What is AP worth before the season starts? (1 Viewer)

[rickyg]

I am wondering about AP and his production this year. Everyone is basically just pegging him as the no-brainer #1 pick for every draft. Coming off one of the most amazing and prolific fantasy seasons ever (especially given the acl), I have serious doubts that he will approach 2000 yards again this year.

He is still the centerpiece of his offense which is a plus.

A bad offense which is a minus. I know it was a bad offense last year and he still tore it up but how many of you really think he is going to have that type of production again, after a boat load of carries and anther year older this year?

In the history of the nfl no player who has ever had a season like ap's has done it again in back to back years.

That said, if you want to keep him as the #1 draft pick bc you feel it's money in the bank that he will run for 1500 yards and have 10+ Tds, then I can't argue with that. He does represent safety.

What I'm getting at here is this:

Is it crazy to use your #1 pick on ap and then flip him for a kings ransom now before the season starts? I don't think his perceived value will be higher again this year than it is right now, with his 2100 yard season still fresh in everyone's memory.

What if you can get lesean McCoy and Fitzgerald for him?

Trich and bmarsh? Something like that.

Seems worth it to me.

 

[meyerj31]

What if you can get lesean McCoy and Fitzgerald for him?

Trich and bmarsh? Something like that.

Seems worth it to me.

Sure, if anyone is willing to pay that much. I doubt anyone is giving a consensus 1st and 2nd round pick for the 1.01, but maybe you play with guppies.

 

[Man of Zen]

Yeah that price seems pretty steep.

If I'm holding #1, I'm happy to swap it for a pick almost anywhere in the first round, if I can also swap out an endgame pick for one that lands me somewhere in the top 70 or so, since that's about where I feel a dropoff in reliability happens this year.

 

[rickyg]

My point is you gotta put the feelers out there. You may e surprised at what some people might be willing to give up for him.

 

[Lucky Dolfan 81]

I picked the 1.01 in my redraft this year attempting to use this strategy. I announced I wanted to move back in the first round. The response: Dead silence.

 

[rickyg]

I picked the 1.01 in my redraft this year attempting to use this strategy. I announced I wanted to move back in the first round. The response: Dead silence.

Interesting...maybe there are a lot more people that believe ap will regress back to the herd than I thought.

 

[montana_grizzly_bears]

I picked the 1.01 in my redraft this year attempting to use this strategy. I announced I wanted to move back in the first round. The response: Dead silence.

You need to be proctive. Noone wants to be the guy to speak up first. Know where you re comfortable sliding to, and go from there. If you think pick 5 is the best slot, start up tlks with tht person. Its just like trades in the regular season, send the offer more than likely if you face to face you get a response.Eta: cleaned it up some. Hate typing on an ipad.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

I picked the 1.01 in my redraft this year attempting to use this strategy. I announced I wanted to move back in the first round. The response: Dead silence.

You need to be proctive. Noone wnts to be the guy to speak up first. Know where you re comfortable sliding to and go from there. If you pick 5 is the best slot, start up tlks with tht persom. Its just like trdes in the regulr season, send the offer more than likely if you face to face you get a response.

right probably someone in the league doesn't think a trade is realistic but maybe it is if you send an offer.

 

[EBF]

I think he's overvalued. Players usually are after a flukey career year. His rushing yards will probably drop back down to his career norms of 1300-1500 yards. That will still make him a strong contender for a top 3 RB spot, but I don't view him as the slam dunk obvious first guy off the board. Last year was the perfect storm and he's almost certainly due for significant regression. He'll be grossly overvalued in most auction formats. In typical snake drafts he's still a strong contender for the RB1 spot, but there are lots of guys with comparable prospects in PPR and I'd definitely look to trade down if that option is available to you.

 

[Inspiration]

I think he's overvalued. Players usually are after a flukey career year. His rushing yards will probably drop back down to his career norms of 1300-1500 yards. That will still make him a strong contender for a top 3 RB spot, but I don't view him as the slam dunk obvious first guy off the board. Last year was the perfect storm and he's almost certainly due for significant regression. He'll be grossly overvalued in most auction formats. In typical snake drafts he's still a strong contender for the RB1 spot, but there are lots of guys with comparable prospects in PPR and I'd definitely look to trade down if that option is available to you.

