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What is the Top 10 turnover in IDP like? (1 Viewer)

1 - tackle, .5 - assist, 3 - sack or int, 2 - ff or fr, .1 - yardage on sacks and turnover returns, 2 - blocked fg or punt

As for where the 2005 top ten came from...

DT/DE

3 top ten repeats (Umenyiora, Taylor, Schobel)

2 2004 #11-20 (Mathis, Suggs)

1 2004 #21-30 (Rice)

Burgess, Allen, and Vanden Bosch came out of no where while Strahan was injured in 2004.

LB

3 repeats (Bulluck, Edwards, Fletcher)

3 2004 #11-20 (Peterson, Barnett, Vilma)

1 2004 #21-30 (A. Thomas)

Tatupu was rookies, D. Williams came out of nowhere and Z. Thomas was hurt in 2004.

DB

3 repeats (Wilson, Polamalu, R. Barber)

1 2004 #11-20 (Sharper)

1 2004 #21-30 (Dawkins)

Knight was #38 and Bailey was #53 in 2004 while Gibril Wilson, Law and Tillman were injured in '04.

 
Not only does the to ten very greatly but the depth is greater. Most of the time the players who have top 5 fantasy years have good tackle totals, but also more fumble recoveries, Int and maybe even a TD or two that pushes them above the rest. in one of my league that I look at this off season the difference @ LB between the number 8 and number 26 fantasy player was 16 points or 1 fantasy point per week. of course, you want that 1 point in your favor, but never panic when you don't get the top players where you value them.

Remember in both theory and practice, offensive players don't have to catch passes, rush for yards or score touchdowns, but during the course of the year tackles have to be credited to someone on the defense. Your job is really to figure out who is regularly getting credited for the tackles on a particular team.

 
This is the reason that old IDPers are still good to grab in dynasties IMO - nobody's reliable for more than about two years anyway. Scheme changes and position changes in addition to the stuff offensive players face make them way too unreliable long-term.

 
This is the reason that old IDPers are still good to grab in dynasties IMO - nobody's reliable for more than about two years anyway. Scheme changes and position changes in addition to the stuff offensive players face make them way too unreliable long-term.
And also why trading offense for defense is generally a very bad idea, and trading defense for offense is generally a very good idea ...
 
Interesting thread. I agree with you guys for dynasty.However for redraft, I think the best way to judge whether it's worth waiting tiill round 7 or so is not to compare 2004 and 2005 top 10 finishes, but rather 2005 ADP to 2005 finish.For LBs at least, I would say top 10 ADP is a pretty good predictor of who will finish top 10 LB, maybe more than RB and WR.Here is the ADP 2005 list:1. LB Ray Lewis, Bal/32. LB Keith Bulluck, Ten/103. LB Donnie Edwards, SD/104. LB Brian Urlacher, Chi/45. LB Jonathan Vilma, NYJ/86. LB Derrick Brooks, TB/77. LB Zach Thomas, Mia/48. LB Jamie Sharper, Sea/89. LB Takeo Spikes, Buf/910. LB Mike Peterson, Jac/711. LB Nick Barnett, GB/612. LB London Fletcher, Buf/9

