I always think that people are too quick to jump into projections for the upcoming season when they haven't spent enough time looking back at the previous year and revisting their projections to see where they were right and wrong, and why (to the extent that's possible). In doing that, hopefully you pick up a few lessons that will help you analyze moving forward.I don't mean lessons such as "this guy sucks" or "this guy's really good." I'm talking more about philosophies -- things you observed throughout the season and looking back at it that you'll be taking forward with you this year.
Couple takeaways for me:
1) Don't underestimate the impact that the quality of a QB has on his WR's
* I know, doesn't sound earth-shattering, but it's always tempting to look beyond a WR's quarter back and take the "Well, he has to throw someone the ball" attitude. And, there are cases where that's true, but look at the Top 25 WR's and only 5 of them (AJ Green, Vincent Jackson, Mike Williams, Cecil Shorts, Stevie Johnson) were catching passes from QB's who would commonly be considered below average (not based on FBG QB rankings, per se). Yes, you can argue about guys like Cutler and Schaub, but they've been top tier QB's before. This impact was noticeable not only in the number of WR's in the Top 25 who caught balls from good QB's but also in how it affected guys who didn't have a strong QB throwing to them. This is subjective, but here are the QB's I'm counting as "below average" (in no order) and where their highest ranking WR finished:
Michael Vick: Jeremy Maclin (27)
Carson Palmer: Denarius Moore (33)
Josh Freeman: Vincent Jackson (6)
Kolb/Skelton/Lindley: Larry Fitzgerald (42)
Matt Cassell/Brady Quinn: Dwayne Bowe (45)
Ryan Fitzpatrick: Stevie Johnson (20)
Jake Locker/Matt Hasselbeck: Nate Washington (48)
Sam Bradford: Brandon Gibson (44)
Mark Sanchez: Jeremy Kerley (46)
Andy Dalton: AJ Green (4)
Christian Ponder: Percy Harvin (43) -- certainly would have been higher if he wasn't injured
Ryan Tannehill: Brian Hartline (35)
Blaine Gabbert/Chad Henne: Cecil Shorts (22)
Brandon Weeden: Josh Gordon (37)
You could also include Philip Rivers, who has shown himself capable of working with a top tier WR, but has fallen off drastically. His top WR was Malcolm Floyd who finished at 36.
This impact was perhaps most dramatic in what it did to Larry Fitzgerald and Dwayne Bowe, two WR's with elte talent, but it can also be seen in the fact that it limited the upside of popular preseason sleepers Denarius Moore & Darrius Heyward-Bey, and stifled the "comeback" of a guy like DeSean Jackson. Conversely, having a top QB vaulted players like Michael Crabtree, Reggie Wayne, James Jones, Randall Cobb, Lance Moore, and TY Hilton into the Top 25.
2) Don't ignore a player's injury history
This is a tough one for me, because I've always had the opinion that any player can get injured on any play and I've typically found value in taking a chance on a player who was slipping because of the "injury-prone" label. However, I was one of the idiots who took Darren McFadden in the 1st round last season. Should I have honestly been surprised that he got hurt? Ryan Mathews, Willis McGahee, and DeMarco Murray are other cases of guys whose injuries shouldn't have surprised anyone. Again, this is a tricky one, because you'll have a guy like Adrian Peterson who comes along and breaks every rule, but, in a certain sense, he also highlights the fact that he's superhuman and truly an exception to the rule, as others coming back from injury (Britt, Ryan Williams, Mendenhall et al) had a much more difficult time.
What do these points mean for 2013? Well, for me, they mean that I'm going to be skeptical of WR's who are catching passes from below-average QB's, or that they'll either need to be truly talented enough to overcome their QB (AJ Green) or come at a discount. I'll also be looking even more closely at 2nd and 3rd WR's on teams with great QB's as sleepers. As for the injury question, the guys on the list above would really have to slip for me to take a chance on again. I refuse to reach for a guy who hasn't shown an ability to stay healthy or has a troubling injury history).
Would love to get feedback and hear some of the things you learned last year and how you'll use them as you start to evaluate talent for 2013.
Couple takeaways for me:
1) Don't underestimate the impact that the quality of a QB has on his WR's
* I know, doesn't sound earth-shattering, but it's always tempting to look beyond a WR's quarter back and take the "Well, he has to throw someone the ball" attitude. And, there are cases where that's true, but look at the Top 25 WR's and only 5 of them (AJ Green, Vincent Jackson, Mike Williams, Cecil Shorts, Stevie Johnson) were catching passes from QB's who would commonly be considered below average (not based on FBG QB rankings, per se). Yes, you can argue about guys like Cutler and Schaub, but they've been top tier QB's before. This impact was noticeable not only in the number of WR's in the Top 25 who caught balls from good QB's but also in how it affected guys who didn't have a strong QB throwing to them. This is subjective, but here are the QB's I'm counting as "below average" (in no order) and where their highest ranking WR finished:
Michael Vick: Jeremy Maclin (27)
Carson Palmer: Denarius Moore (33)
Josh Freeman: Vincent Jackson (6)
Kolb/Skelton/Lindley: Larry Fitzgerald (42)
Matt Cassell/Brady Quinn: Dwayne Bowe (45)
Ryan Fitzpatrick: Stevie Johnson (20)
Jake Locker/Matt Hasselbeck: Nate Washington (48)
Sam Bradford: Brandon Gibson (44)
Mark Sanchez: Jeremy Kerley (46)
Andy Dalton: AJ Green (4)
Christian Ponder: Percy Harvin (43) -- certainly would have been higher if he wasn't injured
Ryan Tannehill: Brian Hartline (35)
Blaine Gabbert/Chad Henne: Cecil Shorts (22)
Brandon Weeden: Josh Gordon (37)
You could also include Philip Rivers, who has shown himself capable of working with a top tier WR, but has fallen off drastically. His top WR was Malcolm Floyd who finished at 36.
This impact was perhaps most dramatic in what it did to Larry Fitzgerald and Dwayne Bowe, two WR's with elte talent, but it can also be seen in the fact that it limited the upside of popular preseason sleepers Denarius Moore & Darrius Heyward-Bey, and stifled the "comeback" of a guy like DeSean Jackson. Conversely, having a top QB vaulted players like Michael Crabtree, Reggie Wayne, James Jones, Randall Cobb, Lance Moore, and TY Hilton into the Top 25.
2) Don't ignore a player's injury history
This is a tough one for me, because I've always had the opinion that any player can get injured on any play and I've typically found value in taking a chance on a player who was slipping because of the "injury-prone" label. However, I was one of the idiots who took Darren McFadden in the 1st round last season. Should I have honestly been surprised that he got hurt? Ryan Mathews, Willis McGahee, and DeMarco Murray are other cases of guys whose injuries shouldn't have surprised anyone. Again, this is a tricky one, because you'll have a guy like Adrian Peterson who comes along and breaks every rule, but, in a certain sense, he also highlights the fact that he's superhuman and truly an exception to the rule, as others coming back from injury (Britt, Ryan Williams, Mendenhall et al) had a much more difficult time.
What do these points mean for 2013? Well, for me, they mean that I'm going to be skeptical of WR's who are catching passes from below-average QB's, or that they'll either need to be truly talented enough to overcome their QB (AJ Green) or come at a discount. I'll also be looking even more closely at 2nd and 3rd WR's on teams with great QB's as sleepers. As for the injury question, the guys on the list above would really have to slip for me to take a chance on again. I refuse to reach for a guy who hasn't shown an ability to stay healthy or has a troubling injury history).
Would love to get feedback and hear some of the things you learned last year and how you'll use them as you start to evaluate talent for 2013.
