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what percentage of fantasy football is luck and how much is skill? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter azcards33
- Start date
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
87.3% skill
12.7% luck
12.7% luck
A
awesomeness
Guest
Depends. The deeper the league, the more skill is required.
For your average league, i'd guess between 70-80%.
For your average league, i'd guess between 70-80%.
It's a lot like poker ... the short-term answer is more luck than skill. the long-term answer is more skill. but you can't forecast injuries. if you knew tom brady wasn't going to make it through 1 game and that you shouldn't take him in the first round, you should start playing the lottery more often.
yinzer
Footballguy
Id dont know the exact perentage, but I give you this. A player getting injured is bad luck. Posting a close to top score and losing on a given week, is chance/probability...You cant account for that
My team:
Week 1 I have the 2nd most points and lose 157.64 to 127.18 (mostly due to Turner for him, and about 21 points more than the next closest team for me)
Week 2 I have the 2nd most points and im gonna lose something like 145.8 to 142.6 (thanks to 1 pt games by LJ Smith and Nick Barnett! at least TO and MB3 know what to do on MNF)
Maybe I should put this in the venting thread, but I love my team and Im 0-2...If I dont make the playoffs Id still be surprised at this point, but what I think will make me #2 in points and being 0-2 pretty much sucks
My team:
Week 1 I have the 2nd most points and lose 157.64 to 127.18 (mostly due to Turner for him, and about 21 points more than the next closest team for me)
Week 2 I have the 2nd most points and im gonna lose something like 145.8 to 142.6 (thanks to 1 pt games by LJ Smith and Nick Barnett! at least TO and MB3 know what to do on MNF)
Maybe I should put this in the venting thread, but I love my team and Im 0-2...If I dont make the playoffs Id still be surprised at this point, but what I think will make me #2 in points and being 0-2 pretty much sucks
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JamesTheScot
Footballguy
The question of skill only matters in the context of your relative skill compared to your competition's. Skill only makes a difference if there is a disparity in skill across the spectrum of the owners in your league.
In my league, we've all been doing this for years and there really isn't a dime's worth of skill difference in all 10 of us. In this league, luck matters much more than skill. We figure it at about 80% of our results. We all have different opinions about players' expected production, but we all hit some and miss some so in the end it basically washes out...especially over the course of a few years.
I was down on LJ and more up on Portis. I was right. But I was also up on Portis over both FWP and R.Bush, and so far I've been wrong on that as well. The Pit line doesn't look near as bad as i thought they would, but the KC line does. How do I reconcile that between luck and skill?
List your top 10 RB's now for total points at the end of the season. If it's any different than the list you had before draft, you're admitting you were wrong then or you're wrong now. Is that luck or skill that's made a difference? Think long and hard about that. Some say you can predict injuries and some say you can't. If you can, it's an issue skill, rather than luck.
In my league, we've all been doing this for years and there really isn't a dime's worth of skill difference in all 10 of us. In this league, luck matters much more than skill. We figure it at about 80% of our results. We all have different opinions about players' expected production, but we all hit some and miss some so in the end it basically washes out...especially over the course of a few years.
I was down on LJ and more up on Portis. I was right. But I was also up on Portis over both FWP and R.Bush, and so far I've been wrong on that as well. The Pit line doesn't look near as bad as i thought they would, but the KC line does. How do I reconcile that between luck and skill?
List your top 10 RB's now for total points at the end of the season. If it's any different than the list you had before draft, you're admitting you were wrong then or you're wrong now. Is that luck or skill that's made a difference? Think long and hard about that. Some say you can predict injuries and some say you can't. If you can, it's an issue skill, rather than luck.
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Challenge Everything
Footballguy
Might want to check out the local aquarium.
None_More_Black
Footballguy
FF is like Poker, the more people that know what they are doing the more luck involved. Experienced league you need a lot of luck to win, work league, not so much.
