what percentage of fantasy football is luck and how much is skill? (1 Viewer)

[benbadman]

50% skill (drafting, risk management in player selection, i would include injury preparedness here--ie drafting Brady thus neglecting backup QB until every other team has 2-3 QBs selected, thats a choice of strategy/skill made, you could have easily taken Rodgers, etc in Round 9-10 to backup your rd1 QB)

25% team management (playing matchups, benching your early picks to utilize reserves, even in week 1 & 2!)

25% luck (i.e. SCHEDULE, playing the Michael Turner owner in week 1 instead of week 2; when your WR is tackled at the 2 and a RB vultures the TD next play, etc.)

 

[Pigskin Fanatic]

It's like picking up a girl at the bar. It takes skills to get her to talk to you, but then it takes some luck for her to go home with you.

In the beginning...

It takes skills to prepare for a fantasy draft.

It takes way more skills if your league is keeper and even more so in a dynasty versus a redraft league. The difference is huge.

It takes skills to pick up the right players on waiver in the first 2 - 3 weeks of the season.

Then comes the waiting...

It takes a crapload of luck for your players to stay healthy and/or stay out of jail the rest of the season for 10 - 13 weeks.

It takes luck in matchup during your playoffs, the strong opponents could have one bad week before they play you since most fantasy playoffs are single elimination.

Basically you set yourself up for a good season and hope for the best. I'd say it's just about 50-50, although the luck part takes up most of the season in terms of time.

 

[HoTnickZ]

Ah the yearly luck vs skill thread, I missed you.

Total points would be so much less exciting, although a separate prize for total points would be a good way of offsetting bad H2H luck.

 

[FantasyTrader]

Ah the yearly luck vs skill thread, I missed you.Total points would be so much less exciting, although a separate prize for total points would be a good way of offsetting bad H2H luck.

Don't knock TP until you've tried it. Granted, I cut my teeth on TP 14 years ago so I'm likely biased - but I've played TP and H2H and MUCH prefer TP. Playing clear through to the SB instead of the fantasy season ending in week 16 - love it!

 

[thenipper]

If it is not skill then why are people spending so much time in these forums and on this website?

Sure, there are sometimes luck comes in. But make your own luck! This week you might have lost a game due to luck but over the long haul of the season the skilled game managers win more games.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

If it is not skill then why are people spending so much time in these forums and on this website?

Sure, there are sometimes luck comes in. But make your own luck! This week you might have lost a game due to luck but over the long haul of the season the skilled game managers win more games.

It doesn't take skill to visit a website. People come here because it's a fun hobby. Luck and skill are what seperate educated players (the ones that have put in the time to understand the game and players). They're small parts of the overall game, but they determine the outcomes to a great degree.With the wealth of information out there today, I think a lot of people confuse knowledge with skill. Making a great wiver wire pickup because you knew somebody was injured first or a coach made them the "starter" isn't skill. It could help you win, but it's not a skill.

 

[FantasyTrader]

If it is not skill then why are people spending so much time in these forums and on this website?

Sure, there are sometimes luck comes in. But make your own luck! This week you might have lost a game due to luck but over the long haul of the season the skilled game managers win more games.

It doesn't take skill to visit a website. People come here because it's a fun hobby. Luck and skill are what seperate educated players (the ones that have put in the time to understand the game and players). They're small parts of the overall game, but they determine the outcomes to a great degree.With the wealth of information out there today, I think a lot of people confuse knowledge with skill. Making a great wiver wire pickup because you knew somebody was injured first or a coach made them the "starter" isn't skill. It could help you win, but it's not a skill.

Neal, you're "technically" correct by differentiating between preparation, skill and luck - but for the purpose of the conversation skill vs. luck, you're needlessly muddying the waters. By the letter of the law, according to your definition there's no such thing as skill at all (it's ALL preperation vs. luck). You name me a FF skill and I can twist it into why it's not skill at all - rather preperation.

If I start player A over player B: by your definition it's not skill - my willingness to read as much as I could about player matchups, weather, etc. is what helped me arrive at that conclusion. etc. etc.

What you call preperation, I lump in with skill. Because few people are willing to go to such great lengths to learn as much as they can to improve.

 

[Chaka]

It requires a lot of skill to be sure but more luck is needed than most here are willing to admit.

 

[proninja]

It's 95% luck, assuming you play in leagues with somewhat competent people.

