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What makes someone good at FFB? (1 Viewer)

blue42

Footballguy
Look around in your league...Are the same people always near top??? Perhaps it is you that consistently dominates??? If so, why is that? I'm quite sure it's not luck.When I look around, I see guys (myself included) working the waiver wire as hard as they can, reading as much as they can, and watching as many games as possible. But at the end of the day, there's some sort of intangible skill involved in succeeding at this crazy game. A skill that I'm quite sure I don't possess.Now I probably read more FF material than any other team in our league, but I always feel like I miss the boat when it really counts. I assemble a WR corps of Plex, DJax, Morton, and Porter and then get my A** handed to me each week by some clown with Chad Johnson, Joe Horn, Ike Hilliard, and S. Moss. How does this guy know that he'll outscore me with that lineup EVERY SINGLE WEEK on draft day??? I just don't get it. But everyone else seems to know, and I want the secret!!!!If you knew that Jamal Lewis was going to be such a stud this year, why? If you passed on Ricky Williams this year, why? How did you know that Ahman Green would be a super-stud this year? If you took Torry Holt as your #1 WR, how come??? There's something that I'm missing and I desperately need to figure it out. What does everyone else know that I don't?There's no hope for this season, but a lot of soul searching to do for the next...

 
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Horses Mouth

Footballguy
a lot of luck, pal. you can research, research, and research to your heart's content but it all comes down to getting lucky. granted, you need a solid draft but knowing Holt would be the #1 in the NFL is impossible to predict.

 

lll

Footballguy
Winning matchups are fun and gut wrenching week in and week out but in the end who cares what your record was as long as you make the playoffs. When it comes to the end of the season and FF playoffs you better cross your fingers your guys are healthy and you made the right moves throughout the season. Not to mention you drafted smart.

 

my man otis

Footballguy
I'll agree with the words straight from the Horse's Mouth, but I also want to add the willingness to take risks. This is a game a chance above all, and you have to take calculated risks to do well.

 
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EastBayFunk

Footballguy
In no particular order:1. Knowledge of NFL players/news2. Ability to spot talent3. Ability to determine who is undervalued/overvalued and draft accordingly4. Patience (perhaps my weak point)5. Luck 6. Ability to recognize trends in statistics7. Ability to pick up the right players off the WW

 

Mushu

Footballguy
Aside from the luck, its the ability to look at what COULD happen in the following weeks rather than what HAS happened in the past season.I cannot count the number of times that someone points at a cheatsheet and makes decisions based on LAST season's information.Its the abilitly to forecast results rather than regurgitate stats that has put my team in the playoffs for each of the past five years, in the Superbowl for three of those five years and two Superbowl Championships have resulted in those three trips to the Superbowl.I spend more money than anyone else on the Waiver Wire because I'm a firm believer that although a Championship is not won but can easily be LOST at the auction, it is won by taking risks on the Waiver Wire.

 

Kleck

Footballguy
In no particular order:1. Knowledge of NFL players/news2. Ability to spot talent3. Ability to determine who is undervalued/overvalued and draft accordingly4. Patience (perhaps my weak point)5. Luck 6. Ability to recognize trends in statistics7. Ability to pick up the right players off the WW
Good list.
 
One thing its NOT is luck, and its a losers mentality to think otherwise. I suspect what makes someone successful in FF is the same thing that makes a person successful in anything, they just have a natural ability to be good at it.

 

LHUCKS

Footballguy
In no particular order:1. Knowledge of NFL players/news2. Ability to spot talent3. Ability to determine who is undervalued/overvalued and draft accordingly4. Patience (perhaps my weak point)5. Luck 6. Ability to recognize trends in statistics7. Ability to pick up the right players off the WW
I would add to that list:8. Ability to understand your league and develop draft strategy and a roster management strategy accordingly.I would guess that your average ff'er is not very good at or unaware of #'s 2, 3, 6 and 8.
 
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blue42

Footballguy
Aside from the luck, its the ability to look at what COULD happen in the following weeks rather than what HAS happened in the past season.I cannot count the number of times that someone points at a cheatsheet and makes decisions based on LAST season's information.Its the abilitly to forecast results rather than regurgitate stats that has put my team in the playoffs for each of the past five years, in the Superbowl for three of those five years and two Superbowl Championships have resulted in those three trips to the Superbowl.I spend more money than anyone else on the Waiver Wire because I'm a firm believer that although a Championship is not won but can easily be LOST at the auction, it is won by taking risks on the Waiver Wire.
I gotcha on that point. I fully understand that previous results are only useful in certain context, but what I'm asking is HOW do you forecast???? What do you look at to try and predict future results? What info do you take from previous performances to predict future results?
 

