What is the one stat that reveals who will be playoff bound? (1 Viewer)

[Wheelhouse]

I'm trying to figure out what stat will determine to a certain degree, which teams will be playoff bound. So I looked back to the 2005 season seeing if I could find the answer...

2005 playoff teams were

AFC: DEN, NE, CIN, JAC, PIT, IND

NFC: WAS, CAR, TB, NYG, SEA, CHI

Some stats I thought might be the determining factor...

1. Time of possession

Only the following playoff teams were in the top 12 in TOP: DEN, WAS, JAC, PIT, CIN, CAR, NE

7 playoff teams. Not enough to consider the stat I'm looking for...

2. Total yards on offense

Again, only 7 teams of the 12 playoff teams here: SEA, IND, NYG, DEN, CIN, NE, WAS

3. Fewest yards allowed on defense

Only 5 of the 12 playoff teams in the top 12 here: CHI, JAC, PIT, NYG, NE

So what's the stat I'm looking for?

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Wins?

 

[Wheelhouse]

Wins?

Funny, that's too obvious - I'm looking for something other than wins. I suppose I should've mentioned that in the beginning. edit to fix the title

 

[djcolts]

Some guesses:

TO margin.

Yards per play on offense compared to yards per play on defense.

QB Rating on offense vs. QB Rating on defense (I'd prefer a modified QB rating that penalizes for sacks and fumbles lost on offense for more accuracy).

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

I'm going to say point differential.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

I'm going to say point differential.

Let me modify that to say ratio of points scored to points allowed.

 

[Wheelhouse]

Some guesses:TO margin.Yards per play on offense compared to yards per play on defense.QB Rating on offense vs. QB Rating on defense (I'd prefer a modified QB rating that penalizes for sacks and fumbles lost on offense for more accuracy).

Good thought. I checked it out...TO margin has only 6 of the 12 playoff teams: IND, CHI, JAC, DEN, NE, CINThe other stats might be hard to figure out....

 

[Wheelhouse]

Total offensive TD's is pretty close... Here's the top 12 from 2005

Teams in bold were not playoff bound in 2005

SEA, IND, SD, CIN, DEN, KC, NE, CAR, PIT, NYG, WAS, JAC

10/12 teams.

So if we were to project this on the 2006 season....

SD, CHI, IND, DAL, PHI, NO, NYG, NE, KC, STL, PIT, CIN

It just so happens to be 6 in the AFC and 6 in the NFC

AFC: SD, IND, NE, KC, PIT, CIN

NFC: CHI, DAL, PHI, NO, NYG, STL

Note: No Seattle, Baltimore Denver or Atlanta

 

[MLBrandow]

this thread makes me chuckle.

 

[Wheelhouse]

this thread makes me chuckle.

What do you mean MLBrandow? If there's a way to forecast the playoff teams, I'd like to know about it.

 

[djcolts]

Yards per play differential (top 12 teams in 2005):

Seattle 0.9

Pittsburgh 0.8

Indianapolis 0.6

Denver 0.5

New York (N) 0.5

Carolina 0.5

Kansas City 0.4

San Diego 0.4

Miami 0.4

New England 0.2

Washington 0.2

Jacksonville 0.2

Tampa tied for 13th.Cincy and Chicago tied for 16th.

 

[redman]

I'm going to say point differential.

Followed by turnover margin.

 

[bro1ncos]

I would throw in 3rd down conversions and stopping 3rd down conversions.

 

[TD Ryan]

Quality Stats right here:

Quality Stats Page

they include:

Quality Wins (teams' win loss record based on games vs. opponents with a winning record). Who's had a cakewalk schedule and who's battle tested.

Bendability Index. Could be better named "defensive efficiency".

Scorability Index. Could be better named "scoring efficiency".

year after year, these stats reveal who's a playoff team and who ain't.

SD was was a surprise last year though... no stats are perfect but these reveal a lot.

 

[thatguy]

Hmm, maybe rushing yards allowed. Stopping the rush is key, and good teams tend to be in the lead a lot so tend to have less rushes against.

 

[stevegamer]

To properly anyalze this you will need to take the top team from each division & then the next best 2 in each conference.

You need to make sure you get 1 team from a crappy divsion, even if the team isn't so hot.

I'm thinking we might have that issue with some stats from 2006 excluding teams from the NFC west.

 

[Delusions Of Adequacy]

Fewest losses?

 

[sinatravolta]

I believe Yards Per Attempt and Yards per Opponent Attempt has historically been shown to be a very good predictor of winning.

It may actually be better than yards per play, or overall yardage. I think if you could know these 2 numbers, plus turnover differential, you'd have a really good idea who was winning.

 

[Wheelhouse]

Total offensive TD's is pretty close... Here's the top 12 from 2005

Teams in bold were not playoff bound in 2005

SEA, IND, SD, CIN, DEN, KC, NE, CAR, PIT, NYG, WAS, JAC

10/12 teams.

So if we were to project this on the 2006 season....

SD, CHI, IND, DAL, PHI, NO, NYG, NE, KC, STL, PIT, CIN

It just so happens to be 6 in the AFC and 6 in the NFC

AFC: SD, IND, NE, KC, PIT, CIN

NFC: CHI, DAL, PHI, NO, NYG, STL

Note: No Seattle, Baltimore Denver or Atlanta

Interesting... back in Nov. we had 9 of the 12 playoff teams correct by using this predicting stat. Teams that didn't project:AFC: NYJ, BAL

NFC: SEA

 

[Bankerguy]

I believe Yards Per Attempt and Yards per Opponent Attempt has historically been shown to be a very good predictor of winning.It may actually be better than yards per play, or overall yardage. I think if you could know these 2 numbers, plus turnover differential, you'd have a really good idea who was winning.

Bingo.Yards per Attempt.

 

[Wilbur Wood]

I don't see any "predictive" element in anything in this thread.

All you are doing is simply "correlating" certain stats compiled over the season with wins in those same games. None of this has anymore "forward looking" aspect to it than simply looking at current won/loss record.

Sure, net turnover differential and yards gained per pass attempt and yards yielded per pass attempt will correlate with wins and losses very well.

Nothing new, no insight.

 

[Dave Stauff]

I believe Yards Per Attempt and Yards per Opponent Attempt has historically been shown to be a very good predictor of winning.It may actually be better than yards per play, or overall yardage. I think if you could know these 2 numbers, plus turnover differential, you'd have a really good idea who was winning.

Bingo.Yards per Attempt.

Hate to be dense, but what's the difference between yards per attempt and yards per play?BTW, my guess would be turnover differential.