What player is the safest bet to finish #1 at their position? (1 Viewer)

[matttyl]

Discussion going on in my league about this - typical standard non-PPR scoring with standard IDP scoring as well.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

If we're talking year end point total: Calvin. If we're talking PPG: Gronk.

 

[matttyl]

If we're talking year end point total: Calvin. If we're talking PPG: Gronk.

I guess I should clarify for this. Most points at their position. Remember, defensive players included here.

Interesting to see first 4 picks are each for a different player!

 

[gandalas]

I can't believe that Rodgers is getting so many votes over Brees. Brees has finished as QB1 the past 2 years in a row (Rodgers was #2 both years). What makes people think that Rodgers will pass him up this year?

I voted Brees, but after re-thinking, Calvin is probably the best bet of anyone to finish #1 at their position.

 

[wodahSShadow]

Graham, hands down. Dez and AJG are much bigger threats to Calvin than a broken-down Gronk or Hernandez...Too much competition at QB and RB -- could see at least 5 different players at each position end up being #1.

 

[Shutout]

Graham, hands down. Dez and AJG are much bigger threats to Calvin than a broken-down Gronk or Hernandez...Too much competition at QB and RB -- could see at least 5 different players at each position end up being #1.

That's my take on it as well, although I did not see it was NON-PPR when I voted. But overall, if Gronk misses any time at all, it's hard to not like Graham vs. the Field. Calvin would be my second option but I think he has some serious competition this year in Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall, and perhaps AJ Green and Julio Jones.

 

[ghostguy123]

Graham, then Calvin, then it gets hard but I say brees

 

[matttyl]

Graham, hands down. Dez and AJG are much bigger threats to Calvin than a broken-down Gronk or Hernandez...Too much competition at QB and RB -- could see at least 5 different players at each position end up being #1.

That's my take on it as well, although I did not see it was NON-PPR when I voted. But overall, if Gronk misses any time at all, it's hard to not like Graham vs. the Field. Calvin would be my second option but I think he has some serious competition this year in Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall, and perhaps AJ Green and Julio Jones.

And who's Watt's competition?! Last year he OBLITERATED all other DLs, and most of the LBs as well! He could have a 20-30% drop in his numbers and still finish #1. I can't say the same for any offensive player with all the competition at each position.

 

[Ghost Rider]

If you told me that Gronk would play 16 games, or even just 14, I would say him, but you cannot, so I think Megatron is the safest bet.

 

[Shutout]

Graham, hands down. Dez and AJG are much bigger threats to Calvin than a broken-down Gronk or Hernandez...Too much competition at QB and RB -- could see at least 5 different players at each position end up being #1.

That's my take on it as well, although I did not see it was NON-PPR when I voted. But overall, if Gronk misses any time at all, it's hard to not like Graham vs. the Field. Calvin would be my second option but I think he has some serious competition this year in Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall, and perhaps AJ Green and Julio Jones.

And who's Watt's competition?! Last year he OBLITERATED all other DLs, and most of the LBs as well! He could have a 20-30% drop in his numbers and still finish #1. I can't say the same for any offensive player with all the competition at each position.

He's obviously the favorite but you know how it is with DEs, they never seem to pull back to back dominating performances. Going into last year, everyone would have said JPP and Watt "might" have been on the nominee list. The year before that, it would have been Allen and JPP "might have been on the nominee list.

Its just the way it goes at the position. When you are that much of a disruptive force, the following year, coaches have spent a lot of time looking at you and planning to take that away. Plus, sometimes teams just play particular divisions that are ripe for the sacking and the numbers get blown up. I would definitely pick Watt as a heavy favorite but then again it wouldn't surprise me one bit if Chandler Jones ended up with the #1 spot.

 

[dickey moe]

Graham, hands down. Dez and AJG are much bigger threats to Calvin than a broken-down Gronk or Hernandez...Too much competition at QB and RB -- could see at least 5 different players at each position end up being #1.

That's my take on it as well, although I did not see it was NON-PPR when I voted. But overall, if Gronk misses any time at all, it's hard to not like Graham vs. the Field. Calvin would be my second option but I think he has some serious competition this year in Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall, and perhaps AJ Green and Julio Jones.

And who's Watt's competition?! Last year he OBLITERATED all other DLs, and most of the LBs as well! He could have a 20-30% drop in his numbers and still finish #1. I can't say the same for any offensive player with all the competition at each position.

Agree that in IDP leagues it's Watt. Wish I had bid more for him a couple of years ago in a dynasty startup.

 

[Donnybrook]

Graham, hands down. Dez and AJG are much bigger threats to Calvin than a broken-down Gronk or Hernandez...Too much competition at QB and RB -- could see at least 5 different players at each position end up being #1.