I'd agree with this. Peterson was the lowest scoring #1 RB in PPR since Matt Forte in 2008. His season wasn't that special from a fantasy perspective.

 

[JackReacher]

I think he's overvalued. Players usually are after a flukey career year. His rushing yards will probably drop back down to his career norms of 1300-1500 yards. That will still make him a strong contender for a top 3 RB spot, but I don't view him as the slam dunk obvious first guy off the board. Last year was the perfect storm and he's almost certainly due for significant regression. He'll be grossly overvalued in most auction formats. In typical snake drafts he's still a strong contender for the RB1 spot, but there are lots of guys with comparable prospects in PPR and I'd definitely look to trade down if that option is available to you.

Who else would you consider in the one hole EBF?

 

[EBF]

I think he's overvalued. Players usually are after a flukey career year. His rushing yards will probably drop back down to his career norms of 1300-1500 yards. That will still make him a strong contender for a top 3 RB spot, but I don't view him as the slam dunk obvious first guy off the board. Last year was the perfect storm and he's almost certainly due for significant regression. He'll be grossly overvalued in most auction formats. In typical snake drafts he's still a strong contender for the RB1 spot, but there are lots of guys with comparable prospects in PPR and I'd definitely look to trade down if that option is available to you.

Who else would you consider in the one hole EBF?

I would look to trade down 6-7 spots. I think there's good depth this year and I think the players you'll be getting in the back half of the first round are pretty comparable in expected value compared to the guys you'd be taking at the front. If I had to pick someone, I'd probably take Calvin. I think he's the best WR/RB in the NFL at the moment and the one guy who can perennially be expected to give you an edge over everyone at his position.

At RB, I think you have a cluster of 6-7 guys who all have a similar chance of finishing as the RB1. In PPR leagues that group includes Peterson, McCoy, Charles, Martin, Richardson, and Spiller. Those guys won't all be great when the dust settles, but given what we know now I think they're neck-and-neck for draft slots.

 

[stbugs]

What if you can get lesean McCoy and Fitzgerald for him?

Trich and bmarsh? Something like that.

Seems worth it to me.

Sure, if anyone is willing to pay that much. I doubt anyone is giving a consensus 1st and 2nd round pick for the 1.01, but maybe you play with guppies.

I'm picking first in one league for the first time ever in my long FF career. I would take both of those trades in a heart beat (the first one before my heart has a chance).

I am picking AP because I like him the best. Chances are, he won't finish 1st because the odds are against him and I certainly don't think he is going to get 2000 yards. I do think that he has a very good shot at 1300-1500 rushing yards, 12 TDs and 30-40 receptions/200-300 receiving yards. That is most likely a top 5 RB and if he is healthy all year, that is most likely his floor. If you pro-rate his 2011 season, he would have been top 5 and that would mean he would have been top 5 for every year of his career. Pretty damn consistent when #8 is his worst year and he only played 12 games.

Honestly, I don't see anyone else I would even think about taking over him.j

 

[montana_grizzly_bears]

What if you can get lesean McCoy and Fitzgerald for him?

Trich and bmarsh? Something like that.

Seems worth it to me.

Sure, if anyone is willing to pay that much. I doubt anyone is giving a consensus 1st and 2nd round pick for the 1.01, but maybe you play with guppies.

I'm picking first in one league for the first time ever in my long FF career. I would take both of those trades in a heart beat (the first one before my heart has a chance).I am picking AP because I like him the best. Chances are, he won't finish 1st because the odds are against him and I certainly don't think he is going to get 2000 yards. I do think that he has a very good shot at 1300-1500 rushing yards, 12 TDs and 30-40 receptions/200-300 receiving yards. That is most likely a top 5 RB and if he is healthy all year, that is most likely his floor. If you pro-rate his 2011 season, he would have been top 5 and that would mean he would have been top 5 for every year of his career. Pretty damn consistent when #8 is his worst year and he only played 12 games.

Honestly, I don't see anyone else I would even think about taking over him.j

What are you projecting for Calvin Johnson. I would take 100 recepts, 1500-1800 yards and 12-15 tds from him over what you said for AP just based on being in a ppr league. Those extra 60 recepts work out to just under 4 fp a week.