LHUCKS

Footballguy
One thing its NOT is luck, and its a losers mentality to think otherwise. I suspect what makes someone successful in FF is the same thing that makes a person successful in anything, they just have a natural ability to be good at it.
In leagues full of equally matched ffers, luck is the biggest factor...most leagues are not equally matched though.
 
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Cocky Crow

Footballguy
Although luck certainly plays a role in determining some outcomes, it does NOT, or should not be factored in as to why certain fantasy teams always seem to be near the top year after year. Luck, or bad luck, cannot be controlled, or manipulated, or managed, period. It is not a factor as to why some teams are perennial playoffs teams, and why some are always cellar dwellars. My belief is that what really counts is hard work, and a willingness to put more into than you opponents. Desire and effort, some good logic and common sense, and hopefully some natual ability altogether will make you a winner.

 

mlwinokur

Footballguy
I think most people underestimate the value of ACTUALLY WATCHING ALL THE GAMES. No amount of reading or statistics can give you a better feel for the players than watching the games. The best owners in my league have DirectTV NFL Sunday Ticket and TIVO--they watch every minute of every game.

 
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LHUCKS

Footballguy
I think most people underestimate the value of ACTUALLY WATCHING ALL THE GAMES. No amount of reading or statistics can give you a better feel for the players than watching the games. The best owners in my league have DirectTV NFL Sunday Ticket and TIVO--they watch every minute of every game.
I completely agree. Watching all the games is vital for #s 2, 3 and 7.
 

Drugrunner's Alias

Footballguy
In no particular order:1. Knowledge of NFL players/news2. Ability to spot talent3. Ability to determine who is undervalued/overvalued and draft accordingly4. Patience (perhaps my weak point)5. Luck 6. Ability to recognize trends in statistics7. Ability to pick up the right players off the WW
I would add to that list:8. Ability to understand your league and develop draft strategy and a roster management strategy accordingly.I would guess that your average ff'er is not very good at or unaware of #'s 2, 3, 6 and 8.
I'm very strong in #'s 1, 2, 3 and 8.#'s 4, 5, and 7 are definitely my weak issues. (Well, not really 7, as I pick up every player in the league 5 times a year. Then #4 Patience kills me because I drop every player in the league 5 times as well.)Not being a Math guy, I am neutral on #6.But really, you just know. I can't explain it better than that. Like drafting, when all is said and done, I am just a gut drafter. I have a master list of players sorta ranked, but not really, and you just follow along with the draft.The key is, there is no spoon. ;)
 
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Brewdude

Footballguy
I still only get 5 games a week and am always at or near the top of my leagues. I've missed the playoffs a total of two times.In general, I agree with the list above except that #7 and #2 are the same, IMO. Research befor the draft and getting the right player off the WW is key.DomDavis this year is huge. I saw some upside and took a chance on him in two of my 3 leagues, then got lucky with the gamble. I've had several players rotate through my rosters because I'm always looking for that next gem. We have 16-18 man rosters and I've done AT LEAST 20 FA/WW transactions in each league.The biggest single attribute a successful FF owner has is discipline. You ALWAYS stay on top of what's happening, even when the odds are stacked against you.Since I don't have the Sunday Ticket, I rely on FBG's "what you ought to know" write ups to tell me about the game.

 