 

[cubbie5150]

My primary $$ league, that has been in existence now for 13 years: 80% skill, 20% luck (pretty much the same owners over the years; we've all learned a lot during this time)My secondary league that has been in existence for 3 years now: 50% skill, 50% luck (half the league is comprised of owners relatively new to FF; I think it'll be a "good" league in a few years)

Did you mean 80% luck - 20% skill?

Ooops; yes, got them reversed.....

 

[YoUnG GuNz]

After two weeks I'm 0-2 and have the 3rd most points in my league.

It's very much 75-80% luck.

 

[FantasyTrader]

After two weeks I'm 0-2 and have the 3rd most points in my league.It's very much 75-80% luck.

0-2 and 3rd most pts. in your league!?!?!?!?!? How is that even possible!?!?!?!?

 

[coolnerd]

I agree that this comes up every year at least a couple of times, but the thing that seems to differ from when i read about poker, blackjack other forms of gambling, is the notion of managing luck...i.e. how do I play a particular league or game with the idea that good or bad luck can and does happen.

A simple example is figuring out where do you draft a back-up QB when drafting Brady, especially considering he had a record of performance and not getting hurt. Do you mange this by thinking of injury in normal terms or hold off another couple of rounds because he had "never" been injuried.

 

[Liquid Tension]

People are not even taking into account trading which is critical skill in the game...understanding value from trading.

 

[avoiding injuries]

80% luck

20% printing your draft list off the internet.

 

[YoUnG GuNz]

After two weeks I'm 0-2 and have the 3rd most points in my league.It's very much 75-80% luck.

0-2 and 3rd most pts. in your league!?!?!?!?!? How is that even possible!?!?!?!?In week 1 I scored the 4th most and played the guy with the 2nd most. In week 2 I had a lineup of Rodgers, Westbrook, Forte, LJ, Fitz, Holmes, Winslow, Crosby, Pitt D and scored the second most points. Needless to say very upset I started LJ.

In week 1 I scored the 4th most and played the guy with the 2nd most. In week 2 I had a lineup of Rodgers, Westbrook, Forte, LJ, Fitz, Holmes, Winslow, Crosby, Pitt D and scored the second most points. Needless to say very upset I started LJ.

 

[Black]

When I win, skill.

When I lose, luck (the bad kind).

 

[sartre]

80% luck20% printing your draft list off the internet.

Yep, I remember the days when everyone used the FFB magazines for cheatsheets, before the preponderance of FFB info on the web. There was definitely some skill involved because you had to stay on top of developments between the date your mag was published and the date of your draft. You had to consider how differences in your scoring rules might alter player rankings. You had to watch the preseason games and make assessments. Now, the only real skill required is the ability to use the internet. Anyone can plop down a few bucks for a FBG subscription, download the Draft Dominator, and use the FBG weekly cheatsheets to set their lineup. Or you could use tools from one of another dozen sites. Current, competitive information is available at the click of a mouse.

 

[hellz_fireflies]

The skill is the draft 25%.

Once the games start everything else is luck 75%.

 

[CalBear]

80% luck20% printing your draft list off the internet.

Yep, I remember the days when everyone used the FFB magazines for cheatsheets, before the preponderance of FFB info on the web. There was definitely some skill involved because you had to stay on top of developments between the date your mag was published and the date of your draft. You had to consider how differences in your scoring rules might alter player rankings. You had to watch the preseason games and make assessments. Now, the only real skill required is the ability to use the internet. Anyone can plop down a few bucks for a FBG subscription, download the Draft Dominator, and use the FBG weekly cheatsheets to set their lineup. Or you could use tools from one of another dozen sites. Current, competitive information is available at the click of a mouse.

That doesn't mean the game lacks skill; it means you can use someone else's skill instead of your own.

 

[sartre]

80% luck20% printing your draft list off the internet.

Yep, I remember the days when everyone used the FFB magazines for cheatsheets, before the preponderance of FFB info on the web. There was definitely some skill involved because you had to stay on top of developments between the date your mag was published and the date of your draft. You had to consider how differences in your scoring rules might alter player rankings. You had to watch the preseason games and make assessments. Now, the only real skill required is the ability to use the internet. Anyone can plop down a few bucks for a FBG subscription, download the Draft Dominator, and use the FBG weekly cheatsheets to set their lineup. Or you could use tools from one of another dozen sites. Current, competitive information is available at the click of a mouse.

That doesn't mean the game lacks skill; it means you can use someone else's skill instead of your own.