LB3 repeats (Bulluck, Edwards, Fletcher)3 2004 #11-20 (Peterson, Barnett, Vilma)1 2004 #21-30 (A. Thomas)Tatupu was rookies, D. Williams came out of nowhere and Z. Thomas was hurt in 2004.
I am not quite sure where this list comes from. The top 10 based on FBG scoring was: 1 Vilma,Jonathan NYJ 16 128 45 0.5 1 4 1 6 178.5 2 Edwards,Donnie SD 16 114 40 3.0 2 2 0 11 161.0 3 Thomas,Zach MIA 14 107 55 2.0 1 4 1 3 159.5 4 Fletcher,London BUF 16 104 54 4.0 1 1 2 3 146.0 5 Bulluck,Keith TEN 16 102 36 5.0 2 1 1 10 144.0 6 Peterson,Mike JAX 16 95 37 6.0 3 2 1 6 141.5 7 Quarles,Shelton TB 16 103 30 1.0 0 4 1 2 138.0 8 Thurman,Odell CIN 16 68 36 1.5 5 5 0 9 135.0 9 Trotter,Jeremiah PHI 15 102 19 1.0 1 2 0 10 133.5 10 Barnett,Nick GB 16 92 47 2.0 1 1 3 2 131.5So we've got Vilma, Edwards, Z Thomas, Bulluck, Peterson, and Barnett who were all top 10 ADP. On the ADP list, if you are not a guppy you can easily take out J Sharper who was a sucker pick. Sharks were not absolutely not drafting him top 10 (FBG consensus was 18th for him last year), so I can take the liberty of including Barnett in the top 10 ADP. So we're at 7/10. Fletcher was not top 10 ADP but very close. So we're at 7.5/10. The only top 10 ADP that did not give you a stud season were Ray Lewis (injured, although was not performing top 10 before injury), D Brooks (he finished #14... not that horrible), and Spikes (injured). The "hit ratio" for top 10 ADP was not nearly as good for DLs and DBs, which is not that surprising since they rely more on sacks, INTs, FFs, etc. which are not as stable year-to-year than tackles, which LBs depend more on.Now let's look at RBs.ADP 20051. RB LaDainian Tomlinson, SD/102. RB Shaun Alexander, Sea/83. RB Priest Holmes, KC/54. RB Edgerrin James, Ind/85. RB Willis McGahee, Buf/96. RB Deuce McAllister, NO/107. RB Domanick Davis, Hou/38. RB Clinton Portis, Was/39. RB Jamal Lewis, Bal/310. RB Corey Dillon, NE/7LT, S Alex, Edge, and Portis were all fine. Priest and McAllister got injured. D Davis was injured and finished 17th, Dillon was injured and finished 16th, not too bad considering they missed a few games. McGahee finished 13th. J Lewis was a bust. All in all, I think top 10 ADP was less of a predictor of season finish than LB. I am fairly confident that you cannot ignore the injury factor here. RBs are more likely to miss games to injury than LBs.ADP 2005Wide Receivers:1. WR Randy Moss, Oak/52. WR Torry Holt, StL/93. WR Terrell Owens, Phi/64. WR Marvin Harrison, Ind/85. WR Chad Johnson, Cin/106. WR Javon Walker, GB/67. WR Joe Horn, NO/108. WR Andre Johnson, Hou/39. WR Reggie Wayne, Ind/810. WR Hines Ward, Pit/4Holt, Harrison, CJ, and Ward were fine. Moss finished 15th, not too bad, and was playing injured. T.O. is a bone head and we knew that before the beginning of the season. AJ was a total bust. Walker got injured. Horn got injured but was not doing very well before injury anyway. R Wayne finished 21st, not too good but not a bust either. So like RBs, only 4/10 were fine. The other 6 were a mix of injuries, disappointments, and performing a bit below expectations. QBs:ADP 20051. QB Peyton Manning, Ind/82. QB Daunte Culpepper, Min/53. QB Donovan McNabb, Phi/64. QB Marc Bulger, StL/95. QB Trent Green, KC/56. QB Kerry Collins, Oak/57. QB Michael Vick, Atl/88. QB Brett Favre, GB/69. QB Tom Brady, NE/710. QB Matt Hasselbeck, Sea/8P Manning, Green, Collins, Vick, Brady, and Hasselbeck all finished top 10. That's 6/10, very nice. Culpepper got injured, but would not have made top 10. McNabb got injured too and was performing top 10 level before injury. Same for Bulger. Favre finished 13th. So QBs were quite predictable last year. We should not necessarily draw conclusions based only on one year, but this certainly goes with my intuitive feeling that LBs are pretty predictable, as much, if not more than some offensive positions.
 
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Interesting thread. I agree with you guys for dynasty.

However for redraft, I think the best way to judge whether it's worth waiting tiill round 7 or so is not to compare 2004 and 2005 top 10 finishes, but rather 2005 ADP to 2005 finish.

For LBs at least, I would say top 10 ADP is a pretty good predictor of who will finish top 10 LB, maybe more than RB and WR.

