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what mistakes do fantasy players make? (1 Viewer)

fsufan

fsufan

Footballguy
I was wondering what mistakes you think fantasy players make and what mistakes you have made over the year?

I play in dynasty leagues and I have made the mistake of trading for a player(s) that I think will be a sleeper for the up coming year but that player does not work out. Example: Bell last year.

I think owners undervalue vet WRs in any league.

 
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the biggest one I see is the overvaluing of:

a. players on their own team

b. rookie picks after 1.04

c. rookie players waiting for the upside to kick in

 
I was wondering what mistakes you think fantasy players make and what mistakes you have made over the year?

I play in dynasty leagues and I have made the mistake of trading for a player(s) that I think will be a sleeper for the up coming year but that player does not work out. Example: Bell last year.

I think owners undervalued vet WRs in any league.
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I don't think the Bell situation has played itself out yet. It may not yet be a mistake for you. I can, however, see where you might make some mistakes, but veterans are often undervalued in many leagues. Veterans are also overvalued, like Priest Holmes was last year, and M. Faulk the year before.
 
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Not being able to project playing time. Last year; A.Brooks, B.Griese, K.Jones, J.Horn, T.Owens, B.Engram, A.Johnson, J.J.Arrington, C.Rodgers, N.Davenport. (Finishing one spot out of the playoffs w/ that roster, priceless!)

 
I have made a killing in dynasty leagues when everyone hoards younger guys and ignore proven players that still have several top years left. You can only win the year you are playing in, and many times the future young studs don't pan out anyway. I generally have been fortunate enough to then trade the older guys to teams thinking that the guy in question has more in the tank and trade him for a youn guy in a great situation.

 
In dynasty leagues I see

1.Owners overvaluing rookie picks

2.Overvaluing young WRs

3.Undervaluing all vets (over 30 years old)

 
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I was wondering what mistakes you think fantasy players make and what mistakes you have made over the year?

I play in dynasty leagues and I have made the mistake of trading for a player(s) that I think will be a sleeper for the up coming year but that player does not work out. Example: Bell last year.

I think owners undervalued vet WRs in any league.
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I don't think the Bell situation has played itself out yet. It may not yet be a mistake for you. I can, however, see where you might make some mistakes, but veterans are often undervalued in many leagues. Veterans are also overvalued, like Priest Holmes was last year, and M. Faulk the year before.
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it could work out, hope so I have him in 3 leagues. But last year I traded for him to be my #2 RB.
 
Not picking up recently hot trending players from the WW. Sometimes you have to take a risk and pick someone up the week before most other owners would, but at the same time you don't want to overpay.

 
My biggest mistake, which I still make, is that I get emotionally attached to my elite players and can't let them go in a trade before they take the inevitable plunge off the performance cliff. This is true, even when the signs indicate that the future is downhill for the player. Keeping Ahman while the O-line in GB deteriorated is a good example of this. I guess that is a variation of "overvaluing my own players."

 
Mine is drafting or picking up players that I "know" are going to break out, and refusing to accept that they aren't going to do so. Someone pointed out that I had picked up Mewelde Moore too soon in the draft the last 3 years.

 
My biggest mistake, which I still make, is that I get emotionally attached to my elite players and can't let them go in a trade before they take the inevitable plunge off the performance cliff. This is true, even when the signs indicate that the future is downhill for the player. Keeping Ahman while the O-line in GB deteriorated is a good example of this. I guess that is a variation of "overvaluing my own players."
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I have made a mistake of not trading a player when I know he will never be a good fantasy player. Barlow burned me because I was too stubborn to trade him.
 
Considering the guys posting here in the months between January and August are the exception and not the rule, I feel free in calling other FF owners the average guy. The following speaks directly about average owners in dynasty formats.

Experience has shown me the average guy either over or under values rookie picks. There is no middle ground. Either they'll pay at the backside to obtain a rookie pick or give them up for next to nothing.