JohnnyTitan

Footballguy
In no particular order:1. Knowledge of NFL players/news2. Ability to spot talent3. Ability to determine who is undervalued/overvalued and draft accordingly4. Patience (perhaps my weak point)5. Luck 6. Ability to recognize trends in statistics7. Ability to pick up the right players off the WW
I think #2 above and what mlwinokur commented on are 100% correlated. Reading a box score and actually seeing a young RB shake-and-bake for a 4 yard gain are not the same thing.Kinda related to #3, but not exactly...I'd say the ability to search out and auction/draft upside. If two players are projected to have the same numbers but one has a chance to produce much more you obviously go for that guy. Starting a full line-up EVERY week. It seems so obvious, but every year I see teams running into bye problems or starting "Game Time Decisions". I always think it's safter to start the healty "B" player over the game-time-decision "A" player. (Although FBG helps immensely with this! D. Davis this morning was a good example)Steer clear of players who have a good chance of losing their jobs. K. Stewart, K Warner, M Brunell, E. Smith, D. Staley, S. Mack and W. Dunn were all picks capable of playing themselves out of jobs.Weekly matchups - a given.Use the Waiver-wire to acquire depth and then don't be afraid to trade depth for studs / patch holes come this time of year. It's great to have reliable back-ups, but they can't score you more playoff points from the bench.Build your team for week#1 of the playoffs. This includes estimating good matchups early on in the year (even @ the draft) and not being afraid to hang onto M. Bennet / M. Vick / C. Pennington.Finally, there is a TON of luck involved. I agree that this averages out and doesn't have much (if anything) to do with year-after-year results. But on a given week ANYTHING can and does happen in the NFL. Live with it.
 

Diamond One

Footballguy
Gut feelings. Sometimes you just gotta roll with 'em despite what the critics or cheatsheets say. 'Course, those feelings are based off of a sound education and awareness of what is going on in the NFL as well as your own league!

 

chinawildman

Footballguy
Luck and some more luck.I just lost to the guy in my league who after picking portis in the first, autodrafted the rest of the way. He has yet to make a single roster adjustment this season, starting guys that are on byes, and has started clinton portis and mike anderson every game of the season....... well except for this week of course. But he still won (without any RBs). Now he'll be at 8-2 and tied w/ me for the best record in the league (16 teams).BTW I think that having transaction fees is a great way of reducing the weight of luck in FF. People tend to do more research on players when they realize that it'll actually cost them money.

 

tommyboy

Footballguy
One thing its NOT is luck, and its a losers mentality to think otherwise. I suspect what makes someone successful in FF is the same thing that makes a person successful in anything, they just have a natural ability to be good at it.
that's not completely true if you look at a teams "luck" in terms of how many pts other teams score on avg AGAINST your team week to week. Most FF leagues I've heard of don't have a true "defense" where you limit scoring against you in any way. So if you are the unlucky lottery loser on draft day when you draw the schedule and week after week your team consistently plays that weeks high scoring team and you end up the season with the highest "points against" avg, what part of skill is that? I've had years where I was in the top 3 out of 10 teams in scoring yet I was the highest in scored against and missed the playoffs, meanwhile some scrub team with a much lower scoring avg and a much lower pts against avg gets in by a hair and promptly gets ousted in the 1st round. So there is an element of luck, most definitely.however, to be good year after year also depends on the league format, redraft or dynasty? In a redraft you have to draft well first off. If you draft true studs early vs marginal studs then you will be able to take some risks on potential studs in the later rounds, which requires knowledge of the schedule strength of all the teams, knowledge of teams strategy, knowledge of coaching philosophy, knowledge of basically anything and everything to do with current NFL info. For example, you watch **** Vermeil...he makes RB's, turns them into gold. Parcells, gets performances out of his QB's and defenses. Holmgren loves to throw in the red zone. Some players each year are due, they didn't do well last year maybe they were injured, maybe they have a new QB who's better (look what Bledsoe did in Buffalo last year for Peerless) than the previous year. This year I took a chance on Hilliard and Steve Smith, those paid off. I also traded Tony Gonzo for Torry Holt straight up. I also traded Ricky Williams for Priest Holmes. I also picked up Kansas City's Def off waivers. I also traded for Fred Taylor. All of these moves have paid off, but that is unusual. You could say I've been lucky, and I have been lucky. I didn't target Priest but the offer was made and I took the risk at the draft that he was healthy. I did target Taylor because I thought at the time he was undervalued and would perform well in the 2nd half. I did target Hilliard because I figured they'd throw alot and if he stayed healthy he'd get a lot of looks. I targeted Smith because I know how unstable hamstring Muhammad is down there, plus Smith is the real deal, he's blazing fast and cuts on a dime. He's also hungry and young. Trading Gonzo for Holt was to me a no-brainer at the time purely based on total pts scored per year (based on last years numbers not this years). That guy just wanted what he percieved to be the #1 TE of all time, so that trade happened.I guess the last part about being succesful at this is knowing the motivations and desires of your fellow owners, because if you understand them you can make trades that will benefit you.yeah, there's a lot of skill involved, but there's some luck too.
 
