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What kind of deal did Travis Henry get? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter sholditch
- Start date
Nookular Power
Footballguy
From the numbers above, I wouldn't count on him being The Man in Denver for more than 2 years. If he's just crazy good those 2 years, and Denver's got other needs to fill, maybe he sticks for the 3rd year as well.
zadok
Footballguy
Who knows? As far as the salary cap is concerned, his deal looks very friendly for 3 years. If he stays healthy and away from the weed, I really like his dynasty prospects for the next 2-3 years.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
1.4 seems like a very friendly deal for a starting RB in 2009. If his production starts dropping off, maybe not, but in 3 years that could still be a steal.
pinda
Footballguy
As of mid October, he's out of the NFL substance abuse program. He'll be back down to not having any offences at all against him since he's been clean for a while.
Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
He might make it 3 years, but as far as counting on a certaion amount of time, I would count on him being viable for 2 years.
Footballhead
WWPRD?
Travis is a tough guy. But as I recall, he's been suspended for 4 games over substance abuse in Tenn. If that happnes again...that'a year suspension...no?
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
He'll turn 29 this year (October) so I don't see age becoming a factor...the contract isn't overly expensive so unless he starts demanding a massive raise I it looks like he'll be the Denver rb for the rest of his meaningful career.
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
Come October he's out of the program...he can't have any relapses before that time.
ChampBailey24
Footballguy
He received 12M in guaranteed money. There is no way Denver cuts Henry at the end of the current season because Henry would then have won 12.6M for a year. Henry is in Denver for AT LEAST 2 years and will remain there as long as he is productive.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Denver likes change? Why do you say that? They didn't change when they had Terrell Davis. They didn't try to change when they had Gary and Anderson, but they got hurt. They drafted Portis, and he looked great, but they had a chance to trade him for Champ Bailey and get a second rounder on top of it. Looking back, wouldn't you make that trade ten times out of ten? Droughns wanted starter money and he left and got it. Bell wanted to start, and he sucked. This is the first time I can really remember that they've been a buyer in the free agent running back market, and they went out and got the guy they wanted. To me, it seems like they DON'T like change, and finally decided to fill the spot with a guy who should last a couple years.
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
Don't buy into the myth that Shannahan likes to switch his rb's to confuse us fantasy players. When he finds a guy that carry the load he sticks with him. Henry has carried the load for two other teams so it's not like he's unproven.
EBF
Footballguy
The reason they've been so unstable is because they've had mediocre talent. Gary, Droughns, Bell, and Bell are below average NFL running backs. Now that they have a quality back, they'll stick with him just like they did with Portis and Davis. Henry should have a strong 2007 and 2008. After that, he'll be nearing the age where most RBs experience a decline.
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
Your sig says it all.Ask yourself this-why did Denver switch rb's? Was it because they simply couldn't help themselves and they like to shake things up every once in awhile? Variety is the spice of life? Or was it due to the fact they found a guy, tried him in the offense and realized he wasn't a good fit? If it ain't broke don't fix it-but it's been broken the past several years-THAT is why they've changed their rb. Olandis Gary, Rueben Droughns and Tatum Bell were not much above average. Do you care to give examples to back up your claim? I realize it's a bit shocking to suddenly realize you've been lied to about the Denver backfield all these years but listen to logic and reasoning.
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
They didn't stick with Portis because he wanted a major pay increase and they were able to get THE greatest cornerback playing today. I also believe they got a second round pick.
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
Let's look at it this way-follow the money! What team is going to pay ANY running back 12 million dollars for one season? There is always the risk of a suspension/injury but there are some risks with every player. Providing he stays healthy he will be their rb for at least two seasons. Each year, the starting Denver rb is an absolute lock for top ten production.
Sopranos
Footballguy
We wont agree.. And dont have to. The OP asked about trading for him in a dynasty. I wouldnt advise it. The price will be high and IMO he isnt worth it. In a dynasty 2 years isnt worth the cost you will pay.. As for my sig. You have been here one more day than me. And if you think the pool has more knowledge than the old FFtoday forum from pre06 season then you have been mislead. It was a great place before a few people left because of Mike.. I came here because its the best thing left.
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
The sig statement wasn't cool, I apologize. I was quite familiar with the old fftoday and it was a quality site. I guess it all depends what it would cost to acquire him. I think a lot of owners are fearful Shannahan will switch him out at the slightest hint of a flaw. As far as dynasty value, I think it's rather difficult to start predicting players more than a couple years down the line. To each their own.
EBF
Footballguy
Anderson, Droughns, Gary, Bell, and Bell are all backup caliber NFL RBs. The reason Denver didn't stick with any of them is because none of them were very good. Henry is definitely better than all of those guys.
Sopranos
Footballguy
Its Cool. I still feel M Bell will get his for some reason. In a dyansty 28 year old RB's are a sell high. Unless your loaded. I hope Henry does well. I think he will but longterm i dont trust the Rat. There are too many other options than to Gamble with him.
SSOG
Moderator
Henry'll probably stick for at least three seasons. Remember, if they cut him after 2 years, they essentially paid him 13.3 million for two years ($6.65 per season), whereas if they cut him after 3 years, they essentially paid him 14.7 million for 3 years ($4.9 per season). Even 4 the fourth year is very palatable, although there's a question of how effective he'll be, since he'll be pretty long in the tooth at that point. If my math is right, there should also be $3 million in random bonuses and guarantees hidden somewhere in their (iirc, it was a 5-year, $24 million contract, and his $12 million guaranteed plus those 5 salaries only add up to $21 million).Remember, too, that we can't compare Henry's contracts to any other contracts signed before last offseason. Why? The unprecedented rise in the salary cap has thrown contracts all out of whack. If you're making $10 million a year under an $80 million cap, that's 12.5% of the salary cap. If you have the same contract under a $100 million cap, that's only 10%. Contracts can be 25% larger than they were as recently as two seasons ago and still be completely comparable. This is why it seems like every player who hits the open market recently quickly becomes the highest paid player at his position in NFL history. Judged through that prism, Denver spending $4 million in salary on a very acceptable expense.One other thing to remember is that if Denver cuts Henry, his bonus gets accelerated. I don't know if his guarantees were in the form of a signing bonus or a roster bonus, but in a worst-case scenario, if Denver cuts Henry at the end of this season, he's counting $9.6 million against the cap (compared to a $700,000 salary, resulting in a net loss of almost $9 million in cap space). If they cut him after two years, the worst-case-scenario is $7.2 million against the cap (or $3.6 for two years if they cut him after June 1st). In the worst case scenario, cutting him after his third season and spreading the cap hit over two years wouldn't even offer cap relief- they'd owe $2.4 in accelerated bonuses, and save $2.4 in salary. As a result, it's a near-certainty that Henry will be around for at least three years, and very likely four.
on both counts. When in doubt, follow the money... and no Denver RB under Shanahan has been a workhorse and produced on pace for a fantasy finish lower than 7th.
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
I've always thought it difficult to project more than a couple seasons down the line but I understand the hesitation. Be sure to check out Cecil Lammey's camp reports on the Broncos. He does a great job with that-in fact, I'm not sure many of us would be shocked if M. Bell lost the backup job to Cobbs. IMO it's still too early but they are BOTH worth keeping an eye on...