The average guy is easily swayed by the national media's opinion of players. Local newspapers and team message boards have better news once you find a beat writer or thread poster you can rely upon. Also, that news is usually more timely versus what ESPN churns out. It is the difference between grabbing Gado a week early or fighting for him the week after he scores 3 times against the Falcons, for example.

Average owner wants to be the guy that picks, trades for or picks up the next big thing. Their ego often supercedes their common sense and ability to reason. This along with their feelings towards rookie picks comes in handy come trade time.

The average owner will give up on players WAY too soon. The NFL normally gives a 1st or 2nd rounder 3 years to develop and produce. The average FF owner gives a player 1 season and panics.

As was stated, the average FF owner sees little value in veteran players or guys about to hit 30. Yes, football is a difficult game but an athlete's prime is between the ages of 28-31. Owners often write players off a season or so too soon.

I tend to get a little caught up with wanting to draft certain players and will overpay to move up and take anyone I have a hunch about. Sometimes the gut call pays off and sometimes it does not. We are all guilty of one thing or another.

 
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Considering the guys posting here in the months between January and August are the exception and not the rule, I feel free in calling other FF owners the average guy. The following speaks directly about average owners in dynasty formats.

Experience has shown me the average guy either over or under values rookie picks. There is no middle ground. Either they'll pay at the backside to obtain a rookie pick or give them up for next to nothing.

The average guy is easily swayed by the national media's opinion of players. Local newspapers and team message boards have better news once you find a beat writer or thread poster you can rely upon. Also, that news is usually more timely versus what ESPN churns out. It is the difference between grabbing Gado a week early or fighting for him the week after he scores 3 times against the Falcons, for example.

Average owner wants to be the guy that picks, trades for or picks up the next big thing. Their ego often supercedes their common sense and ability to reason. This along with their feelings towards rookie picks comes in handy come trade time.

The average owner will give up on players WAY too soon. The NFL normally gives a 1st or 2nd rounder 3 years to develop and produce. The average FF owner gives a player 1 season and panics.

As was stated, the average FF owner sees little value in veteran players or guys about to hit 30. Yes, football is a difficult game but an athlete's prime is between the ages of 28-31. Owners often write players off a season or so too soon.
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:goodposting: :thumbup:
 
My biggest mistake, which I still make, is that I get emotionally attached to my elite players and can't let them go in a trade before they take the inevitable plunge off the performance cliff. This is true, even when the signs indicate that the future is downhill for the player. Keeping Ahman while the O-line in GB deteriorated is a good example of this. I guess that is a variation of "overvaluing my own players."
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I have done the exact same thing and am currently fighting this urge again in keeping Peyton this next year.
 
My biggest mistake is listening to so called experts to much. haha (Picking wrong starters) Cost me a lot of wins!

I have had Cooley and Shockey two years now as a TE tandrum. I hardly never get them two right! I am trying like heck to trade one of them! I am convinced it is only way to solve the problem!

Cost me Super Bowl and 300 bucks two years ago sitting Dillon last game because everyone said he wouldn't play. He didn't only play, he had at least 2, maybe 3 td's that day. I lost by a pt. I would rather get blown out then lose by a point!

It burns me when I beat myself!

 
I agree with the guys that say undervaluing veterans is a common mistake. Also, getting too attached to stars is a problem. Our keeper auction league has a guy that's known for being a huge LaDanian Tomlinson fan, and those jerks make me overpay for him every year.

Also, drinking too much during the draft is a common problem. Spending the last six rounds last year hitting on the stripper that showed up to deal the post-draft poker tournament was probably also a bad idea.

 
Getting swayed by "unreal" talent even though that talent may be on crappy teams, crappy situations, or injury-prone; my dynasty team in 2k5 had Andre Johnson, Roy Williams, Kevin Jones, Willis Mcgahee, and JJ arrington who all have/had the "great talent" line associated with em, but were major busts.

 
I think my biggest mistake is not initiating trade offers often enough. I'm trying to do this more in 2006, but in years past most of the deals I've been involved in were ones initiated by others that I've accepted (sometimes after some negotiation).