 

[stbugs]

What if you can get lesean McCoy and Fitzgerald for him?

Trich and bmarsh? Something like that.

Seems worth it to me.

Sure, if anyone is willing to pay that much. I doubt anyone is giving a consensus 1st and 2nd round pick for the 1.01, but maybe you play with guppies.

I'm picking first in one league for the first time ever in my long FF career. I would take both of those trades in a heart beat (the first one before my heart has a chance).I am picking AP because I like him the best. Chances are, he won't finish 1st because the odds are against him and I certainly don't think he is going to get 2000 yards. I do think that he has a very good shot at 1300-1500 rushing yards, 12 TDs and 30-40 receptions/200-300 receiving yards. That is most likely a top 5 RB and if he is healthy all year, that is most likely his floor. If you pro-rate his 2011 season, he would have been top 5 and that would mean he would have been top 5 for every year of his career. Pretty damn consistent when #8 is his worst year and he only played 12 games.

Honestly, I don't see anyone else I would even think about taking over him.j

What are you projecting for Calvin Johnson. I would take 100 recepts, 1500-1800 yards and 12-15 tds from him over what you said for AP just based on being in a ppr league. Those extra 60 recepts work out to just under 4 fp a week.

I love Calvin and he would be a great option, but this league for me is a start 2 WR league, so his value is a little diminished.

If you pro-rate AP's 2011, he was on pace for 1300 rushing yards. Ignoring that season (so pro-rating isn't an issue), he has between 1298-2097 rushing yards, so 1300-1500 is almost his career average. For TDs, even with him missing 4 games in 2011, AP has never had less than 10 total TDs and only 1 year had less than 13 TDs, so 12 TDs isn't much of a stretch. Same with the receiving, pretty close to his average. My point is that my projections for AP are basically about what he has done his entire career, if AP plays 15/16 games he will get my projections.

For Calvin, he has been spectacular, but he has had 5 or less TDs in 3 of his 6 years, including 2012. I think the 100 receptions is pretty safe, although 2007-2010, his high was 78. I think your low end yardage (1500) is pretty safe, but 1800 might be a little bit of a stretch with Bush on board. Anyway, I don't think your projections for Calvin are off at all and he is probably also about as safe as they come. I would say that AP and Calvin are probably the safest bets for being top 3/top 5 if they play the entire year (outside of the QBs). I just think that AP might be a tad bit safer just because he is a goal line RB, so all of his projections are pretty safe. Calvin most likely won't have close to 2000 yards receiving, but it is possible that he has a bad TD year again.

 

[Biabreakable]

Sure trade him.

 

[KellysHeroes]

I picked the 1.01 in my redraft this year attempting to use this strategy. I announced I wanted to move back in the first round. The response: Dead silence.

You need to be proctive. Noone wnts to be the guy to speak up first. Know where you re comfortable sliding to and go from there. If you pick 5 is the best slot, start up tlks with tht persom. Its just like trdes in the regulr season, send the offer more than likely if you face to face you get a response.

right probably someone in the league doesn't think a trade is realistic but maybe it is if you send an offer.

I had 1.01 in my redraft currently running and I really wouldn't consider moving it and not getting ADP, Hes just so much better than the other RBs.

 

[RushHour]

I picked the 1.01 in my redraft this year attempting to use this strategy. I announced I wanted to move back in the first round. The response: Dead silence.

You need to be proctive. Noone wnts to be the guy to speak up first. Know where you re comfortable sliding to and go from there. If you pick 5 is the best slot, start up tlks with tht persom. Its just like trdes in the regulr season, send the offer more than likely if you face to face you get a response.

right probably someone in the league doesn't think a trade is realistic but maybe it is if you send an offer.

I had 1.01 in my redraft currently running and I really wouldn't consider moving it and not getting ADP, Hes just so much better than the other RBs.

In real life, maybe. In fantasy, he's really not. Like another poster mentioned. He put up a WTF historical RB season last year and didn't really separate himself from the pack fantasy-wise. Sure, he was #1, but in PPR leagues, the gap wasn't that big.