Semantics, as no one plays this game in a vacuum.

 

[Ed Wood]

I also waited to draft a QB...later in the draft after superstars like Matt Schaub & David Garrard were off the board.

Stifle!!

 

[JamesTheScot]

Also, I think the % of luck it takes to win has been steadily rising for the past decade and the % of skill, equally decreasing over that timespan. Many people here have already given the analogy of FF being similar to poker. I think that's accurate. Another way FF is similar to poker is that 7-9 yrs ago when the poker boom happened, you immediately saw dozens of websites and teaching aids helping people quickly learn the skill/art of playing. Things like Pot odds, pot equity, fold equity, etc. - things that people who were skillful at poker had learned to do (almost intuitively on their own years ago) were now available to people who had never played before.As FF continues growing in popularity, we're seeing more and more websites popping up who are all in a race to do one thing better than anyone else: allow someone to skillfully play FF with the least amount of time spent learning as possible. You can now buy DraftKits and software that, with just a week of planning ahead your draft can get you on par with those out there toiling on message boards and strategy sites 365 days a year. I dare say, we're less than 5-6 years away from software that integrates with your fantasy league and details move by move what you should do to give you the highest statistical probability of winning your league. Heck, we're already halfway there really. At some point, it will become a game of 97-99% luck and the FF boom will be over. All of us website owners will kill the very thing we spend thousands of hours cultivating because only the diehards will be left that are willing to kill time shuffling players and dollar bills back and forth between each other. Yikes, I didn't realize I thought this until I started typing. Talk about a glass half empty.

Great post!But it being mostly luck is not the end for fantasy football. People still play slots and roulette in Vegas. People are still going to play fantasy football. We use H2H knowing that it imparts a greater impact due to luck than does a total points league.But that H2H excitement each week is worth it. Luck is always entertaining and exciting. If the game were reduced to 100% skill, that would kill the game. Everything would be predictable and those that know they are going to lose stop playing.

 

[Riffraff]

Frame of reference.Self = skillOthers = luckSame thing goes through their minds when referencing you. To them, you were the lucky one and they are skillful.

100% skill if I win. 100% luck if you do.

New year, same topic. Same correct answer.

 

[Jersey35]

Fantasy football is 70 percent preparedness20 percent luck10 percent skillDoing your homework is not a skill. Putting time into learning depth charts, injury histories, etc. is not a skill. Visiting the forum is not a skill. But if you do those things, a new player is about 70 percent of the way toward being right up there with everyone else.Luck does the most to separate players at that point (DeSean Jackson's goof, Brady's injury) because it's not predictable. The league schedule is also a random event, since I could take almost any 0-2 team, play with their schedule and make them 2-0 (and vice-versa). The final 10 percent is the skill-- the ability to manage trades, maintian dialogue with other owners, stay calm when it's easy to panic, and somehow be patient and bold in your decisions at the same time. That 10 percent is a small amount of the total game, but it's what separates perennial success stories from one-year wonders. That elusive 10 percent is what poker players use to put themsleves in the money and fantasy owners to remain in contention for titles. But really, with a little luck and some preparation, anyone is 90 percent of the way to where they are. It's a game with little skill involved, but that skill goes a long way toward determining the winners.

Very, very The game is mostly being prepared and luck, but that 10% skill is the most important component, because it is what elevates the best and most consistent owners. My goal is always (and only) to make the playoffs. If I can do that - something I feel I can control - I'll let the fates decide where I fall. In my eight years of dynasty league (and the 2 years prior in redrafts), I've missed the playoffs twice. I've won it all three times. A big part of the reason is that I'm knowledgeable and prepared. I understand the rules of the league better than EVERYONE else. That's not a skill. What is a skill, however, is knowing how to make trades and avoiding panic drops. How to draft. How to avoid likely bust players. Playing the percentages. Understanding the true value of a 1st round drat pick.Preparedness and skill has earned me a playoff berth 8 out of 10 years. It was mostly luck that won me three championships in those eight playoff appearances.Oh, and a subscription to footballguys.com is not skill - but it certainly HELPS!**Edit to add:After reading my post it sounds like I'm trying to pump myself up - I'm not. My point is that if everything was luck, then success would be completely random. The thing is that luck, good or bad, happens to everyone in the league, and over time, it all evens out. What you have left is how well you prepared to take advantage of good luck, minimize bad luck - and the skill to put your plans into action.