SteelerMurf
Footballguy
The percentage of luck far outweighs skill.
When a guy scores 65 and wins while a guy scores 120 and loses. That's luck.
When Brady gets hurt (I don't own him) that's luck.
When it comes down to needing your QB on Sunday night but they play in a monsoon which essentially shuts them down. That's luck.
When your opponents QB loses a fumble, but the call is reversed and he then throws a TD followed by a 2 pt conversion. That's luck.
When your WR is streaking into an easy TD and he throws the ball down missing out on 6 pts and the ball is placed at the 1 with your opponent having the RB who comes in for the TD (12 pt swing). That's luck.
When your star WR now has a guy with only high school starting experience throwing him the rock cause of an injury to the first string QB who hasn't missed a game in 7 years, that's luck.
We could go on, but this is just the first 2 weeks of the year.
When a guy scores 65 and wins while a guy scores 120 and loses. That's luck.
When Brady gets hurt (I don't own him) that's luck.
When it comes down to needing your QB on Sunday night but they play in a monsoon which essentially shuts them down. That's luck.
When your opponents QB loses a fumble, but the call is reversed and he then throws a TD followed by a 2 pt conversion. That's luck.
When your WR is streaking into an easy TD and he throws the ball down missing out on 6 pts and the ball is placed at the 1 with your opponent having the RB who comes in for the TD (12 pt swing). That's luck.
When your star WR now has a guy with only high school starting experience throwing him the rock cause of an injury to the first string QB who hasn't missed a game in 7 years, that's luck.
We could go on, but this is just the first 2 weeks of the year.
Liquid Tension
Footballguy
The type of league matters and the type of owners matter in coming up with an answer.
In a dynasty league, the skill factor is at least 80 % skill and 20% luck and the longer stretch of time you look at, the more the skill will show. In a keeper league, I would say 50-50.
The stats move more towards luck in both situations when the skill set between owners is more similar, for example, if everyone is a shark more luck is involved.
In a dynasty league, the skill factor is at least 80 % skill and 20% luck and the longer stretch of time you look at, the more the skill will show. In a keeper league, I would say 50-50.
The stats move more towards luck in both situations when the skill set between owners is more similar, for example, if everyone is a shark more luck is involved.
analog_hiss
Footballguy
1/3 draft
1/3 team management throughout the season
1/3 luck
1/3 team management throughout the season
1/3 luck
Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
It's a hard question to put a number on, but, for the most part, your skill is what puts you in a position to take advantage of the luck that comes your way.
Topes
Footballguy
I tend to believe it's a lot more luck than folks on these boards are willing to accept. So many fester and forecast all summer and spring in their fantasy dungeons. Though they'll outwardly deny it, such behavior is predicated on the notion that the future is knowable. It's not. Yes, many of these same owners will say that they're preparuing for stuff like injuries and the like. Indeed, they are. But the root of the behavior of many is still that silly notion that they can control the outcomes by knowing more. It's that notion which forces many into denial about how much truly is luck.
I'd tend to think the above assessment is about right, with a HUGE caveat: LUCK is a factor in both the draft and team management. It's not only a factor for the astute footballguy. It's a factor for the guppies, as well. It's still very possible to be outdrafted by some lucky bozo with a USA Today in hand. None of us comes out of our draft with all our sleepers on our teams. None of our teams are large enough. Those players get distributed to others, if drafted.
There you have it. 50% LUCK!
Topes
Footballguy
I tend to believe it's a lot more luck than folks on these boards are willing to accept. So many fester and forecast all summer and spring in their fantasy dungeons. Though they'll outwardly deny it, such behavior is predicated on the notion that the future is knowable. It's not. Yes, many of these same owners will say that they're preparuing for stuff like injuries and the like. Indeed, they are. But the root of the behavior of many is still that silly notion that they can control the outcomes by knowing more. It's that notion which forces many into denial about how much truly is luck.