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Drugrunner's Alias

Footballguy
8. Ability to understand your league and develop draft strategy and a roster management strategy accordingly.
In the end, I'm going to say this is the one single thing you can do to greatly improve your success rate. Knowing that your league gives all scores 6 points, that your league rewards 2 points for TE receptions, that receptions are counted or not. That your league combines Rushing and receiving yards to reach bonus levels, or do they keep them separate. Then building a team to match it. That's huge.As an example: Take it for what it is worth, but I dislike Tiki Barber as a football player. The little runt shouldn't be valuable in my book, he is small, I don't know how he produces, and if I had my way, he'd be a 3rd down back at best. He's not my type of player.Last season, we get into a FanEX type league that rewards players for receptions and also doesn't let you make any roster moves past the original draft. One of the first guys I take? Tiki Barber. I absolutely dislike the guy, but I took him. (I feel the same way about Westbrook as well)Another league, You couldn't pay me to take the guy.Knowing that your league gives points for say receptions, or subtracts them for INTs is huge. How you build your team to exploit that is one of the few ways you can actually control your destiny and create a better chance of winning.Drafting the right guys is one thing, but understanding why they are the right guy to draft is key.
 

Twilight

Footballguy
In no particular order:1. Knowledge of NFL players/news2. Ability to spot talent3. Ability to determine who is undervalued/overvalued and draft accordingly4. Patience (perhaps my weak point)5. Luck 6. Ability to recognize trends in statistics7. Ability to pick up the right players off the WW
I would add to that list:8. Ability to understand your league and develop draft strategy and a roster management strategy accordingly.I would guess that your average ff'er is not very good at or unaware of #'s 2, 3, 6 and 8.
Luck accounts, IMO, to about 4-5 games in the standing every year in HtH.Look at the league Roasters was in that changed the schedule. 6-2 to 2-6 because of the Schedule. That is the Luck factor. Moulds injury was a luck factor. As for me, 1,2, 7,8 are my strong points. Patience has killed me on occasion (Graham and Steve Smith are 2 names there). As for 6, I rarely trust trends in Stats. It seems every time I start to see a trend, the NFL adjusts and the trend is shot down in flames. :rant:
 

Waverunner

Footballguy
Alot of good points brought up here and I will probably repeat most of them. but we always have the same 4 guys in the playoffs each year out of 6 possible teams. They have some things in common and some use a combination of the following.1. Extremely prepared for the draft. Have a system that they trust.2. Realize that the later rounds in the draft aren't throw away rounds.3. Know thine enemy I got Torry Holt off of a guy who knows his stuff but I knew that he likes to start a RB in the flex position and I offered him a perfect guy for the flex and he gave me Torry before he started to break out.4. Work the waiver wire but not to the deteriment of dropping guys that you are waiting to develop but haven't gotten their chance yet.5. Patience6. Start your studs7. Play matchups with your non studs8. Don't let your bias towards liking a team cloud your judgement9. Watch as many games as possible10. Listen to others but trust your instictsThat is my top ten

 

JohnnyTitan

Footballguy
8. Don't let your bias towards liking a team cloud your judgement
This is a great point, and one that is usually over-looked by newbies.Guess how the guy in one of my money leagues is doing with 6 Steelers on his squad? (He did the same thing last year...his first...with better results).It could also be expanded to biases towards your favourite players. Sometimes it's just better not to waste that pick on George / Bettis / CuMar..no matter how much you like them.
 

Mushu

Footballguy
Aside from the luck, its the ability to look at what COULD happen in the following weeks rather than what HAS happened in the past season.I cannot count the number of times that someone points at a cheatsheet and makes decisions based on LAST season's information.Its the abilitly to forecast results rather than regurgitate stats that has put my team in the playoffs for each of the past five years, in the Superbowl for three of those five years and two Superbowl Championships have resulted in those three trips to the Superbowl.I spend more money than anyone else on the Waiver Wire because I'm a firm believer that although a Championship is not won but can easily be LOST at the auction, it is won by taking risks on the Waiver Wire.
I gotcha on that point. I fully understand that previous results are only useful in certain context, but what I'm asking is HOW do you forecast???? What do you look at to try and predict future results? What info do you take from previous performances to predict future results?
The #1 barometer to a team's success is to watch thier Offensive Line during the Pre-Season.....
 