Yet, Tony G and Witten outscored him last season. (1.5 PPR league)

 

[Shutout]

Graham, hands down. Dez and AJG are much bigger threats to Calvin than a broken-down Gronk or Hernandez...Too much competition at QB and RB -- could see at least 5 different players at each position end up being #1.

Yet, Tony G and Witten outscored him last season. (1.5 PPR league)

That's true but I think we all kind of figure that the Saints will look much more like the Saints this year vs. that fiasco last year. Didn't Graham also miss a game or so with injury last year also?

 

[Donnybrook]

Graham, hands down. Dez and AJG are much bigger threats to Calvin than a broken-down Gronk or Hernandez...Too much competition at QB and RB -- could see at least 5 different players at each position end up being #1.

Yet, Tony G and Witten outscored him last season. (1.5 PPR league)

That's true but I think we all kind of figure that the Saints will look much more like the Saints this year vs. that fiasco last year. Didn't Graham also miss a game or so with injury last year also?

I believe he missed one game. Some very good less expensive TE picks out there. If it was Graham against the field, I would take the field.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

Shutout, on 04 Jun 2013 - 15:26, said:

matttyl, on 04 Jun 2013 - 15:10, said:

Shutout, on 04 Jun 2013 - 14:50, said:

wodahSShadow, on 04 Jun 2013 - 14:35, said:Graham, hands down. Dez and AJG are much bigger threats to Calvin than a broken-down Gronk or Hernandez...Too much competition at QB and RB -- could see at least 5 different players at each position end up being #1.

That's my take on it as well, although I did not see it was NON-PPR when I voted. But overall, if Gronk misses any time at all, it's hard to not like Graham vs. the Field. Calvin would be my second option but I think he has some serious competition this year in Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall, and perhaps AJ Green and Julio Jones.

And who's Watt's competition?! Last year he OBLITERATED all other DLs, and most of the LBs as well! He could have a 20-30% drop in his numbers and still finish #1. I can't say the same for any offensive player with all the competition at each position.

He's obviously the favorite but you know how it is with DEs, they never seem to pull back to back dominating performances. Going into last year, everyone would have said JPP and Watt "might" have been on the nominee list. The year before that, it would have been Allen and JPP "might have been on the nominee list. Its just the way it goes at the position. When you are that much of a disruptive force, the following year, coaches have spent a lot of time looking at you and planning to take that away. Plus, sometimes teams just play particular divisions that are ripe for the sacking and the numbers get blown up. I would definitely pick Watt as a heavy favorite but then again it wouldn't surprise me one bit if Chandler Jones ended up with the #1 spot.

Yeah, that's my thinking too. The last player to lead the league in sacks in back-to-back years was Reggie White in 1987-88. Obviously Watt also put up good tackle and unbelievable PD numbers last year, but I'm guessing he doesn't match those numbers either in 2013.

 

[matttyl]

Some very good less expensive TE picks out there. If it was Graham against the field, I would take the field.

Exactly my question - one player "vs. the field" at his position. If you had to wager an amount of money that mattered to you, who would it be.

I nearly made that very bet, with $250 on the line taking Watt and allowing the other party to name any 3 DLs he wanted. He wanted the field, I was willing to give him 3 names. We couldn't come to terms.

 

[matttyl]

Yeah, that's my thinking too. The last player to lead the league in sacks in back-to-back years was Reggie White in 1987-88. Obviously Watt also put up good tackle and unbelievable PD numbers last year, but I'm guessing he doesn't match those numbers either in 2013.

But he wouldn't have to match them to still be #1 at this position. He lapped the field last year....

 

[ghostguy123]

Graham, hands down. Dez and AJG are much bigger threats to Calvin than a broken-down Gronk or Hernandez...Too much competition at QB and RB -- could see at least 5 different players at each position end up being #1.

Yet, Tony G and Witten outscored him last season. (1.5 PPR league)

Right, while graham battled injuries and even missed a game, and he was only a couple points behind.

 

[ghostguy123]

Graham, hands down. Dez and AJG are much bigger threats to Calvin than a broken-down Gronk or Hernandez...Too much competition at QB and RB -- could see at least 5 different players at each position end up being #1.

Yet, Tony G and Witten outscored him last season. (1.5 PPR league)

That's true but I think we all kind of figure that the Saints will look much more like the Saints this year vs. that fiasco last year. Didn't Graham also miss a game or so with injury last year also?

I believe he missed one game. Some very good less expensive TE picks out there. If it was Graham against the field, I would take the field.

Well duh, I would take the field against Calvin also.

Just cause someone is the safest best at their position to finish #1, doesnt mean they are the favorite over the entire field.

 

[unckeyherb]

in my .5ppr league Graham finished #1 overall last year. I think he is head and shoulders above the field minus maybe Gronk and if you are looking to own a guy that will separate your team from everyone you play, week in and week out, it'd be him.