Here is the ADP 2005 list:

1. LB Ray Lewis, Bal/3

2. LB Keith Bulluck, Ten/10

3. LB Donnie Edwards, SD/10

4. LB Brian Urlacher, Chi/4

5. LB Jonathan Vilma, NYJ/8

6. LB Derrick Brooks, TB/7

7. LB Zach Thomas, Mia/4

8. LB Jamie Sharper, Sea/8

9. LB Takeo Spikes, Buf/9

10. LB Mike Peterson, Jac/7

11. LB Nick Barnett, GB/6

12. LB London Fletcher, Buf/9

LB

3 repeats (Bulluck, Edwards, Fletcher)

3 2004 #11-20 (Peterson, Barnett, Vilma)

1 2004 #21-30 (A. Thomas)

Tatupu was rookies, D. Williams came out of nowhere and Z. Thomas was hurt in 2004.
I am not quite sure where this list comes from. The top 10 based on FBG scoring was:1 Vilma,Jonathan NYJ 16 128 45 0.5 1 4 1 6 178.5

2 Edwards,Donnie SD 16 114 40 3.0 2 2 0 11 161.0

3 Thomas,Zach MIA 14 107 55 2.0 1 4 1 3 159.5

4 Fletcher,London BUF 16 104 54 4.0 1 1 2 3 146.0

5 Bulluck,Keith TEN 16 102 36 5.0 2 1 1 10 144.0

6 Peterson,Mike JAX 16 95 37 6.0 3 2 1 6 141.5

7 Quarles,Shelton TB 16 103 30 1.0 0 4 1 2 138.0

8 Thurman,Odell CIN 16 68 36 1.5 5 5 0 9 135.0

9 Trotter,Jeremiah PHI 15 102 19 1.0 1 2 0 10 133.5

10 Barnett,Nick GB 16 92 47 2.0 1 1 3 2 131.5

So we've got Vilma, Edwards, Z Thomas, Bulluck, Peterson, and Barnett who were all top 10 ADP. On the ADP list, if you are not a guppy you can easily take out J Sharper who was a sucker pick. Sharks were not absolutely not drafting him top 10 (FBG consensus was 18th for him last year), so I can take the liberty of including Barnett in the top 10 ADP. So we're at 7/10. Fletcher was not top 10 ADP but very close. So we're at 7.5/10.

The only top 10 ADP that did not give you a stud season were Ray Lewis (injured, although was not performing top 10 before injury), D Brooks (he finished #14... not that horrible), and Spikes (injured).

The "hit ratio" for top 10 ADP was not nearly as good for DLs and DBs, which is not that surprising since they rely more on sacks, INTs, FFs, etc. which are not as stable year-to-year than tackles, which LBs depend more on.

Now let's look at RBs.

ADP 2005

1. RB LaDainian Tomlinson, SD/10

2. RB Shaun Alexander, Sea/8

3. RB Priest Holmes, KC/5

4. RB Edgerrin James, Ind/8

5. RB Willis McGahee, Buf/9

6. RB Deuce McAllister, NO/10

7. RB Domanick Davis, Hou/3

8. RB Clinton Portis, Was/3

9. RB Jamal Lewis, Bal/3

10. RB Corey Dillon, NE/7

LT, S Alex, Edge, and Portis were all fine. Priest and McAllister got injured. D Davis was injured and finished 17th, Dillon was injured and finished 16th, not too bad considering they missed a few games. McGahee finished 13th. J Lewis was a bust. All in all, I think top 10 ADP was less of a predictor of season finish than LB. I am fairly confident that you cannot ignore the injury factor here. RBs are more likely to miss games to injury than LBs.

ADP 2005

Wide Receivers:

1. WR Randy Moss, Oak/5

2. WR Torry Holt, StL/9

3. WR Terrell Owens, Phi/6

4. WR Marvin Harrison, Ind/8

5. WR Chad Johnson, Cin/10

6. WR Javon Walker, GB/6

7. WR Joe Horn, NO/10

8. WR Andre Johnson, Hou/3

9. WR Reggie Wayne, Ind/8

10. WR Hines Ward, Pit/4

Holt, Harrison, CJ, and Ward were fine. Moss finished 15th, not too bad, and was playing injured. T.O. is a bone head and we knew that before the beginning of the season. AJ was a total bust. Walker got injured. Horn got injured but was not doing very well before injury anyway. R Wayne finished 21st, not too good but not a bust either. So like RBs, only 4/10 were fine. The other 6 were a mix of injuries, disappointments, and performing a bit below expectations.