Boone22

Footballguy
I gotcha on that point.  I fully understand that previous results are only useful in certain context, but what I'm asking is HOW do you forecast????  What do you look at to try and predict future results?  What info do you take from previous performances to predict future results?
For predicting future results of certain players I think you have to look at several things (In no particular order and I'm sure it's not complete!)1. Opportunity- how often does this guy get to touch the ball

2. Offensive scheme- does the team's offense fit the players skills?

3. Past performance- how has he performed in the last few years

4. Surrounding cast- does the player have teammates who will make him better? Does he have teammates who will steal his playing time?

5. Changes to the team- coaching changes, offensive system changes, teammate changes, etc

6. New surroundings- has the player changed teams?

7.....

Examples of some of these would include (IMHO)

QB

O-line

passing offense?

decent to good to great WRs?

Players talent level

RB

O-line

Opportunity-primary back or splitting time or RBBC or talented back-up waiting to break out

Players talent level

WR

QB-skill level of QB? Decent back-up QB?

Passing offense?

Players talent level

These examples aren't the only things I look at but they certainly are things to be considered when trying to predict player production.

 
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Twilight

Footballguy
In no particular order:6. Ability to recognize trends in statistics
::Moulds injury was a luck factor. :
Mould's injury was the even-odd year statistical trend! ;) Couldn't resist
You got me there. :lol: I was looking for a non-history of injury for the example, but Moulds's scoring history I guess makes that as predictable as Faulk's was.
 

sinatravolta

Footballguy
One thing that I think helps a lot that maybe not everyone does is strategy of when you will probably be taking people at certain positions before the draft starts. One of the biggest ingredients to knowing that is looking at your league's previous drafts. Going into this year's draft I looked at both of the last 2 year's drafts (and how many people at the key positions were gone by each round) and that helped me figure out things like how long to wait before taking my QB. I know that guys in my league tend to pick QBs earlier than I would - so there's never going to be value there for me- but I also don't want to wait so long that I'm picking guys who don't have much upside. So, I picked Tom Brady and Patrick Ramsey in the 8th and 9th rounds of my league- while guys like Gannon and Aaron Brooks went early in the 3rd. For about the first half of my draft I already had in mind guys that might fall to me at each pick, and who I'd want to take there the most among those guys. Of course some things will happen that you can't predict and you'll need to change your strategy, but if you're not doing everything on the fly in the draft, you'll generally do better. Another example is I was in the 11 slot. I knew my first 2 picks would be RBs- because by the time of my 3rd pick- there just wouldn't be any solid starters left. I also knew that I was almost certainly going to take 2 WRs in the 3rd and 4th (unless another good RB fell somehow- which they didn't). That's because I knew from history that a lot of teams in my league are picking WRs in the 4th and 5th. That way I get value there- because I'm getting in on the front end of the run. Note- I took Horn and Burress - 1 good pick, 1 bad, so I could have chosen wiser- but as I expected- 12 WRs went off the board before my next pick- so I definitely chose the position wisely at least.

 
This year I took a chance on Hilliard and Steve Smith, those paid off. I also traded Tony Gonzo for Torry Holt straight up. I also traded Ricky Williams for Priest Holmes. I also picked up Kansas City's Def off waivers. I also traded for Fred Taylor. All of these moves have paid off, but that is unusual. You could say I've been lucky, and I have been lucky.
Thats not luck, thats good gut instinct. Every team starts of a game/season with an equal shot of getting lucky, the person who has the better team will win more time that not. There are alot of factors, most mentioned in this thread but none even close to as important as gut intstinct. Problem with that, good luck convincing someone on this board that you like a player to perform based on "gut instinct"I bumped a post earlier of an argument i had with a Jets fan that said he would chew off his foot if Santana Moss caught for 1200 yards this year, like i predicted in the summer. His argument was he watched more Jets games than i, which im sure he did, but i watched enough that my gut told me he was gonna do well this year. You can study your ### of, go over every statistical trends dating back to 1937, etc., but their is nothing more imprtant in FF than good ole' fashion gut instinct.
 

Steelers4Life

Footballguy
To think it's not a large part luck in fantasy football is absolutely ridiculous.Sure, you need some good players, but sometimes you end up with good players as a result of luck, especially in the case of an injury.And you always have a guy in every league that is one of the top scorers in the league but doesn't win because of scheduling quirks. That's luck in it's purest form. You play a different guy a few weeks a year and your season turns out drastically different.

