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What RB(s) will break 300 carries? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter agame2323
- Start date
johnadams
Footballguy
Lynch and LeVeon Bell will get close and could surpass though Bell's one gamer might get in the way.
Of the new crop, I could see Hyde and Jeremy Hill. Foster if he stays healthy. Lacy maybe makes a jump to 300. Murray should get close as well. If Gurley is good to go full speed in game one, he has a chance to get there.
Of the new crop, I could see Hyde and Jeremy Hill. Foster if he stays healthy. Lacy maybe makes a jump to 300. Murray should get close as well. If Gurley is good to go full speed in game one, he has a chance to get there.
Spin
Footballguy
agame2323
Footballguy
VaTerp
Footballguy
I agree that a healthy ADP and Shady are the only two likely to hit the 300 mark.
In addition to Lynch I think CJ Anderson, Forte, and Lacy have a chance as well. Maybe Morris but everything I'm hearing from Skins camp is that they really like Matt Jones physicality and versatility and want to get him involved in the offense. Outside shot for Murray as well if Chip gets to run as many plays as he wants. McCoy was over 300 last year. Obviously Mathews is a high quality backup but I could see it happening. And I could see M. Gordon approaching 300 as well.
bostonfred
Footballguy
I don't know about 300, but some potential bell cow guys who could flourish if they keep their yards per attempt up are
Peterson
Bell
Lynch
Lacy
Mccoy
Cj Anderson
Alfred Morris
Carlos Hyde
Forsett
Yeldon
Blount
Peterson
Bell
Lynch
Lacy
Mccoy
Cj Anderson
Alfred Morris
Carlos Hyde
Forsett
Yeldon
Blount
johnadams
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
georg013
Footballguy
Actually, I am predicting that Gio Bernard won't make nearly the impact on rushing attempts most people think he will. That is with Gio playing all 16 and I stand by it.
smapdi
Footballguy
I would think Shady McCoy is almost a lead pipe lock for 300+ carries. He's coming off back to back 300 carry seasons in PHI so he has the ability to survive the grind. Ryan is going to lean heavily on the run game and McCoy is clearly their best RB; FJax is 34 and is going to see a lot less reps then previous seasons when Spiller and him were serving a 2 headed role.
buck naked
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
AP. Mccoy. Maybe one or both.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
McCoy, Peterson, and Lynch seem to have the history and situation to indicate 300 carries would be possible. Maybe Alf? He has done it before, wont get his touches in the pass game to offset it either. If the Skins D is any better and they can protect some leads, he could get there. If I had to guess, I would say only one of those guys breaks 300 this year.
Stealthycat
Footballguy
Blount for 300 carries? is that realistic ?
Agree. His pace for the last 6 games when both were playing was 291. In those games, Cincy ran for 800 yards against teams who, on average, gave up 558. I they're winning games, they're going to run a lot.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Being lazy, how many broke 300 last year?
-jb-
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
jurb26
Footballguy
Best chance to get 300+ carries;
McCoy - what else is Buf going to do? Buf QBs are terrible, the Oline is solid and the D is awesome.
Peterson - I'm concerned about a year off at his age, but this guy isn't human. Minn will ride him.
Could do it, but less likely;
Murray - I see a lot of carries because they will run so many plays. Concern is how much of a rotation they use and injury history.
Lynch - I'm not sure how much Sea will open things up this year with Graham in town. Lynch should still see a ton of carries, 300 might be a stretch but it's possible.
Hill - hard to see it with Gio in the fold but this is a Hue Jackson offense.
McCoy - what else is Buf going to do? Buf QBs are terrible, the Oline is solid and the D is awesome.
Peterson - I'm concerned about a year off at his age, but this guy isn't human. Minn will ride him.
Could do it, but less likely;
Murray - I see a lot of carries because they will run so many plays. Concern is how much of a rotation they use and injury history.
Lynch - I'm not sure how much Sea will open things up this year with Graham in town. Lynch should still see a ton of carries, 300 might be a stretch but it's possible.
Hill - hard to see it with Gio in the fold but this is a Hue Jackson offense.
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Shutout
Footballguy
I would add CJ Anderson to that list and that is probably going to cover it.
If anyone wanted a really dark horse in the race, maybe JSTEW or Rashad Jennings if they stay healthy. That's likely a long, long shot but the potential would be there if we happen to look up and say "hey, that guy played all 16 this year."
bostonfred
Footballguy
Nobody had more than 100 carries for the Patriots in 2014, but Blount wasnt on the team for the first 11 games. Once he played for the pats, he had games with 12, 10, 20, 8, 10, and then 3, 30 and 14 carries in the playoffs. That's a pace for 214 carries, 1040 yards and 6 tds. Not all that exciting.
The pats haven't had a back get 300 carries since Corey Dillon, either. Again, bad news.
Now let me explain why I think he has a shot.
1) Blount may be the best back they've had since Dillon. Believe it ot not, Blount averages 4.9 yards per carry for the pats, slightly better than his career 4.6 average. Before you say that that's skewed by that big game against the Colts in the 2014 playoffs, he averaged 5.0 in the 2013 regular season, 5.9 in the 2013 playoffs (another monster game against the Colts), 4.7 in the 2014 regular season and only 4.0 in the 2014 playoffs. And yes, he does play the Colts again this year.
2) the patriots leading running backs since Dillon have been Sammy Morris, Lawrence Maroney, bjge, Stevan Ridley, and shane vereen (who led the team with 96 carries last year). The best of the bunch by far was Ridley, who, prior to his fumbling problems, had 290 carries.
3) when the Patriots have a good back, they use him. They've fluctuated from low 400s to mid 500s in carries a season, depending who was running for them and who was available on offense. If they're missing Brady for four games, they could skew towards 500+ again this year.
4) the Patriots don't have a rbbc yet. Unlike previous years, where they've had shane vereen, Danny Woodhead and Kevin Faulk, there really isn't an established receiving back who they have to get on the field. White, gray, cadet and Bolden may all get carries, but they'll have to earn time. So it's reasonable to expect Blount to be in on more downs than last year.
5) he's finally entering a season as the starter. Last year he was the number one guy - but not until late November. The year before that, Ridley entered the season as starter. Blount's numbers are skewed by some anomalies - three carries against the Ravens in a playoff game they never led until the final score and used the eligible ineligible packages, 30 against the Colts in a playoff game they never trailed. He played sparingly in a late season blowout win against the dolphins and a meaningless game against the bills. A full season as starter should smooth that out.
6) he should be a little less game plan dependent this year. He has more experience in the system than gray, cadet or white, so he's less likely to be pulled on passing downs the way he was with vereen.
7) the Patriots defense needs a ball control offense. They have a great defensive front seven, but their secondary is a nightmare. The best way to mask those problems is to keep the big men fresh. I expect them to establish the run with their big guy early in most games.
8) ridley and Blount combined for 334 carries in 2013. Yes, it was split between two guys, but Blount took over the job with his 5.0 ypc almost as much as ridley (4.3) lost it. If Blount gets most of the big man carries this year, in a year where i expect 500+ total carries with a little more big back and less receiving back usage than in the past, then 300 is definitely achievable.
TheDemon
Footballguy
I'm thinking JSTEW has a shot, as well. I know the "healthy time" sample size is limited, but there seems to be some kind of corner turned.
Didn't really think about Blount, just given his spotty history between the ears. I think the main things standing between him and a true workhorse load are probably what appear to be crippling issues with remaining motivated and staying out of the doghouse. If he can clear those hurdles, he should have clear sailing. Might be easier said than done, though.
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