What is Your Perfect Draft plan? (1 Viewer)

[Black]

I just read the FBG Magazine 'the Perfect Draft', and enjoyed it, but don't 100% agree. There are some points that I really enjoy reading from experts, since they reinforce what I have learned.

What advice do you go by?

Here's what I *think* I do...

1. I definitely have a DND (do not draft) list, and stick to that, regardless if the guy keeps dropping.

2. I like base my selections on my Tiers and perceived Average Draft Position. This is how I try to get value. If I think a guy will slide (and I have others in the Tier that should be there next round), I'll wait on him.

I think that having some value measures (delta between actual value and ADP) is critical, because everyone in a draft has the same chance to get the same team. It seems the only difference in the end is figuring out what you can wait on, whether that is a position (Kicker, DEF, TE, QB) or a specific player in a specific round.

3. Sleepers: I like to think that Sleepers inform and drive my draft. If there are a bunch of guys that I really like that are going to go late, I can decide to wait on their peers. If I have a bunch of sleeper WRs I love, I won't load up early on WR. To me, that's a huge factor year to year. Last year I really liked DeAngelo, Berrian, and P. Thomas, and grabbed them all in rounds 6, 8, and 12 I think. I also grabbed some others that didn't work out, but having specific targets outside the first few rounds and knowing how long you can wait in them is critical.

4. Ignoring a position: I am not sure I agree with the FBG Perfect Draft article when it states 'you should always wait on a QB'...'don't be the guy to draft Peyton, Brady, Brees in rounds 1-2.' I think you can take one of those guys, then not have to draft a backup until round 13-14. There's value in that.

5. DEF and Kicker. I love the DST by Committee stuff and always wait until near the very end to grab a DEF. Kicker is always the last round if it's a 16 round or so. I would, however, grab a Pittsburgh or someone around round 11/12 if I know the rest of my sleepers/targets will still be there in round 14, so again, very much driven by my targets/sleepers and their expected ADP.

6. BYE weeks...only look in terms of Backups. Also, if I only have one QB or TE (depending), I will try to be sure my QB, TE, K, DEF don't all have the same BYE week, since I won't be able to grab a one week fill-in with a shallow bench.

 

[The Future Champs]

I just read the FBG Magazine 'the Perfect Draft', and enjoyed it, but don't 100% agree. There are some points that I really enjoy reading from experts, since they reinforce what I have learned.

What advice do you go by?

Here's what I *think* I do...

1. I definitely have a DND (do not draft) list, and stick to that, regardless if the guy keeps dropping.

2. I like base my selections on my Tiers and perceived Average Draft Position. This is how I try to get value. If I think a guy will slide (and I have others in the Tier that should be there next round), I'll wait on him.

I think that having some value measures (delta between actual value and ADP) is critical, because everyone in a draft has the same chance to get the same team. It seems the only difference in the end is figuring out what you can wait on, whether that is a position (Kicker, DEF, TE, QB) or a specific player in a specific round.

3. Sleepers: I like to think that Sleepers inform and drive my draft. If there are a bunch of guys that I really like that are going to go late, I can decide to wait on their peers. If I have a bunch of sleeper WRs I love, I won't load up early on WR. To me, that's a huge factor year to year. Last year I really liked DeAngelo, Berrian, and P. Thomas, and grabbed them all in rounds 6, 8, and 12 I think. I also grabbed some others that didn't work out, but having specific targets outside the first few rounds and knowing how long you can wait in them is critical.

4. Ignoring a position: I am not sure I agree with the FBG Perfect Draft article when it states 'you should always wait on a QB'...'don't be the guy to draft Peyton, Brady, Brees in rounds 1-2.' I think you can take one of those guys, then not have to draft a backup until round 13-14. There's value in that.

5. DEF and Kicker. I love the DST by Committee stuff and always wait until near the very end to grab a DEF. Kicker is always the last round if it's a 16 round or so. I would, however, grab a Pittsburgh or someone around round 11/12 if I know the rest of my sleepers/targets will still be there in round 14, so again, very much driven by my targets/sleepers and their expected ADP.

6. BYE weeks...only look in terms of Backups. Also, if I only have one QB or TE (depending), I will try to be sure my QB, TE, K, DEF don't all have the same BYE week, since I won't be able to grab a one week fill-in with a shallow bench.