A team that can swing good trades can improve its roster in a hurry, and I've seen deals in some of my leagues that have blown me away. I wonder what the heck the loser in the deal was thinking, and then I ask myself why I wasn't out there the way the winner of that deal was, improving my own team instead of seeing him improve his.

I think I give too much credit to people for understanding what they are doing, so I don't like to make an offer that I wouldn't accept if I were them. It feels kind of slimy making such an offer, and when I do it and am rejected I feel like I've insulted the other guy's intelligence. So, I look for win-win trades that help both teams, which are hard to find. Yet, as I said, lots of :shock: types of deals seem to get made in my leagues by others, so I'm going to be less shy about trying it in the future.

 
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Fantasy players don't weigh heavily enough the format/scoring of their specific league and adjust the rankings/analysis accordingly.

 
Although I don't really do this any more, some fantasy owners overvalue players on the NFL team they root for. Really a big problem if you are a Lions fan :bag: .

 
I think my biggest mistake is not initiating trade offers often enough. I'm trying to do this more in 2006, but in years past most of the deals I've been involved in were ones initiated by others that I've accepted (sometimes after some negotiation).

A team that can swing good trades can improve its roster in a hurry, and I've seen deals in some of my leagues that have blown me away. I wonder what the heck the loser in the deal was thinking, and then I ask myself why I wasn't out there the way the winner of that deal was, improving my own team instead of seeing him improve his.

I think I give too much credit to people for understanding what they are doing, so I don't like to make an offer that I wouldn't accept if I were them. It feels kind of slimy making such an offer, and when I do it and am rejected I feel like I've insulted the other guy's intelligence. So, I look for win-win trades that help both teams, which are hard to find. Yet, as I said, lots of :shock: types of deals seem to get made in my leagues by others, so I'm going to be less shy about trying it in the future.
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Hello, my name is Dan. :bag: I too will address this flaw in my game in 2006!! :thumbup:

 
Actually, last season I corrected one mistake I made for a long time. I finally got myself some cheap veteran talent at WR by acquiring Keyshawn and Driver for close to my league's minimum salary.

I also find that people overvalue salary-matching rights in contract leagues, and tend to misbid on such players.

 
1) trying to add the same players on all of my dynasty teams

2) TRADE HAPPY 9trading just for da hell of it)!!!!!!!!

3) On draft day last year i was gonna draft LJ at 4.05 in my initial dynasty and was dead set on doing just that.....i ended up getting an offer of 4.07 and another pick ( i think a 6th rounder) to move down a few spots....other owner BURNED me and selected LJ and went on ahead and won the league... All of this is to say...Follow your 1st mind.

 
Things to do!

1) over-hype rookies when you own the top rookie picks and post several topics on the main FF forums... :hey: Then let it be know you would trade your rookie picks if its worth it..... :bag:

2) instead of making an trade proposal, send a friendly email out to a owner you wanting to deal with, if he really wants to deal he will communicate back with you.

 
I think my biggest mistake is not initiating trade offers often enough.  I'm trying to do this more in 2006, but in years past most of the deals I've been involved in were ones initiated by others that I've accepted (sometimes after some negotiation). 

A team that can swing good trades can improve its roster in a hurry, and I've seen deals in some of my leagues that have blown me away.  I wonder what the heck the loser in the deal was thinking, and then I ask myself why I wasn't out there the way the winner of that deal was, improving my own team instead of seeing him improve his. 

I think I give too much credit to people for understanding what they are doing, so I don't like to make an offer that I wouldn't accept if I were them.  It feels kind of slimy making such an offer, and when I do it and am rejected I feel like I've insulted the other guy's intelligence.  So, I look for win-win trades that help both teams, which are hard to find.  Yet, as I said, lots of  :shock:   types of deals seem to get made in my leagues by others, so I'm going to be less shy about trying it in the future.
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Hello, my name is Dan. :bag: I too will address this flaw in my game in 2006!! :thumbup:
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You are both in my head. Now get out!
 