 

[Donnybrook]

Graham, hands down. Dez and AJG are much bigger threats to Calvin than a broken-down Gronk or Hernandez...Too much competition at QB and RB -- could see at least 5 different players at each position end up being #1.

Yet, Tony G and Witten outscored him last season. (1.5 PPR league)

That's true but I think we all kind of figure that the Saints will look much more like the Saints this year vs. that fiasco last year. Didn't Graham also miss a game or so with injury last year also?

I believe he missed one game. Some very good less expensive TE picks out there. If it was Graham against the field, I would take the field.

Well duh, I would take the field against Calvin also.

Just cause someone is the safest best at their position to finish #1, doesnt mean they are the favorite over the entire field.

Well duh. When someone says "hands down" it sounds like they think Graham is far and away a better pick than Calvin, etc.

I took Peterson because the Vikings were actually holding Peterson back at the beginning of the season.

 

[jurb26]

I went with Watt. I doubt he puts another season together like last years but the competition at every other position just seems more difficult right now.

 

[ghostguy123]

Graham, hands down. Dez and AJG are much bigger threats to Calvin than a broken-down Gronk or Hernandez...Too much competition at QB and RB -- could see at least 5 different players at each position end up being #1.

Yet, Tony G and Witten outscored him last season. (1.5 PPR league)

That's true but I think we all kind of figure that the Saints will look much more like the Saints this year vs. that fiasco last year. Didn't Graham also miss a game or so with injury last year also?

I believe he missed one game. Some very good less expensive TE picks out there. If it was Graham against the field, I would take the field.

Well duh, I would take the field against Calvin also.

Just cause someone is the safest best at their position to finish #1, doesnt mean they are the favorite over the entire field.

Well duh. When someone says "hands down" it sounds like they think Graham is far and away a better pick than Calvin, etc.

I took Peterson because the Vikings were actually holding Peterson back at the beginning of the season.

I know this, Graham is my #1 player in the FFPC dynasty format. Gronk was #2 before all the injury fiasco stuff, but he is still pretty high.

So yes, I think graham has a much better chance to finish TE-1 than Calvin has to finish WR-1.

And I agree, if I had to pick a RB to be #1 this year I would take Peterson, though I say he has about a 20% chance to finish #1.

But really the "duh" part was regarding taking the field. I would ALWAYS take the field over a player at their position. I can't think of one instance I wouldnt.

 

[Mister CIA]

Other QB: All my chips are on Peyton Manning this year.

 

[Tanner9919]

why is Gronkowski even on this list?? he's out till at least mid/late September, missing probably 3-4 games in the process..

shouldn't you have Jimmy Graham, Gonzalez, Witten instead?

Brees, Calvin, D. Martin, Witten/Gonzalez, Niners or Seattle defense, IMO

I think we were just scratching the surface with Martin last season, he's going to be something very special..

 

[massraider]

why is Gronkowski even on this list?? he's out till at least mid/late September, missing probably 3-4 games in the process..

Someone is gonna read this and assume you know what you are talking about.

 

[Grahamburn]

Tough to say in June. If Gronk is healthy to start the year it's probably him. If he's not it's probably Jimmy Graham. Not much went right for JG last year, but he was still TE1 in most leagues.

Calvin Johnson is a pretty obvious choice. WR1 while scoring only 5 TDs? Ceiling not yet met...

 

[donkshow]

Graham closely followed by Calvin and JJ Watt.

 

[matttyl]

Have to say I'm very, very surprised by the answers here. My vote was Watt. With the recent news on JPP, and multiple DLs now listed as LBs (Suggs, Elvis), and with the domination he had last year I just don't see any competition for him at that position.

Graham has Gronk and Gronk has Graham - and both have Witten and Gonzo and even Vernon Davis.

Calvin would be 2nd on my list, but Dez and Green and call me crazy - maybe even Harvin or D Thomas are some pretty serious competition.

At QB you've got too many guys right at the top, and even a fully healthy RG3 or even Kaep in a perfect (running a ton) might challenge that.

 

[KellysHeroes]

QB is always up for grabs, Calvin is starting to feel some competition as WR1, don't see how any other RB even stands a chance against ADP baring injury, Gronk and Graham weren't even TE1 last yr and IDP is always up for grabs

 

[Adam Harstad]

If we're talking year end point total: Calvin. If we're talking PPG: Gronk.

100% agreed. If I knew Gronk was going to be ready to start the season, he'd be a no-brainer. Since I don't, I voted Calvin. I don't understand the Graham votes at all- Gronk missed five games last year and still came within 9 points of Graham's season-ending total. Like Ghost Rider, even if I knew Gronk was only going to play 14 games and Graham would play 16, I'd still take Gronk to outscore Graham. Given the uncertainty surrounding how much time Gronk will miss (anywhere from 0-6 weeks, at the moment), I couldn't in good conscience pick either TE as "most likely" to finish #1 this year.

