But, I think there is one basic principle that you need to remember which has been insinuated but not spelled out definitively:

Once you know the exact pick spot, and which players are available there. That is when the pick has it's highest value. Let me illustrate this with a few examples:

Just before our leagues draft I traded away Calvin Johnson for the 1.1 and 1.7 and a couple other picks two years ago. Basically the guy I traded with gave me his entire draft for Calvin. I have been without a long term option at QB and I knew I could get a guy at 1.1 who would last, I took Luck. At that point I knew exactly who I could get with the pick and it had it's highest value.

This season during our draft I traded for Doug Martin. I gave away 4 draft picks and Jordy Nelson. The picks were a 2nd this year, and my 1st, 2nd and 3rd next year. I again had to give away basically an entire drafts worth of picks. However, no one knows where those picks will be, and we don't know exactly who will be available, or even who is going to be in the draft for sure. I had to throw in Nelson to even up the value since the picks are worth less.

I hope that helps explain the value of 1st round picks. You can argue about who won those trades, but essentially they illustrate my point. Known picks (both which spot and who is available), are much more valuable than unknown picks. You can exploit this, just like Harstad stated above.

 

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