I like to grab a kicker with a late bye week. Then around week 6 I grab a good kicker who's been dropped to the WW due to a bye week, after that K is past his bye, and drop my other K at the same time. Usually you can get that K by making them your top priority on the WW for the week. That eliminates the need for a bench spot for that fill-in. (Works with DST as well, if you've got an average D.)s

 

[CaptainHook]

perfect draft for this year? (10 team)

1wr

2wr

3wr

4witten

5 and 6: kevin smith/ryan grant/pierre thomas/knowshon/derrick ward/t jones/mcfadden/beanie/j lewis w/ the next 2 picks

7: donald brown

orton and edwards will be my qb's and the rest of my picks will just be BPA

if you want more abstract i look at the tiers and compare the difference between them. dont really think you can do an especially huge amount of player evaluation beyond putting them in a high variable range.

tier 1 to tier 4 in WR is a massive drop this year. tier 1 to tier 3 rb not so much. witten tier to tier 2 is a humongous drop.

 

[Black]

perfect draft for this year? (10 team)1wr2wr3wr4witten5 and 6: kevin smith/ryan grant/pierre thomas/knowshon/derrick ward/t jones/mcfadden/beanie/j lewis w/ the next 2 picks7: donald brownorton and edwards will be my qb's and the rest of my picks will just be BPAif you want more abstract i look at the tiers and compare the difference between them. dont really think you can do an especially huge amount of player evaluation beyond putting them in a high variable range. tier 1 to tier 4 in WR is a massive drop this year. tier 1 to tier 3 rb not so much. witten tier to tier 2 is a humongous drop.

Do you like Witten (4th rd) that much more (esp relative to ADP) than Gates (5th), DClark/G.Olsen (7th)?I am comfortable waiting on QB, unless Rivers/Rogers falls to me in the 5th.I like the mid-tier RBs, most of whom are serviceable starters that can give you 100 yards /TD weekly, esp based on matchups.

 

[MAC_32]

perfect draft for this year? (10 team)1wr2wr3wr4witten5 and 6: kevin smith/ryan grant/pierre thomas/knowshon/derrick ward/t jones/mcfadden/beanie/j lewis w/ the next 2 picks7: donald brownorton and edwards will be my qb's and the rest of my picks will just be BPAif you want more abstract i look at the tiers and compare the difference between them. dont really think you can do an especially huge amount of player evaluation beyond putting them in a high variable range. tier 1 to tier 4 in WR is a massive drop this year. tier 1 to tier 3 rb not so much. witten tier to tier 2 is a humongous drop.

If you can get guys like Kevin Smith, Pierre Thomas, Knowshon, etc. that late, ok, but what sort of league has them falling that far?I mean, I plan to do like I did last year in my home leagues by drafting a RB round 1 then load up on stud WR's, QB's, and TE's before picking the remains at RB but those are local leagues, not the greatest of challenges. In more competitive leagues I don't see (m)any of those guys lasting into round 5.

 

[ChrisCooleyFan]

I'm in a TD only league, I have always went Rb 1st 2 picks, this year I'm trying 2 Wr 1st. Then I'll go from there. I like Wells later in the Draft as a plunge guy for there Cards, like Hightower was his rookie year.

 

[FUBAR]

I just draft good players

Seriously, I'm in round 7 of an initial dynasty 16 team draft and I've tried to get "core players" regardless of position.

So far, I've drafted:

1.9. Nashville Sounds - Chris Johnson - RB - TEN

2.8. Nashville Sounds - Greg Jennings - WR - GB

3.9. Nashville Sounds - Brandon Marshall - WR - DEN

4.8. Nashville Sounds - Carson Palmer - QB - CIN

5.9. Nashville Sounds - Jon Beason - LB - CAR

5.15. Nashville Sound (Via Al Davis' Zombies) - Barrett Ruud - LB - TB

7.9. Nashville Sounds - Mario Williams - DL - HOU

(I acquired the 5.15 and 9.15 for 6.08 and 8.08 in order to draft Ruud)

IMO, in a dynasty draft it's more important to land as many high quality players to build around as you can, and not worry about positions even if that means losing out on some depth at the important positions. Short term I'm probably worse off, long term I think I'm good. You'll notice, no rookies, but only Palmer is over 26. In short, I think a stud will remain a stud long after a decent player in a good situation has lost his gig.