 

beto

Footballguy
Now I probably read more FF material than any other team in our league, but I always feel like I miss the boat when it really counts. I assemble a WR corps of Plex, DJax, Morton, and Porter and then get my A** handed to me each week by some clown with Chad Johnson, Joe Horn, Ike Hilliard, and S. Moss. How does this guy know that he'll outscore me with that lineup EVERY SINGLE WEEK on draft day??? I just don't get it. But everyone else seems to know, and I want the secret!!!!If you knew that Jamal Lewis was going to be such a stud this year, why? If you passed on Ricky Williams this year, why? How did you know that Ahman Green would be a super-stud this year? If you took Torry Holt as your #1 WR, how come??? There's something that I'm missing and I desperately need to figure it out. What does everyone else know that I don't?There's no hope for this season, but a lot of soul searching to do for the next...
Great post blue...it is hard to get better at something without asking questionsFor me it definitely boils down to recognizing who is undervalued based on prior seasons stats and sometimes recognizing a new opportunity. I watch a fair amount of games and I try to listen to what people say on this board and I hit pro-football-reference.com like a mad dog. (thanks Doug & Co.)You mention some specific players in your post so I will give my 2 cents why I avoid/go after them:Plex, Porter - Classic example of overvalued players based on last year and this years situations. Both were reached for earlier than I would pick them in my draft leagues.DJax, Morton - Classic high upside players and I don't mind owning them but neither have a history of being able to carry your WR corps.Chad Johnson, Joe Horn - #1 WRs in good offenses, Horn was valued about right this year. Johnson was undervalued a bit because he came on late last year.Ike Hilliard - A player I would count on as a #3 WR. If you ever watched Giants games you know that Collins goes to him over the middle and on 3rd downs - ALOT. Health problems are his downside.Santana Moss - I didn't see this one coming. Speed can kill I guess, and Chrebet and Conway are old.Jamal Lewis - Undervalued based on what he can do when healthy. I would rather have him in the second round than a QB or William Green, Charlie Garner and Dillon.Ricky Williams - I like him, but I liked the other top backs better based alot on gut feel.Ahman Green - Here is a case where you use stats. Ahman was a top 3 back in '02 that didn't perform up to draft status but using his age and prior performance you could be fairly comfortable in him putting up #s.Torry Holt - Another great stats case. He was getting all those touches with no TDs to back it up. This year was just a good gamble that the TDs would come with the yards. Again, he was undervalued because of this.One thing to mention is that it is easier to do this in a slow internet draft (12 hours per pick) rather than a face-to-face draft were you have to make quick decisions. I am not really a waiver wire kind of player and really rely on my drafts to mass a team. If you check out my signature you can see that I am not doing nearly as well in the draft that was an autodraft or in the FanBall thing where you pick different players every week. A lot of it is knowing where your strengths lie.
 

Evilhomer3k

Footballguy
If you look at a single year in FF luck can play a large part. However, luck generally balances out over the years and, to a lesser extent, weeks of the season. There are several factors to luck. The biggest one, imo, being the schedule. There is always a team doing poorly in the win-loss column that is very high in total points scored. I'm in a league right now there the top scorer has about 70 points more than the second highest scorer (980 pts vs 910 roughly) and he is in last place. Not tied for last, but dead last. He has the highest points against by a good margin. His average points against him is 120. The second highest average is 103 (which happens to be me). You cant tell me there isn't some luck involved in that.Another type of luck is injuries. Now, you can certainly minimize that by looking at a players past injury history. But, there are some injuries that just happen because of sheer luck. Favre could go out tonight and break his leg. Is he as likely to do that as Chris Chandler? No. But if he did, I would consider that unlucky (or lucky for whomever was playing against favre).There is also luck in the game, itself. McCardell's catch yesterday is an example of that. If Johnson threw that pass to him a dozen times, he'd probably catch that once or twice. If the defenders glance back on that and see it coming, no catch. If the ball has slightly more or less spin, he doesn't catch it. Another example of luck is Todd Heaps raping by the officials last night. If he gets that call (which he certainly should have), the Ravens have the ball on the 3 and Lewis probably gets a score. There's some luck involved there. There is luck involved in every facet of football and every facet of fantasy football. It will generally even out over time, but in every game, there is probably something that happens that could easily have gone another way.