 

[PatsWillWin]

The only player I'd take over "the field" is a health Rob Gronkowski. I'd even actually take the real Gronkowski if he had his surgeries a month earlier in the off-season. He is in another stratosphere.

 

[Grahamburn]

If we're talking year end point total: Calvin. If we're talking PPG: Gronk.

100% agreed. If I knew Gronk was going to be ready to start the season, he'd be a no-brainer. Since I don't, I voted Calvin. I don't understand the Graham votes at all- Gronk missed five games last year and still came within 9 points of Graham's season-ending total. Like Ghost Rider, even if I knew Gronk was only going to play 14 games and Graham would play 16, I'd still take Gronk to outscore Graham. Given the uncertainty surrounding how much time Gronk will miss (anywhere from 0-6 weeks, at the moment), I couldn't in good conscience pick either TE as "most likely" to finish #1 this year.

People are expecting the Saints to return to their 2011 form with Payton back. Graham had 99/1,310/11 that season, which if repeated should easily be TE1 if Gronk does indeed miss time early in the season, and with the recent news regarding Gronk it's becoming increasingly more likely he will miss games.

 

[Shutout]

Have to say I'm very, very surprised by the answers here. My vote was Watt. With the recent news on JPP, and multiple DLs now listed as LBs (Suggs, Elvis), and with the domination he had last year I just don't see any competition for him at that position.

Graham has Gronk and Gronk has Graham - and both have Witten and Gonzo and even Vernon Davis.

Calvin would be 2nd on my list, but Dez and Green and call me crazy - maybe even Harvin or D Thomas are some pretty serious competition.

At QB you've got too many guys right at the top, and even a fully healthy RG3 or even Kaep in a perfect (running a ton) might challenge that.

See post #10. DE is just always a jumble and what looks like a world-beater one year most often looks a lot different the next. PDP also noted in post #15 that a player hasn't repeated as a sacks leader since '87-'88. Just seems to be a way that teams adjust and don't allow players to run amuck year after year. Always seems to be something that prevents the ones that have the over the top years from repeating.

If nothing else, the opponent on the schedule (or anyone else's schedule) can shift DEs so much. A really good player like Carlos Dunlap could rack up 6 sacks in a couple of weeks if he happens to play the right team at the right time with a hurting lineman or against a QB that gets in one of those games where he just can't get out of his own way one Sunday. Happens all the time..Just too much uncertainty compared to the offensive guys.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

If we're talking year end point total: Calvin. If we're talking PPG: Gronk.

100% agreed. If I knew Gronk was going to be ready to start the season, he'd be a no-brainer. Since I don't, I voted Calvin. I don't understand the Graham votes at all- Gronk missed five games last year and still came within 9 points of Graham's season-ending total. Like Ghost Rider, even if I knew Gronk was only going to play 14 games and Graham would play 16, I'd still take Gronk to outscore Graham. Given the uncertainty surrounding how much time Gronk will miss (anywhere from 0-6 weeks, at the moment), I couldn't in good conscience pick either TE as "most likely" to finish #1 this year.

People are expecting the Saints to return to their 2011 form with Payton back. Graham had 99/1,310/11 that season, which if repeated should easily be TE1 if Gronk does indeed miss time early in the season, and with the recent news regarding Gronk it's becoming increasingly more likely he will miss games.

In 2011 Graham averaged 12.4 PPG in standard scoring. The past two years Gronk has averaged 14.5. 13 1/2 games of Gronk = 16 games of 2011 Graham, both of which look like reasonable baselines ATM. It's a coinflip, so neither on has a bigger edge over the other than Calvin has over the rest of the pack at WR. QB and RB have a bunch of guys that could all realistically finish #1, and in my (admittedly limited) experience IDP scoring has far too much variance year to year to be predictable at all.

 

[wodahSShadow]

If we're talking year end point total: Calvin. If we're talking PPG: Gronk.

100% agreed. If I knew Gronk was going to be ready to start the season, he'd be a no-brainer. Since I don't, I voted Calvin. I don't understand the Graham votes at all- Gronk missed five games last year and still came within 9 points of Graham's season-ending total. Like Ghost Rider, even if I knew Gronk was only going to play 14 games and Graham would play 16, I'd still take Gronk to outscore Graham. Given the uncertainty surrounding how much time Gronk will miss (anywhere from 0-6 weeks, at the moment), I couldn't in good conscience pick either TE as "most likely" to finish #1 this year.