I'd tend to think the above assessment is about right, with a HUGE caveat: LUCK is a factor in both the draft and team management. It's not only a factor for the astute footballguy. It's a factor for the guppies, as well. It's still very possible to be outdrafted by some lucky bozo with a USA Today in hand. None of us comes out of our draft with all our sleepers on our teams. None of our teams are large enough. Those players get distributed to others, if drafted.
There you have it. 50% LUCK!
FantasyTrader
Footballguy
The problem is, it's highly improbable all of these things happened to ONE team. There a good chance it's spread out across 10-16 teams. If fluky good thing happens to you and fluky good thing happens to me, there was a whole lot of luck involved in our end of week scores, but it may have played a very small role in the end results.
analog_hiss
Footballguy
I agree. Good point.
smackdaddies
Footballguy
Exactly.Skill means the majority of the years you have a very competitive teamLuck comes in with injuries and often hitting the one or two league leaders (One year it is S Alexander, then LT, then Brady and or Moss, then ?????)
slayer666
Footballguy
acme
Footballguy
this makes sense to me. i like the comparison and think its fairly accurate. good answer.
I once proposed an experiment to test this theory. Each week I'd have a totally random team (QB, 2 RBs, 3WRs, K, D) selected (by rolling a dice or other random method) from a list of the top 20 or so players at each position. I'd then post that team. Then I'd invite "sharks" to select the best team they could not using any of the players on the randonly selected team. Then after the games, we'd score each team using a basic scoring system and keep track of the total points over the course of the season.
The experiment was never performed because of all the work involved, but it seems to me the only tru way to really determine how much of a factor luck plays in fantasy football. BTW, if anyone wants to try that experiment, they are free to do wo.
The experiment was never performed because of all the work involved, but it seems to me the only tru way to really determine how much of a factor luck plays in fantasy football. BTW, if anyone wants to try that experiment, they are free to do wo.
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In head to head matchups, there is a lot of luck involved.
When you win with the 2nd least points or lose with the 2nd most points, that's just luck.
When one guy loses 125-120 when another guy wins the same week 51-50, I would say that the guy who put up 120 points has a better team than the guy who put up 51. But it doesn't matter in the standings.
It should all even out in the end, though...and the skill should rise to the top.
When you win with the 2nd least points or lose with the 2nd most points, that's just luck.
When one guy loses 125-120 when another guy wins the same week 51-50, I would say that the guy who put up 120 points has a better team than the guy who put up 51. But it doesn't matter in the standings.
It should all even out in the end, though...and the skill should rise to the top.
Hoss_Cartwright
Footballguy
I scored 140 this week and lost. Having said that, it takes more skill than luck to make the playoffs, but more luck than skill to win a title.
Archie Bunker
Footballguy
50/50.
On Luck:
I'm 1-1. We have 3 4-team divisions and oru first 3 games are within the division. If my schedule was any other combination, I'd be 2-0. Likewise, last year I was hit early by injuries but always seemed to play a team that had a bad week.
On skill:
I drafted Chris Johnson. About half the run muttered, "%^&*" when I did, indicating I got him at just the right time. I also waited to draft a QB and went with the Aaron Rodgers/Jake Delhomme combo later in the draft after superstars like Matt Schaub & David Garrard were off the board.
On Luck:
I'm 1-1. We have 3 4-team divisions and oru first 3 games are within the division. If my schedule was any other combination, I'd be 2-0. Likewise, last year I was hit early by injuries but always seemed to play a team that had a bad week.
On skill:
I drafted Chris Johnson. About half the run muttered, "%^&*" when I did, indicating I got him at just the right time. I also waited to draft a QB and went with the Aaron Rodgers/Jake Delhomme combo later in the draft after superstars like Matt Schaub & David Garrard were off the board.