In a redraft, "core players" aren't as important, but I still leave a couple holes at RB or WR to fill studs at other positions.

 

[The High Priest]

Old way I drafted....rd 1 RB...rd 2 RB.....rd 3 WR = a few champ runs but no ring(s)

Last 2 yrs ........rd 1 WR....rd 2 WR ...rd 3 WR/RB.= 2 RINGS.

I feel its easier to find a rbs later rounds or in FA pool that I can load up on. I seem to be able to pick right with a RB then with a WR when I need to jugle them.

 

[awesomeness]

Round 1: WR, Round 2: WR, Round 3: Moreno, Round 4: Pierre Thomas = Championship.

 

[ggggh7]

My Draft Plan . 6.16.09 qb 2rb 3wr te k def 12 team ppr

1. Have a do not draft list.

2. R. Moss

3. do not draft Manning.Brees.Brady. (avoiding high ranked qb)

The draft position to draft a high ranked qb is needed to target rb position.

4. round one will be a battle between an avalible rb or R.Moss as camp.preseason progress.

5. Using the assumption that somewhere around 24 rbs will be drafted in the first 3 rounds.

currently 20 might be more accurate number. ?

Then the process begins.

1. Charting rbs .

2. Developing a comittee for rb wr qb positions. Based on Schedule. and Cheetsheet rankings(Ave draft pos)

(i use cheetsheet rankings as adp, as most drafters use cheetsheets from sites. I find this much more accurate the mock draft adp)

currently no specific names. As there is no surprises in Fantasy football. I am thinking the same as most

as it is early .

qb. GB PHI JAX SEA HOU CIN KC DEN

rb. at least 3 of the top 40.

Favorite early

Knowshon Moreno

Pierre Thomas

Felix Jones

Ray Rice

Target at least 2 of my early list of shot in dark rbs

Ahmad Bradshaw

Bernard Scott

Chester Taylor

Correll Buckhalter

Fred Jackson

Javon Ringer

Jerious Norwood (KR)

Jerome Harrison

Ladell Betts

Laurence Maroney (inj)

LeSean McCoy

Michael Bush

Rashard Mendenhall (inj)

Shonn Greene

T.J. Duckett (SD)

The jets rb position is up in air to me . Thus I have Greene on the list. of course if he looks good preseason. .. blah blah blah.

WR not much work done on wr thus far.

I do think Moss will be good.. haha.. duh.

I look for a (stud) wr for the wr1 spot on my roster

I will look for wr that will start on my roster as little as 2 wks. for my 2nd and 3rd wr

Random. Jennings. Coles. Hester.(bears wrs) . as always the good qbs 2nd or 3rd wrs that drop.

3. Develop a SOS or matchup for my whole roster.

While most will see this a useless. I like to plan for late season matchups. including domes for passing. and kicking.

4. Develop a Def matchup SOS. finding a couple of undervalued def for late rounds.

5.pick a kicker out of a hat. As mentioned i mostly draft one kicker or no kicker if waviers are allowed before wk 1

Good stuff in the thread so far.

 

[Tanner9919]