People are expecting the Saints to return to their 2011 form with Payton back. Graham had 99/1,310/11 that season, which if repeated should easily be TE1 if Gronk does indeed miss time early in the season, and with the recent news regarding Gronk it's becoming increasingly more likely he will miss games.

Furthermore, Graham played much of last year with an injured wrist, and it was quite obvious it was affecting his play.

 

[CalBear]

Can't see how you can answer anyone but Peterson. Is there another RB who has anything like Peterson's combination of skill and situation? He was #1 by 45 points in 2012; Calvin outscored Marshall by 3 points, Graham wasn't even the #1 TE in 2012, nor was Rodgers the #1 QB.

 

[Grahamburn]

Can't see how you can answer anyone but Peterson. Is there another RB who has anything like Peterson's combination of skill and situation? He was #1 by 45 points in 2012; Calvin outscored Marshall by 3 points, Graham wasn't even the #1 TE in 2012, nor was Rodgers the #1 QB.

I keep seeing the bolded. What kind of league wasn't he #1? Brees held out. Payton was suspended. JG injured his wrist and his ankle. I personally think he's a lock for the #1 TE spot. I'll take the unders on Gronk playing 13.5 games and averaging 14.5 ppg.

I also think Doug Martin has a better chance of finishing #1 than Peterson this season, and AP obviously has a lot more competition than anyone else.

 

[CalBear]

Can't see how you can answer anyone but Peterson. Is there another RB who has anything like Peterson's combination of skill and situation? He was #1 by 45 points in 2012; Calvin outscored Marshall by 3 points, Graham wasn't even the #1 TE in 2012, nor was Rodgers the #1 QB.

I keep seeing the bolded. What kind of league wasn't he #1? Brees held out. Payton was suspended. JG injured his wrist and his ankle. I personally think he's a lock for the #1 TE spot. I'll take the unders on Gronk playing 13.5 games and averaging 14.5 ppg.

I also think Doug Martin has a better chance of finishing #1 than Peterson this season, and AP obviously has a lot more competition than anyone else.

Graham outscored Gronkowski by 9 points, playing in 4 more games. You can't claim Graham's injuries as a reason he'll do better in 2013 while simultaneously claiming Gronkowski's injuries as a reason he'll do worse.

And again, Peterson outscored Martin by 45 points and crushed him in every statistical category. If you have the 1.01 pick in your draft are you really going to take Martin? That seems highly dubious.

 

[Grahamburn]

Can't see how you can answer anyone but Peterson. Is there another RB who has anything like Peterson's combination of skill and situation? He was #1 by 45 points in 2012; Calvin outscored Marshall by 3 points, Graham wasn't even the #1 TE in 2012, nor was Rodgers the #1 QB.

I keep seeing the bolded. What kind of league wasn't he #1? Brees held out. Payton was suspended. JG injured his wrist and his ankle. I personally think he's a lock for the #1 TE spot. I'll take the unders on Gronk playing 13.5 games and averaging 14.5 ppg.

I also think Doug Martin has a better chance of finishing #1 than Peterson this season, and AP obviously has a lot more competition than anyone else.

Graham outscored Gronkowski by 9 points, playing in 4 more games. You can't claim Graham's injuries as a reason he'll do better in 2013 while simultaneously claiming Gronkowski's injuries as a reason he'll do worse.

And again, Peterson outscored Martin by 45 points and crushed him in every statistical category. If you have the 1.01 pick in your draft are you really going to take Martin? That seems highly dubious.

Graham played through his injuries. Gronkowski sat after his. Which player is currently more likely to come into 2013 healthy?

What's the track record for 28 year old RBs coming off 398 touch 2,000+ yard seasons in year N+1? I realize he's Adrian Peterson, but Martin has the same potential to be a touch monster, is 4 years younger, and plays on a much better offense with much better TD potential.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Can't see how you can answer anyone but Peterson. Is there another RB who has anything like Peterson's combination of skill and situation? He was #1 by 45 points in 2012; Calvin outscored Marshall by 3 points, Graham wasn't even the #1 TE in 2012, nor was Rodgers the #1 QB.

Adrian Peterson has only finished as the #1 RB once in his six years in the league. Over the first five years of his career, he averaged 265 points per 16 games (non-PPR), a total that's nearly identical to what Foster and Martin put up last year. The last time 265 points would have been good enough to finish as the #1 RB was 1993 (the year Emmitt held out two games). Before that, you have to go back to 1987 (strike year), or 1982 (also a strike year), or 1978. So, throwing out strike years, Adrian Peterson's average season would have been good for a #1 overall finish just twice since the NFL went to a 16-game season.

I would say that Adrian Peterson is more likely to finish as the top RB than any other single RB, but he's certainly not more likely to finish as the top RB than Calvin is to finish as the top WR, who actually has regression working in his favor (both players will put up fewer yards this season, but Calvin's TDs are a near-lock to increase in a big way). Peterson simply doesn't score enough TDs. He's only topped 13 TDs once (18 scores in 2009); not coincidentally, that one time was also the only other time Peterson finished as high as the #2 fantasy RB.

