What odds would you lay against these QBs finishing Top 10 in 2015? (1 Viewer)

[pizzatyme]

Having fun with a league mate and offered him 20-1 against any of the following QBs finishing top 10 in FFPC scoring with 4 point per TD.

Bortles, Alex Smith, Houston QB, Buffalo QB, Winston, and Mariotta.

Am I off my rocker? What would you be willing to offer? Or better, what are the right odds?

I just don't see the upside for any of these guys to hit top 10 status. I know anything can happen, but still.

 

[Warrior]

I'd take Winston or Mariota all day with those odds. Off the top of my head, here's what I would lay:

Winston: 10 to 1

Mariota: 12 to 1

Hoyer: 20 to 1

Bortles: 20 to 1

Smith: 30 to 1

 

[Pots]

I'd take Winston or Mariota all day with those odds.

 

[Ted Mullins]

Only thing I would be leery of is a big TD season from Jameis due to having such big targets to throw to, or a big rushing season - maybe Mariota or Tyrod Taylor if he got the job? Something like 500 Yds and 5 rush TDs moves a guy way up the board. You're probably fine though.

 

[iamkoza]

i'd give mariotta the best shot of having a Cam like lots of rushing TD's year to propel him in to the top 10

 

[TheFanatic]

Bortes may surprise...

 

[Warrior]

I'd take Winston or Mariota all day with those odds.

Ok Pots. Thanks for the contribution.

 

[maf005]

20-1 is far too high

You're talking about 15% of the league's starting qbs here. 5-1 is closer to true odds imo

 

[Uncle Grandpa]

Horrible bet if it's any of them that makes the top 10. If he has to pick one beforehand, then it makes more sense.

 

[ZWK]

From 1998-2014, 20 QBs were drafted in the first 3 picks. 5 of those 20 (25%) were top 10 fantasy QBs as rookies by PFR scoring (Luck, Griffin, Newton, V Young, P Manning). So 1 in 20 looks way too low for Winston & Mariota (especially considering that they look like opening day starters, and many of the 20 were not).

 

[CR69]

I'll put $10 on Mariota and Bortles

 

[Borden]

In theory, each has a roughly 1 in 32 chance (not odds) of finishing as QB1. So, that's a 1 in 3.2 chance of finishing in the top 10.

Brady, as of right now, is going to miss 25% of his regular season games.

Manning is old and could break down at any point. Plus, he's likely to see a decline in stats.

Every year there is a top ten QB that misses time with an injury. I'm guessing Romo but that's just me.

Then you look at some of the guys they'd have to pass to sneak into the top ten.

RG3, Cleveland QB, Gino Smith, the other guys on your list, Carr, Bradford and Palmer have to stay healthy, Foles in the StL offense, Bridgewater.

No doubt they aren't front runners to make the top 10 but even if they just stay healthy and remain the starter for all 16 games I think they have a much better chance than 20-1.

The 2 rookies, Bortles and Smith are the best bets just because they are almost all locked in as the starters. My odds would be:

Winston 3.5-1

Bortles 3.5-1

Smith 4-1

Mariota 4.5-1

Bills (any player but not combined) 6-1

Texans (same as Bills) 6-1

 

[Freelove]

I'd take Winston or Mariota all day with those odds. Off the top of my head, here's what I would lay:

Winston: 10 to 1

Mariota: 12 to 1

Hoyer: 20 to 1

Bortles: 20 to 1

Smith: 30 to 1

30 to 1 for Alex Smith, when it's two years since he was a top ten fantasy QB, and added Maclin in the offseason? I mean, you wouldn't call him a lock, but 30-1?

 

[maf005]

This thread reminds me of that game where you pick 6 teams to miss the playoffs, and 6 to make the playoffs. Seems easy right? Nope. People severely mess the odds up for this bet.

 

[Warrior]

I'd take Winston or Mariota all day with those odds. Off the top of my head, here's what I would lay:

Winston: 10 to 1

Mariota: 12 to 1

Hoyer: 20 to 1

Bortles: 20 to 1

Smith: 30 to 1

30 to 1 for Alex Smith, when it's two years since he was a top ten fantasy QB, and added Maclin in the offseason? I mean, you wouldn't call him a lock, but 30-1?

It was the very top of my head...

 

[Warrior]

In theory, each has a roughly 1 in 32 chance (not odds) of finishing as QB1. So, that's a 1 in 3.2 chance of finishing in the top 10.

And Oakland and Seattle have the same 3.5% chance of winning the Super Bowl this year, right?

 

[Bronco Billy]

In theory, each has a roughly 1 in 32 chance (not odds) of finishing as QB1. So, that's a 1 in 3.2 chance of finishing in the top 10.

And Oakland and Seattle have the same 3.5% chance of winning the Super Bowl this year, right?

That's what you got out of his response? You choose one sentence that totally misses the point he was making. You is a good reader.

 

[Freelove]

I'd take Winston or Mariota all day with those odds. Off the top of my head, here's what I would lay:

Winston: 10 to 1

Mariota: 12 to 1

Hoyer: 20 to 1

Bortles: 20 to 1

Smith: 30 to 1

30 to 1 for Alex Smith, when it's two years since he was a top ten fantasy QB, and added Maclin in the offseason? I mean, you wouldn't call him a lock, but 30-1?

It was the very top of my head...

Fair enough.

But still, given Andy Reid's history of placing QB's in the top 10 of fantasy, including Alex Smith, I think something more like 2-1 or 3-1 would make sense. Maybe even odds to break into the top half of starters, and we're really only talking about a jump to top third or so.

20-1 seem like silly odds for any QB with an assured starting gig, unless he's got a lengthy track record of absolutely horrific performance, plus really awful supporting talent.

 

[babydemon90]

Yea, not likely... But 20-1 odds? I'd put money all over that

 

[TheGrimReaper]

20-1 is far too high

You're talking about 15% of the league's starting qbs here. 5-1 is closer to true odds imo

Yes........I would put it closer to this...say btwn 5-1 and 7-1 odds.......therefore. if you two are betting money, he should be jumping on this as a "field " bet.

 

[Bri]

Having fun with a league mate and offered him 20-1 against any of the following QBs finishing top 10 in FFPC scoring with 4 point per TD.

Bortles, Alex Smith, Houston QB, Buffalo QB, Winston, and Mariotta.

Am I off my rocker? What would you be willing to offer? Or better, what are the right odds?

I just don't see the upside for any of these guys to hit top 10 status. I know anything can happen, but still.

Can I throw this back at you a minute? What do you think of these QBs WRs to throw to?

 

[ghostguy123]

I will take it at 20-1. Longshot, but that is why it pays 20-1

 

[Lucky Dolfan 81]

Having fun with a league mate and offered him 20-1 against any of the following QBs finishing top 10 in FFPC scoring with 4 point per TD.

Bortles, Alex Smith, Houston QB, Buffalo QB, Winston, and Mariotta.

Am I off my rocker? What would you be willing to offer? Or better, what are the right odds?

I just don't see the upside for any of these guys to hit top 10 status. I know anything can happen, but still.

bortles 30-1smith 20-1

Hou qb 40-1

buff qb 40-1

Winston 10-1

maritotta 20-1