People tend to do more research on players when they realize that it'll actually cost them money.
Amen to that. I'm in two leagues that charge and two that dont. In the non-charging leagues, people pick up every flash in the pan player around. Sometimes they work out because of the sheer number of players picked up by a person. In the league that charges, people don't pick up just any player with a decent stat line. You have to make a conscious choice to spend $5 on a player and you arent as willing to take a chance on 25 guys a season.
 

cgh3rd

Footballguy
The biggest non player evaluation factor is Points Scored Against. There is nothing you can do to control this. It is the luck of the draw. Every 1st place team in my 3 leagues, 5 divisions total, has a low amount of Points Scored Against. Yes, they have good teams but they have seriously benefitted from this. OTOH, I have been seriously pounded in Points Scored Against. Every week teams have their best week of the season against me or I'm in a nail biter with some freak occurence beating me. Meanwhile a glance at the league scoreboard makes me want to vomit because I probably can beat 2/3 of the other scores. I'm in the top 5 in scoring in one league and I'm 2-8. Luckily, that league has one playoff spot for the team who doesn't qualify by record but has the highest amount of points scored. Last year, I made the playoffs in all three very competitive leagues I'm in. This year, the fantasy gods have conspired with injuries and scheduling to keep me out of two playoffs.I do agree however that if you are consistent each year in your prep and evaluations you will be excel but some years the planets don't align and things go bad no matter what is done the bleeding doesn't quit until you are dead.

 

Big Sug

Footballguy
I think most people underestimate the value of ACTUALLY WATCHING ALL THE GAMES. No amount of reading or statistics can give you a better feel for the players than watching the games. The best owners in my league have DirectTV NFL Sunday Ticket and TIVO--they watch every minute of every game.
Bingo. Screw Tivo and Sunday Ticket. I go to my local sports bar every week and literally watch every snap of every game. I've won my league 3 straight years and 4 of last 5.
 

Evilhomer3k

Footballguy
I don't think you have to watch every game every week. I watch many games but I also have weeks where I only get to watch on Sunday night or Monday night. I'm doing well in all my leagues. As it stands now, I'll be in the playoffs in 3 out of 4 leagues. In the fourth, I'm one game behind three people but I have all of them beat in points scored by at least 75 points and I play two of them in the next two weeks and I should beat the guy who is one game ahead of them (2 ahead of me). Anyway, I do think you need to plan out your strategy for the draft, you need to prepare well for the draft (I do a lot of reading on these boards), and you need to analyze the draft strategies of other teams. Once the draft is over, you need to look at waiver pickups for potential and be willing to trade to improve your team. One of the biggest trades I made was in a keeper league where I traded Emmitt Smith, Lamar Smith, and Steve Beuerlein for Ahman Green. It seems ludicrous today, but that was Green's first year with GB and the year that Beuerlein finished second in our league and the Smiths were both top ten backs. The guy we traded them to had Green and that was about it. We traded away depth for a young player who was having a good year. We could make a similar trade this year for Rudi Johnson (something like Pittman, S Davis, and Garcia) for Rudi. Basically, we found a need that someone had (not enough decent keepers when you had to keep 4) and we filled that need for them by trading away our backups (we also had S Davis) for a better player. It's risky (see my post in the thread on M Harrison) but it can give you the final push to the championship. Basically, I know I don't have the time to watch that much football so I read the informed opinions of others (the Joe's, Drinen's, and sharkpool posters of the world) who do.

 
[QUOTE=']
|||J:fishing: ;) ,JAA
You might think I am fishing, but I am not...Fantasy Football, IMO, is 100% luck... [/QUOTE]Im in 9 leagues, and there are a few guys where all the luck in the world isnt gonna help them, and im talking before we even draft.
 

Johnny Ryall

Footballguy
I guess the last part about being succesful at this is knowing the motivations and desires of your fellow owners, because if you understand them you can make trades that will benefit you.
This is an excellent point. You should know and seek out the owners in your league who fit any of the descriptions below and try to deal with them:- the guy who likes to "shake things up" after a 1-3 start- the guy who always wants to trade for players AFTER they post a 150 yard, 2 TD game- the guy who gives up on their studs after just a few weeks of poor performance- the guy who likes to trade even when his team is doing well because "he's bored"
 

BlueOnion

Footballguy
Fantasy Football results certainly have a strong influence on luck, but here are some of things I focus on and I think I have enjoyed a lot of success.