 

[wodahSShadow]

Can't see how you can answer anyone but Peterson. Is there another RB who has anything like Peterson's combination of skill and situation? He was #1 by 45 points in 2012; Calvin outscored Marshall by 3 points, Graham wasn't even the #1 TE in 2012, nor was Rodgers the #1 QB.

I keep seeing the bolded. What kind of league wasn't he #1? Brees held out. Payton was suspended. JG injured his wrist and his ankle. I personally think he's a lock for the #1 TE spot. I'll take the unders on Gronk playing 13.5 games and averaging 14.5 ppg.

I also think Doug Martin has a better chance of finishing #1 than Peterson this season, and AP obviously has a lot more competition than anyone else.

Graham outscored Gronkowski by 9 points, playing in 4 more games. You can't claim Graham's injuries as a reason he'll do better in 2013 while simultaneously claiming Gronkowski's injuries as a reason he'll do worse.

And again, Peterson outscored Martin by 45 points and crushed him in every statistical category. If you have the 1.01 pick in your draft are you really going to take Martin? That seems highly dubious.

2000 yards rushing for any runningback is, by in large, un-repeatable- be it over the span of a career, multiple seasons, much less back-to-back seasons. Outside of Larry Johnson and Dickerson (and this is just of the top of my head), no running back has even come close to rushing for that kind of yardage in back-to-back seasons. So, that said, what are the odds AP bucks the trend?...Not very good. I'd say it is extremely more likely he rushes for 1500-1600 or less given such information.

Conversely, what are the odds Jimmy Graham improves upon his 2012 campaign? Given what others have already mentioned: he (presumably) will be fully healthy, Brees will have a full offseason, and Payton is back, not to mention, he has proven before that he can separate from the TE pack (stat-wise). Sure, if Gronk is healthy it is a different story, but outside of him? A-Hern has yet to prove he can even play half-a-season fully healthy. Witten does not score touchdowns, and has a career reception average of 86 (and that is throwing out his rookie year) -- 24 receptions less than his 2012 season, and thus, highly unlikely to be repeatable. Gonzo has proven the last few seasons that he cannot produce the yardage that it would take to assume the throne. V-Davis is a wildcard, but with only 1 stand-out season in his career and the lack of regular season production since Harbaugh came to town I don't see another 1000k/13 TD season.

WRs and QBs are too deep. And, as others have mentioned, IDP varies wildly.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I'll take the unders on Gronk playing 13.5 games and averaging 14.5 ppg.

It's definitely reasonable to discount Gronk on games played IMO, but why would he be less effective on the field than he's been the last two years once he makes it back? If anything, both he and Hernandez might get more targets / game, as ridiculous as it sounds -- those two plus Amendola are pretty much the only reliable receiving options in NE IMO, and I don't see them turning the clock back to the Antowain Smith / Corey Dillon days and changing into a power running team.

 

[Beerguzzler]

Calvin, not very close either. RBs are a crapshoot. Brees is probably the safest QB to finish top 5. Calvin is a top 3 100% and likely top guy.

 

[Khy]

I voted for Graham mainly because Gronk will likely be hindered at the start of the year. If Gronk was coming in 100% healthy and uninjured I'd probably say Calvin though. My guesses for 1st place at each position though would probably be (assuming 100% health):

QB: Peyton Manning

RB: Jamaal Charles (call it a hunch)

WR: Calvin Johnson

TE: Jimmy Graham

K: Blair Walsh (He was #1 last year and the offense got a decent amount better this year with the addition of Jennings and Patterson, they'll be in FG range a lot more than last season and probably convert just as little because Ponder is mediocre at best).

DE: Charles Johnson

LB: Bobby Wagner

CB: Charles Tillman

S: Johnathan Cyprien (Probably my biggest long shot on this list, he'll be starting from week one, is a ball hawk and one hell of a tackler. And he'll likely be in run support a lot.)

 

[CalBear]

2000 yards rushing for any runningback is, by in large, un-repeatable- be it over the span of a career, multiple seasons, much less back-to-back seasons. Outside of Larry Johnson and Dickerson (and this is just of the top of my head), no running back has even come close to rushing for that kind of yardage in back-to-back seasons. So, that said, what are the odds AP bucks the trend?...Not very good. I'd say it is extremely more likely he rushes for 1500-1600 or less given such information.

Can't see how you can answer anyone but Peterson. Is there another RB who has anything like Peterson's combination of skill and situation? He was #1 by 45 points in 2012; Calvin outscored Marshall by 3 points, Graham wasn't even the #1 TE in 2012, nor was Rodgers the #1 QB.