QBs:

ADP 2005

1. QB Peyton Manning, Ind/8

2. QB Daunte Culpepper, Min/5

3. QB Donovan McNabb, Phi/6

4. QB Marc Bulger, StL/9

5. QB Trent Green, KC/5

6. QB Kerry Collins, Oak/5

7. QB Michael Vick, Atl/8

8. QB Brett Favre, GB/6

9. QB Tom Brady, NE/7

10. QB Matt Hasselbeck, Sea/8

P Manning, Green, Collins, Vick, Brady, and Hasselbeck all finished top 10. That's 6/10, very nice. Culpepper got injured, but would not have made top 10. McNabb got injured too and was performing top 10 level before injury. Same for Bulger. Favre finished 13th. So QBs were quite predictable last year.

We should not necessarily draw conclusions based only on one year, but this certainly goes with my intuitive feeling that LBs are pretty predictable, as much, if not more than some offensive positions.
Very good points. The top ten I used was from my league in which defensive players receive points for sack yardage and turnover return yardage which inflates the big play effect for all IDP's and consequently makes projecting the top IDP's much more difficult.As to the predictability of IDP top ten preformances in FBG scoring redraft leagues, I agree that LB's are just as easily predicted if not more so than offensive positions. Players like Vilma and Bulluck should be taken where their worth/EDP* merits it. In FBG scoring, Adrian Wilson and Ronde Barber are almost certain to repeat top ten perfomances at defensive back. So there are top notch IDP's that merit picks higher in the draft.

EDP= Expected Draft Position for your league. ADP is near worthless in IDP leagues with scoring rules that vary tremendously.

Edited to say to Islander: I don't mean that you were wrong is using ADP after the fact. That is a very important aspect of determining the predicability of IDP's. I mean that going into a draft that ADP from prior drafts can be completely useless for most IDP leagues unless there are all Zealots or something similar.

 
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Very good points.  The top ten I used was from my league in which defensive players receive points for sack yardage and turnover return yardage which inflates the big play effect for all IDP's and consequently makes projecting the top IDP's much more difficult.

As to the predictability of IDP top ten preformances in FBG scoring redraft leagues, I agree that LB's are just as easily predicted if not more so than offensive positions.  Players like Vilma and Bulluck should be taken where their worth/EDP* merits it.  In FBG scoring, Adrian Wilson and Ronde Barber are almost certain to repeat top ten perfomances at defensive back.  So there are top notch IDP's that merit picks higher in the draft.

EDP= Expected Draft Position for your league.  ADP is near worthless in IDP leagues with scoring rules that vary tremendously.

Edited to say to Islander: I don't mean that you were wrong is using ADP after the fact.  That is a very important aspect of determining the predicability of IDP's.  I mean that going into a draft that ADP from prior drafts can be completely useless for most IDP leagues unless there are all Zealots or something similar.
I guess I should specify that in my view, ADP can be used for two purposes:1. See in which order players are taken for each position (LB1, LB2, LB3, etc.)

2. See in which round players are taken (4.5, 7.12, etc.)

For #1, differences in scoring rules have an impact, but not nearly as much as for #2 (see below). Vilma and Bulluck are near the top in almost every league. Some players will be a little more or less valuable in some leagues depending if they rely more on tackles or big plays for their scoring.

For #2, this varies incredibly from league to league. I totally agree that ADPs are useless for this.

In my argument, I was thinking in terms of #1 to determine whether a top 10 LB is more or less likely to end up top 10. However, you are correct that if you decide to draft a LB "early", the definition of "early" must be determined for each of your leagues. That's where making up an EDP becomes useful. In some leagues, early means 3rd round... in others it's 8th round.

 
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Islanders, you are correct that ADP is useful as far as order of a particular IDP position in most cases. What I was referring to is what you mentioned in the end. When do the IDP's start going in your league? As early as the 3rd round or as late as the 8th. Also, is there a run on stud LB's and then a few round wait for 2nd tier LB and 1st tier DB or DL.

 
the thing to always remember is there is 8 D guys per team that most owners feel can contribute. For O there is 6 per team. Most leagues make you start 11 D guys and usually 8 O guys. Just many more D guys to choose from in any league. In some of mine we start 9 to 11 O guys which makes them much more valuable in the end

 

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