I just read the FBG Magazine 'the Perfect Draft', and enjoyed it, but don't 100% agree. There are some points that I really enjoy reading from experts, since they reinforce what I have learned. What advice do you go by? Here's what I *think* I do...1. I definitely have a DND (do not draft) list, and stick to that, regardless if the guy keeps dropping.2. I like base my selections on my Tiers and perceived Average Draft Position. This is how I try to get value. If I think a guy will slide (and I have others in the Tier that should be there next round), I'll wait on him.I think that having some value measures (delta between actual value and ADP) is critical, because everyone in a draft has the same chance to get the same team. It seems the only difference in the end is figuring out what you can wait on, whether that is a position (Kicker, DEF, TE, QB) or a specific player in a specific round.3. Sleepers: I like to think that Sleepers inform and drive my draft. If there are a bunch of guys that I really like that are going to go late, I can decide to wait on their peers. If I have a bunch of sleeper WRs I love, I won't load up early on WR. To me, that's a huge factor year to year. Last year I really liked DeAngelo, Berrian, and P. Thomas, and grabbed them all in rounds 6, 8, and 12 I think. I also grabbed some others that didn't work out, but having specific targets outside the first few rounds and knowing how long you can wait in them is critical. 4. Ignoring a position: I am not sure I agree with the FBG Perfect Draft article when it states 'you should always wait on a QB'...'don't be the guy to draft Peyton, Brady, Brees in rounds 1-2.' I think you can take one of those guys, then not have to draft a backup until round 13-14. There's value in that. 5. DEF and Kicker. I love the DST by Committee stuff and always wait until near the very end to grab a DEF. Kicker is always the last round if it's a 16 round or so. I would, however, grab a Pittsburgh or someone around round 11/12 if I know the rest of my sleepers/targets will still be there in round 14, so again, very much driven by my targets/sleepers and their expected ADP.6. BYE weeks...only look in terms of Backups. Also, if I only have one QB or TE (depending), I will try to be sure my QB, TE, K, DEF don't all have the same BYE week, since I won't be able to grab a one week fill-in with a shallow bench.

I don't think there is such a thing as a 'Sleeper' anymore, everyone reads all the magazines, the websites, the blogs, we ALL know who to target in the later rounds...a Sleeper to you might be a priority to someone else...you might think P. Thomas is a sleeper, but the guy next to you thinks he's a valuable commodity, and drafts him 3 rounds higher than where you thought he'd go..I never draft a kicker until the final two rounds..I like to rank players based on the final 5-6 games of the previous season, if a guy is slumping, that's usually a trend.if he's performing well,that's usually a trend...each is likely to carry over to the following season..depending on your scoring system , FBG's saying 'don't be the guy to draft Brady, Manning, Brees in rounds 1-2' is kind of foolish if you ask me...of the three, Brees is the one guy who is most likely to keep pumping out impressive stats because of the lack of a proven workhorse RB in N.O., and because of the lousy defense they will need to keep scoring pts...depending on your scoring system, you cannot do any better than Brees in round 1..we score 1 pt for every 40 yards passing, 1pt every 2 comps, and TDs are scored based on yardages ( 3pts-6pts)Brees scored 421 pts last season, while the #1 RB, Turner, scored just 239 pts..( RB's get 1 pt per 10 yards rush, distance of TDs, rec yards ( non-PPR for RB). drafting a QB first, in our league, is a no-brainer... draft a guy like Witten early, esp this season when he'll be the focal pt of the 'Boys passing offense , esp now without T.O.TE's are a hot commodity..Gates is slipping, and the rest is a hodge-podge of also-rans..Witten is the real deal. draft defenses somewhat early, because a top 5 defense continually produces at a high level,and, unlike a prized RB or QB, you cannot injure a defense..in that regard, a defense like the Ravens' or Steelers is worth a lot.. definitely have a DND list..

 

[doomsdaydoc]

it really all depends on the tendencies of your league. You may think you can go wr/wr/wr and get guys like Pierre Thomas and Kevin Smith yet. The truth is that there are league where those 2 backs can be late second/early third round picks and there may not be ANY starting RBs left after round 3. There is no blanket strategy that fits every league.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

may be in the minority but I will probably be returning to the RB/RB strategy this year....with all the two back teams this year, I may really try to lock down two guys that will not be splitting carries and then build from there.....

 

[Cabby]

In redraft this year my strategy for the first few rounds will depend on where I draft. Early pick in the draft I will go RB rd 1, WR, WR, RB, then value. Try to get Schaub as my QB late. If I have a late round 1 pick I will go WR, WR, RB, RB likely.

What are people's strategy for auction leagues? I am in my second year of an auction keeper draft. I have descent keepers in Rodgers($3), Calvin Johnson($20), Moss($40), and Chris Johnson($10 rookie keeper).

Auctions are all about value as I am starting to learn, I really prefer them to standard drafts now. Who are some players this year that people are targeting for value?(either in standard or auction drafts) I am thinking Larry Johnson, Ronnie Brown, Ochocinco, Garrard, Holt, Housh, etc. Other thoughts?