I keep seeing the bolded. What kind of league wasn't he #1? Brees held out. Payton was suspended. JG injured his wrist and his ankle. I personally think he's a lock for the #1 TE spot. I'll take the unders on Gronk playing 13.5 games and averaging 14.5 ppg.

I also think Doug Martin has a better chance of finishing #1 than Peterson this season, and AP obviously has a lot more competition than anyone else.

Graham outscored Gronkowski by 9 points, playing in 4 more games. You can't claim Graham's injuries as a reason he'll do better in 2013 while simultaneously claiming Gronkowski's injuries as a reason he'll do worse.

And again, Peterson outscored Martin by 45 points and crushed him in every statistical category. If you have the 1.01 pick in your draft are you really going to take Martin? That seems highly dubious.

2000 yards rushing for any runningback is, by in large, un-repeatable- be it over the span of a career, multiple seasons, much less back-to-back seasons. Outside of Larry Johnson and Dickerson (and this is just of the top of my head), no running back has even come close to rushing for that kind of yardage in back-to-back seasons. So, that said, what are the odds AP bucks the trend?...Not very good. I'd say it is extremely more likely he rushes for 1500-1600 or less given such information.

Yes, you are absolutely correct that it's more likely that Peterson will rush for 1500-1600 than rush for 2000. A lot more likely.

And, he's still the odds-on favorite to be the #1 overall RB if he rushes for 1500-1600. Certainly he's more likely to rush for 1500 than Doug Martin is.

Conversely, what are the odds Jimmy Graham improves upon his 2012 campaign? Given what others have already mentioned: he (presumably) will be fully healthy, Brees will have a full offseason, and Payton is back, not to mention, he has proven before that he can separate from the TE pack (stat-wise). Sure, if Gronk is healthy it is a different story, but outside of him? A-Hern has yet to prove he can even play half-a-season fully healthy. Witten does not score touchdowns, and has a career reception average of 86 (and that is throwing out his rookie year) -- 24 receptions less than his 2012 season, and thus, highly unlikely to be repeatable. Gonzo has proven the last few seasons that he cannot produce the yardage that it would take to assume the throne. V-Davis is a wildcard, but with only 1 stand-out season in his career and the lack of regular season production since Harbaugh came to town I don't see another 1000k/13 TD season.

WRs and QBs are too deep. And, as others have mentioned, IDP varies wildly.

Conversely, what are the odds Jimmy Graham improves upon his 2012 campaign? Given what others have already mentioned: he (presumably) will be fully healthy, Brees will have a full offseason, and Payton is back, not to mention, he has proven before that he can separate from the TE pack (stat-wise). Sure, if Gronk is healthy it is a different story, but outside of him? A-Hern has yet to prove he can even play half-a-season fully healthy. Witten does not score touchdowns, and has a career reception average of 86 (and that is throwing out his rookie year) -- 24 receptions less than his 2012 season, and thus, highly unlikely to be repeatable. Gonzo has proven the last few seasons that he cannot produce the yardage that it would take to assume the throne. V-Davis is a wildcard, but with only 1 stand-out season in his career and the lack of regular season production since Harbaugh came to town I don't see another 1000k/13 TD season.

WRs and QBs are too deep. And, as others have mentioned, IDP varies wildly.

We're talking about who's most likely to be #1, so "other than Gronk" doesn't matter. Jimmy Graham is not the best player at his position, not in the NFL, not in fantasy, so he's not the most likely to end up #1. Frankly, he has near zero chance of ending up #1 unless Gronk is limited by injury. Whereas if Peterson plays 16 games it's hard to imagine anyone topping him.

 

[Concept Coop]

If we're talking year end point total: Calvin. If we're talking PPG: Gronk.

100% agreed. If I knew Gronk was going to be ready to start the season, he'd be a no-brainer. Since I don't, I voted Calvin. I don't understand the Graham votes at all- Gronk missed five games last year and still came within 9 points of Graham's season-ending total. Like Ghost Rider, even if I knew Gronk was only going to play 14 games and Graham would play 16, I'd still take Gronk to outscore Graham. Given the uncertainty surrounding how much time Gronk will miss (anywhere from 0-6 weeks, at the moment), I couldn't in good conscience pick either TE as "most likely" to finish #1 this year.

This.

 

[CalBear]

Can't see how you can answer anyone but Peterson. Is there another RB who has anything like Peterson's combination of skill and situation? He was #1 by 45 points in 2012; Calvin outscored Marshall by 3 points, Graham wasn't even the #1 TE in 2012, nor was Rodgers the #1 QB.