1 Talent \ Potential

First and foremost, somebody has to identify 'who has the skills and who does not have the skills'.

2 Has a player had an opportunity yet

I believe being able to answer this question has propelled me to most of my Championships. Everybody in the NFL (front office, coaches and players) are professionals and they all like to 'prove' they are the best at what they do. So instead of associating last year's statistics, physical attributes and such with a player, I look at their salary cap numbers and how the player was acquired (big trade or high draft pick).

Using this logic, here are some of my moves I have made over the past two seasons:

Got Ricky Williams last season: Everybody on the Dolphins needed Ricky to put up big numbers to justify trading for him; the owner, the General Manager, the coach...but most importantly Ricky Williams. The whole Miami organization needed Ricky to put up big numbers as 'proof' he was worth the acquisition and Ricky himself knew he had yet to prove himself to the NFL fans and media.

Avoided Ricky this season: For the same reasons above, if Ricky put up huge numbers, it would not prove anything more with the Miami organization. Sure, Ricky had the talent to replicate his 2002 numbers, but was their a burning desire to do it within Ricky or in the organization?

Clinton Portis last season I thought Clinton was the most talented back in Denver last season. I felt if he got the opportunity, he would do anything possible to 'prove' he belongs in the NFL. There were a few times where Portis was banged up, but there was no way he would let it get in his way as he 'proved' he belonged in the NFL. The Chiefs game last season was a great example, he scored 4 touchdowns. But earlier in the day he threw up because he had the flu. Portis did not tell anybody about this until after the game. Hard to imagine him doing the same thing this year after he 'proved' how good he was last season.

Drafted Santana Moss this season: Did I know Santana was this good? No. Did I think he would produce this season? Honestly, I was not sure. But I had him ranked fairly high on my draft board for the following reasons. The Jets spent a high draft pick for him a few seasons ago. They also let L. Coles go. Now imagine being Santana Moss at the Jets facility over the last year. Everyday he goes to the Jets facilities, sees other players, sees management, sees the coaches and he must be thinking to himself, "These people are wondering if I was worth the draft pick, can I replace Coles, am I bust?" One does not have to be smart to realize that Moss is going to get an opportunity (Coles left) and that Moss is going to be out to 'prove' he is as good as he thinks he is. I drafted him thinking 'he could bust out', not that I knew he would. If Moss has a career year this season, I will downgrade him next season because he has already 'proved' what he is capable of doing.

Now this theory does not always work (nothing 'always' works in Fantasy Football), but it is one of the things I look for. Unfortunately because I look into the 'mental' aspect of each player, there are some players I miss on. I really knew nothing about the mental makeup of the 'Packers organization' and Ahman Green, so I really had no comment on Green coming into the season. So I missed on him. But I did hit on Jamal Lewis. Everybody and their sister who saw Baltimore at their minicamps could not stop talking about 'how awesome Jamal looks', 'how focus Jamal looks' and Brian Billick saying, 'Our offense will run through Jamal."

The BlueOnion

 

Leo2228

Footballguy
Look around in your league...Are the same people always near top??? Perhaps it is you that consistently dominates??? If so, why is that? I'm quite sure it's not luck.When I look around, I see guys (myself included) working the waiver wire as hard as they can, reading as much as they can, and watching as many games as possible. But at the end of the day, there's some sort of intangible skill involved in succeeding at this crazy game. A skill that I'm quite sure I don't possess.Now I probably read more FF material than any other team in our league, but I always feel like I miss the boat when it really counts. I assemble a WR corps of Plex, DJax, Morton, and Porter and then get my A** handed to me each week by some clown with Chad Johnson, Joe Horn, Ike Hilliard, and S. Moss. How does this guy know that he'll outscore me with that lineup EVERY SINGLE WEEK on draft day??? I just don't get it. But everyone else seems to know, and I want the secret!!!!If you knew that Jamal Lewis was going to be such a stud this year, why? If you passed on Ricky Williams this year, why? How did you know that Ahman Green would be a super-stud this year? If you took Torry Holt as your #1 WR, how come??? There's something that I'm missing and I desperately need to figure it out. What does everyone else know that I don't?There's no hope for this season, but a lot of soul searching to do for the next...
I am in third place i think most of it has to do with a bad schedule. I have the best team in the league but ever week i get the worst match up . next year when i draft am going to look at the schedule of each player. but am not going to turn down a studd because it.
 

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