I'd agree with that.. Two years in a row I have gone into a week 15 playoff having won 8 matchups in a row and top 2 in pts. Both times played a team in the playoffs that was clearly inferior. Both times, unbenchable studs like Owens, Gates, etc have had their worst games on Week 15 and my team has tanked... There's no skill there, it's just luck....This year, lost 1st game after tying my opponent- in a tiebreak, lost this week, because my opponent with a minute left in the Denver game needed Cutler to exactly throw for 350 yds, a td and 2pt conversion to beat me by 1 pt... We all know what happened.... Luck...That being said, the same owners in our league tend to be successful year after year, so there is skill involved-- drafting, management, but when you get down to it, you throw random players out there and your top 5 WR can be outscored by a 3rd string Wr who breaks free for a long Td... I guess that's the fun of it in some ways..
FantasyTrader
Footballguy
Also, I think the % of luck it takes to win has been steadily rising for the past decade and the % of skill, equally decreasing over that timespan. Many people here have already given the analogy of FF being similar to poker. I think that's accurate.
Another way FF is similar to poker is that 7-9 yrs ago when the poker boom happened, you immediately saw dozens of websites and teaching aids helping people quickly learn the skill/art of playing. Things like Pot odds, pot equity, fold equity, etc. - things that people who were skillful at poker had learned to do (almost intuitively on their own years ago) were now available to people who had never played before.
As FF continues growing in popularity, we're seeing more and more websites popping up who are all in a race to do one thing better than anyone else: allow someone to skillfully play FF with the least amount of time spent learning as possible. You can now buy DraftKits and software that, with just a week of planning ahead your draft can get you on par with those out there toiling on message boards and strategy sites 365 days a year.
I dare say, we're less than 5-6 years away from software that integrates with your fantasy league and details move by move what you should do to give you the highest statistical probability of winning your league. Heck, we're already halfway there really.
At some point, it will become a game of 97-99% luck and the FF boom will be over. All of us website owners will kill the very thing we spend thousands of hours cultivating because only the diehards will be left that are willing to kill time shuffling players and dollar bills back and forth between each other. Yikes, I didn't realize I thought this until I started typing. Talk about a glass half empty.
Another way FF is similar to poker is that 7-9 yrs ago when the poker boom happened, you immediately saw dozens of websites and teaching aids helping people quickly learn the skill/art of playing. Things like Pot odds, pot equity, fold equity, etc. - things that people who were skillful at poker had learned to do (almost intuitively on their own years ago) were now available to people who had never played before.
As FF continues growing in popularity, we're seeing more and more websites popping up who are all in a race to do one thing better than anyone else: allow someone to skillfully play FF with the least amount of time spent learning as possible. You can now buy DraftKits and software that, with just a week of planning ahead your draft can get you on par with those out there toiling on message boards and strategy sites 365 days a year.
I dare say, we're less than 5-6 years away from software that integrates with your fantasy league and details move by move what you should do to give you the highest statistical probability of winning your league. Heck, we're already halfway there really.
At some point, it will become a game of 97-99% luck and the FF boom will be over. All of us website owners will kill the very thing we spend thousands of hours cultivating because only the diehards will be left that are willing to kill time shuffling players and dollar bills back and forth between each other. Yikes, I didn't realize I thought this until I started typing. Talk about a glass half empty.
Enforcer
Footballguy
sartre
Footballguy
It absolutely depends on the league parameters.
If you want greater emphasis on skill:
Auction format over lottery serpentine
Blind bid auction waivers
Deeper rosters
Larger starting lineup
More owners (e.g., 12 or 14 team league vs 10 team)
Keepers/dynasty
Double even triple-headers
In casual 10-team leagues with small rosters, I'd say the luck factor is nearly 90%. It is very easy nowadays to get a decent Top200 list for your draft, and projections to assist you in deciding your starting lineup.