I know one mistake I have made a lot is to ignore my gut and get caught up in the hype.

Example 1:

I had the 1.01 pick the year P. Manning came out and had specifically made the deal for the pick during the season prior to the end of his senior year at Tennessee. Leading up to the draft, however, I got caught up in the Ryan Leaf hype and ended up taking him instead. Do I even have to tell you how much that hurts me to have to admit?

Example 2:

In that same draft I also had the 1.12 pick and was set to take Fred Taylor. When the pick came Curtis Enis was on the board and I decided that since I played with a bunch of Chicago homers that Enis would have more trade value so I took him. As you can expect no one with half a brain (even a Bear fan) wanted to trade for Enis and I missed out a a few very productive years from the fragile one.

The point is only that we tend to forget that we aren't idiots and that we have studied the players and know what we want to do, yet somewhere between..."Hey Faulkfan...its your pick" and the time that the words tumble out of our mouths we second guess ourselves and take someone elses advice. TRUST YOUR GUT!

 
I have made a killing in dynasty leagues when everyone hoards younger guys and ignore proven players that still have several top years left. You can only win the year you are playing in, and many times the future young studs don't pan out anyway. I generally have been fortunate enough to then trade the older guys to teams thinking that the guy in question has more in the tank and trade him for a youn guy in a great situation.
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I can't believe I still get away with this. :thumbup: :thumbup:
 
Good posts thus far. I stopped reading, as listening to others opinions is one of the mistakes people make ;)

A few things come to mind.

1. Selling yourself on a player after a couple games - too small a sample size

2. Not trusting yourself. Too often a person will give up on someone they drafted or not draft someone they should because they listen to others too much. See Larry Johnson circa early 2004, and many others.

2b. Not listening to anyone else. You have to balance input / info with being a lemming.

3. Goes along with 2b, but undervaluing certain positions, especially in a flex format.

4. Bad trades, usually either through boredom or nerves.

 
Drafting the same way year-in-year-out.

I have a couple of guys in my league that will always draft 3 RBs in the first 3 rounds, regardless of who's on the board......then they draft 2WRs, then their QB. First thing, they miss out on studs at other positions (as well as value), second thing, is that I know how they are going to draft, and can tailor my draft around it.

You need to be able to adjust your strategy during the draft when things don't go as planned.

 
I think I give too much credit to people for understanding what they are doing, so I don't like to make an offer that I wouldn't accept if I were them. It feels kind of slimy making such an offer, and when I do it and am rejected I feel like I've insulted the other guy's intelligence. So, I look for win-win trades that help both teams, which are hard to find. Yet, as I said, lots of  types of deals seem to get made in my leagues by others, so I'm going to be less shy about trying it in the future.
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Problem.
2) instead of making an trade proposal, send a friendly email out to a owner you wanting to deal with, if he really wants to deal he will communicate back with you.
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Solution. The average owner is the guy that sends offers...offensive/get ready to take it in the backside offers...to anyone with an email address. He hunts with a shotgun and is just hoping to hit something. Rarely, if ever, does he drop anything. Usually, he offends most of the league and folks stop doing business with him.

The friendly, soft, casual email has a much higher kill ratio. You are hunting with a rifle. You have a direct dialogue with the prospective buyer. Prior to throwing out your offer or making any pitch you are able to identify his interest level in doing business or his potential asking price. Premature elaboration is a nasty thing in negotiations. An email, as suggested, should help you hold out and get a better asking price. This is where those shocking, how the heck did that guy pull that off/what was that guy thinking deals begin. The buying cycle is normally a little longer than usual with a series of counter proposals but you will win more often than not.

 
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In redrafts, the top mistakes I see people make are:

1. Drafting a QB too early. Fantasy football drafting involves, to me, taking the player that has the "biggest point differential potential compared to his peers" player available. Especially in the early rounds. The difference between the top QB and the #10+ QB, is just not big enough to draft a QB high. (Unless you have an aberrant year like Peyton and Culpepper a couple years ago, but there's no way to predict that).