Adrian Peterson has only finished as the #1 RB once in his six years in the league. Over the first five years of his career, he averaged 265 points per 16 games (non-PPR), a total that's nearly identical to what Foster and Martin put up last year. The last time 265 points would have been good enough to finish as the #1 RB was 1993 (the year Emmitt held out two games). Before that, you have to go back to 1987 (strike year), or 1982 (also a strike year), or 1978. So, throwing out strike years, Adrian Peterson's average season would have been good for a #1 overall finish just twice since the NFL went to a 16-game season.

If you want to play that game, Calvin Johnson has averaged 187 points over the first six years of his career, and you have to go back to 1979 to find a year that would have led the league (excepting strike 1982).

I would say that Adrian Peterson is more likely to finish as the top RB than any other single RB, but he's certainly not more likely to finish as the top RB than Calvin is to finish as the top WR, who actually has regression working in his favor (both players will put up fewer yards this season, but Calvin's TDs are a near-lock to increase in a big way). Peterson simply doesn't score enough TDs. He's only topped 13 TDs once (18 scores in 2009); not coincidentally, that one time was also the only other time Peterson finished as high as the #2 fantasy RB.

"He's only topped 13 TDs once" is about the silliest thing I've seen you post, considering that he's had exactly 13 TDs four times. Did you forget about multiple endpoint fallacies when they made you staff?

 

[CalBear]

"He's only topped 13 TDs once" is about the silliest thing I've seen you post, considering that he's had exactly 13 TDs four times. Did you forget about multiple endpoint fallacies when they made you staff?

Here are the list of RBs with 5+ seasons of more than 12 rushing+receiving TDs (choosing the other side of the endpoint):

S.Alexander (5)

M.Allen (6)

J.Brown (5)

M.Faulk (5)

A.Peterson (5)

B.Sanders (5)

E.Smith (7)

L.Tomlinson (8)

Since, excepting Alexander, everyone else on that list is in the HOF, or will be, I think it's safe to say that Peterson historically scores TDs as well as the greatest RBs in history.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Can't see how you can answer anyone but Peterson. Is there another RB who has anything like Peterson's combination of skill and situation? He was #1 by 45 points in 2012; Calvin outscored Marshall by 3 points, Graham wasn't even the #1 TE in 2012, nor was Rodgers the #1 QB.

Adrian Peterson has only finished as the #1 RB once in his six years in the league. Over the first five years of his career, he averaged 265 points per 16 games (non-PPR), a total that's nearly identical to what Foster and Martin put up last year. The last time 265 points would have been good enough to finish as the #1 RB was 1993 (the year Emmitt held out two games). Before that, you have to go back to 1987 (strike year), or 1982 (also a strike year), or 1978. So, throwing out strike years, Adrian Peterson's average season would have been good for a #1 overall finish just twice since the NFL went to a 16-game season.

If you want to play that game, Calvin Johnson has averaged 187 points over the first six years of his career, and you have to go back to 1979 to find a year that would have led the league (excepting strike 1982).

Calvin also has twice as many #1 overall finishes than Peterson. The lesser of Calvin's last two seasons is still the best fantasy season by any receiver since Moss in 2007. And, as I said, regression is actually working in Calvin's favor, given the historically low TD-per-yard total.

I'm not saying that Peterson isn't the leader in the clubhouse to finish as RB1. I'm just disputing that he's more likely to manage the feat than Calvin.

"He's only topped 13 TDs once" is about the silliest thing I've seen you post, considering that he's had exactly 13 TDs four times. Did you forget about multiple endpoint fallacies when they made you staff?

Here are the list of RBs with 5+ seasons of more than 12 rushing+receiving TDs (choosing the other side of the endpoint):

S.Alexander (5)

M.Allen (6)

J.Brown (5)

M.Faulk (5)

A.Peterson (5)

B.Sanders (5)

E.Smith (7)

L.Tomlinson (8)

Since, excepting Alexander, everyone else on that list is in the HOF, or will be, I think it's safe to say that Peterson historically scores TDs as well as the greatest RBs in history.

No, I didn't forget about multiple endpoints. Yes, I deliberately gerrymandered the cutoffs, completely aware that Peterson had scored exactly 13 a bunch of times. No, I don't think this is unfair. Your list would be totally relevant if we were going to guess who had the most points over a lengthy span, but we're talking about who is going to lead the league in fantasy points over ONE YEAR, and Adrian Peterson's touchdown totals for his career suggest that's less likely. His 5-year touchdown totals are very impressive, but over the last 10 years, here have been the league-leading TD totals on a year-by-year basis: 17, 20, 18, 18, 20, 18, 31, 28, 20, 27. If Adrian Peterson gets 13 TDs again, like he has in 4 out of his 6 seasons, then historically speaking, he'll probably be giving up a half dozen TDs to whoever winds up leading the league. That's going to severely hamper his chances of leading the league in fantasy points.