If you want greater emphasis on skill:
Auction format over lottery serpentine
Blind bid auction waivers
Deeper rosters
Larger starting lineup
More owners (e.g., 12 or 14 team league vs 10 team)
Keepers/dynasty
Double even triple-headers
In casual 10-team leagues with small rosters, I'd say the luck factor is nearly 90%. It is very easy nowadays to get a decent Top200 list for your draft, and projections to assist you in deciding your starting lineup.
cubbie5150
Footballguy
My primary $$ league, that has been in existence now for 13 years: 80% skill, 20% luck (pretty much the same owners over the years; we've all learned a lot during this time)
My secondary league that has been in existence for 3 years now: 50% skill, 50% luck (half the league is comprised of owners relatively new to FF; I think it'll be a "good" league in a few years)
My secondary league that has been in existence for 3 years now: 50% skill, 50% luck (half the league is comprised of owners relatively new to FF; I think it'll be a "good" league in a few years)
Routilla
Footballguy
This is the correct answer.
roadkill1292
Footballguy
I've got cumulative won-loss records for every team in my league going back 17 years and they make one thing very clear: some people play this game better than others do, at least over the long haul. But, as others have noted about poker, luck plays a huge role game-to-game and even over the course of an entire season.
FantasyTrader
Footballguy
Did you mean 80% luck - 20% skill?
Mookie Blaylock
Footballguy
Draft - 80(S) 20(L)
Season - 60(S) 40(L)
Season - 60(S) 40(L)
Mr. Mojo
Footballguy
Pyscho Wife
Footballguy
Head to Head is where a lot of luck comes into play.
You can score a lot of points and still lose due to being matched up against another team that has a really good week where another team might get a win but scored a lot fewer points than you did in your loss.
You can score a lot of points and still lose due to being matched up against another team that has a really good week where another team might get a win but scored a lot fewer points than you did in your loss.
Neil Beaufort Zod
Footballguy
Fantasy football is
70 percent preparedness
20 percent luck
10 percent skill
Doing your homework is not a skill. Putting time into learning depth charts, injury histories, etc. is not a skill. Visiting the forum is not a skill. But if you do those things, a new player is about 70 percent of the way toward being right up there with everyone else.
Luck does the most to separate players at that point (DeSean Jackson's goof, Brady's injury) because it's not predictable. The league schedule is also a random event, since I could take almost any 0-2 team, play with their schedule and make them 2-0 (and vice-versa).
The final 10 percent is the skill-- the ability to manage trades, maintian dialogue with other owners, stay calm when it's easy to panic, and somehow be patient and bold in your decisions at the same time. That 10 percent is a small amount of the total game, but it's what separates perennial success stories from one-year wonders.
That elusive 10 percent is what poker players use to put themsleves in the money and fantasy owners to remain in contention for titles. But really, with a little luck and some preparation, anyone is 90 percent of the way to where they are. It's a game with little skill involved, but that skill goes a long way toward determining the winners.
70 percent preparedness
20 percent luck
10 percent skill
Doing your homework is not a skill. Putting time into learning depth charts, injury histories, etc. is not a skill. Visiting the forum is not a skill. But if you do those things, a new player is about 70 percent of the way toward being right up there with everyone else.
Luck does the most to separate players at that point (DeSean Jackson's goof, Brady's injury) because it's not predictable. The league schedule is also a random event, since I could take almost any 0-2 team, play with their schedule and make them 2-0 (and vice-versa).
The final 10 percent is the skill-- the ability to manage trades, maintian dialogue with other owners, stay calm when it's easy to panic, and somehow be patient and bold in your decisions at the same time. That 10 percent is a small amount of the total game, but it's what separates perennial success stories from one-year wonders.