2. Not understanding the scoring system. For example, people in PPR leagues underestimate the stud potential of guys like Tiki and Westbrook in PPR leagues. They end up drafting "name" guys like McGahee ahead of them.

3. Drafting guys based on their NFL impact as opposed to their fantasy impact. I call it the "don't draft Mike Vick in your fantasy draft" rule.

4. Ranking all previous year injuries the same. Studs that were injured the previous year have every reason to return to stud level if depending on they type of injury.

This is now called the "Steve Smith" rule. Many assumed he wouldn't be back at full strength last year because he broke his ankle - not understanding that a broken bone is WAAAAAY different than torn ligaments.

5. Not realizing that "the Wall" is real and is devastating to running backs. See: Ahman Green and Emmit Smith. When a running back loses it, it's gone.

 
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Not picking up recently hot trending players from the WW. Sometimes you have to take a risk and pick someone up the week before most other owners would, but at the same time you don't want to overpay.
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This goes along with keeping up with the news and reading daily injury info. Sam Gado was such a pickup for me last year simply because I kept up with the daily news and rumors.
 
I very seldom offer trades. Why... because I draft damn good! I draft a guy because I know he will help me. Not to trade him away!

Next thing you know right after draft all them scavengers are offering you there draft mistakes for my studs. Offering guys I intentionally passed up for a reason for my guys I didn;t pass up for a reason!

 
Chasing points.

Add: I don't do this, but I see other guys doing it... refusing to sell high when the time is right. Examples: Willie Parker, Samkon Gado, Tatum Bell etc.

Don't wait until the Broncos draft Lawrence Maroney to offer me Bell!

 
The biggest thing I try not to do is focus on player A in round B because in round C i know he'll be gone. I call it the "focus" rule, don not focus on a player.

 
6. Taking the "next best player at the position" if the guy they were targeting went just before their pick in the draft. For example, someone takes Darrell Jackson and my team needs a WR. I panic and take the next best receiver, even though another position has way better value.

I guess I'm endorsing VBD here, aren't I?

 
I see too many people taking sleepers early. Last season I got Thomas Jones absurdly late because he was a boring pick with Cedrick Benson behind him. Keenan McCardell, Jimmy Smith, Rod Smith, Keyshawn Johnson, Terry Glenn all were guys that aren't all that exciting but put up solid numbers last season and could have been had much later than a lot of "sleepers."

I also see people giving up on players too early. I'm especially bad about this. In one keeper league I drafted a backup RB that I thought was pretty talented a few years ago. The problem was he was stuck behind a borderline HOFer and getting no love from his coach. So a few weeks in, a few injuries to my team and I cut him to make room for a replacement at WR. The owner of the starting RB picked him up and was golden a few weeks later when Ricky Watters got hurt and Shaun Alexander came in to replace him :cry:

 
I very seldom offer trades. Why... because I draft damn good! I draft a guy because I know he will help me. Not to trade him away!
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so my question is then why do you draft beyond your starters(sarcasm)IF you are a GOOD Drafter then you should be able to use your late rounds to give you the depth you need to deal away some of your solid picks for STUDS that other teams reached for thus rendering their teams THIN

as an example I drafted every one of these LBs last yr in the 1st yr of our Dynasty League(16 team IDP)

Vilma (3.15 round taken)

Pierce (5.15)

Gold (14.03)

EJ Henderson (17.16)

Vrable (23.15)

Bruschi (25.15)

Crowder (2.15 rook draft)

Leroy Hill (6.03 in rook draft)

My starting WRs last yr were Steve Smith(drafted), Roy Williams(drafted) Rod Smith(Drafted)...while Roy was injured i started a 3rd RB or Scotty Vines....

this yr in the offseason I packaged CROWDER and a RB(jamal lewis) for Chad Johnson

Did i want to lose Crowder NO but I had DEPTH because i DRAFTED WELL...we start 3 LBs and I am more then fine at LB#3 with Gold/Bruschi/Hill Vrable is an RFA

 
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