That elusive 10 percent is what poker players use to put themsleves in the money and fantasy owners to remain in contention for titles. But really, with a little luck and some preparation, anyone is 90 percent of the way to where they are. It's a game with little skill involved, but that skill goes a long way toward determining the winners.
lyon812
Footballguy
Well said. I'd include something else in "skill" though--being able to somewhat accurately predict what players to start each week. People who benched Turner after Week 1, for example, or who consistently are able to analyze matchups and make wise decisions. That separates people.
fantasysharkctb
Footballguy
50/50... Say what you want about knowing more than you leaguemates, but the fact is, when you play on any site that ranks the players in order from greatest to least, Luck is huge.
theplayer11
Footballguy
I think there is more skill involved in drafting players that will break out over other players ranked higher. I find that too many draft by different site projections and miss out on players who will outperform them. It's hard to go against rankings that you see in front of you at draft time, but was there really any doubt that Barber would be a beast in the high powered Dallas offense and that the Rams offense would struggle?...yet how many drafted Barber before SJax? Who drafted LJ high, just because he was projected late first round? I believe that leagues are won during the draft for those that aren't afraid to go with their gut over some rankings sheet.
gman74
Footballguy
I agree I have 2 teams both are 3rd out of 12 in total points but have a total record of 1-3. Played the top scorer in all 3 losses. My 1 win was because I was the top scorer. I see it as if you score in the top 1/3 of the league it is skill to get there. Total points is where the skill is not the record.
scancellare
Footballguy
This is absolutely the correct answer. /thread
sholditch
Footballguy
I'd say the reverse of this is true...
Rounders
Footballguy
Here's a poll I asked the Pool in Oct 2006
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=283109
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=283109
ScoobyDoo
Footballguy
LOLSure. Whatever you say.
CalBear
Footballguy
If the game were 100% luck, a mechanism requiring no skill (random picking) would win just as often as the most skilled player. If it were 50% luck, the most skilled player would win 75% of the time over the random algorithm, and if it were 0% luck, the most skilled player would win every time.
So let's think about a realistic algorithm which requires no skill. You'd draft based strictly on last year's fantasy points scored; since you don't know about VBD, you can't draft by position preferentially. Let's give the algorithm a chance by drafting starters before backups, so you won't choose three QBs in the first three rounds. Let's figure on a middle draft pick. This year your draft would have gone something like:
1.06: Brady
2.07: B.Edwards
3.06: B.Marshall
4.07: Mason Crosby
5.06: San Diego D
6.07: Ronnie Brown
7.06: Lendale White
8.07: Owen Daniels
Lineup decisions also have to require no skill, so you either always start the people in the order you drafted them, or you start the player who scored the most points last week, or YTD.
Forgetting the injury to Brady for the moment, if this team were in the league with the most skilled fantasy football player in the world, how often do you think it would beat that person? 50% of the time? No way. 25%? Almost certainly not. Maybe 10% of the time, I'd guess. That puts the luck factor at something like 20%.
Now, between equally skilled players, luck decides a lot of contests in any game with an element of luck, but that doesn't mean the game is primarily luck.
So let's think about a realistic algorithm which requires no skill. You'd draft based strictly on last year's fantasy points scored; since you don't know about VBD, you can't draft by position preferentially. Let's give the algorithm a chance by drafting starters before backups, so you won't choose three QBs in the first three rounds. Let's figure on a middle draft pick. This year your draft would have gone something like:
1.06: Brady
2.07: B.Edwards
3.06: B.Marshall
4.07: Mason Crosby
5.06: San Diego D
6.07: Ronnie Brown
7.06: Lendale White
8.07: Owen Daniels
Lineup decisions also have to require no skill, so you either always start the people in the order you drafted them, or you start the player who scored the most points last week, or YTD.
Forgetting the injury to Brady for the moment, if this team were in the league with the most skilled fantasy football player in the world, how often do you think it would beat that person? 50% of the time? No way. 25%? Almost certainly not. Maybe 10% of the time, I'd guess. That puts the luck factor at something like 20%.
Now, between equally skilled players, luck decides a lot of contests in any game with an element of luck, but that doesn't mean the game is primarily luck.
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